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This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of a

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

lm28469 10mo ago
"My technosolutionist bubble says it's not a bubble, trust me bro"
- thenaturalist 10mo ago
  „Just XYZ more billion, bro, and then we’re gonna have AGI! For real bro, pleaseeee!“
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
  - edhelas 10mo ago
    Why can't you just prompt a way to AGI without spending all that money?
    - popoflojo 10mo ago
      Honestly this is the best response. If the AI was actually so great, it could create better AI, and the future would already be here
      - bzzzt 10mo ago
        According to the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy this would take an AI 10 million years. Seems like we're stuck with '42' for a while ;)
      - thenaturalist 10mo ago
        They are talking to each other already. Whether for betterment remains to be seen. 2 Opus 4 talking directly to each other: https://www.iflscience.com/the-spiritual-bliss-attractor-something-weird-happens-when-you-leave-two-ais-talking-to-each-other-79578 https://www.iflscience.com/the-spiritual-bliss-attractor-som... "Learning" passing between derivatives of the same base models: https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/subliminal-learning/ https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/subliminal-learning/
  - Yizahi 10mo ago
    "Sam Altman, a man best known for needing a few more billions at any given moment." (c) HN best-of-2025 :)
- paganel 10mo ago
  > technosolutionist I'm going to steal this for my arrr rspod conversations.
  - bluedel 10mo ago
    It's a fairly common descriptor
thenaturalist 10mo ago
Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs. I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.
- ACCount37 10mo ago
  What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?
  - ares623 10mo ago
    The alternative is to be f*cking honest
    - ACCount37 10mo ago
      "Fucking honest" how? If I'm being fucking honest, then this generation of LLMs might already beat most humans on raw intelligence, AI progress shows no signs of stopping, and "it's not actually thinking" is just another "AI effect" cope that humans come up with to feel more important and more exceptional. Or is this not the "fucking honesty" you want?
      - lioeters 10mo ago
        The more you talk, the more you're proving their point.
    - bluebarbet 10mo ago
      This contribution adds nothing to the conversation except gratuitous venom.
      - Planktonne 10mo ago
        I don't think that's fair; one of the most significant criticisms of the AI industry is the number of misleading claims made by its spokespeople, which has had a significant effect on public perception. The parent comment is a relevant expression of that.
keybored 10mo ago
I never talk to people who don’t wear suits.
danybittel 10mo ago
From the article: ...AI is currently the subject of great enthusiasm. If that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first.
obruchez 10mo ago
It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.
- roenxi 10mo ago
  I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?
  - kjhkjhksdhksdhk 10mo ago
    exist in realtime. they don't, we do.
    - ACCount37 10mo ago
      No, you pretend you do. You got 200ms of round trip delay across your nervous system. Some of the modern AI robotics systems already have that beat, sensor data to actuator action.
      - irishcoffee 10mo ago
        > Some of the modern AI robotics systems already have that beat, sensor data to actuator action. What do LLMs have to do with this? You ever see a machine beat a speed cube? So we’ve had “AI” all along and never knew it?! Oh right, comparing meatspace messaging speeds to copper or fiber doesn’t make sense. Good point.
        ACCount37 10mo ago
        Look up Gemini Robotics-ER 1.5 and the likes. Anyone who's trying to build universal AI-driven robots converges on architectures like that. Larger language-based models driving smaller "executive" models that operate in real time at a high frequency.
lawn 10mo ago
That AI have the potential to be extremely disruptive does not prevent the current speculative boom to be a bubble. People seem to have forgotten about the dotcom bubble.
re-thc 10mo ago
> and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear? You know how to? What language does it speak?
YetAnotherNick 10mo ago
> artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. This seems like a factually correct sentence. Emphasis on "potential".
bitwize 10mo ago
AI is changing the world and has changed the world already. See, AI is a field... and it's also a buzzword: once a technology passes out of fashion and becomes part of the fabric of computing, it is no longer called AI in the public imagination. GOFAI techniques, like rules engines and propositional-logic inference, were certainly considered AI in the 1970s and 1980s, and are still used, they're just no longer called that. The statistical methods behind machine learning, transformers, and LLMs are certainly game changers for the field. Whether they will usher in a revolutionary new economy, or simply be accepted as sometimes-useful computation techniques as their limitations and the boundaries of their benefits become more widely known, remains to be seen but I think it will be closer to the latter than the former.
sandworm101 10mo ago
One upon a time in SF i was told that human-driven cars would be illegal, or too expensive to insure, by the end of the decade. That was last decade. The modern tech economy is all about bubbles biult and sustained by hype people. Vertical farming. Pot replacing alcohol. Blockchains replacing lawyers. The metaverse replacing everything. Sure, we are in an AI bubble but we aslo ride atop a dozen others. AI data centers in space? In five years? Really? No fiber connections? Does any sane person actually believe this? No. But if that is what keeps the billions flowing upwards then who am I to judge.
- lynx97 10mo ago
  Not just in SF. "Journalists" love to pick up these enflated futuristic projections and run with 'em, since they sound so cozy and generate clicks. I still remember the "Google Car" craze from the early 2010er years. And if you tell people who read and believe this futuristic nonesense that it is enflated, you get pushback, because, yeah, why should a single person know better then a incentivized journalist...
- TheAceOfHearts 10mo ago
  I'm quite skeptical of the data centers in space claim, but I think a proof of concept can certainly be achieved in five years. I'm less convinced that we'll ever see widescale deployment of data center satellites. And to be fair, I've read that Google's timelines for this project extend far beyond a 5 year horizon. I think it's a rational research direction for them, since it gets people excited and historically many space-related innovations have been repurposed to benefit other industries. Best case scenario would be that research done in support of this data centers in space project leads to innovations that can be applied towards normal data centers.
  - popoflojo 10mo ago
    Do data centers on Earth have no employees present, and none who ever come on site for the life of the data center? Prove that out on earth and I will start to believe your space data center.
tim333 10mo ago
You can be a bear and still think AI will be big one day. It's quite plausible that LLMs will remain limited and we don't find anything better for decades and the stocks crash. But saying AI will never be a big thing is just unrealistic.
- Yizahi 10mo ago
  I think we should split definition somehow, between what LLMs can do today (or next few years) with how big a thing this particular capability can be (a derivative of the capability). And then what some future AI could do and with how big a thing that future capability could be. I regularly see people who distinguish between current and future capabilities, but then still lump societal impact (how big a thing could be) into one projection. The key bubble question is - if that future AI is sufficiently far away (for example if there will be a gap, a new "AI winter" for a few decades), then does this current capability justify the capital expenditures, and if not then by how much?
  - tim333 10mo ago
    Yeah, and how long can OpenAI etc. hang on without making profits.

