5 ms·

A bit of PR puffery, but it is fair to say that between Gemini and others it’s now been clearly demonstrated that OpenAI doesn’t have any clear moat.

by cmiles8 10mo ago

amelius 10mo ago
If the bubble doesn't burst in the next few days, then this is clearly wrong.
- Octoth0rpe 10mo ago
  Out of curiosity, why that specific timeframe? is there a significant unveiling supposed to happen? Something CES related?
- willparks 10mo ago
  Next few days? Might be a bit longer than that.
  - amelius 10mo ago
    Why? They said "clearly demonstrated". If it is so clear, then investors will want to pull their money out.
    - esafak 10mo ago
      What if all investors don't agree with this article?
    - array_key_first 10mo ago
      Most investors are dumb as rocks, or, at least, don't know shit about what they're investing in. I mean, I don't know squat about chemical manufacturing but I have some investment in that. It's not about who's the best, it's about where the market is. Dogpiling on growing companies is a proven way to make a lot of money, so people do it, and it's accelerated by index funds. The REAL people supporting Google and Nvidia isn't wallstreet, it's your 401K.
londons_explore 10mo ago
Their moat in the consumer world is the branding and the fact open ai has 'memory' which you can't migrate to another provider. That means responses can be far more tailored - it knows what your job is, knows where you go with friends, knows that when you ask about 'dates' you mean romantic relationships and which ones are going well or badly not the fruit, etc. Eventually when they make it work better, open ai can be your friend and confident, and you wouldn't dump your friend of many years to make another new friend without good reason.
- dufir 10mo ago
  What kind of a moat is that? I think it only works in abusive relationships, not consumer economies. Is OpenAIs model being an abusive money grubbing partner? I suppose it could be!
  - wolfhumble 10mo ago
    If you have all your “stuff” saved on ChatGPT, you’re naturally more likely to stay there, everything else being more or less equal: Your applications, translations, market research . . .
    - jennyholzer3 10mo ago
      [dead]
    - fluidcruft 10mo ago
      I think this is one of the reasons I prefer claude-code and codex. All the files are on my disks and if claude or codex were to disappear nothing is lost.
- patrickmcnamara 10mo ago
  I really think this memory thing is overstated on Hacker News. This is not something that is hard to move at all. It's not a moat. I don't think most users even know memory exist outside of a single conversation.
xnx 10mo ago
The next realization will be that Claude isn't clearly(/any?) better than Google's coding agents.
- Analemma_ 10mo ago
  I think Gemini 3.0 the model is smarter than Opus 4.5, but Claude Code still gives better results in practice than Gemini CLI. I assume this is because the model is only half the battle, and the rest is how good your harness and integration tooling are. But that also doesn't seem like a very deep moat, or something Google can't catch up on with focused attention, and I suspect by this time next year, or maybe even six months from now, they'll be about the same.
  - overfeed 10mo ago
    > But that also doesn't seem like a very deep moat, or something Google can't catch up on with focused attention, and I suspect by this time next year, or maybe even six months from now, they'll be about the same. The harnessing in Google's agentic IDE (Antigravity) is pretty great - the output quality is indistinguishable between Opus 4.5 and Gemini 3 for my use cases[1] 1. I tend to give detailed requirements for small-to-medium sized tasks (T-shirt sizing). YMMV on larger, less detailed tasks.
- SilverSlash 10mo ago
  Claude is cranked to the max for coding and specifically agentic coding and even more specifically agentic coding using Claude Code. It's like the macbook of coding LLMs.
- nmfisher 10mo ago
  Claude Code + Opus 4.5 is an order of magnitude better than Gemini CLI + Gemini 3 Pro (at least, last time I tried it). I don't know how much secret sauce is in CC vs the underlying model, but I would need a lot of convincing to even bother with Gemini CLI again.
  - cageface 10mo ago

A bit of PR puffery, but it is fair to say that between Gemini and others it’s now been clearly demonstrated that OpenAI doesn’t have any clear moat.

by cmiles8 10mo ago

A bit of PR puffery, but it is fair to say that between Gemini and others it’s now been clearly demonstrated that OpenAI doesn’t have any clear moat.

amelius 10mo ago

If the bubble doesn't burst in the next few days, then this is clearly wrong.

Octoth0rpe 10mo ago
Out of curiosity, why that specific timeframe? is there a significant unveiling supposed to happen? Something CES related?
willparks 10mo ago
Next few days? Might be a bit longer than that.
- amelius 10mo ago
  Why? They said "clearly demonstrated". If it is so clear, then investors will want to pull their money out.
  - esafak 10mo ago
    What if all investors don't agree with this article?
  - array_key_first 10mo ago
    Most investors are dumb as rocks, or, at least, don't know shit about what they're investing in. I mean, I don't know squat about chemical manufacturing but I have some investment in that. It's not about who's the best, it's about where the market is. Dogpiling on growing companies is a proven way to make a lot of money, so people do it, and it's accelerated by index funds. The REAL people supporting Google and Nvidia isn't wallstreet, it's your 401K.

londons_explore 10mo ago

Their moat in the consumer world is the branding and the fact open ai has 'memory' which you can't migrate to another provider. That means responses can be far more tailored - it knows what your job is, knows where you go with friends, knows that when you ask about 'dates' you mean romantic relationships and which ones are going well or badly not the fruit, etc. Eventually when they make it work better, open ai can be your friend and confident, and you wouldn't dump your friend of many years to make another new friend without good reason.

dufir 10mo ago
What kind of a moat is that? I think it only works in abusive relationships, not consumer economies. Is OpenAIs model being an abusive money grubbing partner? I suppose it could be!
- wolfhumble 10mo ago
  If you have all your “stuff” saved on ChatGPT, you’re naturally more likely to stay there, everything else being more or less equal: Your applications, translations, market research . . .
  - jennyholzer3 10mo ago
    [dead]
  - fluidcruft 10mo ago
    I think this is one of the reasons I prefer claude-code and codex. All the files are on my disks and if claude or codex were to disappear nothing is lost.
patrickmcnamara 10mo ago
I really think this memory thing is overstated on Hacker News. This is not something that is hard to move at all. It's not a moat. I don't think most users even know memory exist outside of a single conversation.

xnx 10mo ago

The next realization will be that Claude isn't clearly(/any?) better than Google's coding agents.

Analemma_ 10mo ago
I think Gemini 3.0 the model is smarter than Opus 4.5, but Claude Code still gives better results in practice than Gemini CLI. I assume this is because the model is only half the battle, and the rest is how good your harness and integration tooling are. But that also doesn't seem like a very deep moat, or something Google can't catch up on with focused attention, and I suspect by this time next year, or maybe even six months from now, they'll be about the same.
- overfeed 10mo ago
  > But that also doesn't seem like a very deep moat, or something Google can't catch up on with focused attention, and I suspect by this time next year, or maybe even six months from now, they'll be about the same. The harnessing in Google's agentic IDE (Antigravity) is pretty great - the output quality is indistinguishable between Opus 4.5 and Gemini 3 for my use cases[1] 1. I tend to give detailed requirements for small-to-medium sized tasks (T-shirt sizing). YMMV on larger, less detailed tasks.
SilverSlash 10mo ago
Claude is cranked to the max for coding and specifically agentic coding and even more specifically agentic coding using Claude Code. It's like the macbook of coding LLMs.
nmfisher 10mo ago
Claude Code + Opus 4.5 is an order of magnitude better than Gemini CLI + Gemini 3 Pro (at least, last time I tried it). I don't know how much secret sauce is in CC vs the underlying model, but I would need a lot of convincing to even bother with Gemini CLI again.
- cageface 10mo ago