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Not just Tesla, all established brands we know are left behind. I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we w

by juujian 11mo ago

Not just Tesla, all established brands we know are left behind. I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'. Largest brands n terms of units, completely left behind in an emerging segment that's already dominating it's largest market (China). So many executives in the industry just didn't see the writing on the wall. I don't what GM was thinking, trying a truck as their first platform for EVs, but it's another indicator. This industry has the worst executives. Just don't see the writing on the wall.

mtrovo 11mo ago
This is what makes the innovator's dilemma repeat itself so many times in so many industries. It's not that the incumbent companies don't see the new technology; it's that they're so entrenched in what they know how to do that pivoting to the new technology is basically a Hail Mary no matter how you do it. Do it too early and your shareholders are going to think you're crazy. Do it too late, and you're risking entering a new market as the chaser with a bad hand of company, employees, and board that don't have any idea of what they're doing.
- darth_avocado 11mo ago
  I think it’s less “pivoting is hard” and more “we know what’s right and we’re not going to pivot”. It’s not hard to have smaller R&D teams work on these problems to keep the innovation going, but most executives are out there prioritizing cost cuttings so that the shareholders get the quarterly dopamine boosts on the earnings calls.
- deleted 11mo ago
  [deleted]
- prmph 11mo ago
  Exactly, usually the companies know what's coming up, like you said. But, properly shifting gears to play a new game requires that you act like a startup again. It likely requires foregoing the fat margins you were used to. And it likely requires going back to the drawing board and actually learning from the market. And this is what companies find it hard to do. To be fair, I think that is not so bad a things. Companies should rise and die naturally. A few companies monopolizing markets forever does not seem good.
  - thijson 11mo ago
    Kodak knew digital cameras were coming, my first digital camera was a Kodak from the late 90's. I guess it wasn't in their DNA to innovate and compete in this new medium. I feel like being a publicly traded company prevents pivoting because of the focus on short term results.
    - mechagodzilla 11mo ago
      Kodak didn't really have the option to compete. Their business was largely film, which just disappeared completely, and even digital cameras got replaced pretty quickly with phones. There was nothing to pivot too for Kodak.
      - fragmede 11mo ago
        What company does the digital camera sensor inside your phone come from? Why couldn't have that been Kodak?
        harrall 11mo ago
        Kodak had digital cameras but it would 10-15 years before digital sensors would be good enough. But the film market collapsed in like 5-7 years.
        fragmede 11mo ago
        and some simple math says that 10-15 minus 5-7 still leaves Kodak in the lurch. But it's now 2025, and Kodak the corporation is still around, so I don't know that my supposition: Kodak would be doing better today if they'd gone all in on digital camera sensor technology, is disproven by that fact.
- ruined 11mo ago
  car manufacturers can afford to experiment - it's not like they don't have room in the budget. and they did experiment. if you don't know GM's history with electric cars: they were positioned to execute a successful transition about thirty years ago, but they simply chose not to.
  - AngryData 11mo ago
    As someone with a lot of family working in GM corporate, it seems like they were never really confident in it in the first place. So many of them scoffed at the entire idea of electric cars and most still do, even with their own lineup and having driven them themselves. They expected them to fail and never put in the actual effort to support it. It seemed like 80% of corporate were against it completely and without reason because they themselves were doing fine and could afford the gas on their free corporate car and massive discounted family purchased cars. And everyone below them fed their egos by spewing garbage about how well they are all doing with their high margin luxury trimmed cars without considering how they are pricing more and more people out of their entire brand each year.
iamgopal 11mo ago
The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could take couple of decades 2) electric Energy cost will rise significantly because so much charging and energy infrastructure required. 3) Battery will reach at par with gasoline and matured standardised comodity, that will be the perfect time to enter.
- rootusrootus 11mo ago
  I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case. I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric). I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.
  - bryanlarsen 11mo ago
    > with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips I've done 4 3000km road trips and intentionally took the EV leaving the ICE vehicle at home. It's a better car, and we need to stop to bathroom anyways, so charging isn't inconvenient. Saving a few hundred dollars in fuel is nice, too.
    - gmueckl 11mo ago
      Long EV trips are possible amd convenient if there are enough chargers along the route. Sadly, this isn't the case on many routes in the US, at least. Europe is doing much better. I have no experience in other places.
      - 11mo ago
indubioprorubik 11mo ago
