11 ms·

While it's true that so far they only removed Maduro, removing a sitting president and his wife is a show of power, it's a "we do whatever we want". What is sto

While it's true that so far they only removed Maduro, removing a sitting president and his wife is a show of power, it's a "we do whatever we want". What is stopping the US to remove the next person, and continue doing so until as they find someone that they like? Or to organize an up-rising or a coup? The writing is on the wall.

clanky 9mo ago
[flagged]
- case 9mo ago
  > This looks a lot like when the U.S. & Israel were running dry on interceptors last year, and made a deal with the Iranians to pretend to blow up Fordow in exchange for ceasing hostilities. Do you have a citation for this? (Genuinely curious)
  - clanky 9mo ago
    [flagged]
    - ethbr1 9mo ago
      > the silence of the Iranian government on this point suggests something coordinated to me Or, you know, a theocratic autocracy that realizes the perception of its military power is critical to keeping the populace in line? And admitting to an inability to stop military action on one of their most heavily defended targets by the very enemy they've whipped their supporters into a froth over is a bad look?
      - clanky 9mo ago
        In your zeal you seem to have misunderstood the point I was making. The Iranian government did not dispute American claims of having flown over and destroyed Fordow, which is the opposite of the "they'll say anything to look strong" thesis you're advancing. I think the U.S. whipped the Iranian government's supporters into line by treacherously using peace negotiations as a pretext to target their scientists, helping Israel launch a completely unjustified sneak attack with all the Mossad rats they had hidden in the country, and facilitating the genocide in Gaza. With enemies like that the Iranian government hardly needs help.
        ethbr1 9mo ago
        So, your conspiracy is that Iran allowed US bombers to strike Fordow, proved by the fact that the Iranian government didn't say anything about it? I'm not sure how that disagrees with my point.
    - fooker 9mo ago
      > it isn't credible that B-2s flew over Fordow without Iranian permission It is very credible because a few days before this happened, Israel wiped out Iran's air defense systems with f35 attacks.
    - Den_VR 9mo ago
      The author’s claims that “there was never any credible evidence that Iranian medium- and long-range air defenses against fixed-wing aircraft were attrited to any significant degree“ and that the B-2 is easily to track and target… seem rather questionable. Unfounded even.
- meindnoch 9mo ago
  Honestly can't tell if troll or schizo.
  - clanky 9mo ago
    I guess we'll see if Trump's blustering that he'll install American oil execs in Caracas pans out, won't we? Given that Chinese officials met with Maduro just before all this, I'm open to the idea that some kind of deal has been made to hand Latin America to the U.S. in exchange for our forbearance elsewhere in the world, so we might see something more serious, but at this point we just have the removal of a single head of state under extremely suspicious circumstances.
  - jacquesm 9mo ago
    The even weirder option is that they may be right and that I can no longer tell the difference with 100% accuracy. This is very annoying.
    - clanky 9mo ago
      I used to be a Skeptic magazine reading, blanket conspiracy doubting "classical liberal." Since this system is predicated on lies, everyone with a base level of commitment to the truth eventually turns their back on the official narratives. I mean, it's hard to tell what is really going on in Venezuela right now, but as far as I can tell the only truly fragmented or "schizo" worldview would be that the United States was able to hover a Chinook over Caracas and extract Maduro without firing a single shot, without some kind of pre-agreed deal being in place.
stickfigure 9mo ago
Venezuela was a functioning democracy until a short number of years ago, when Maduro stole the election through clear and blatant fraud. Not every country is Iraq or Afghanistan. At least here it's fairly clear that removing Maduro reflects the popular will of Venezuelans.
- estearum 9mo ago
  Eh, Saddam Hussein wasn't terribly popular. History is full of awful people being toppled and situations further degrading. Sometimes horrifically.
  - stickfigure 9mo ago
    Iraq was never a democracy. It bounced from monarchy to military rule to one party rule to Hussein's personal dictatorship. Venezuela had a... let's call it "respectable" democracy since the late 50s. Chavez did it no favors but it didn't completely collapse until Maduro. If Venezuela recovers and improves, are you willing to fundamentally change your opinion about US interventions?
    - estearum 9mo ago
      > If Venezuela recovers and improves, are you willing to fundamentally change your opinion about US interventions? Uhh, no? My opinion is that US interventions are incredibly risky. There have been numerous successes. There have also been numerous failures. Both have required immense resources and focus from us. Some interventions are worth the risk, and others are not. I have not seen any compelling rationale for the risk-reward of this particular intervention, and have very low hopes for the follow through, which makes the risk-reward calculus even worse.
      - mupuff1234 9mo ago
        You don't think Venezuela having the largest oils reserves on the planet and it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China make the possible reward fairly significant from a US standpoint?
somenameforme 9mo ago
This already likely was a coup. They knew exactly where Maduro was and were able to get in and out, with no air defense issues, no alarm issues, and all presumably with just a small commando group. This isn't like grabbing Osama who was relatively alone on a compound - this is the current President of a country, who was already probably quite paranoid, and who now was under active threat and certainly behaving accordingly. Doing all that as an outsider is basically impossible, so they must have had substantial amounts of insider help, which is essentially the definition of a coup. And the media is already reporting that 'somehow' all of his inner circle seem to have survived.
- foota 9mo ago
  They blew up the air defences and reportedly had help from a CIA informant, but there's nothing to indicate that it was a coup.
  - mensetmanusman 9mo ago
    That was only to save face. It was part of a negotiated exit.
    - mise_en_place 9mo ago
      2-3 years max in a federal country club prison, minimum security. Then it's off to Switzerland or Dubai with his ill gotten gains. It is rather sad to see people having a personal stake in this. It's a big club, and you ain't in it.
  - kogasa240p 9mo ago
    True but you don't need advanced defense to take out slow moving helicopters, the fact that nobody used manpads is extremely suspect. Also in syria the russians did token airstrikes while jolani's forces blitzed through the countryside.
    - qcnguy 9mo ago
      It was done at night with stealth helicopters, and over 150 planes in the air. Not sure it's necessarily easy to take out US military helicopters in that environment. They move pretty fast.
bg_tagas 9mo ago
[dead]

