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The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are. PS.
by abcd_f 11mo ago
The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are.
PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.
- JKCalhoun 11mo agoWell, maybe a whale making waves? Already happening today to Palantir—Nvidia to a lesser degree (whole market to a lesser degree). By close though the market they may well all end higher. We seem to live in a meme economy.
- fennecbutt 11mo agoThe economy is a meme and all the small fish praise the stock market meanwhile the big fish are fully prepared to run you all over and they will. They won't stop until it's all theirs.
- ambicapter 11mo agoWhat makes it an (almost) certainty?
- abcd_f 11mo agoPolitical volatility and the dirty nasty hustle on the Trump/republicans' part that will precede the mid-terms. Combined with the general state of bizarre market bonanza of the past few months. It's a powder keg just waiting for a match.
- JKCalhoun 11mo agoLong overdue? Fairly constant stream of bad news in other sectors of the economy?
- fragmede 11mo agoReminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.
- blitzar 11mo agoEconomist have predicted 179 of the past 7 recessions.
- darth_avocado 11mo agoPalantir has a market cap of $400B+ and Nvidia is $5T. This short translates to 0.225% and 0.00374%. This mostly translates to a thesis that the stocks would “probably” go down a bit than a bet that predicts recession.
- ambicapter 11mo agoWhat do the percentages 0.225% and 0.00374% mean here? Is that the size of his position relative to the company's market caps?
- jkelleyrtp 11mo agoIt seems like the economy is on a “K” shaped flywheel. How much worse can the economy get for the regular worker before the systems just pops? We’ve put so much speculation into an AI/tech salvation that seems premature, especially when you look at ROI vs depreciation timelines. I’m not sure what timeline to place on that but there has to be a floor for how bad it can get for the regular man. Shit is just expensive. Young people can’t buy houses, good jobs are drying up, and inflation isn’t stopping.
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- astrange 11mo ago
- legitster 11mo agoIt being a certainty is wrong, but there is a huge differential between the growth of total market value and the lackluster fundamentals, GDP growth, and jobs numbers. To put another way, there's a lot of "potential energy" being built up in the markets right now. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll pop like a bubble - but there's really no precedent for them to continue rising.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 11mo agoThat pre-tariff stockpiles have been depleted is going to make some hidden pain more visible.
- WheatMillington 11mo ago6 months ago you could accurately say there's "no precedent for them to continue rising". You may be saying the same thing 6 months from now.
- legitster 11mo agoIt could be true that the market can continue to grow well past 15% above fundamentals for the indefinite future. But the more it goes up, the more improbable it becomes. If you've flipped heads three times in a row, you're right that I would look foolish saying the next one can't be heads. But at the same time you cannot keep flipping heads forever.
- bdangubic 11mo agotrue on all accounts but comment like OP made is ridiculous. to say “for sure XYZ will happen to the market by this date” is childish/funny/insane. to say “eventually” there will be a correction is similar cause of course there will be. so all this talk about bubble and other shit is just nonsense all around
- fullshark 11mo agoHe has no idea, I'm guessing it's wishful thinking, likely from a political partisan, or someone with a lot of dry powder trying to enter the stock market after a correction.
- ericmcer 11mo agoWill it be another "correction" where it pulls back ~10% before going up another 15%? The powers that be have too much invested in the market continuing to move up, you are basically betting that Trump, a bunch of billionaires and the FED are going to let the market crash to curb inflation and income inequality. That feels like a bad bet to me.
- worik 11mo ago> going to let the market crash By their very nature the markets can overwhelm any desire to "[not] let the market crash]"
- ethbr1 11mo agoYes and no. Compounding market effects can. First order effects? There's a lot of firepower to blunt those. Especially when the person in the White House is scared about losing the midterms.
- worik 11mo ago"First order effects" I do not know what that means, I can sort of guess. By now is not the AI market beyond any sensible definition of "first order"?
- ethbr1 11mo agoI meant that the Fed, Treasury, etc. have powerful levels they can pull to head off initial effects. What can overwhelm them is if those effects cascade and compound into second-order effects, typically multiplied in magnitude. That's essentially what the fuck-up in 2008 was. The government let Bear Stearns fail because it could handle the effects. What it couldn't handle (or at least, was barely able to) were the second order effects of credit tightening, mortgage derivative repricing, counterparty trust loss, etc. etc. The government could absolutely prop up the AI bubble, possibly indefinitely. What it can't do is cover second order fallout, if it turns out a lot of risky money was somehow tied into the bubble.
- dpoloncsak 11mo agoI agree. I'm bullish long term on PLTR but with a 600+ EPS, a bit of a pull back may be healthy for it. With that said, Burry is often credited for "Calling 18 of the past 2 recessions". Even a broken clock....
- WheatMillington 11mo agoThere are no certainties in markets. I'm surprised you'd say this with so much confidence.
- bdangubic 11mo agois this post from 2018? or 2022? I keep reading exactly the same “predictions” here year after year after year… maybe 2026 is the year :)
- linsomniac 11mo agoA buddy of mine and I have been watching as investors he follows have been saying the market is going to have a major correction in the next 3-6 months for 3 years now. It definitely seems like the market is due for a major correction, but it sure hasn't happened despite repeated projections. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.