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How long until we see blockbuster movies produced by a guy in his basement for <$1000?
by amelius 1y ago
How long until we see blockbuster movies produced by a guy in his basement for <$1000?
- computerphage 1y agoI think "blockbuster movie" is a moving target, so it's a bit hard to know
- nine_k 1y agoIt's a relatively well defined measure of success though: a movie which is popular and high-grossing.
- computerphage 1y agoYep. Totally agreed that it's well defined. Only pointing out that the technical execution required will shift, which seems relevant because it's likely to make it take much longer than without this effect
- ivape 1y agoSoon as the video models can keep characters consistent across scenes. It could take months of prompting to get each scene, but regular movies have long shooting timelines too. If we ever get to instant movie, thought to scene, then movies will die since people will just daydream through the AI.
- hadlock 1y agoI can see soap-opera-style, video-manga becoming a thing, where you get 5x20 minute episodes a week, and an ai-generated 30 min super cut of the week's "events" every saturday. What if DragonBallZ, but new episodes drop every morning before your morning commute? And for $30 a month you can do a choose your own adventure where at the end of each episode, the story splits off and you get an alternate history version, but conveniently rejoins the main story by the end of the week. Three years ago we had a live streaming autogen-seinfeld twitch stream; some kind of coherent story telling via AI doesn't seem beyond reach today, the tools just haven't fully matured yet.
- ivape 1y agoYes, that sounds like one of the ways this can happen. I think children born in the next few years will look back in decades on the cartoons/tv shows/movies they made for themselves.
- jayd16 1y agoPeople can daydream for free now.
- neom 1y agoAs with many things of human ideation and creation: If they can't understand distribution, a long time.
- roarcher 1y agoNever. I've seen people instantly go from liking a static image to disliking it upon learning it was AI generated. The same applies to other kinds of media. No matter how "good" it is, knowing that it was created by an unfeeling algorithm ruins it for most people.
- danielbln 1y agoNever is a long time. The resistance will erode.
- roarcher 1y ago"People will like AI movies because it's inevitable" Circular reasoning. If you can't answer WHY people should come to like AI movies, then you have nothing to say.
- bryantwolf 1y agoPeople will like them when they’re good content. Right now we’re stuck in the in between where it’s kind of all or nothing ai, but it will get grayer when the feedback loops are tighter and building ai movies is more interactive. Same thing with any special effects really
- roarcher 1y agoI think AI has its place in special effects, but "making a blockbuster movie for $1000" requires replacing all the actors, music, cinematography, everything that makes a movie "art" except maybe the plot. And I have never seen anyone respond well to AI "art" of any form. I've seen some fairly passable (if a bit boring) AI music passed around on Reddit and it was universally met with disgust simply because it was AI.
- jonwinstanley 1y agoThis is defo true until the moment it gets so good people can't tell.
- Krasnol 1y agoI don't know how long it will take for photorealistic movies but I'm looking forward to that Hyperion animated movie I'd make myself because nobody wants or is able to.
- spogbiper 1y agohonestly i think there is a future in this.. "hey AI model, generate a movie from this book" may indeed be better than letting a director mangle it into something meant to sell tickets. most book -> movie adaptations are not setting a high bar
- mvdtnz 1y agoBased on that trailer we're a long, long way away. Ignoring the unsettling facial expressions of the human characters, there is zero visual (or audio) cohesion between the scenes. A full movie of such incoherent visuals would be a difficult watch.
- dfxm12 1y agoWe'll always be just a few years away.
- jayd16 1y agoUnless marketing and the guy's food doesn't count, never. But a "runaway hit for almost nothing"? Not unheard of.
- asimovfan 1y agoProbably will depend on how good the writing is.
- heavyset_go 1y agoBesides people with weird fetishes, who actually enjoys looking at AI "art"?
- nine_k 1y agoPhotos, movies, animation, recorded music, computer games, CGI props in movies, CGI characters in movies were all denounced as "not real art", until good counter-examples appeared. AI is but a tool; if there is an artist using them, real art can be created, as with any other tool.
- hirako2000 1y agoPhotos initially captured poorly but were still more affordable than paying a master painter, animation give life to static images, recordings allow listeners to play music without the need to attend, CGI makes for cheaper or infeasible reproductions. For all the cases where technology was adopted, it improved over what we had. So far, Ai generated videos, and arguably photos seem to only please wishful thinkers, or untalented artists dreaming to make it. I don't imply the tech will never get to the tipping point, but it so far provides so little value we are either many years to go, or it just won't happen. Let's be an optimist. It will eventually get there. I doubt for any of parallels you made billions of people hammered daily by overblown posts about the upcoming revolution. The reasons for critiques have a lot to do with promotion fatigue. Hyperboles eventually exhaust their impact.
- ToValueFunfetti 1y agoI enjoyed just about everything in here: https://andymasley.substack.com/p/a-ton-of-ai-images-ive-made-that https://andymasley.substack.com/p/a-ton-of-ai-images-ive-mad...
