7 ms·

Do you expect the demand for Tesla's robotaxis to be high? I don't see it.

lacker 9mo ago
If they actually worked right now, the demand would be high. Demand is certainly high for Waymos. Even if they worked worse than a Waymo I think the demand would still be very high. But it's hard to tell if (or when) it will work well enough to actually be a real product.
- riffraff 9mo ago
  that's why I said "Tesla's robotaxis". They have not proven they are waymo level or near it, or that they will ever be there given the lack of lidar.
- Deklomalo 9mo ago
  The question is what 'high' means in context of revenue. Uber, the globally available taxi company, is valued 8 times less than tesla. If you are now able to kill all the costs for the taxi driving and reduce the cost for the car also, how much revenue is left? Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. The margin of that company can't be that much more than a company like uber. And uber itself will also invest in this, as every other car company. XPeng and co everyone who is building or working on this, will not just idly looking and waiting for tesla to just take 'whatever this cake' will look like. For me it becomes a complet game changer if it becomes so reliable so extrem reliable, that i can order a car at night, a fresh bed / couch is then in the car and i can lie down while it drives me a few hundred kilometers away.
  - mustyoshi 9mo ago
    >Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. The margin of that company can't be that much more than a company like uber. This just isn't true. If you're a woman, choosing a slightly more expensive robotaxi over a ride share where you might meet your end is a valid choice.
    - Deklomalo 9mo ago
      Robotaxis as a business has to be lower than a taxi as long as robotaxis are not known for being the better driver. And woman have used taxis plenty of times especially because or for security. So I don't think your argument is very strong.
    - iamleppert 9mo ago
      At the end of the day, you're still trusting a misogynistic man to get you from point A to point B. One drives the car and works as a gig worker and wears a flannel shirt, and the other sits in an office at Waymo HQ, wears a patagonia vest. Both are still part of the patriarchy and have very little interest in making sure you're safe, unless there's money to be made.
      - Deklomalo 9mo ago
        [dead]
      - 542354234235 9mo ago
        As much as I want to assume this is a trolling response, I'll pretend it is in good faith. The person you replied to is not speaking about nebulous dangers of "the patriarchy". They are talking about the risk of being verbally harassed, or physically/sexually assaulted by the driver during or directly after the ride. https://www.wctv.tv/2026/01/14/rideshare-driver-arrested-after-allegedly-assaulting-woman-he-picked-up-tallahassee-bar/ https://www.wctv.tv/2026/01/14/rideshare-driver-arrested-aft... https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/nashville/woman-shares-story-after-being-assaulted-by-nashville-rideshare-driver/ https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/nashville/woman-shares-...
      - mdavid626 9mo ago
        What the hell are you talking about?
  - vdm 9mo ago
    > has to be cheaper than a normal taxi ... plus 24/7 shifts of human drivers
  - apublicfrog 9mo ago
    > Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. I'm not sure that's true. Self serve checkouts are killing the checkout. Washing machines killed the washing board. Something can be the same price or dearer if it's more convenient.
    - anthem2025 9mo ago
      [dead]
    - BadBadJellyBean 9mo ago
      That comparison has the problem that it is not comparable. A robo taxi is not much different from human taxi. I can not see much of an improvement for the rider. Whereas washing machines are an incredible time saver and self checkouts can be faster (especially if you use these little hand scanners).
      - 1718627440 9mo ago
        > self checkouts can be faster Are you sure? They are great for reducing personnel cost for the shop operator, but a cashier scans so much faster than you do. If you want to optimize for speed, the human cashier would still be better.
- MetaWhirledPeas 9mo ago
  > Even if they worked worse than a Waymo I think the demand would still be very high. They may already work better than a Waymo. It's hard to tell. It's certainly there using the public version of FSD. There's awkwardness, but the same can be said of Waymo. What I don't know is how many mandatory edge cases remain to be handled before they can set it free.
- LandoCalrissian 9mo ago
  Probably not a great strategy to piss off every blue voter in the country and then try to setup a business in cities.
JasonBorne 9mo ago
Of course it will be high. Transit is a huge market. They would just need a small share of Uber, lyft, regular taxis, public transit.
- CursedSilicon 9mo ago
  Private taxis don't compete with public transit. They operate in completely different spheres
  - dddgghhbbfblk 9mo ago
    As a blanket statement that's not true with NYC being the most obvious (but not the only) counterexample.
    - jrflowers 9mo ago
      Do you commute to and from work every day by taxi in NYC
      - shalmanese 9mo ago
        Early on in Uber's life, I went to a presentation they held where they showed there was a U shaped curve by income of who used Uber. Upper middle class people used them as discretionary entertainment vehicles but Uber had a substantial lower class population using them as necessary transport when working graveyard shifts in locations public transit didn't go. So yes, there's a surprising contingent of people who commute to work every single working day using hire cars.
        jrflowers 9mo ago
        > Upper middle class people used them as discretionary entertainment vehicles but Uber had a substantial lower class population using them as necessary transport when working graveyard shifts in locations public transit didn't go. This is information that suggests that Uber does not compete with public transit
trhway 9mo ago
demand for any robotaxis will be high. Just look at the number of Uber drivers whom the robotaxis will replace. Plus leased robotaxis or personal/reserved ones - whatever shape it'd take replacing at least some percentage of personal cars. There is only a "small" issue - to make those robotaxis, i.e. the self-driving system for them. Almost 20 years in, Google/Waymo is way ahead of everybody and is still not there yet (i believe we will get there anyday now - which maybe next year or in 10 years - especially giving all the avalanche of investment in AI. Though i'd have expected that 4+ years in we'd see a lot of autonomous platforms/weapons in Ukraine, yet it hasn't happen too yet)
- bandrami 9mo ago
  That means a lot more capex though (as it is drivers bring their own cars) and I'm not sure how much enthusiasm there is for more of that right now
  - trhway 9mo ago
    Nothing prevents the drivers to long-term lease a robocar like a personal vehicle and send it to work for Uber during the time when they don't need it. Currently an Uber driver can drive at any given moment only one car for Uber. With robocars, a driver can invest in 2, 3 or more robocars and send them to work for Uber. Similar to how people buy multiple properties to rent out on AirBnB.
Cthulhu_ 9mo ago
I don't see the demand for their robots to be high either tbh, but they're betting on them. It's not going to work.
- mustyoshi 9mo ago
  Hyundai is partnering with Boston Dynamics to deploy 30k robots a year. Amazon is looking to replace 600k employees over the next decade. Why do you believe demand for humanoids isn't high?
  - boogrpants 9mo ago
    "...demand for their robots..." Demand for Tesla products is tanking. Demand for humanoid robots not made by Tesla may rocket. Who knows.
    - lambdaone 9mo ago
      If the humanoid robots are no better than the cars, it's unlikely. Unitree and Boston Dynamics are pretty much there in terms of solving the hardware problem, and the rest is software and the hardware manufacturing learning curve. The Chinese are massively out-manufacturing Tesla in the electric car market - would you bet on Tesla somehow being better than the Chinese at manufacturing? The rest as I said is software; given Tesla's consistent lack of success in "Full Self-Driving", would you bet on them outengineering the rest of the world in the software aspect of robotics?
      - njarboe 9mo ago
        Tesla's biggest factory is in China.
        herbturbo 9mo ago
        Tesla is good at building big factories. The Cybertruck (total sales ~46k) factory was designed to build 250k units a year and later 125k. Meanwhile BYD outsells Tesla in China and globally.

