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The whole point of shale is that you can get it going again quickly and piecemeal based on the price of oil. It puts a large plateau/floor on oil at $~60 per ba

The whole point of shale is that you can get it going again quickly and piecemeal based on the price of oil. It puts a large plateau/floor on oil at $~60 per barrel which is geopolitically very useful.

alephnerd 1y ago
Depends, breaking below $60 per barrel does lead to significant layoffs and it's difficult to rebuild that know-how because knowledge isn't 100% elastic. The oil glut itself is largely because of the KSA and Russia in the midst of a mutual price war as well as the US expanding it's own production. That said, it's still an open question of whether a glut will exist or not - at this point it's China, India, and Japan that's become the primary driver for oil prices because they are getting similar deals from both KSA and Russia, and are trying to pressure other suppliers to give similar deals.
- actionfromafar 1y ago
  Easy solution, bomb more Russian oil infrastructure.
  - nradov 1y ago
    Sure, but we should do that anyway regardless of oil prices.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    1. A significant portion of that ONG infrastructure is in the Russian Far East - especially those that are furnishing the Asian market 2. Japanese, Chinese, Indian, and South Korean companies and SOEs all have significant stakes and investments in Russia's ONG infrastructure, such as Sakhalin-I (Japan's Mitsui Group and India's ONGC), Sakhalin-II (Korea's KOGAS and Japan's Tohoku Electric), and Power of Siberia (China's CNPC), so any attack on Japanese, Chinese, Indian, or Korean ONG infrastructure in Russia is viewed as a red line by these countries. 3. Saudi Arabia remains a competitor against Shale, and would continue it's price war against American Shale.
    - actionfromafar 1y ago
      Practically, Ukraine can’t reach that infrastructure anyway. Making western Russia an oil free zone will probably suffice.
      - alephnerd 1y ago
        But most oil exports that are subsidizing the Russian economy and providing forex are being exported from the Russian Far East. Hitting infra in Western Russia makes it painful for civilians and does have a psychological impact of highlighting to the Russia public how war has consequences, but by and large it doesn't do much given that Russia still has the capability to continue garnering foreign currency or operating with foreign markets. Furthermore, those strikes aren't truly crippling [0] to Russian ONG capacity and the associated sanctions won't have much of an impact given how diversified Russian ONG companies are [1], with JVs and stakes in Western ambivalent countries like China, Congo, Egypt, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and others. The psychological impact of such strikes cannot be understated, but it's not really painful for Russia given that they have chosen to dig in and believe that they can win an economic war of attrition [2] as it stands. If the much more isolated Maduro regime in Venezuela or the Khamenei regime in Iran are able to hold onto power, it's hard to see how these strikes can impact that Putin regime in what has become a war of attrition, especially when regional powers like Vietnam have begun pivoting back to Russia [3], and larger powers like China [4] and India [5] are doubling down on Russian investments. [0] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [1] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-new-sanctions-effects?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [2] - https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapter https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapt... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-from-vietnams-drift-toward-russia-and-away-from-america.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-fr... [4] - https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-russias-pivot-chinas-leverage-and-global-gas-implications/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-rus... [5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sanctioned-russian-firm-build-civil-aircraft-2025-10-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sa...
fraserphysics 1y ago
Yes! There's more oil in the ground than we should ever burn. The places where it's cheap to get out are ruled by unpleasant people. Shale limits the price they can charge. Yea shale. However, low prices encourage putting CO2 in the air. Boo shale. I wish we would find a better way to reduce use than paying unpleasant people high prices.
- consumer451 1y ago
  > Yes! There's more oil in the ground than we should ever burn. I don't think that everyone realizes what would happen if we did so. [0] > Our calculated global warming in this case is 16°C, with warming at the poles about 30°C. Calculated warming over land areas averages ~20°C. Such temperatures would eliminate grain production in almost all agricultural regions in the world (Hatfield et al., 2011). Increased stratospheric water vapor would diminish the stratospheric ozone layer (Anderson et al., 2012). My question is, what is going to stop this trajectory? https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/what-if-we-burn-all-the-fossil-fuels/ https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/what-if-we-burn-all-t...
  - silverquiet 1y ago
    Eventually human civilization breaks down to the point where we can no longer sustain the industry to extract the fossil fuels.
    - consumer451 1y ago
      So just to be clear: if we burn all of the fossil fuels that we know about, then we are guaranteed to end human civilization, correct? That is the plain truth, and we are going to keep making fun of climate activists until we get there?
      - lolollllllll 1y ago
        [dead]
      - 1y ago

alephnerd 1y ago

Depends, breaking below $60 per barrel does lead to significant layoffs and it's difficult to rebuild that know-how because knowledge isn't 100% elastic. The oil glut itself is largely because of the KSA and Russia in the midst of a mutual price war as well as the US expanding it's own production. That said, it's still an open question of whether a glut will exist or not - at this point it's China, India, and Japan that's become the primary driver for oil prices because they are getting similar deals from both KSA and Russia, and are trying to pressure other suppliers to give similar deals.

