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Yeah, I really don't know what scenario leads to the US economy not dragging down the rest with it. Is there an argument that other economies would recover bet

Yeah, I really don't know what scenario leads to the US economy not dragging down the rest with it. Is there an argument that other economies would recover better than the US, in the long term? But at that point, one could just diversify during/after the crash.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Not investing advice. I diversified away from the US to international equities VTI -> VSUX starting at the beginning of the year. My thesis is that trade is rearranging due to US trade policy. If you look at the S&P500, growth has been flat since 2022 for anything that isn't Big Tech AI bubble. Therefore, I believe that between go forward US economic policy and global trade reconfiguration, non US will outperform the US over the next five years.
- rkomorn 1y ago
  Maybe not investing advice but reasonable-sounding nonetheless.
- matwood 1y ago
  I also adjusted some towards VXUS which was a great move in hindsight from fx alone. I bought property in the EU a couple years ago which is also benefiting from fx moves. With that said, the biggest US companies are pretty exposed internationally already. I'm not sure someone needs to or it would be prudent to say dump VOO and move to VXUS 100%.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    Agreed; to be clear, I still have US equities exposure, but it has been reduced to <50% of my total securities portfolio. This balances, imho, potential gains with managing risk around valuations. "Be fearful when others are greedy."
- mamonster 1y ago
  The thing is, if you accept the Trump Tariffmania (and the associated move to balance trade and export more), then the dollar would have to continue lower, so you (as a US investor) would benefit just on that thesis alone. It's the reverse for EU investors, where you have to now accept pretty big currency risks to ride the A.I train (If you add in the EUR/USD rally I think you're flat to negative on your SP500 as an EU investor for example).
adeelk93 1y ago
Which economy would you bet on, though? To recover in the long-term. In my mind they all give me reason for pause for various reasons
- rkomorn 1y ago
  No idea, personally. My question in the second paragraph was definitely not rhetorical. :)
Esophagus4 1y ago
Unfortunately, that seems to be happening already. YTD, US equities have underperformed most other equity indexes. The argument is that a weakened dollar, political / economic unpredictability, politicization of the fed, and big spending bills are starting to weigh on investors’ minds. Personally, I don’t think a dramatic “crash” is the most likely outcome. I think it would look more like a slow erosion of US growth and dominance compared with other economies. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/a-great-year-for-us-stocks-not-compared-to-rest-of-the-world https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/a-great-y...
- rkomorn 1y ago
  Yeah I kinda regretted writing "crash". Your comment lines up with my sentiment, though I don't put a ton of stock (pun somewhat intended) in mine due to "amateur" status. But I guess the "if not US, where?" question remains for me. Diversity "everywhere", try to be smartly selective?
  - Esophagus4 1y ago
    I am not a CFA, and this is not financial advice (and I believe you learn what people really believe by what they hold, not what they say :) ) So telling you what I hold: I’m long the market, mostly in US equities (60%), developed economy international equities 20%), and intermediate term US bonds (20%). My investment horizon is 20+ years, so in general, I don’t pay attention to the short term vol.
    - rkomorn 1y ago
      That's not too dissimilar from mine. I have cash I need to invest. I'm not looking to change any of my existing investments, so it's more a question of what the right move is there, with the wrinkle that I now live in the EU (again) after spending my whole adult life in the USA. I don't believe (or have interest) in making any short term moves. I don't think I need to (and feel very fortunate). We have the same 20+ horizon, but I guess the crux of the issue (and the point of my initial entry into this thread) is: how different do I think the world will be in 20+ years, and even if I'm confident it'll change, do I know what it'll become to make the right moves now? I don't think I do (and I'm somewhat skeptic anyone else really does either).

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Not investing advice. I diversified away from the US to international equities VTI -> VSUX starting at the beginning of the year. My thesis is that trade is rearranging due to US trade policy. If you look at the S&P500, growth has been flat since 2022 for anything that isn't Big Tech AI bubble. Therefore, I believe that between go forward US economic policy and global trade reconfiguration, non US will outperform the US over the next five years.

rkomorn 1y ago
Maybe not investing advice but reasonable-sounding nonetheless.
matwood 1y ago
I also adjusted some towards VXUS which was a great move in hindsight from fx alone. I bought property in the EU a couple years ago which is also benefiting from fx moves. With that said, the biggest US companies are pretty exposed internationally already. I'm not sure someone needs to or it would be prudent to say dump VOO and move to VXUS 100%.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Agreed; to be clear, I still have US equities exposure, but it has been reduced to <50% of my total securities portfolio. This balances, imho, potential gains with managing risk around valuations. "Be fearful when others are greedy."
mamonster 1y ago
The thing is, if you accept the Trump Tariffmania (and the associated move to balance trade and export more), then the dollar would have to continue lower, so you (as a US investor) would benefit just on that thesis alone. It's the reverse for EU investors, where you have to now accept pretty big currency risks to ride the A.I train (If you add in the EUR/USD rally I think you're flat to negative on your SP500 as an EU investor for example).

adeelk93 1y ago

Which economy would you bet on, though? To recover in the long-term. In my mind they all give me reason for pause for various reasons

rkomorn 1y ago
No idea, personally. My question in the second paragraph was definitely not rhetorical. :)

Esophagus4 1y ago

Unfortunately, that seems to be happening already. YTD, US equities have underperformed most other equity indexes. The argument is that a weakened dollar, political / economic unpredictability, politicization of the fed, and big spending bills are starting to weigh on investors’ minds. Personally, I don’t think a dramatic “crash” is the most likely outcome. I think it would look more like a slow erosion of US growth and dominance compared with other economies. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/a-great-year-for-us-stocks-not-compared-to-rest-of-the-world https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/a-great-y...

rkomorn 1y ago
Yeah I kinda regretted writing "crash". Your comment lines up with my sentiment, though I don't put a ton of stock (pun somewhat intended) in mine due to "amateur" status. But I guess the "if not US, where?" question remains for me. Diversity "everywhere", try to be smartly selective?
- Esophagus4 1y ago
  I am not a CFA, and this is not financial advice (and I believe you learn what people really believe by what they hold, not what they say :) ) So telling you what I hold: I’m long the market, mostly in US equities (60%), developed economy international equities 20%), and intermediate term US bonds (20%). My investment horizon is 20+ years, so in general, I don’t pay attention to the short term vol.
  - rkomorn 1y ago
    That's not too dissimilar from mine. I have cash I need to invest. I'm not looking to change any of my existing investments, so it's more a question of what the right move is there, with the wrinkle that I now live in the EU (again) after spending my whole adult life in the USA. I don't believe (or have interest) in making any short term moves. I don't think I need to (and feel very fortunate). We have the same 20+ horizon, but I guess the crux of the issue (and the point of my initial entry into this thread) is: how different do I think the world will be in 20+ years, and even if I'm confident it'll change, do I know what it'll become to make the right moves now? I don't think I do (and I'm somewhat skeptic anyone else really does either).