4 ms·

Seems like demographics, AI, and tech parity are converging on a Taiwan takeover attempt in the 2027-2030 timeframe.

jakeinspace 10mo ago
If China actually catches up and surpasses the West/TSMC in fab technology and production, I think they'd have a better option, which is simply flooding the world market with high-end chips and obliterating the Taiwanese economy. Eventually, joining an economically dominant China might become more palatable, or a necessity.
- noosphr 10mo ago
  At this point I'm willing to wave around the little red book for a 1TB of ram. I don't have that many kidneys left to buy gpus, ram and ssd at the prices they are now, let alone the prices next year.
- treyd 10mo ago
  This would be more in-line with their strategy in other areas. Quietly massively improve technical capability and then utterly out-compete international competitors. They did this with solar, multicopters, are in progress with doing this with TVs, nuclear power, etc. War is expensive and destructive, it's easier and nicer to just negate the economic relevance of your opponents if you have the time and resources to do it (which they do).
  - mywittyname 10mo ago
    China is also doing this with weapons. It's just a little more difficult normal people to see the results because people can't get a Dongfeng 2x series rocket from Ali Express. Realistically, the general public doesn't have access to an honest appraise of their capabilities. So we are left to infer from their accomplishments in other high-tech areas what their military industry is capable of producing.
- simmerup 10mo ago
  How much money would Taiwan have to be offerred to voluntarily place their heads under the boot of China
  - kjkjadksj 10mo ago
    The leadership will have a price in mind and they won’t be the ones under the boot. Everyone has a price to look the other way even if they think they are principled now.
Herring 10mo ago
The track record says China will probably just buy Taiwan. If you hate invasions so much, you should probably focus your energies on Venezuela. Looks like Trump might start a war for Christmas.
- aunty_helen 10mo ago
  Wars are old fashioned. This is a “special military operation”
  - DoctorOetker 10mo ago
    is 1950 old-fashioned? The Korean War was originally called a "police operation"
- deleted 10mo ago
  [deleted]
cpursley 10mo ago
I know mass media keeps pounding this "eventual scenario" (manufacturing consent and all). Maybe it will happen, but the Chinese think on longer timelines than the ADHD West and are probably banking on A). Out-attriting, B). Out-innovating. If both happen, we might find ourselves with a situation where Taiwan voluntarily wants to align closer with China as the West flails.
- simmerup 10mo ago
  China know that the one child policy has fucked their demographics and that their future isn't as rosy as it might appear now
  - mistercheph 10mo ago
    Why would the nation that implemented the one-child policy be unable to implement a three child policy?
    - christophilus 10mo ago
      Reversing demographic momentum isn’t so easy. You have a cascade effect which happens, and high costs of a massive elderly population can’t be borne by a sudden baby boom. Also, through the medical system, etc, you can force people to abort their children, but it’s harder to force them to make children.
      - DoctorOetker 10mo ago
        They will just tax condoms to sponsor the elderly homes.
    - deleted 10mo ago
      [deleted]
  - cpursley 10mo ago
    And that's more of the "propaganda narrative" (google that term) getting pounded at us from all channels over the past several years. It's so 1984 - remember when we were told they were growing too much and getting overpopulated and the planet was going extent any moment? So which one is it? Anyways, their population decrease will be offset by AI and automation all while they still pump out more honor students than the entire West combined. They'll be fine is what I'm saying.
wood_spirit 10mo ago
China is building all kinds of suggestive tech including invasion barge piers to land heavy stuff quickly once a beachhead has been established http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Invasion-Barge-OSINT.html http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Invasion-Barge-OSINT.html
dluan 10mo ago
Peaceful democratic transition is also on the table when KMT wins back the presidency next.
- pinewurst 10mo ago
  Read as "anyone connected flees to the US, anyone deemed political gets a free relocation to a Xinjiang re-education camp, and lots of new mainland 'mothers' live with those allowed to remain". Why would anyone voluntarily sign up to have Winnie the Pooh's boot on their face?
  - dluan 10mo ago
    You have brain worms

