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Tech megacaps lose $770B in value as Nasdaq suffers steepest drop since April

88 points by rntn 1y ago

andsoitis 1y ago
One idea to fine-tune your perspective is to zoom out over time to form an opinion on how reactive to be. Often you notice that what seems like a big drop is either pretty common or pretty small. For instance, looking at the Nasdaq Composite over a few time horizons: - 6mo: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?window=6M https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?... - 5yr: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?window=5Y https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?... - Max: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?window=MAX https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?...
- techblueberry 1y ago
  How does this fine tune your perspective? Often small drops are followed by more small drops, if it falls by the same amount once per week for 16 weeks should we still not be concerned? Fine tuned for what?
  - koakuma-chan 1y ago
    What if it failed for 16 weeks? Would you sell? I think it's better to just ignore this.
    - techblueberry 1y ago
      There are other impacts from the stock market falling outside of the size of your bag. Would I sell? No, would I call my family members to make sure they don't need help, or see if they’re concerned about losing their job? Yes,
  - andsoitis 1y ago
    > , if it falls by the same amount once per week for 16 weeks should we still not be concerned? Correct, you should not be concerned. Time in market is more important than timing the market. Remember that when the market falls, you have not lost money, not unless you sell. You may even judge it to be a good buying opportunity since you might assess the new lower price to be more reasonable. Over time, a diversified portfolio will expand in value due to compounding, unless you are not a believer that the future will be better than the past. Take a look again at the charts - they spell it out clearly.
    - SeanAnderson 1y ago
      "Remember that when the market falls, you have not lost money, not unless you sell." This is such a bad take, lol. It's a thing meme traders say to cope. You absolutely have lost money. You haven't realized the losses, but you are definitely poorer and should re-evaluate your risk tolerances based on your current worth. You can take loans out using your stock portfolio as collateral. In attempting to do so, as you speak to a bank, they aren't judging you based on your initial capital investment. They're looking at the current valuation of your portfolio - unrealized gains/losses taken into consideration. That makes your current worth very real and tangible without needing to actually realize the gains/losses. If taxes didn't occur when you realized gains/losses then people would stop saying this phrase. It's just something said to try and prevent anxiousness from increasing your tax burden. Fundamentally, you lose/gain money whenever the things you own change value.
      - AaronAPU 1y ago
        This reasoning only makes sense if you weren’t already investing under the assumption of minor and major swings occurring.
      - andsoitis 1y ago
        > You absolutely have lost money. My point is the if you sell, you realize the loss. If you stay put, it will very likely be recovered AND have grown in time. Do you disagree?
  - mikeocool 1y ago
    Zoom out further
    - techblueberry 1y ago
      When I zoom out all the way, I see lots of times when people lost their life or retirement savings at an age it was inconvenient to do so. Like I literally don’t get what the original person was trying to say. Yes, if you’re perpetually holding for the long term nothing really matters.
      - andsoitis 1y ago
        > I see lots of times when people lost their life or retirement savings at an age it was inconvenient to do so. It is very true that it can be very very difficult for someone to absorb a drop in the market when they need that cash, like the case you mentioned. I also assume that there are many people who have been bitten by this. However, I have never seen data to suggest that statistically it is worse to be in the market because most people are likely to be hit by a huge drop that wipes out all their retirement savings and so they become destitute. I’m sure there are cases like that, but it is extreme and I would bet a minority of cases. Most people follow the advice of gradually shifting your portfolio to debt and away from equities as you age, to reduce this risk.
cs702 1y ago
To paraphrase an old saying incorrectly attributed to Everett Dirksen[a]: $0.77 trillion here, $0.77 trillion there, and pretty soon we'll be talking about real money. --- [a] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen#Misattributed https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen#Misattributed
hatradiowigwam 1y ago
This is large but not a black swan by any means. If you trade NQ for several years or more these movements should not be surprising. Even at after the drop, it is (in my opinion) absurdly overvalued, and has been for 5+years. That said… the advice about the market remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent applies.
- jfengel 1y ago
  The market has been overvalued for decades. Even the biggest corrections only take it down to a reasonable valuation. There is never a rational buying opportunity... except that people have lived their entire working lives without seeing a reasonable price. (Maybe... 1987?) It's very likely that Tuesday the market will see a buying opportunity and send it right back towards record territory. Which is insane. I think there is a genuinely new factor at work: so much money flows into the market that it has bought up all of the possible future earnings. That was all following reasonable advice, but that advice assumed that the market could absorb all of that money. If too much flowed in new capital opportunities would arise. But even before the AI bubble, that had ceased to hold.
  - bjtitus 1y ago
    The quote should be updated from "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" to "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain alive".
  - andrewmcwatters 1y ago
    At some point, inevitably, bonds have to appear more attractive. Until those, too, get bid up until their coupon rates become effectively worthless compared to bank deposits or worse, inflation.