clanky 9mo ago

[flagged]

case 9mo ago
> This looks a lot like when the U.S. & Israel were running dry on interceptors last year, and made a deal with the Iranians to pretend to blow up Fordow in exchange for ceasing hostilities. Do you have a citation for this? (Genuinely curious)
- clanky 9mo ago
  [flagged]
  - ethbr1 9mo ago
    > the silence of the Iranian government on this point suggests something coordinated to me Or, you know, a theocratic autocracy that realizes the perception of its military power is critical to keeping the populace in line? And admitting to an inability to stop military action on one of their most heavily defended targets by the very enemy they've whipped their supporters into a froth over is a bad look?
    - clanky 9mo ago
      In your zeal you seem to have misunderstood the point I was making. The Iranian government did not dispute American claims of having flown over and destroyed Fordow, which is the opposite of the "they'll say anything to look strong" thesis you're advancing. I think the U.S. whipped the Iranian government's supporters into line by treacherously using peace negotiations as a pretext to target their scientists, helping Israel launch a completely unjustified sneak attack with all the Mossad rats they had hidden in the country, and facilitating the genocide in Gaza. With enemies like that the Iranian government hardly needs help.
      - ethbr1 9mo ago
        So, your conspiracy is that Iran allowed US bombers to strike Fordow, proved by the fact that the Iranian government didn't say anything about it? I'm not sure how that disagrees with my point.
  - fooker 9mo ago
    > it isn't credible that B-2s flew over Fordow without Iranian permission It is very credible because a few days before this happened, Israel wiped out Iran's air defense systems with f35 attacks.
  - Den_VR 9mo ago
    The author’s claims that “there was never any credible evidence that Iranian medium- and long-range air defenses against fixed-wing aircraft were attrited to any significant degree“ and that the B-2 is easily to track and target… seem rather questionable. Unfounded even.
meindnoch 9mo ago
Honestly can't tell if troll or schizo.
- clanky 9mo ago
  I guess we'll see if Trump's blustering that he'll install American oil execs in Caracas pans out, won't we? Given that Chinese officials met with Maduro just before all this, I'm open to the idea that some kind of deal has been made to hand Latin America to the U.S. in exchange for our forbearance elsewhere in the world, so we might see something more serious, but at this point we just have the removal of a single head of state under extremely suspicious circumstances.
- jacquesm 9mo ago
  The even weirder option is that they may be right and that I can no longer tell the difference with 100% accuracy. This is very annoying.
  - clanky 9mo ago
    I used to be a Skeptic magazine reading, blanket conspiracy doubting "classical liberal." Since this system is predicated on lies, everyone with a base level of commitment to the truth eventually turns their back on the official narratives. I mean, it's hard to tell what is really going on in Venezuela right now, but as far as I can tell the only truly fragmented or "schizo" worldview would be that the United States was able to hover a Chinook over Caracas and extract Maduro without firing a single shot, without some kind of pre-agreed deal being in place.

