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They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as peopl
by lvl155 11mo ago
They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.
- ForHackernews 11mo agoGiven how poorly Intel and AMD have fared, it suggests the hardware moat is much deeper than the software one.
- ethbr1 11mo agoNvidia's moat is their pace of performance growth, which is hardware + software + cultural. If they skip a beat, or it becomes impossible to increase performance (TSMC node stumble or P4-style dead-end), then it won't take long for someone to catch up. If they keep executing on better hardware performance + software to support it? They keep the money spigot on.
- bmacho 11mo agoPeople are saying that nvidia doesn't have any moat for 20 years. And nvidia hasn't been dethroned, but grown into the largest company in the world in the meantime.
- ethbr1 11mo agoBoth realities are true. They don't have a moat... because their moat is their performance growth rate. If they stopped today, competition would flood in. But by the time competition catches up to Nvidia today, Nvidia has moved several steps ahead.
- raw_anon_1111 11mo agoNvidia doesn’t make hardware. It designs hardware. TSMC makes hardware.
- tverbeure 11mo agoYou can make the same comment for pretty much any company that outsources (some of) its production, and it’d be irrelevant, pedantic and off-topic every time. You’re also wrong. TSMC produces but a small part of the products that Nvidia sells: the silicon. They don’t produce any of the tens of thousands other components that go in a server.
- raw_anon_1111 11mo agoIts not being pedantic at all. Intel designs chips and manufactures chips. Intel’s major issue is not its design chops - some of its most advanced designs today are manufactured by TSMC. And calling the actual processor a “small part” of where Nvidia’s value is doesn’t jibe with reality.
- dawnerd 11mo agoNot to mention the US companies probably want to develop their own chips to get away from Nvidia too. I don’t really see why any company would want to base their entire business on the whims of nvidia.
- disgruntledphd2 11mo ago> They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think. This is Softbank though, they're not really noted for great investment decisions (apart from Alibaba really early on). Like, my prior is that when Softbank invest in something, the growth is done (but then I am, very much, a cynic).
- YetAnotherNick 11mo agoSoftbank had 5% of Nvidia stock just before gen AI boom. Then they sold it when it was at its lowest. If they didn't it would have covered all their losses many times over with a profit of more than 200 billion dollars. It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend. [1]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-sells-entire-nvidia-stake-11549462246 https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-sells-entire-nvidia-st...
- baal80spam 11mo agoThank you - this is an insighful comment, in contrast to many knee-jerk reactions in this thread.
- lenerdenator 11mo ago> It's just baffling they are still getting billions to spend. When you realize that most investors at that level are degenerate gamblers, and that they're even worse about thinking "the Generals were due!" than your buddy who can't look away from the DraftKings app for more than five minutes, it's not so baffling anymore. The only difference is that when you have that much money, you own the casino.
- toomuchtodo 11mo agoIt is hard not to love the degeneracy of Son Masayoshi as a gambler. The trick is to not take it seriously. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21799821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21799821 Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital Management is a close second (lost $20B in two days, and basically brushed off margin calls while his highly overlevered bets were collapsing, incurring $10B+ of losses at the investment banks he worked with). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-... | https://archive.today/lM0SU https://archive.today/lM0SU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management
- hank808 11mo agoSoftbank has literally done this before. Several years ago, Softbank sold it's Nvidia stake and later regretted it to such an extent that Masayoshi Son expressed his feelings by crying. They're only selling Nvidia stock now to fulfill a prior giant cash commitment to OpenAI. Also, Nvidia is positioned to own a sizeable chunk of OpenAI.
- djmips 11mo agoI was just thinking that they must be selling because they need the cash...
- estimator7292 11mo agoThe entire AI bubble think they know better than us. Thar doesn't means they're right.
- AnimalMuppet 11mo ago> Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think. Neither is OpenAI's.
- chii 11mo agonvidia's moat is still pretty strong and deep, while there have been many other models in competition with openAI's.
- arisAlexis 11mo agoThey sold all their stake in 2019 too look it up. For sure they know more then .. just missed a 40x bagger
- lonelyasacloud 11mo ago> Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think. SoftBank have holdings in Arm and likely to know what is coming down the pipeline.
- NullPrefix 11mo agoWouldn't that be insider trading?
- lonelyasacloud 11mo agoNo: SoftBank bought Arm in 2016, then refloated in 2023. They have good lawyers and a lot money.
- NicoJuicy 11mo agoSoftbank is the example that you could use against the conspiracy theorists. They may know more, but not that much more. > SoftBank has been a repeat investor in Nvidia. It sold off its investment before the AI boom took off and then bought the chipmaker's shares again before divesting in October to double down on its biggest investment bet, OpenAI.
- croes 11mo agoDoes OpenAI even have a moat?
- chistev 11mo ago>They probably know more than us. If they are privy to information that we don't know that led to this discussion, isn't that insider trading?