    - immibis 1y ago
      At some point, all financial instruments look bad, but non-financial markets remain: it's possible to go out and buy goods and services, and it's possible this leads to a better end result than holding financial instruments as long as possible. Even when the market isn't bad, it's still a good idea to consider your balance between financial and non-financial assets. The whole point of holding financial assets is to eventually maximize your non-financial assets, after all.
AaronAPU 1y ago
This was a reaction to the China rare earth news. If and when that resolves it will simply revert back. It may very well be true we are due for a major correction or bubble pop but this wasn’t it.
- delichon 1y ago
  And to Trump slapping on a 100% tariff. Clearly a great decoupling is going to happen and it will be painful, the question is the timing. This is a plausible brink. From here, all that needs to happen to make it so is nothing. The current policies will do it.
  - Fade_Dance 1y ago
    I'm not sure this is a plausible brink. The initial "tariff board" situation was 10 times more severe than this, and additionally this is a repeat of the same playbook. This won't be the start of (further) major decoupling unless it's what China wanted in the first place, and they needed another 6 months of preparation before committing to the path. If China says "Go ahead and tariff us 100%. All rare earth exports and re-experts to the US are banned", then that's when to expect changes that won't be reversed any time soon. Everyone knows that Trump will blindly auto-escalate in response, so China saying so would mean "this is the outcome we prefer" and all that follows from there.
    - chneu 1y ago
      China has spent the last year(arguably the last decade) moving their supply chain to not rely on the US. Trump is about to bail out a handful of US industries because of it. Specifically agriculture has taken tens of billions of dollars in losses because China entirely stopped importing US soy and other crops in the last year. Trump's whole shtick is that the world NEEDS the US no matter what. He's absolutely wrong. China has heavily invested in countries to avoid this exact situation.
      - Fade_Dance 1y ago
diggan 1y ago
> on Nov. 1, would apply export controls “on any and all critical software,” pushing the technology stocks lower after hours. What sort of software would be impacted by this? Almost anything could be critical depending on the context.
- Fade_Dance 1y ago
  Semiconductor design pipeline software.
  - chvid 1y ago
    That is already under export control, with companies like Huawei already being completely shut out, yet being able to produce. Obviously plenty of Chinese alternatives exist at this point.
deleted 1y ago
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watwut 1y ago
It might be weird thing to say, but I eventually ended up finding tariffs and everything related to it "boring". It is getting into "yet again" category. It is announced, re-announced, changed, removed, added again and I dont care about the process of it. It will eventually settle somewhere. Stock market either react or dont based on how they feel. It has little to do with actual economical impact on companies, it does not seem to care about fundamentals either. It was fine for years with overpriced companies and itches to create yet another bubble. I get that everybody is hurt in the long term. But until actual investor billionaires class is actually really hurt financially, the rollecoaster will go round and round.
- Noumenon72 1y ago
  Like battles on the Western Front, the amount of interestingness from the daily headlines does not translate to there being no impact for people on the ground or for yourself over time. The headlines matter not as "was this an interesting story, taken on its own" but more as "in this process that takes years to play out, are we on the path toward a noticeably better or worse state of the world".
  - watwut 1y ago
    Yeah, but yet another tariff we know for sure will change, with yet another market going somewhat down, just so that it can continue trade again with no relation to how economy for average person is doing ... is not even change against what we knew two days ago. I have come to terms with world becoming worst and likely not getting better in my lifetime again. I know there is no way back, this has already been settled. There is no suspension on where it will all go.
MountDoom 1y ago
Google market cap has grown over 50% in the past six months. Nvidia was up nearly 70%. Tesla was in the same ballpark, I can't imagine why. Heck, Meta was up 35%, for no conceivable reason. So the headline here should be probably less about a small 5% hiccup in that Bitcoin-like trajectory, and more about why the heck is so much money pouring into the sector - including Tesla and Facebook, which aren't on the forefront of anything right now.
- philipov 1y ago
  On the forefront of regulatory capture.
- throwaway-0001 1y ago
  Maybe m2 money? But still can’t justify that. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
- smileson2 1y ago
  People have no idea what to do with their money right now
  - mjr00 1y ago
    Yep! The only thing anyone knows for "sure" is that cash is an absolutely terrible place to keep your money right now. Any kind of asset is better.
    - andrewmcwatters 1y ago
      This isn't true. You're all implicitly claiming that all assets return nominal value above inflation, which isn't even remotely true when we teach it to pimple-faced undergraduate students.
      - Pooge 1y ago
        This has been true ever since cash supply was controlled by central banks.
jmward01 1y ago
NVIDIA and Tesla are massively over valued right now. Both of them have valuations based on their potential for the future but the very real competition to both now makes their inevitable dominance a very far from sure thing bet. Tesla's brand is tarnished and their tech is lagging far behind global competitors and NVIDIA is seeing real competition from AMD, finally. Compute is too fundamental for a single company to hold all the cards. I can agree with the 'don't take every little blip seriously' mindset but there are real fundamental problems in the big players in the market right now that should cause concerns.
- TacticalCoder 1y ago
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- linuxftw 1y ago
  NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio is approximately 29.94, indicating the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of estimated future earnings. This ratio is lower than its trailing P/E of around ~53. How are they overvalued? They're making more money than ever in a rapidly growing new industry that is completely changing the landscape of the entire world.
  - deleted 1y ago
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  - kgwgk 1y ago
    “At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?” Written some time ago by the CFO of a company that was making more money than ever in a rapidly growing new industry that was completely changing the landscape of the entire world. (Not investment advice - it could be different this time.) > How are *they* overvalued? By the way, you forgot to mention that TESLA's forward P/E ratio is approximately 203.39, indicating the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of estimated future earnings. This ratio is lower than its trailing P/E of around ~259.
gsky 1y ago
A lot of people in tech are cheering for tech crash without knowing the consequences. Next crash will bring recession which lasts until the end of Trump administration given that he will never listen to experts. Most engineers will loose jobs and will replaced by new grads when the economy recovers. Tech industry keeps this economy going. Everyone should thank all those AI investments
- laughingcurve 1y ago
  It’s wild watching the supposedly most tech savvy place on the internet devolve into gnashing of teeth and wailing over development and progress. Hacker News? More like Grognard Complaints
  - disgruntledphd2 1y ago
    Devolve? People have been complaining about tech valuations and asset prices for the 12+ years I've been here.
- renewiltord 1y ago
  I've seen it happen numerous times. Everyone cheers the idea of "we need a crash, everything is overvalued" and then when it happens "the billionaires are doing this to us". It's just words. These are just the barnacles of society who are along for the ride.
- Herring 1y ago
  That's what banal evil looks like: shallow, clueless, greedy.
- bgwalter 1y ago
  At the end of 2023 the Nasdaq 100 was 15000, now it is 24200. The economy was better in 2023, before this "AI" nonsense and all the layoffs began. The bubble is more isolated than in 2000. If "AI" crashes, tech companies might focus on real progress again. At the beginning of 2019 the Nasdaq was at 6000 and the economy was even better, with ample jobs in the tech sector.
blindriver 1y ago
This brings the nasdaq back to September prices. It’s not a big deal.
- jfengel 1y ago
  It's not. Unless people believe it is, and they get out, bringing it back to August prices. And then more people get worried... Or people could see a buying opportunity on Monday and erase this all at once. And nobody can say which it will be.
nextworddev 1y ago
Kids soft these days complaining about 3% down days /s
chvid 1y ago
Let's add the story floating around crypto twitter about short trades from freshly created anonymous accounts done minutes before Trump's annoucement. Raking in hundreds of millions in profit. Clearly done by someone with insider knowledge and the intent to cover their tracks.
deleted 1y ago
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themgt 1y ago
There seems to be a lot of context missing from mainstream discussions of this. The broader context (afaict) is that after the trade war kicked off in April, the US and China agreed in Madrid in June to hold negotiations and otherwise not take new punitive measures. Last week, Department of Commerce BIS rolled out a new rule significantly expanding how and to whom export controls against China are applied, especially around semiconductors and other "dual-use" goods. China viewed this as a violation of the Madrid "trade ceasefire" and so this Thursday they turned around and unloaded the cannons of rare earth and other export controls, which if enacted would plausibly hobble the global economy and its AI capex sugar high. For whatever reason no one took this all too seriously until Friday when Trump flipped out on his truth social post, but the broader context is if anything more concerning because these escalations having been going on under the surface and now both sides are conveying they believe they have escalation dominance. https://www.dowjones.com/business-intelligence/blog/bis-50-rule-what-would-it-mean-for-businesses/ https://www.dowjones.com/business-intelligence/blog/bis-50-r... https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/09/new-bis-rule-expands-export-restrictions https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/09/new-bi... https://x.com/chorzempamartin/status/1976712782423712148 https://x.com/chorzempamartin/status/1976712782423712148 https://x.com/pstasiatech/status/1976693586571018586 https://x.com/pstasiatech/status/1976693586571018586
- chvid 1y ago
  Yep. I think Trump may actually want a deal with China but his admin is filled with China hawks and you obviously cannot have them running around doing their thing if you want a deal.
isuckatcoding 1y ago
Buy the dip. M2 money supply going up. Dollar going down. My prediction is we'll be at all time highs again a month from now.
- hearsathought 1y ago
  > Buy the dip. We've truly arrived at a strange time in history where a 1% drop is a considered a "dip". > My prediction is we'll be at all time highs again a month from now. If a global pandemic and a global trade war can't stop the market, seems like nothing will. The market will be bid up until whoever is in charge decides times up.
  - linuxftw 1y ago
    Nasdaq lost 3.47% and SP lost 2.71%. That's more than 1%, obviously. Very large downwards move.
    - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
      20% is a "large downward move". 3.47%? Not so much.
  - rsync 1y ago
    "If a global pandemic and a global trade war can't stop the market, seems like nothing will." What will stop the market is the sudden realization (among retirees and near-retirees) that all of this AI bubble talk is relevant to their interests because their equity index exposure is actually 1/3 mag7 exposure. They will, correctly, decide it is time to reduce equity exposure (possibly to zero, depending on age and situation). This is, potentially, a recipe for a very abrupt and disorderly rush for the exit.
abstractspoon 1y ago
[flagged]