It was a new race- and they where so comfortable having won the IC-race and customer base! Now everyone and his dog got a new chance to compete- and they just didn't want to do that. And now every advance in battery and solar, will drive them faster out of those markets. These are not detached technologies- one completes the other.
Animats 11mo ago
Although Ford's CEO now gets it, Ford's product line doesn't reflect it yet. Farley has been bringing a few sample BYD cars to the US, for Ford people to drive around and to take apart. Farley dragged his executive team to China to see a BYD plant. They came back scared. But what Ford actually sells is 1) an F-150 converted to electric, 2) a Ford Mustang converted to electric, and 3) a Ford Transit converted to electric. They're all more expensive, and heavier, than their gasoline-powered versions. BYD shows that electric cars are cheaper if designed properly from the ground up. The problem is that the US no longer makes many cars. Mostly giant trucks and SUVs. Hauling all that mass around requires a huge battery, resulting in 3-ton vehicles.
- denimnerd42 11mo ago
  the mustang mach e is a purpose built EV. not a mustang with a battery back stuck in.
- bastawhiz 11mo ago
  > a Ford Mustang converted to electric I agree with your comment, but I'll be a little pedantic for a minute: As a Charger Daytona owner, I'd love to call the Mach-E a mustang, but it's really just borrowing the brand. Ford has said unequivocally that they'll never make an all-electric muscle car, which is a real shame. The Mach-E is a great car if you're turned off by a Model Y, but you wouldn't choose it over a mustang GT or a charger Daytona or a Camaro.
  - lostlogin 11mo ago
    > Ford has said unequivocally that they'll never make an all-electric muscle car What’s the thinking here? Pandering to some market segment? It sounds like they are organising the deck chairs in the titanic. Edit: I tried looking into the comment. It seems he was referring to Mustangs specifically, which is weird as they do make an electric one (assuming you agree it’s a ‘real’ mustang). I’m confused.
    - grosswait 11mo ago
sofixa 11mo ago
> 'we were too late, abort' What do you mean, the ID series for the main VW brand have 7 upcoming models over the next two years (4 for the Chinese market, 3 for everywhere). > all established brands we know are left behind I wouldn't go that far. The Renault 5 is one of the best selling EVs in Europe, and all the reviews are extremely positive (it's a fun and good looking car overall, and accessible). They have the 4 rolling out, and the small Twingo coming next year. They've also managed to narrow down the time from concept car to production at scale to less than 2 years (which according to the article on the topic I read is very fast).
constantcrying 11mo ago
>I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'. How is VW aborting in any way? They do not have a new ICE Platform, they are totally all in on EVs. Whether that will work out is of course another question, but it is bizarre to bring up EV when there is also Stellantis, who do not even have a dedicated EV Platform for their cars.
reisse 11mo ago
I thought Toyota is doing quite well in emerging markets? However they skipped a lot of EV craziness and just do cheap-and-reliable ICE cars. I also never understood why established brands lobbied for EVs, and not against them. They clearly had no edge over Tesla and Chinese brands, why compete on rival's field?
- lostlogin 11mo ago
  Toyota hasn’t offered pure electric where I am, just hybrids. And they have only just started offering plug in models I can charge. I’d love a Corolla or Camri EV - I’m not sure what ‘the Corolla of EVs’ is considered to be.
  - JojoFatsani 11mo ago
    It’s the Model 3, or maybe one of the Hyundai/Kia small EVs.
jeltz 11mo ago
WV seems to do amazingly in Europe so not sure what you are talking about. It is Tesla thaumt seems to be leaving the EV market with no new exciting models and making the European market hate the brand. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2025-half-year-europe-top-electric-car-brands-and-bev-models/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2025-half-year-eu...
- LunicLynx 11mo ago
  Reuters disagrees https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-swings-13-billion-euro-loss-q3-tariff-porsche-woes-2025-10-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...
  - hshdhdhj4444 11mo ago
    That article says nothing about VW EV sales being poor in Europe. In fact it calls VW’s EVs increasingly popular. The losses seem to be due to a tariff hit in the U.S. and due to Porsche change in strategy to focus more on hybrids and ICEs (0possibky because they’re focusing on EVs through VW?).
  - jeltz 11mo ago
    Seems to me like they largely agree. VW has issues caused by US tariffs and problems with Porsche but EV sales in Europe are growing and carries the rest of the company.
  - rsynnott 11mo ago
    That's related to one relatively minor subsidiary brand (Porsche accounts for about 3% of VW AG's sales), and it's a _weird_ brand for them, in that, whereas in a given size category the relevant SEAT, Skoda, VW, Audi etc are all pretty much the same, Porsches are quite distinct. VW as a whole is fairly committed to electric. Like, that article notes that their European EV sales are good.
hshdhdhj4444 11mo ago
Let’s not forget the Japanese who decided they didn’t want to compete in EVs because they couldn’t use that platform in some of their heavy machinery so decided to get the Japanese government to push hard on hydrogen, at a time Nissan was making a nice push in EVs, which led to Nissan having to back out of EVs as well.
JojoFatsani 11mo ago
Dieselgate put VW on the back foot at almost exactly the wrong time in automotive history.
rsynnott 11mo ago
Huh? VW is the largest seller of electric cars in Europe. I'm not sure what makes you think they've given up.