If China actually catches up and surpasses the West/TSMC in fab technology and production, I think they'd have a better option, which is simply flooding the world market with high-end chips and obliterating the Taiwanese economy. Eventually, joining an economically dominant China might become more palatable, or a necessity.

noosphr 10mo ago
At this point I'm willing to wave around the little red book for a 1TB of ram. I don't have that many kidneys left to buy gpus, ram and ssd at the prices they are now, let alone the prices next year.
treyd 10mo ago
This would be more in-line with their strategy in other areas. Quietly massively improve technical capability and then utterly out-compete international competitors. They did this with solar, multicopters, are in progress with doing this with TVs, nuclear power, etc. War is expensive and destructive, it's easier and nicer to just negate the economic relevance of your opponents if you have the time and resources to do it (which they do).
- mywittyname 10mo ago
  China is also doing this with weapons. It's just a little more difficult normal people to see the results because people can't get a Dongfeng 2x series rocket from Ali Express. Realistically, the general public doesn't have access to an honest appraise of their capabilities. So we are left to infer from their accomplishments in other high-tech areas what their military industry is capable of producing.
simmerup 10mo ago
How much money would Taiwan have to be offerred to voluntarily place their heads under the boot of China
- kjkjadksj 10mo ago
  The leadership will have a price in mind and they won’t be the ones under the boot. Everyone has a price to look the other way even if they think they are principled now.

Herring 10mo ago

The track record says China will probably just buy Taiwan. If you hate invasions so much, you should probably focus your energies on Venezuela. Looks like Trump might start a war for Christmas.

aunty_helen 10mo ago
Wars are old fashioned. This is a “special military operation”
- DoctorOetker 10mo ago
  is 1950 old-fashioned? The Korean War was originally called a "police operation"
deleted 10mo ago
[deleted]

cpursley 10mo ago

I know mass media keeps pounding this "eventual scenario" (manufacturing consent and all). Maybe it will happen, but the Chinese think on longer timelines than the ADHD West and are probably banking on A). Out-attriting, B). Out-innovating. If both happen, we might find ourselves with a situation where Taiwan voluntarily wants to align closer with China as the West flails.

simmerup 10mo ago
China know that the one child policy has fucked their demographics and that their future isn't as rosy as it might appear now
- mistercheph 10mo ago
  Why would the nation that implemented the one-child policy be unable to implement a three child policy?
  - christophilus 10mo ago
    Reversing demographic momentum isn’t so easy. You have a cascade effect which happens, and high costs of a massive elderly population can’t be borne by a sudden baby boom. Also, through the medical system, etc, you can force people to abort their children, but it’s harder to force them to make children.
    - DoctorOetker 10mo ago
      They will just tax condoms to sponsor the elderly homes.
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
- cpursley 10mo ago
  And that's more of the "propaganda narrative" (google that term) getting pounded at us from all channels over the past several years. It's so 1984 - remember when we were told they were growing too much and getting overpopulated and the planet was going extent any moment? So which one is it? Anyways, their population decrease will be offset by AI and automation all while they still pump out more honor students than the entire West combined. They'll be fine is what I'm saying.

wood_spirit 10mo ago

China is building all kinds of suggestive tech including invasion barge piers to land heavy stuff quickly once a beachhead has been established http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Invasion-Barge-OSINT.html http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Invasion-Barge-OSINT.html

dluan 10mo ago

Peaceful democratic transition is also on the table when KMT wins back the presidency next.

pinewurst 10mo ago
Read as "anyone connected flees to the US, anyone deemed political gets a free relocation to a Xinjiang re-education camp, and lots of new mainland 'mothers' live with those allowed to remain". Why would anyone voluntarily sign up to have Winnie the Pooh's boot on their face?
- dluan 10mo ago
  You have brain worms