5 ms·

> the US's per capita consumption of meat That number seemed unreal to me, so I looked it up. I think it represents the total pre-processing weight, not the ac

by Aurornis 10mo ago

> the US's per capita consumption of meat That number seemed unreal to me, so I looked it up. I think it represents the total pre-processing weight, not the actual meat meat consumption. From Wikipedia: > As an example of the difference, for 2002, when the FAO figure for US per capita meat consumption was 124.48 kg (274 lb 7 oz), the USDA estimate of US per capita loss-adjusted meat consumption was 62.6 kg (138 lb) Processing, cutting into sellable pieces, drying, and spoilage/loss mean the amount of meat consumed is about half of that number.

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
Interestingly, ~12% of humans in the US are responsible for ~50% of beef consumption. > The US is the biggest consumer of beef in the world, but, according to new research, it’s actually a small percentage of people who are doing most of the eating. A recent study shows that on any given day, just 12% of people in the US account for half of all beef consumed in the US. > Men and people between the ages of 50 and 65 were more likely to be in what the researchers dubbed as “disproportionate beef eaters”, defined as those who, based on a recommended daily 2,200 calorie-diet, eat more than four ounces – the rough equivalent of more than one hamburger – daily. The study analyzed one-day dietary snapshots from over 10,000 US adults over a four-year period. White people were among those more likely to eat more beef, compared with other racial and ethnic groups like Black and Asian Americans. Older adults, college graduates, and those who looked up MyPlate, the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) online nutritional educational campaign, were far less likely to consume a disproportionate amount of beef. High steaks society: who are the 12% of people consuming half of all beef in the US? - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usda-climate-crisis-meat-consumption https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usd... - October 20th, 2023 Demographic and Socioeconomic Correlates of Disproportionate Beef Consumption among US Adults in an Age of Global Warming - https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/17/3795 https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/17/3795 | https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15173795 https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15173795 - August 2023 (my observation of this is that we can sunset quite a bit of US beef production and still be fine from a food supply and security perspective, as consumption greatly exceeds healthy consumption limits in the aggregate)
- psunavy03 10mo ago
  [flagged]
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    I'm simply observing the trajectories we're on due to climate change, input costs, and the aging out of beef cattle ranchers (in this context, projected beef supply, cost, and downstream consumption patterns from those inputs). We simply have to do nothing as the economics shrinks beef herds over time, pushing prices up. Think consumption death spiral as the the affordability of beef dwindles. Beef ranchers are uncertain of the future, so they are sending more heads to slaughter, capitalizing on very favorable prices, versus expanding their herds for the future. What does this do to future herd sizes and therefore supply and cost to the consumer? Add the gestational period of cattle to that mental model. When these processing plants close, how long will it take to build new ones or start mothballed ones back up if herd sizes increase years from now? Will you be able to find communities who will accept these plants again? Where will you find the workers? More US Beef Plants May Close as Cattle Herds Keep Shrinking - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-19/more-us-beef-plants-may-close-as-cattle-herds-keep-tightening https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-19/more-us-b... | https://archive.today/vccTl https://archive.today/vccTl - December 19th, 2025 What happens to a small Nebraska town when 3,200 workers lose their jobs - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46362052 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46362052 - December 2025 ("Tyson says it’s closing the plant [Lexington, Nebraska] to “right-size” its beef business after a historically low cattle herd in the U.S. and the company’s expected loss of $600 million on beef production next fiscal year." Beef prices have soared in the US — and not just during grilling season - https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-record-high-cattle-steak-cows-e9fc33bbaec6a76fb243e277bbbb7c0e https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-record-high-cattle-st... - July 21st, 2025 Droughts, complicated by climate change, result in US beef herd hitting historic low - https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/03/13/droughts-complicated-by-climate-change-lead-to-historically-dwindling-us-beef-herd/ https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/03/13/droughts-complicat... - March 13th, 2024 U.S. Cattle Inventory Smallest in 73 years - https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smallest-in-73-years https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smalles... - February 5th, 2024 (think in systems)
NewJazz 10mo ago
Drying doesn't mean anything... The nutrients are still there you're only really losing water. What evidence do you have that the loss adjusted numbers have gone down while the preprocessed numbers have gone up so dramatically?
- kulahan 10mo ago
  Well if it’s based on weight, and one of the steps is to reduce the weight significantly… Point being someone eating a couple bags of jerky over a workday would probably count as having eaten literal pounds of beef, despite consumed weight being much lower. Water is noncompressible and makes your stomach full very quickly.
  - quietbritishjim 10mo ago
    > Point being someone eating a couple bags of jerky over a workday would probably count as having eaten literal pounds of beef For the purposes of this conversation, about the nutritional effect of your diet, that seems like a fair way to put it.
- Aurornis 10mo ago
  > Drying doesn't mean anything... The nutrients are still there you're only really losing water. The problem with the number is that people see it and imagine pounds of meat like they see at the grocery store, but it's measuring pounds of meat that go into the meat processing plant. > What evidence do you have that the loss adjusted numbers have gone down while the preprocessed numbers have gone up so dramatically? No, the two numbers show the ratio. The "pounds of meat consumed per person" from the FAO is a pre-processed weight. The pounds of meat consumed per person from the USDA is the end-user weight. It's about half of the FAO number.