stickfigure 9mo ago

Venezuela was a functioning democracy until a short number of years ago, when Maduro stole the election through clear and blatant fraud. Not every country is Iraq or Afghanistan. At least here it's fairly clear that removing Maduro reflects the popular will of Venezuelans.

estearum 9mo ago
Eh, Saddam Hussein wasn't terribly popular. History is full of awful people being toppled and situations further degrading. Sometimes horrifically.
- stickfigure 9mo ago
  Iraq was never a democracy. It bounced from monarchy to military rule to one party rule to Hussein's personal dictatorship. Venezuela had a... let's call it "respectable" democracy since the late 50s. Chavez did it no favors but it didn't completely collapse until Maduro. If Venezuela recovers and improves, are you willing to fundamentally change your opinion about US interventions?
  - estearum 9mo ago
    > If Venezuela recovers and improves, are you willing to fundamentally change your opinion about US interventions? Uhh, no? My opinion is that US interventions are incredibly risky. There have been numerous successes. There have also been numerous failures. Both have required immense resources and focus from us. Some interventions are worth the risk, and others are not. I have not seen any compelling rationale for the risk-reward of this particular intervention, and have very low hopes for the follow through, which makes the risk-reward calculus even worse.
    - mupuff1234 9mo ago
      You don't think Venezuela having the largest oils reserves on the planet and it being a strong ally to Russia, Iran and China make the possible reward fairly significant from a US standpoint?

somenameforme 9mo ago

This already likely was a coup. They knew exactly where Maduro was and were able to get in and out, with no air defense issues, no alarm issues, and all presumably with just a small commando group. This isn't like grabbing Osama who was relatively alone on a compound - this is the current President of a country, who was already probably quite paranoid, and who now was under active threat and certainly behaving accordingly. Doing all that as an outsider is basically impossible, so they must have had substantial amounts of insider help, which is essentially the definition of a coup. And the media is already reporting that 'somehow' all of his inner circle seem to have survived.

foota 9mo ago
They blew up the air defences and reportedly had help from a CIA informant, but there's nothing to indicate that it was a coup.
- mensetmanusman 9mo ago
  That was only to save face. It was part of a negotiated exit.
  - mise_en_place 9mo ago
    2-3 years max in a federal country club prison, minimum security. Then it's off to Switzerland or Dubai with his ill gotten gains. It is rather sad to see people having a personal stake in this. It's a big club, and you ain't in it.
- kogasa240p 9mo ago
  True but you don't need advanced defense to take out slow moving helicopters, the fact that nobody used manpads is extremely suspect. Also in syria the russians did token airstrikes while jolani's forces blitzed through the countryside.
  - qcnguy 9mo ago
    It was done at night with stealth helicopters, and over 150 planes in the air. Not sure it's necessarily easy to take out US military helicopters in that environment. They move pretty fast.

bg_tagas 9mo ago

[dead]