lm28469 10mo ago

"My technosolutionist bubble says it's not a bubble, trust me bro"

thenaturalist 10mo ago
„Just XYZ more billion, bro, and then we’re gonna have AGI! For real bro, pleaseeee!“
- deleted 10mo ago
  [deleted]
- edhelas 10mo ago
  Why can't you just prompt a way to AGI without spending all that money?
  - popoflojo 10mo ago
    Honestly this is the best response. If the AI was actually so great, it could create better AI, and the future would already be here
    - bzzzt 10mo ago
      According to the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy this would take an AI 10 million years. Seems like we're stuck with '42' for a while ;)
    - thenaturalist 10mo ago
      They are talking to each other already. Whether for betterment remains to be seen. 2 Opus 4 talking directly to each other: https://www.iflscience.com/the-spiritual-bliss-attractor-something-weird-happens-when-you-leave-two-ais-talking-to-each-other-79578 https://www.iflscience.com/the-spiritual-bliss-attractor-som... "Learning" passing between derivatives of the same base models: https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/subliminal-learning/ https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/subliminal-learning/
- Yizahi 10mo ago
  "Sam Altman, a man best known for needing a few more billions at any given moment." (c) HN best-of-2025 :)
paganel 10mo ago
> technosolutionist I'm going to steal this for my arrr rspod conversations.
- bluedel 10mo ago
  It's a fairly common descriptor

thenaturalist 10mo ago

Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs. I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

ACCount37 10mo ago
What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?
- ares623 10mo ago
  The alternative is to be f*cking honest
  - ACCount37 10mo ago
    "Fucking honest" how? If I'm being fucking honest, then this generation of LLMs might already beat most humans on raw intelligence, AI progress shows no signs of stopping, and "it's not actually thinking" is just another "AI effect" cope that humans come up with to feel more important and more exceptional. Or is this not the "fucking honesty" you want?
    - lioeters 10mo ago
      The more you talk, the more you're proving their point.
  - bluebarbet 10mo ago
    This contribution adds nothing to the conversation except gratuitous venom.
    - Planktonne 10mo ago
      I don't think that's fair; one of the most significant criticisms of the AI industry is the number of misleading claims made by its spokespeople, which has had a significant effect on public perception. The parent comment is a relevant expression of that.