If they actually worked right now, the demand would be high. Demand is certainly high for Waymos. Even if they worked worse than a Waymo I think the demand would still be very high. But it's hard to tell if (or when) it will work well enough to actually be a real product.

riffraff 9mo ago
that's why I said "Tesla's robotaxis". They have not proven they are waymo level or near it, or that they will ever be there given the lack of lidar.
Deklomalo 9mo ago
The question is what 'high' means in context of revenue. Uber, the globally available taxi company, is valued 8 times less than tesla. If you are now able to kill all the costs for the taxi driving and reduce the cost for the car also, how much revenue is left? Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. The margin of that company can't be that much more than a company like uber. And uber itself will also invest in this, as every other car company. XPeng and co everyone who is building or working on this, will not just idly looking and waiting for tesla to just take 'whatever this cake' will look like. For me it becomes a complet game changer if it becomes so reliable so extrem reliable, that i can order a car at night, a fresh bed / couch is then in the car and i can lie down while it drives me a few hundred kilometers away.
- mustyoshi 9mo ago
  >Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. The margin of that company can't be that much more than a company like uber. This just isn't true. If you're a woman, choosing a slightly more expensive robotaxi over a ride share where you might meet your end is a valid choice.
  - Deklomalo 9mo ago
    Robotaxis as a business has to be lower than a taxi as long as robotaxis are not known for being the better driver. And woman have used taxis plenty of times especially because or for security. So I don't think your argument is very strong.
  - iamleppert 9mo ago
    At the end of the day, you're still trusting a misogynistic man to get you from point A to point B. One drives the car and works as a gig worker and wears a flannel shirt, and the other sits in an office at Waymo HQ, wears a patagonia vest. Both are still part of the patriarchy and have very little interest in making sure you're safe, unless there's money to be made.
    - Deklomalo 9mo ago
      [dead]
    - 542354234235 9mo ago
      As much as I want to assume this is a trolling response, I'll pretend it is in good faith. The person you replied to is not speaking about nebulous dangers of "the patriarchy". They are talking about the risk of being verbally harassed, or physically/sexually assaulted by the driver during or directly after the ride. https://www.wctv.tv/2026/01/14/rideshare-driver-arrested-after-allegedly-assaulting-woman-he-picked-up-tallahassee-bar/ https://www.wctv.tv/2026/01/14/rideshare-driver-arrested-aft... https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/nashville/woman-shares-story-after-being-assaulted-by-nashville-rideshare-driver/ https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/nashville/woman-shares-...
    - mdavid626 9mo ago
      What the hell are you talking about?
- vdm 9mo ago
  > has to be cheaper than a normal taxi ... plus 24/7 shifts of human drivers
- apublicfrog 9mo ago
  > Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. I'm not sure that's true. Self serve checkouts are killing the checkout. Washing machines killed the washing board. Something can be the same price or dearer if it's more convenient.
  - anthem2025 9mo ago
    [dead]
  - BadBadJellyBean 9mo ago
    That comparison has the problem that it is not comparable. A robo taxi is not much different from human taxi. I can not see much of an improvement for the rider. Whereas washing machines are an incredible time saver and self checkouts can be faster (especially if you use these little hand scanners).
    - 1718627440 9mo ago
      > self checkouts can be faster Are you sure? They are great for reducing personnel cost for the shop operator, but a cashier scans so much faster than you do. If you want to optimize for speed, the human cashier would still be better.
MetaWhirledPeas 9mo ago
> Even if they worked worse than a Waymo I think the demand would still be very high. They may already work better than a Waymo. It's hard to tell. It's certainly there using the public version of FSD. There's awkwardness, but the same can be said of Waymo. What I don't know is how many mandatory edge cases remain to be handled before they can set it free.
LandoCalrissian 9mo ago
Probably not a great strategy to piss off every blue voter in the country and then try to setup a business in cities.