by juujian 11mo ago

mtrovo 11mo ago

This is what makes the innovator's dilemma repeat itself so many times in so many industries. It's not that the incumbent companies don't see the new technology; it's that they're so entrenched in what they know how to do that pivoting to the new technology is basically a Hail Mary no matter how you do it. Do it too early and your shareholders are going to think you're crazy. Do it too late, and you're risking entering a new market as the chaser with a bad hand of company, employees, and board that don't have any idea of what they're doing.

darth_avocado 11mo ago
I think it’s less “pivoting is hard” and more “we know what’s right and we’re not going to pivot”. It’s not hard to have smaller R&D teams work on these problems to keep the innovation going, but most executives are out there prioritizing cost cuttings so that the shareholders get the quarterly dopamine boosts on the earnings calls.
deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]
prmph 11mo ago
Exactly, usually the companies know what's coming up, like you said. But, properly shifting gears to play a new game requires that you act like a startup again. It likely requires foregoing the fat margins you were used to. And it likely requires going back to the drawing board and actually learning from the market. And this is what companies find it hard to do. To be fair, I think that is not so bad a things. Companies should rise and die naturally. A few companies monopolizing markets forever does not seem good.
- thijson 11mo ago
  Kodak knew digital cameras were coming, my first digital camera was a Kodak from the late 90's. I guess it wasn't in their DNA to innovate and compete in this new medium. I feel like being a publicly traded company prevents pivoting because of the focus on short term results.
  - mechagodzilla 11mo ago
    Kodak didn't really have the option to compete. Their business was largely film, which just disappeared completely, and even digital cameras got replaced pretty quickly with phones. There was nothing to pivot too for Kodak.
    - fragmede 11mo ago
      What company does the digital camera sensor inside your phone come from? Why couldn't have that been Kodak?
      - harrall 11mo ago
        Kodak had digital cameras but it would 10-15 years before digital sensors would be good enough. But the film market collapsed in like 5-7 years.
        fragmede 11mo ago
        and some simple math says that 10-15 minus 5-7 still leaves Kodak in the lurch. But it's now 2025, and Kodak the corporation is still around, so I don't know that my supposition: Kodak would be doing better today if they'd gone all in on digital camera sensor technology, is disproven by that fact.
ruined 11mo ago
car manufacturers can afford to experiment - it's not like they don't have room in the budget. and they did experiment. if you don't know GM's history with electric cars: they were positioned to execute a successful transition about thirty years ago, but they simply chose not to.
- AngryData 11mo ago
  As someone with a lot of family working in GM corporate, it seems like they were never really confident in it in the first place. So many of them scoffed at the entire idea of electric cars and most still do, even with their own lineup and having driven them themselves. They expected them to fail and never put in the actual effort to support it. It seemed like 80% of corporate were against it completely and without reason because they themselves were doing fine and could afford the gas on their free corporate car and massive discounted family purchased cars. And everyone below them fed their egos by spewing garbage about how well they are all doing with their high margin luxury trimmed cars without considering how they are pricing more and more people out of their entire brand each year.