88 points by rntn 1y ago

One idea to fine-tune your perspective is to zoom out over time to form an opinion on how reactive to be. Often you notice that what seems like a big drop is either pretty common or pretty small. For instance, looking at the Nasdaq Composite over a few time horizons: - 6mo: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?window=6M https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?... - 5yr: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?window=5Y https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?... - Max: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?window=MAX https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?...

techblueberry 1y ago
How does this fine tune your perspective? Often small drops are followed by more small drops, if it falls by the same amount once per week for 16 weeks should we still not be concerned? Fine tuned for what?
- koakuma-chan 1y ago
  What if it failed for 16 weeks? Would you sell? I think it's better to just ignore this.
  - techblueberry 1y ago
    There are other impacts from the stock market falling outside of the size of your bag. Would I sell? No, would I call my family members to make sure they don't need help, or see if they’re concerned about losing their job? Yes,
- andsoitis 1y ago
  > , if it falls by the same amount once per week for 16 weeks should we still not be concerned? Correct, you should not be concerned. Time in market is more important than timing the market. Remember that when the market falls, you have not lost money, not unless you sell. You may even judge it to be a good buying opportunity since you might assess the new lower price to be more reasonable. Over time, a diversified portfolio will expand in value due to compounding, unless you are not a believer that the future will be better than the past. Take a look again at the charts - they spell it out clearly.
  - SeanAnderson 1y ago
    "Remember that when the market falls, you have not lost money, not unless you sell." This is such a bad take, lol. It's a thing meme traders say to cope. You absolutely have lost money. You haven't realized the losses, but you are definitely poorer and should re-evaluate your risk tolerances based on your current worth. You can take loans out using your stock portfolio as collateral. In attempting to do so, as you speak to a bank, they aren't judging you based on your initial capital investment. They're looking at the current valuation of your portfolio - unrealized gains/losses taken into consideration. That makes your current worth very real and tangible without needing to actually realize the gains/losses. If taxes didn't occur when you realized gains/losses then people would stop saying this phrase. It's just something said to try and prevent anxiousness from increasing your tax burden. Fundamentally, you lose/gain money whenever the things you own change value.
    - AaronAPU 1y ago
      This reasoning only makes sense if you weren’t already investing under the assumption of minor and major swings occurring.
    - andsoitis 1y ago
      > You absolutely have lost money. My point is the if you sell, you realize the loss. If you stay put, it will very likely be recovered AND have grown in time. Do you disagree?
- mikeocool 1y ago
  Zoom out further
  - techblueberry 1y ago
    When I zoom out all the way, I see lots of times when people lost their life or retirement savings at an age it was inconvenient to do so. Like I literally don’t get what the original person was trying to say. Yes, if you’re perpetually holding for the long term nothing really matters.
    - andsoitis 1y ago
      > I see lots of times when people lost their life or retirement savings at an age it was inconvenient to do so. It is very true that it can be very very difficult for someone to absorb a drop in the market when they need that cash, like the case you mentioned. I also assume that there are many people who have been bitten by this. However, I have never seen data to suggest that statistically it is worse to be in the market because most people are likely to be hit by a huge drop that wipes out all their retirement savings and so they become destitute. I’m sure there are cases like that, but it is extreme and I would bet a minority of cases. Most people follow the advice of gradually shifting your portfolio to debt and away from equities as you age, to reduce this risk.

