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> They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as peo

> They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think. This is Softbank though, they're not really noted for great investment decisions (apart from Alibaba really early on). Like, my prior is that when Softbank invest in something, the growth is done (but then I am, very much, a cynic).

YetAnotherNick 1y ago
Softbank had 5% of Nvidia stock just before gen AI boom. Then they sold it when it was at its lowest. If they didn't it would have covered all their losses many times over with a profit of more than 200 billion dollars. It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend. [1]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-sells-entire-nvidia-stake-11549462246 https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-sells-entire-nvidia-st...
- baal80spam 1y ago
  Thank you - this is an insighful comment, in contrast to many knee-jerk reactions in this thread.
- lenerdenator 1y ago
  > It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend. When you realize that most investors at that level are degenerate gamblers, and that they're even worse about thinking "the Generals were due!" than your buddy who can't look away from the DraftKings app for more than five minutes, it's not so baffling anymore. The only difference is that when you have that much money, you own the casino.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    It is hard not to love the degeneracy of Son Masayoshi as a gambler. The trick is to not take it seriously. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21799821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21799821 Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital Management is a close second (lost $20B in two days, and basically brushed off margin calls while his highly overlevered bets were collapsing, incurring $10B+ of losses at the investment banks he worked with). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-... | https://archive.today/lM0SU https://archive.today/lM0SU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management
    - EFreethought 1y ago
      Son made most of his money with Alibaba. I think he made 500x or 1,000x his original investment. Absolutely crazy. Almost everything he has done since then has lost money. When I read that he is investing in something, I just assume it will end badly.
      - gottorf 1y ago
        Isn't that basically the venture capital model, though? Your winners go many times X, and the losers become worthless.
        EFreethought 1y ago
        At some point, a good VC would have a second winner. And if that is the VC model, then are the VCs smarter than everybody else?
        toomuchtodo 1y ago
        VC is just gambling with some status and ecosystem participation. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/charlie-munger-acquired-podcast-vc-venture-capital-berkshire-warren-buffett-2023-10 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/charlie-mung...
        chii 1y ago
        > At some point, a good VC would have a second winner. but you don't make the same type of deduction for lottery winners - surely a good lottery number picker should get a second win sooner or later!
        EFreethought 1y ago
        Lottery winners do not tell the world they are smarter than the rest of us, or go on podcasts, write op-eds or start websites telling the rest of us how the world should be run.
- defen 1y ago
  I'm not sad for Softbank missing out on $200 billion; I'm sad for not getting to witness how much more investment degeneracy that could have funded.
- lisbbb 1y ago
  I had 250 shares I bought on a tip and sold for a decent profit then NVDA moon-shotted later that year. That's the story of my stock buying life right there.
  - pirate787 1y ago
    I doubled my bitcoin profit and got out at $1,000!
    - DontchaKnowit 1y ago
      I got out of bitcoin when it was at like 50 dollars. Kill me
DANmode 1y ago
Broken clock is right twice a day.

YetAnotherNick 1y ago

Softbank had 5% of Nvidia stock just before gen AI boom. Then they sold it when it was at its lowest. If they didn't it would have covered all their losses many times over with a profit of more than 200 billion dollars. It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend. [1]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-sells-entire-nvidia-stake-11549462246 https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-sells-entire-nvidia-st...

baal80spam 1y ago
Thank you - this is an insighful comment, in contrast to many knee-jerk reactions in this thread.
lenerdenator 1y ago
> It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend. When you realize that most investors at that level are degenerate gamblers, and that they're even worse about thinking "the Generals were due!" than your buddy who can't look away from the DraftKings app for more than five minutes, it's not so baffling anymore. The only difference is that when you have that much money, you own the casino.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  It is hard not to love the degeneracy of Son Masayoshi as a gambler. The trick is to not take it seriously. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21799821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21799821 Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital Management is a close second (lost $20B in two days, and basically brushed off margin calls while his highly overlevered bets were collapsing, incurring $10B+ of losses at the investment banks he worked with). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-... | https://archive.today/lM0SU https://archive.today/lM0SU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management
  - EFreethought 1y ago
    Son made most of his money with Alibaba. I think he made 500x or 1,000x his original investment. Absolutely crazy. Almost everything he has done since then has lost money. When I read that he is investing in something, I just assume it will end badly.
    - gottorf 1y ago
      Isn't that basically the venture capital model, though? Your winners go many times X, and the losers become worthless.
      - EFreethought 1y ago
        At some point, a good VC would have a second winner. And if that is the VC model, then are the VCs smarter than everybody else?
        toomuchtodo 1y ago
        VC is just gambling with some status and ecosystem participation. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/charlie-munger-acquired-podcast-vc-venture-capital-berkshire-warren-buffett-2023-10 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/charlie-mung...
        chii 1y ago
        > At some point, a good VC would have a second winner. but you don't make the same type of deduction for lottery winners - surely a good lottery number picker should get a second win sooner or later!
        EFreethought 1y ago
        Lottery winners do not tell the world they are smarter than the rest of us, or go on podcasts, write op-eds or start websites telling the rest of us how the world should be run.
defen 1y ago
I'm not sad for Softbank missing out on $200 billion; I'm sad for not getting to witness how much more investment degeneracy that could have funded.
lisbbb 1y ago
I had 250 shares I bought on a tip and sold for a decent profit then NVDA moon-shotted later that year. That's the story of my stock buying life right there.
- pirate787 1y ago
  I doubled my bitcoin profit and got out at $1,000!
  - DontchaKnowit 1y ago
    I got out of bitcoin when it was at like 50 dollars. Kill me

DANmode 1y ago

Broken clock is right twice a day.