- aenvoker 1y agoI rather enjoyed some of these https://reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1lq299r/postscarcity_blues/ https://reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1lq299r/postscarci... https://reddit.com/r/midjourney/comments/1o6ickx/dreaming_on_the_train_home_paint_world_24/ https://reddit.com/r/midjourney/comments/1o6ickx/dreaming_on... https://reddit.com/r/midjourney/comments/1n6mzig/how_to_build_a_glorb_lord/ https://reddit.com/r/midjourney/comments/1n6mzig/how_to_buil... https://reddit.com/r/aivideo/comments/1nwdjdn/the_perfect_bowl_of_ramen_kling_25_suno/ https://reddit.com/r/aivideo/comments/1nwdjdn/the_perfect_bo... https://reddit.com/r/aivideo/comments/1m8a9wz/pinkington_rope_flow/ https://reddit.com/r/aivideo/comments/1m8a9wz/pinkington_rop... https://reddit.com/r/aivideo/comments/1n52kut/derek_the_aging_edgelord/ https://reddit.com/r/aivideo/comments/1n52kut/derek_the_agin... https://reddit.com/r/midjourney/comments/1muwyah/still_here_ai_music_video_made_with_midjourney/ https://reddit.com/r/midjourney/comments/1muwyah/still_here_... https://reddit.com/r/DefendingAIArt/comments/1mttoi4/my_not_real_art_series/ https://reddit.com/r/DefendingAIArt/comments/1mttoi4/my_not_...
- _--__--__ 1y agoI fully expect that we will see an AI video project that gets to Skibidi Toilet levels of cultural reach within the next two years, but 'blockbluster' implies a level of financial success that is much harder to predict.
- jay_kyburz 1y agoI've yet to see continuity working. Small clips is one thing. To have the same character, wearing the same clothes, revisit environments, with the same lighting and post processing is very different. I think we'll see AGI first.
- jsheard 1y agoThat and control, there's an enormous difference between letting a model just YOLO a prompt, filling in 95% of the details with vaguely plausible whatever, and getting a model to execute on a meticulously planned out shot with every last detail in order.
- doctorpangloss 1y agoThe main constraint to good movies is good actors and good scripts. So presumably an AI would have to write well or perform well to do that.
- dragonwriter 1y ago> How long until we see blockbuster movies produced by a guy in his basement for <$1000? Probably never. If AI is good enough to cover all the skills needed to do what would currently make a blockbuster movie for less than $1000, the demand for movies will be small enough relative to supply that there will be no such thing as a “blockbuster movie”
- xmprt 1y agoI don't believe that consequence. It's never been easier for someone at home to make short videos - see TikTok and YouTube. In fact most people consume most content on those platforms. Yet there's still high demand for movies and blockbuster movies still happen (usually driven by hype on the aforementioned platforms). On the other hand, I think the quality of movies and expectations will be a lot higher.
- dragonwriter 1y ago> It's never been easier for someone at home to make short videos - see TikTok and YouTube. In fact most people consume most content on those platforms. Yet there's still high demand for movies and blockbuster movies still happen This is obviously true, but I don't see how it relates to the question being discussed. "Short videos" and "blockbuster movies" are clearly widely separated categories, despite both being audiovisual content of some kind.
- dweekly 1y agoThe same argument could reasonably be used to explain why no YouTube influencer would ever get more than 1,000 subscribers - if everyone can upload videos that anyone can watch, nobody will really be famous because fame will become very evenly distributed, right?
- dragonwriter 1y ago> The same argument could reasonably be used to explain why no YouTube influencer would ever get more than 1,000 subscribers - No, that would require a radically different argument, in pretty much every way. > if everyone can upload videos that anyone can watch, nobody will really be famous because fame will become very evenly distributed, right? No, Youtube makes distribution cheap, but it doesn't substitute for most of the other things that differentiate between videos; most of the skills that provide variation between videos are still there, and not cheaply substituted via YouTube.
- imiric 1y agoIt depends on what you mean by "blockbuster movie", as even those can have awful visual effects. But a short film released a few months ago made entirely with video generation tools was surprisingly decent[1]. It still requires a talented "director" to have the right vision to guide the project, but the tools are there. Before we see this and higher level of quality accessible to enthusiasts, we'll see these tools adopted by mainstream studios first, which is starting to happen. I'm a firm "AI" skeptic, but if this technology has revolutionized anything, it has been image generation. A few years ago it was science fiction to have the quality of upscaling we take for granted today. I reckon the same will happen with video generation as well a few years from now. Unlike "ASI" and "AGI", these improvements are achievable with better engineering, and don't necessarily require a breakthrough. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44564697 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44564697
- willyxdjazz 1y agoWhen the printing press was invented, people didn’t start creating best-selling hits. Humans have always taken it upon ourselves to define what we consider success. Cheap things will always remain cheap…
- theendisney 1y agoNot 1000 but Star Wreck, iron sky and Kung Fury are pretty good. https://www.energiavfx.com https://www.energiavfx.com https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bS5P_LAqiVg https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bS5P_LAqiVg Im sure more wil follow.
- plaguuuuuu 1y agoI'm partial to this music video by Car Bomb, which is AI generated, but somehow manages to be fantastic. (loud music warning) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ohaFZllmUE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ohaFZllmUE