cs702 1y ago

To paraphrase an old saying incorrectly attributed to Everett Dirksen[a]: $0.77 trillion here, $0.77 trillion there, and pretty soon we'll be talking about real money. --- [a] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen#Misattributed https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen#Misattributed

hatradiowigwam 1y ago

This is large but not a black swan by any means. If you trade NQ for several years or more these movements should not be surprising. Even at after the drop, it is (in my opinion) absurdly overvalued, and has been for 5+years. That said… the advice about the market remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent applies.

jfengel 1y ago
The market has been overvalued for decades. Even the biggest corrections only take it down to a reasonable valuation. There is never a rational buying opportunity... except that people have lived their entire working lives without seeing a reasonable price. (Maybe... 1987?) It's very likely that Tuesday the market will see a buying opportunity and send it right back towards record territory. Which is insane. I think there is a genuinely new factor at work: so much money flows into the market that it has bought up all of the possible future earnings. That was all following reasonable advice, but that advice assumed that the market could absorb all of that money. If too much flowed in new capital opportunities would arise. But even before the AI bubble, that had ceased to hold.
- bjtitus 1y ago
  The quote should be updated from "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" to "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain alive".
- andrewmcwatters 1y ago
  At some point, inevitably, bonds have to appear more attractive. Until those, too, get bid up until their coupon rates become effectively worthless compared to bank deposits or worse, inflation.
  - immibis 1y ago
    At some point, all financial instruments look bad, but non-financial markets remain: it's possible to go out and buy goods and services, and it's possible this leads to a better end result than holding financial instruments as long as possible. Even when the market isn't bad, it's still a good idea to consider your balance between financial and non-financial assets. The whole point of holding financial assets is to eventually maximize your non-financial assets, after all.

AaronAPU 1y ago

This was a reaction to the China rare earth news. If and when that resolves it will simply revert back. It may very well be true we are due for a major correction or bubble pop but this wasn’t it.

delichon 1y ago
And to Trump slapping on a 100% tariff. Clearly a great decoupling is going to happen and it will be painful, the question is the timing. This is a plausible brink. From here, all that needs to happen to make it so is nothing. The current policies will do it.
- Fade_Dance 1y ago
  I'm not sure this is a plausible brink. The initial "tariff board" situation was 10 times more severe than this, and additionally this is a repeat of the same playbook. This won't be the start of (further) major decoupling unless it's what China wanted in the first place, and they needed another 6 months of preparation before committing to the path. If China says "Go ahead and tariff us 100%. All rare earth exports and re-experts to the US are banned", then that's when to expect changes that won't be reversed any time soon. Everyone knows that Trump will blindly auto-escalate in response, so China saying so would mean "this is the outcome we prefer" and all that follows from there.
  - chneu 1y ago
    China has spent the last year(arguably the last decade) moving their supply chain to not rely on the US. Trump is about to bail out a handful of US industries because of it. Specifically agriculture has taken tens of billions of dollars in losses because China entirely stopped importing US soy and other crops in the last year. Trump's whole shtick is that the world NEEDS the US no matter what. He's absolutely wrong. China has heavily invested in countries to avoid this exact situation.
    - Fade_Dance 1y ago

diggan 1y ago

> on Nov. 1, would apply export controls “on any and all critical software,” pushing the technology stocks lower after hours. What sort of software would be impacted by this? Almost anything could be critical depending on the context.