toomuchtodo 10mo ago

Interestingly, ~12% of humans in the US are responsible for ~50% of beef consumption. > The US is the biggest consumer of beef in the world, but, according to new research, it’s actually a small percentage of people who are doing most of the eating. A recent study shows that on any given day, just 12% of people in the US account for half of all beef consumed in the US. > Men and people between the ages of 50 and 65 were more likely to be in what the researchers dubbed as “disproportionate beef eaters”, defined as those who, based on a recommended daily 2,200 calorie-diet, eat more than four ounces – the rough equivalent of more than one hamburger – daily. The study analyzed one-day dietary snapshots from over 10,000 US adults over a four-year period. White people were among those more likely to eat more beef, compared with other racial and ethnic groups like Black and Asian Americans. Older adults, college graduates, and those who looked up MyPlate, the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) online nutritional educational campaign, were far less likely to consume a disproportionate amount of beef. High steaks society: who are the 12% of people consuming half of all beef in the US? - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usda-climate-crisis-meat-consumption https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usd... - October 20th, 2023 Demographic and Socioeconomic Correlates of Disproportionate Beef Consumption among US Adults in an Age of Global Warming - https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/17/3795 https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/17/3795 | https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15173795 https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15173795 - August 2023 (my observation of this is that we can sunset quite a bit of US beef production and still be fine from a food supply and security perspective, as consumption greatly exceeds healthy consumption limits in the aggregate)

psunavy03 10mo ago
[flagged]
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  I'm simply observing the trajectories we're on due to climate change, input costs, and the aging out of beef cattle ranchers (in this context, projected beef supply, cost, and downstream consumption patterns from those inputs). We simply have to do nothing as the economics shrinks beef herds over time, pushing prices up. Think consumption death spiral as the the affordability of beef dwindles. Beef ranchers are uncertain of the future, so they are sending more heads to slaughter, capitalizing on very favorable prices, versus expanding their herds for the future. What does this do to future herd sizes and therefore supply and cost to the consumer? Add the gestational period of cattle to that mental model. When these processing plants close, how long will it take to build new ones or start mothballed ones back up if herd sizes increase years from now? Will you be able to find communities who will accept these plants again? Where will you find the workers? More US Beef Plants May Close as Cattle Herds Keep Shrinking - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-19/more-us-beef-plants-may-close-as-cattle-herds-keep-tightening https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-19/more-us-b... | https://archive.today/vccTl https://archive.today/vccTl - December 19th, 2025 What happens to a small Nebraska town when 3,200 workers lose their jobs - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46362052 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46362052 - December 2025 ("Tyson says it’s closing the plant [Lexington, Nebraska] to “right-size” its beef business after a historically low cattle herd in the U.S. and the company’s expected loss of $600 million on beef production next fiscal year." Beef prices have soared in the US — and not just during grilling season - https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-record-high-cattle-steak-cows-e9fc33bbaec6a76fb243e277bbbb7c0e https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-record-high-cattle-st... - July 21st, 2025 Droughts, complicated by climate change, result in US beef herd hitting historic low - https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/03/13/droughts-complicated-by-climate-change-lead-to-historically-dwindling-us-beef-herd/ https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/03/13/droughts-complicat... - March 13th, 2024 U.S. Cattle Inventory Smallest in 73 years - https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smallest-in-73-years https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smalles... - February 5th, 2024 (think in systems)

NewJazz 10mo ago

Drying doesn't mean anything... The nutrients are still there you're only really losing water. What evidence do you have that the loss adjusted numbers have gone down while the preprocessed numbers have gone up so dramatically?

kulahan 10mo ago
Well if it’s based on weight, and one of the steps is to reduce the weight significantly… Point being someone eating a couple bags of jerky over a workday would probably count as having eaten literal pounds of beef, despite consumed weight being much lower. Water is noncompressible and makes your stomach full very quickly.
- quietbritishjim 10mo ago
  > Point being someone eating a couple bags of jerky over a workday would probably count as having eaten literal pounds of beef For the purposes of this conversation, about the nutritional effect of your diet, that seems like a fair way to put it.
Aurornis 10mo ago
> Drying doesn't mean anything... The nutrients are still there you're only really losing water. The problem with the number is that people see it and imagine pounds of meat like they see at the grocery store, but it's measuring pounds of meat that go into the meat processing plant. > What evidence do you have that the loss adjusted numbers have gone down while the preprocessed numbers have gone up so dramatically? No, the two numbers show the ratio. The "pounds of meat consumed per person" from the FAO is a pre-processed weight. The pounds of meat consumed per person from the USDA is the end-user weight. It's about half of the FAO number.