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In a thread about survivor bias, and you fall for the same trap. How many people coming from wealthy background end up failing? Take Bill Gates, his father cof

by jryle70 11mo ago

In a thread about survivor bias, and you fall for the same trap. How many people coming from wealthy background end up failing? Take Bill Gates, his father cofounded a law firm, and his mother was a board members of several firms. That is a very wealthy background, but not outrageously so. How many people of the same level of wealth became successful businesspeople? It's said that his mom being on the same board as IBM's CEO at the time was a more instrumental factor to his eventual success than his family's wealth, and his own effort of course.

majormajor 11mo ago
> It's said that his mom being on the same board as IBM's CEO at the time was a more instrumental factor to his eventual success than his family's wealth, and his own effort of course. This sounds a lot like "his family's wealth was a more instrumental factor than his family's wealth" since "being on a board" is pretty rarified air. It's not Gates-himself-level wealthy, but what percentile is that? 90th? 95th? 99th?
sho_hn 11mo ago
> but not outrageously so Compared to 99.99% of the 8.3bn people on the planet, yes. HN never ceases to amaze me with its conception of what "wealthy and successful" means.
WalterBright 11mo ago
Gates received $5000 from his family for his business. I've read accounts of Microsoft's early days. It was self-sustaining very quickly. I also know something about compilers and interpreters. BASIC of that era was simply not difficult to create. Yes, Gates & Allen had access to a PDP-10 at Harvard which helped. But it was not required, as Woz proved by writing Apple BASIC in a notebook and hand assembled it. I also know that Hal Finney wrote a BASIC in 1978 or so that fit in a 2K EPROM (for Intellivision). As I recall, it didn't take him very long. So no, Microsoft is simply not a result of massive infusions of money. An awful lot of people had the ability to create Microsoft, what they lacked was vision, drive, and willingness to risk. And no, Gates and Allen were not going to starve if they failed, even without their parents' money.
- deleted 11mo ago
  [deleted]
WalterBright 11mo ago
> his mom being on the same board as IBM's CEO When IBM came knocking, Bill Gates referred them to Gary Kildall. Kildall (for whatever reason) muffed the deal, and Gates didn't pass on that opportunity again. Gary had the opportunity, and came from a middle class company. He invested in his company with his own resources.
raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
Okay can you name one successful modern day tech company whose founders didn’t come from money?
- bluecalm 11mo ago
  NVidia
  - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
    Jensen Hung’s father was an engineer and his mother was a teacher. He wasn’t going to be homeless and on the street if he failed. And he didn’t come straight out college either. He worked at AMD and I’m sure he had established some type of financial foundation and I’m sure he could have easily found a job if Nvidia failed with his background.
    - bluecalm 11mo ago
      >>Jensen Hung’s father was an engineer and his mother was a teacher. He wasn’t going to be homeless and on the street if he failed. So now the goalposts are "isn't desperate" while a while ago it was "came from money". Having caring parents and being raised in culture that value education help. No one is arguing that. >>And he didn’t come straight out college either. He worked at AMD and I’m sure he had established some type of financial foundation and I’m sure he could have easily found a job if Nvidia failed with his background. He needed to get a job first like a average person before starting his own company. Privilege!
      - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
        We have been talking about a safety net this entire thread and how you can make mistakes if you have one more easily than if you don’t
  - fxtentacle 11mo ago
    Huang's family must have had interesting connections if you consider that the daughter of his cousin is running AMD. And both were born in Taiwan and then went to MIT, which seems unlikely to happen without family money.

by jryle70 11mo ago

majormajor 11mo ago

> It's said that his mom being on the same board as IBM's CEO at the time was a more instrumental factor to his eventual success than his family's wealth, and his own effort of course. This sounds a lot like "his family's wealth was a more instrumental factor than his family's wealth" since "being on a board" is pretty rarified air. It's not Gates-himself-level wealthy, but what percentile is that? 90th? 95th? 99th?

sho_hn 11mo ago

> but not outrageously so Compared to 99.99% of the 8.3bn people on the planet, yes. HN never ceases to amaze me with its conception of what "wealthy and successful" means.

WalterBright 11mo ago

Gates received $5000 from his family for his business. I've read accounts of Microsoft's early days. It was self-sustaining very quickly. I also know something about compilers and interpreters. BASIC of that era was simply not difficult to create. Yes, Gates & Allen had access to a PDP-10 at Harvard which helped. But it was not required, as Woz proved by writing Apple BASIC in a notebook and hand assembled it. I also know that Hal Finney wrote a BASIC in 1978 or so that fit in a 2K EPROM (for Intellivision). As I recall, it didn't take him very long. So no, Microsoft is simply not a result of massive infusions of money. An awful lot of people had the ability to create Microsoft, what they lacked was vision, drive, and willingness to risk. And no, Gates and Allen were not going to starve if they failed, even without their parents' money.

deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]

WalterBright 11mo ago

> his mom being on the same board as IBM's CEO When IBM came knocking, Bill Gates referred them to Gary Kildall. Kildall (for whatever reason) muffed the deal, and Gates didn't pass on that opportunity again. Gary had the opportunity, and came from a middle class company. He invested in his company with his own resources.

raw_anon_1111 11mo ago

Okay can you name one successful modern day tech company whose founders didn’t come from money?

bluecalm 11mo ago
NVidia
- raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
  Jensen Hung’s father was an engineer and his mother was a teacher. He wasn’t going to be homeless and on the street if he failed. And he didn’t come straight out college either. He worked at AMD and I’m sure he had established some type of financial foundation and I’m sure he could have easily found a job if Nvidia failed with his background.
  - bluecalm 11mo ago
    >>Jensen Hung’s father was an engineer and his mother was a teacher. He wasn’t going to be homeless and on the street if he failed. So now the goalposts are "isn't desperate" while a while ago it was "came from money". Having caring parents and being raised in culture that value education help. No one is arguing that. >>And he didn’t come straight out college either. He worked at AMD and I’m sure he had established some type of financial foundation and I’m sure he could have easily found a job if Nvidia failed with his background. He needed to get a job first like a average person before starting his own company. Privilege!
    - raw_anon_1111 11mo ago
      We have been talking about a safety net this entire thread and how you can make mistakes if you have one more easily than if you don’t
- fxtentacle 11mo ago
  Huang's family must have had interesting connections if you consider that the daughter of his cousin is running AMD. And both were born in Taiwan and then went to MIT, which seems unlikely to happen without family money.