Fade_Dance 1y ago
Semiconductor design pipeline software.
- chvid 1y ago
  That is already under export control, with companies like Huawei already being completely shut out, yet being able to produce. Obviously plenty of Chinese alternatives exist at this point.

deleted 1y ago

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watwut 1y ago

It might be weird thing to say, but I eventually ended up finding tariffs and everything related to it "boring". It is getting into "yet again" category. It is announced, re-announced, changed, removed, added again and I dont care about the process of it. It will eventually settle somewhere. Stock market either react or dont based on how they feel. It has little to do with actual economical impact on companies, it does not seem to care about fundamentals either. It was fine for years with overpriced companies and itches to create yet another bubble. I get that everybody is hurt in the long term. But until actual investor billionaires class is actually really hurt financially, the rollecoaster will go round and round.

Noumenon72 1y ago
Like battles on the Western Front, the amount of interestingness from the daily headlines does not translate to there being no impact for people on the ground or for yourself over time. The headlines matter not as "was this an interesting story, taken on its own" but more as "in this process that takes years to play out, are we on the path toward a noticeably better or worse state of the world".
- watwut 1y ago
  Yeah, but yet another tariff we know for sure will change, with yet another market going somewhat down, just so that it can continue trade again with no relation to how economy for average person is doing ... is not even change against what we knew two days ago. I have come to terms with world becoming worst and likely not getting better in my lifetime again. I know there is no way back, this has already been settled. There is no suspension on where it will all go.

MountDoom 1y ago

Google market cap has grown over 50% in the past six months. Nvidia was up nearly 70%. Tesla was in the same ballpark, I can't imagine why. Heck, Meta was up 35%, for no conceivable reason. So the headline here should be probably less about a small 5% hiccup in that Bitcoin-like trajectory, and more about why the heck is so much money pouring into the sector - including Tesla and Facebook, which aren't on the forefront of anything right now.

philipov 1y ago
On the forefront of regulatory capture.
throwaway-0001 1y ago
Maybe m2 money? But still can’t justify that. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
smileson2 1y ago
People have no idea what to do with their money right now
- mjr00 1y ago
  Yep! The only thing anyone knows for "sure" is that cash is an absolutely terrible place to keep your money right now. Any kind of asset is better.
  - andrewmcwatters 1y ago
    This isn't true. You're all implicitly claiming that all assets return nominal value above inflation, which isn't even remotely true when we teach it to pimple-faced undergraduate students.
    - Pooge 1y ago
      This has been true ever since cash supply was controlled by central banks.

jmward01 1y ago

NVIDIA and Tesla are massively over valued right now. Both of them have valuations based on their potential for the future but the very real competition to both now makes their inevitable dominance a very far from sure thing bet. Tesla's brand is tarnished and their tech is lagging far behind global competitors and NVIDIA is seeing real competition from AMD, finally. Compute is too fundamental for a single company to hold all the cards. I can agree with the 'don't take every little blip seriously' mindset but there are real fundamental problems in the big players in the market right now that should cause concerns.

TacticalCoder 1y ago
[dead]
linuxftw 1y ago
NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio is approximately 29.94, indicating the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of estimated future earnings. This ratio is lower than its trailing P/E of around ~53. How are they overvalued? They're making more money than ever in a rapidly growing new industry that is completely changing the landscape of the entire world.
- deleted 1y ago
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- kgwgk 1y ago
  “At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?” Written some time ago by the CFO of a company that was making more money than ever in a rapidly growing new industry that was completely changing the landscape of the entire world. (Not investment advice - it could be different this time.) > How are *they* overvalued? By the way, you forgot to mention that TESLA's forward P/E ratio is approximately 203.39, indicating the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of estimated future earnings. This ratio is lower than its trailing P/E of around ~259.