iamgopal 11mo ago

The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could take couple of decades 2) electric Energy cost will rise significantly because so much charging and energy infrastructure required. 3) Battery will reach at par with gasoline and matured standardised comodity, that will be the perfect time to enter.

rootusrootus 11mo ago
I think #1 will probably play out to a certain extent. Perhaps as an oscillation between low and high as each wave knocks more gas stations out of business and refinery capacity offline. But I have to say, even low prices on gas won't make me go back -- I prefer my EVs in all regards to the ICE equivalents, with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips, which is not my use case. I hope #2 won't be the future. It's not as easy to just jack up electric prices because EVs are charging, because they are regulated, and electricity is used for way more than cars (if my napkin math is right, on average people will use around 30% more electricity if they go full electric). I expect that as a practical matter #3 is here now, it just hasn't filtered down to retail car sales in the US yet.
- bryanlarsen 11mo ago
  > with the sole exception of marathon (>450 miles per day) road trips I've done 4 3000km road trips and intentionally took the EV leaving the ICE vehicle at home. It's a better car, and we need to stop to bathroom anyways, so charging isn't inconvenient. Saving a few hundred dollars in fuel is nice, too.
  - gmueckl 11mo ago
    Long EV trips are possible amd convenient if there are enough chargers along the route. Sadly, this isn't the case on many routes in the US, at least. Europe is doing much better. I have no experience in other places.
    - 11mo ago

indubioprorubik 11mo ago

It was a new race- and they where so comfortable having won the IC-race and customer base! Now everyone and his dog got a new chance to compete- and they just didn't want to do that. And now every advance in battery and solar, will drive them faster out of those markets. These are not detached technologies- one completes the other.

Animats 11mo ago

Although Ford's CEO now gets it, Ford's product line doesn't reflect it yet. Farley has been bringing a few sample BYD cars to the US, for Ford people to drive around and to take apart. Farley dragged his executive team to China to see a BYD plant. They came back scared. But what Ford actually sells is 1) an F-150 converted to electric, 2) a Ford Mustang converted to electric, and 3) a Ford Transit converted to electric. They're all more expensive, and heavier, than their gasoline-powered versions. BYD shows that electric cars are cheaper if designed properly from the ground up. The problem is that the US no longer makes many cars. Mostly giant trucks and SUVs. Hauling all that mass around requires a huge battery, resulting in 3-ton vehicles.

