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Anecdotally, our company's next couple quarters are projected to be a bloodbath. Spending is down everywhere, nearly all of our customers are pushing for huge c
by legitster 1y ago
Anecdotally, our company's next couple quarters are projected to be a bloodbath. Spending is down everywhere, nearly all of our customers are pushing for huge cuts to their contracts, and in turn literally any costs we can jettison to keep jobs is being pushed through. We're hearing the same from our customers.
AI has been the only new investment our company has made (half hearted at that). I definitely get the sense that everyone pretending things are fine to investors, meanwhile they are playing musical chairs.
Back in my economics classes at college, a professor pointed out that a stock market can go up for two reasons: On one hand, the economy is legitimately growing and shares are becoming more valuable. But on the other hand, people and corporations could be cutting spending en masse so there's extra cash to flood the stock markets and drive up prices regardless of future earnings.
- BJones12 1y ago> Back in my economics classes at college, a professor pointed out that a stock market can go up for two reasons Reason #1 is lower interest rates, which increase the present value of future cash flows in DCF models. A professor who does not mention that does not know what they are talking about.
- topaz0 1y agoThat's a subset of "shares becoming more valuable"
- lotsofpulp 1y agoNot in the way legitser wrote: >On one hand, the economy is legitimately growing and shares are becoming more valuable The implication here is that output and productivity is growing. Not that money is becoming less valuable. A more precise term than “valuable” is purchasing power. Are Americans gaining purchasing power? Not really, because equity gains are being cancelled out by currency losses, if you’re an American that is lucky enough to even own significant equity.
- gehwartzen 1y agoI work for one of the largest packaging companies in the world. Customers across the board in the US are cutting back on how much packaging they need due to presumably lower sales volume. Make of that information what you will.
- chii 1y agocar manufacturers, right at the beginning of covid, started cutting orders of components from their suppliers, thinking that demand is going to drop due to covid induced recession. Guess what happened next?
- tyre 1y agoCovid was a black swan event. Unless we see something like the MBS collapse, the underlying economic weakness isn’t due to a such an acute root cause. Not sure how comparable they are.
- mtsr 1y agoI know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan event as COVID.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- watwut 1y agoBlack swan event should be unexpected. Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. It was also his second victory. And his moves after winning were not unexpected either - he is doing what his opponents predicted he will do.
- littlestymaar 1y agoA coronavirus causing a global pandemic at some point was even more expected though. And even the erratic government reactions to the pandemic was not entirely unpredictable either to be fair.
- bedhead 1y agoEcon professor espousing on the stock market lol. As someone with a couple dumb fancy Econ degrees and whose career has been quite good in the stock market, this comment made me laugh.
- Synaesthesia 1y agoWhy? Everyone knows the stock market can be irrational and disconnected from the economy.
- drunner 1y agoLikewise on all downward business signals at my employer. I was thankfully in school during 09, but this easily feels like the biggest house of cards I have ever experienced as an adult.