keybored 10mo ago

I never talk to people who don’t wear suits.

danybittel 10mo ago

From the article: ...AI is currently the subject of great enthusiasm. If that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first.

obruchez 10mo ago

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

roenxi 10mo ago
I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?
- kjhkjhksdhksdhk 10mo ago
  exist in realtime. they don't, we do.
  - ACCount37 10mo ago
    No, you pretend you do. You got 200ms of round trip delay across your nervous system. Some of the modern AI robotics systems already have that beat, sensor data to actuator action.
    - irishcoffee 10mo ago
      > Some of the modern AI robotics systems already have that beat, sensor data to actuator action. What do LLMs have to do with this? You ever see a machine beat a speed cube? So we’ve had “AI” all along and never knew it?! Oh right, comparing meatspace messaging speeds to copper or fiber doesn’t make sense. Good point.
      - ACCount37 10mo ago
        Look up Gemini Robotics-ER 1.5 and the likes. Anyone who's trying to build universal AI-driven robots converges on architectures like that. Larger language-based models driving smaller "executive" models that operate in real time at a high frequency.

lawn 10mo ago

That AI have the potential to be extremely disruptive does not prevent the current speculative boom to be a bubble. People seem to have forgotten about the dotcom bubble.

re-thc 10mo ago

> and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear? You know how to? What language does it speak?

YetAnotherNick 10mo ago

> artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. This seems like a factually correct sentence. Emphasis on "potential".

bitwize 10mo ago

AI is changing the world and has changed the world already. See, AI is a field... and it's also a buzzword: once a technology passes out of fashion and becomes part of the fabric of computing, it is no longer called AI in the public imagination. GOFAI techniques, like rules engines and propositional-logic inference, were certainly considered AI in the 1970s and 1980s, and are still used, they're just no longer called that. The statistical methods behind machine learning, transformers, and LLMs are certainly game changers for the field. Whether they will usher in a revolutionary new economy, or simply be accepted as sometimes-useful computation techniques as their limitations and the boundaries of their benefits become more widely known, remains to be seen but I think it will be closer to the latter than the former.

sandworm101 10mo ago

One upon a time in SF i was told that human-driven cars would be illegal, or too expensive to insure, by the end of the decade. That was last decade. The modern tech economy is all about bubbles biult and sustained by hype people. Vertical farming. Pot replacing alcohol. Blockchains replacing lawyers. The metaverse replacing everything. Sure, we are in an AI bubble but we aslo ride atop a dozen others. AI data centers in space? In five years? Really? No fiber connections? Does any sane person actually believe this? No. But if that is what keeps the billions flowing upwards then who am I to judge.

lynx97 10mo ago
Not just in SF. "Journalists" love to pick up these enflated futuristic projections and run with 'em, since they sound so cozy and generate clicks. I still remember the "Google Car" craze from the early 2010er years. And if you tell people who read and believe this futuristic nonesense that it is enflated, you get pushback, because, yeah, why should a single person know better then a incentivized journalist...
TheAceOfHearts 10mo ago
I'm quite skeptical of the data centers in space claim, but I think a proof of concept can certainly be achieved in five years. I'm less convinced that we'll ever see widescale deployment of data center satellites. And to be fair, I've read that Google's timelines for this project extend far beyond a 5 year horizon. I think it's a rational research direction for them, since it gets people excited and historically many space-related innovations have been repurposed to benefit other industries. Best case scenario would be that research done in support of this data centers in space project leads to innovations that can be applied towards normal data centers.
- popoflojo 10mo ago
  Do data centers on Earth have no employees present, and none who ever come on site for the life of the data center? Prove that out on earth and I will start to believe your space data center.

tim333 10mo ago

You can be a bear and still think AI will be big one day. It's quite plausible that LLMs will remain limited and we don't find anything better for decades and the stocks crash. But saying AI will never be a big thing is just unrealistic.

Yizahi 10mo ago
I think we should split definition somehow, between what LLMs can do today (or next few years) with how big a thing this particular capability can be (a derivative of the capability). And then what some future AI could do and with how big a thing that future capability could be. I regularly see people who distinguish between current and future capabilities, but then still lump societal impact (how big a thing could be) into one projection. The key bubble question is - if that future AI is sufficiently far away (for example if there will be a gap, a new "AI winter" for a few decades), then does this current capability justify the capital expenditures, and if not then by how much?
- tim333 10mo ago
  Yeah, and how long can OpenAI etc. hang on without making profits.