actionfromafar 1y ago
Easy solution, bomb more Russian oil infrastructure.
- nradov 1y ago
  Sure, but we should do that anyway regardless of oil prices.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  1. A significant portion of that ONG infrastructure is in the Russian Far East - especially those that are furnishing the Asian market 2. Japanese, Chinese, Indian, and South Korean companies and SOEs all have significant stakes and investments in Russia's ONG infrastructure, such as Sakhalin-I (Japan's Mitsui Group and India's ONGC), Sakhalin-II (Korea's KOGAS and Japan's Tohoku Electric), and Power of Siberia (China's CNPC), so any attack on Japanese, Chinese, Indian, or Korean ONG infrastructure in Russia is viewed as a red line by these countries. 3. Saudi Arabia remains a competitor against Shale, and would continue it's price war against American Shale.
  - actionfromafar 1y ago
    Practically, Ukraine can’t reach that infrastructure anyway. Making western Russia an oil free zone will probably suffice.
    - alephnerd 1y ago
      But most oil exports that are subsidizing the Russian economy and providing forex are being exported from the Russian Far East. Hitting infra in Western Russia makes it painful for civilians and does have a psychological impact of highlighting to the Russia public how war has consequences, but by and large it doesn't do much given that Russia still has the capability to continue garnering foreign currency or operating with foreign markets. Furthermore, those strikes aren't truly crippling [0] to Russian ONG capacity and the associated sanctions won't have much of an impact given how diversified Russian ONG companies are [1], with JVs and stakes in Western ambivalent countries like China, Congo, Egypt, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and others. The psychological impact of such strikes cannot be understated, but it's not really painful for Russia given that they have chosen to dig in and believe that they can win an economic war of attrition [2] as it stands. If the much more isolated Maduro regime in Venezuela or the Khamenei regime in Iran are able to hold onto power, it's hard to see how these strikes can impact that Putin regime in what has become a war of attrition, especially when regional powers like Vietnam have begun pivoting back to Russia [3], and larger powers like China [4] and India [5] are doubling down on Russian investments. [0] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [1] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-new-sanctions-effects?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1... [2] - https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapter https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapt... [3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-from-vietnams-drift-toward-russia-and-away-from-america.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-fr... [4] - https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-russias-pivot-chinas-leverage-and-global-gas-implications/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-rus... [5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sanctioned-russian-firm-build-civil-aircraft-2025-10-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sa...

fraserphysics 1y ago

Yes! There's more oil in the ground than we should ever burn. The places where it's cheap to get out are ruled by unpleasant people. Shale limits the price they can charge. Yea shale. However, low prices encourage putting CO2 in the air. Boo shale. I wish we would find a better way to reduce use than paying unpleasant people high prices.

consumer451 1y ago
> Yes! There's more oil in the ground than we should ever burn. I don't think that everyone realizes what would happen if we did so. [0] > Our calculated global warming in this case is 16°C, with warming at the poles about 30°C. Calculated warming over land areas averages ~20°C. Such temperatures would eliminate grain production in almost all agricultural regions in the world (Hatfield et al., 2011). Increased stratospheric water vapor would diminish the stratospheric ozone layer (Anderson et al., 2012). My question is, what is going to stop this trajectory? https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/what-if-we-burn-all-the-fossil-fuels/ https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/what-if-we-burn-all-t...
- silverquiet 1y ago
  Eventually human civilization breaks down to the point where we can no longer sustain the industry to extract the fossil fuels.
  - consumer451 1y ago
    So just to be clear: if we burn all of the fossil fuels that we know about, then we are guaranteed to end human civilization, correct? That is the plain truth, and we are going to keep making fun of climate activists until we get there?
    - lolollllllll 1y ago
      [dead]
    - 1y ago