gsky 1y ago

A lot of people in tech are cheering for tech crash without knowing the consequences. Next crash will bring recession which lasts until the end of Trump administration given that he will never listen to experts. Most engineers will loose jobs and will replaced by new grads when the economy recovers. Tech industry keeps this economy going. Everyone should thank all those AI investments

laughingcurve 1y ago
It’s wild watching the supposedly most tech savvy place on the internet devolve into gnashing of teeth and wailing over development and progress. Hacker News? More like Grognard Complaints
- disgruntledphd2 1y ago
  Devolve? People have been complaining about tech valuations and asset prices for the 12+ years I've been here.
renewiltord 1y ago
I've seen it happen numerous times. Everyone cheers the idea of "we need a crash, everything is overvalued" and then when it happens "the billionaires are doing this to us". It's just words. These are just the barnacles of society who are along for the ride.
Herring 1y ago
That's what banal evil looks like: shallow, clueless, greedy.
bgwalter 1y ago
At the end of 2023 the Nasdaq 100 was 15000, now it is 24200. The economy was better in 2023, before this "AI" nonsense and all the layoffs began. The bubble is more isolated than in 2000. If "AI" crashes, tech companies might focus on real progress again. At the beginning of 2019 the Nasdaq was at 6000 and the economy was even better, with ample jobs in the tech sector.

blindriver 1y ago

This brings the nasdaq back to September prices. It’s not a big deal.

jfengel 1y ago
It's not. Unless people believe it is, and they get out, bringing it back to August prices. And then more people get worried... Or people could see a buying opportunity on Monday and erase this all at once. And nobody can say which it will be.

nextworddev 1y ago

Kids soft these days complaining about 3% down days /s

chvid 1y ago

Let's add the story floating around crypto twitter about short trades from freshly created anonymous accounts done minutes before Trump's annoucement. Raking in hundreds of millions in profit. Clearly done by someone with insider knowledge and the intent to cover their tracks.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

themgt 1y ago

There seems to be a lot of context missing from mainstream discussions of this. The broader context (afaict) is that after the trade war kicked off in April, the US and China agreed in Madrid in June to hold negotiations and otherwise not take new punitive measures. Last week, Department of Commerce BIS rolled out a new rule significantly expanding how and to whom export controls against China are applied, especially around semiconductors and other "dual-use" goods. China viewed this as a violation of the Madrid "trade ceasefire" and so this Thursday they turned around and unloaded the cannons of rare earth and other export controls, which if enacted would plausibly hobble the global economy and its AI capex sugar high. For whatever reason no one took this all too seriously until Friday when Trump flipped out on his truth social post, but the broader context is if anything more concerning because these escalations having been going on under the surface and now both sides are conveying they believe they have escalation dominance. https://www.dowjones.com/business-intelligence/blog/bis-50-rule-what-would-it-mean-for-businesses/ https://www.dowjones.com/business-intelligence/blog/bis-50-r... https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/09/new-bis-rule-expands-export-restrictions https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/09/new-bi... https://x.com/chorzempamartin/status/1976712782423712148 https://x.com/chorzempamartin/status/1976712782423712148 https://x.com/pstasiatech/status/1976693586571018586 https://x.com/pstasiatech/status/1976693586571018586

chvid 1y ago
Yep. I think Trump may actually want a deal with China but his admin is filled with China hawks and you obviously cannot have them running around doing their thing if you want a deal.

isuckatcoding 1y ago

Buy the dip. M2 money supply going up. Dollar going down. My prediction is we'll be at all time highs again a month from now.

hearsathought 1y ago
> Buy the dip. We've truly arrived at a strange time in history where a 1% drop is a considered a "dip". > My prediction is we'll be at all time highs again a month from now. If a global pandemic and a global trade war can't stop the market, seems like nothing will. The market will be bid up until whoever is in charge decides times up.
- linuxftw 1y ago
  Nasdaq lost 3.47% and SP lost 2.71%. That's more than 1%, obviously. Very large downwards move.
  - AnimalMuppet 1y ago
    20% is a "large downward move". 3.47%? Not so much.
- rsync 1y ago
  "If a global pandemic and a global trade war can't stop the market, seems like nothing will." What will stop the market is the sudden realization (among retirees and near-retirees) that all of this AI bubble talk is relevant to their interests because their equity index exposure is actually 1/3 mag7 exposure. They will, correctly, decide it is time to reduce equity exposure (possibly to zero, depending on age and situation). This is, potentially, a recipe for a very abrupt and disorderly rush for the exit.

abstractspoon 1y ago

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