JasonBorne 9mo ago

Of course it will be high. Transit is a huge market. They would just need a small share of Uber, lyft, regular taxis, public transit.

CursedSilicon 9mo ago
Private taxis don't compete with public transit. They operate in completely different spheres
- dddgghhbbfblk 9mo ago
  As a blanket statement that's not true with NYC being the most obvious (but not the only) counterexample.
  - jrflowers 9mo ago
    Do you commute to and from work every day by taxi in NYC
    - shalmanese 9mo ago
      Early on in Uber's life, I went to a presentation they held where they showed there was a U shaped curve by income of who used Uber. Upper middle class people used them as discretionary entertainment vehicles but Uber had a substantial lower class population using them as necessary transport when working graveyard shifts in locations public transit didn't go. So yes, there's a surprising contingent of people who commute to work every single working day using hire cars.
      - jrflowers 9mo ago
        > Upper middle class people used them as discretionary entertainment vehicles but Uber had a substantial lower class population using them as necessary transport when working graveyard shifts in locations public transit didn't go. This is information that suggests that Uber does not compete with public transit

trhway 9mo ago

demand for any robotaxis will be high. Just look at the number of Uber drivers whom the robotaxis will replace. Plus leased robotaxis or personal/reserved ones - whatever shape it'd take replacing at least some percentage of personal cars. There is only a "small" issue - to make those robotaxis, i.e. the self-driving system for them. Almost 20 years in, Google/Waymo is way ahead of everybody and is still not there yet (i believe we will get there anyday now - which maybe next year or in 10 years - especially giving all the avalanche of investment in AI. Though i'd have expected that 4+ years in we'd see a lot of autonomous platforms/weapons in Ukraine, yet it hasn't happen too yet)

bandrami 9mo ago
That means a lot more capex though (as it is drivers bring their own cars) and I'm not sure how much enthusiasm there is for more of that right now
- trhway 9mo ago
  Nothing prevents the drivers to long-term lease a robocar like a personal vehicle and send it to work for Uber during the time when they don't need it. Currently an Uber driver can drive at any given moment only one car for Uber. With robocars, a driver can invest in 2, 3 or more robocars and send them to work for Uber. Similar to how people buy multiple properties to rent out on AirBnB.

Cthulhu_ 9mo ago

I don't see the demand for their robots to be high either tbh, but they're betting on them. It's not going to work.

mustyoshi 9mo ago
Hyundai is partnering with Boston Dynamics to deploy 30k robots a year. Amazon is looking to replace 600k employees over the next decade. Why do you believe demand for humanoids isn't high?
- boogrpants 9mo ago
  "...demand for their robots..." Demand for Tesla products is tanking. Demand for humanoid robots not made by Tesla may rocket. Who knows.
  - lambdaone 9mo ago
    If the humanoid robots are no better than the cars, it's unlikely. Unitree and Boston Dynamics are pretty much there in terms of solving the hardware problem, and the rest is software and the hardware manufacturing learning curve. The Chinese are massively out-manufacturing Tesla in the electric car market - would you bet on Tesla somehow being better than the Chinese at manufacturing? The rest as I said is software; given Tesla's consistent lack of success in "Full Self-Driving", would you bet on them outengineering the rest of the world in the software aspect of robotics?
    - njarboe 9mo ago
      Tesla's biggest factory is in China.
      - herbturbo 9mo ago
        Tesla is good at building big factories. The Cybertruck (total sales ~46k) factory was designed to build 250k units a year and later 125k. Meanwhile BYD outsells Tesla in China and globally.