denimnerd42 11mo ago
the mustang mach e is a purpose built EV. not a mustang with a battery back stuck in.
bastawhiz 11mo ago
> a Ford Mustang converted to electric I agree with your comment, but I'll be a little pedantic for a minute: As a Charger Daytona owner, I'd love to call the Mach-E a mustang, but it's really just borrowing the brand. Ford has said unequivocally that they'll never make an all-electric muscle car, which is a real shame. The Mach-E is a great car if you're turned off by a Model Y, but you wouldn't choose it over a mustang GT or a charger Daytona or a Camaro.
- lostlogin 11mo ago
  > Ford has said unequivocally that they'll never make an all-electric muscle car What’s the thinking here? Pandering to some market segment? It sounds like they are organising the deck chairs in the titanic. Edit: I tried looking into the comment. It seems he was referring to Mustangs specifically, which is weird as they do make an electric one (assuming you agree it’s a ‘real’ mustang). I’m confused.
  - grosswait 11mo ago

sofixa 11mo ago

> 'we were too late, abort' What do you mean, the ID series for the main VW brand have 7 upcoming models over the next two years (4 for the Chinese market, 3 for everywhere). > all established brands we know are left behind I wouldn't go that far. The Renault 5 is one of the best selling EVs in Europe, and all the reviews are extremely positive (it's a fun and good looking car overall, and accessible). They have the 4 rolling out, and the small Twingo coming next year. They've also managed to narrow down the time from concept car to production at scale to less than 2 years (which according to the article on the topic I read is very fast).

constantcrying 11mo ago

>I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'. How is VW aborting in any way? They do not have a new ICE Platform, they are totally all in on EVs. Whether that will work out is of course another question, but it is bizarre to bring up EV when there is also Stellantis, who do not even have a dedicated EV Platform for their cars.

reisse 11mo ago

I thought Toyota is doing quite well in emerging markets? However they skipped a lot of EV craziness and just do cheap-and-reliable ICE cars. I also never understood why established brands lobbied for EVs, and not against them. They clearly had no edge over Tesla and Chinese brands, why compete on rival's field?

lostlogin 11mo ago
Toyota hasn’t offered pure electric where I am, just hybrids. And they have only just started offering plug in models I can charge. I’d love a Corolla or Camri EV - I’m not sure what ‘the Corolla of EVs’ is considered to be.
- JojoFatsani 11mo ago
  It’s the Model 3, or maybe one of the Hyundai/Kia small EVs.

jeltz 11mo ago

WV seems to do amazingly in Europe so not sure what you are talking about. It is Tesla thaumt seems to be leaving the EV market with no new exciting models and making the European market hate the brand. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2025-half-year-europe-top-electric-car-brands-and-bev-models/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2025-half-year-eu...

LunicLynx 11mo ago
Reuters disagrees https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-swings-13-billion-euro-loss-q3-tariff-porsche-woes-2025-10-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...
- hshdhdhj4444 11mo ago
  That article says nothing about VW EV sales being poor in Europe. In fact it calls VW’s EVs increasingly popular. The losses seem to be due to a tariff hit in the U.S. and due to Porsche change in strategy to focus more on hybrids and ICEs (0possibky because they’re focusing on EVs through VW?).
- jeltz 11mo ago
  Seems to me like they largely agree. VW has issues caused by US tariffs and problems with Porsche but EV sales in Europe are growing and carries the rest of the company.
- rsynnott 11mo ago
  That's related to one relatively minor subsidiary brand (Porsche accounts for about 3% of VW AG's sales), and it's a _weird_ brand for them, in that, whereas in a given size category the relevant SEAT, Skoda, VW, Audi etc are all pretty much the same, Porsches are quite distinct. VW as a whole is fairly committed to electric. Like, that article notes that their European EV sales are good.

hshdhdhj4444 11mo ago

Let’s not forget the Japanese who decided they didn’t want to compete in EVs because they couldn’t use that platform in some of their heavy machinery so decided to get the Japanese government to push hard on hydrogen, at a time Nissan was making a nice push in EVs, which led to Nissan having to back out of EVs as well.

JojoFatsani 11mo ago

Dieselgate put VW on the back foot at almost exactly the wrong time in automotive history.

rsynnott 11mo ago

Huh? VW is the largest seller of electric cars in Europe. I'm not sure what makes you think they've given up.