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Gold Prices Top $4k for First Time
- klaussilveira 1y agoTime to dump VTI?
- thinkindie 1y agoit depends on your investment horizon - if you don't expect to cash in any time soon you can just sit this one out, and historically it should get better over time (with some opportunities in the meantime).
- woeirua 1y agoGold has historically underperformed VTI badly. This might just be a small blip. Who knows.
- jader201 1y agoWhy? VTI has been hitting ATH since July. Almost everything is performing well right now, which is why I don't think this is news, particularly.
- monero-xmr 1y agoBitcoin all time high this week also
- beeflet 1y agoI am skeptical about the price action of bitcoin due to the influence of a certain michael saylor.
- otterley 1y agoI've been long on gold since Trump started going crazy with tariffs. You can't tax imports without having its effects percolate throughout the economy eventually. I'm also reacting to what I think is a growing AI asset bubble that will pop at some point (it's not a question of if but when). Most of my savings was in SPX (S&P 500 ETF), but over the course of the year I've been progressively exchanging more of it for GLD (ETF). It's been a good strategy for me so far.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- jrussino 1y ago> I've been progressively exchanging Is there a way for a small individual investor to "exchange" shares in stock without doing a "sell A + buy B" for which the sale of A is subject to capital gains tax? Some cursory googling points me to "exchange funds", but those seem to be designed for accredited investors. The advice I see for someone like me who wants to "re-balance" is just to change allocations for any new investments, but I'm wondering if there's an effective way to shift existing allocations without incurring a tax penalty...
- bluGill 1y agoMost small investors have money only in retirement accounts which don't pay taxes. Now you should mostly not play with that money (just put in good funds which rebalance for you) but taking 5% to play is fine. Just don't lose it all and then take another 5% until it is gone. outside of that just rebalance only every other year is your best plan - but it means only buying things you can hold that long.
- gniv 1y agoNo and that's probably a big reason why a lot of folks are not selling. Why incur a 23.8% tax based on.. feelings?
- dboreham 1y agoEither tax-deferred account or tax loss harvesting.
- tmn 1y agoNo
- hatradiowigwam 1y agoFour things are happening (and one of them is gold) that make a terrifying situation. Facts: - Gold has reached all time highs - US debt (ie T-bills) selling at all time lows - US equities are at all time highs - USD falling day over day, month over month, year over year All 4 of those facts cannot remain true indefinitely. The all time high equity prices are because it requires more USD(which is decreasing in value) to purchase them. Gold is at all time highs because USD is decreasing in value, and the flight to safety leads people to gold. US debt is falling in value because no one wants to buy it. At some point, equities will give up and crash, or gold will have to crash....and I don't think it's going to be gold crashing. edit: formatting
- jadbox 1y agoIn such a climate, what could be good less-risky strategies for holding reserves?
- SoftTalker 1y agoCash in the bank so you can buy equities at the bottom.
- AbstractH24 1y agoHow do in know when that would be?
- SoftTalker 1y agoWell that's the trick isn't it.
- hdgvhicv 1y agoJust catch the falling knife and avoid the dead cat bounce
- layer8 1y agoYou don’t.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 1y agoIn a sense, it is not surprising. The surprising part is the apparent overall yawn from.. well, everyone. One could easily argue that the current situation is, to put it mildly, problematic. And I am not just talking fiscal, or financial, or geopolitical. It is somehow all of these and yet, due to some interesting level of crisis fatiue, most are shrugging it off. 4k seems high, but it merely reflects current perpcetions and still does not crazy. My pet theory is that.. there is no safe haven this time so money is all over the place. edit: I am mostly in bonds with some gambles here and there, but that was my position since the begining of this year.
- anonzzzies 1y agoThe fatigue is that everyone keeps telling everyone will crash and it cannot last, for a what, a decade now? But especially the last few years. And then it just doesn't happen. Crypto will crash, gold cannot last, S&P is overheated etc and yet everything I have and other people have is going straight up. It has to go down, but at least when people said in 1998 a bubble is coming and will crash, it only took 2-3 years for it to blow up. Now it just goes and goes and goes. I think that gives fatique. I am spread, including local real estate and companies, but I missed a lot of money listening to people (and my own feelings) to think we were too high. Everything has to actually crash very hard to still not make a good profit and that it won't, at least not when we don't see it coming.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 1y agoThat is fair. I think you are onto something. I did miss out on some things as well, because I played very conservatively ( and at this point I am not that willing to change much ). Still, my own house appreciated a ridiculous amount. I see other assets appreciate as well ( just not as dramatically ).. I don't know how it can stay at these levels without some major re-alignment.
- mmcclure 1y agoI think this is overall fair/accurate in terms of crash fatigue, but crypto has crashed by 85+% multiple times in the last decade. I'm not sure that's the best proof point in this list of things that don't actually happen.
- tclancy 1y agoSomeone tell the 24 hour news channels to change the ads from "We sell gold" to the "Have gold laying around the house? We buy it".
- x______________ 1y agoIt was done during the pandemic, you gotta let people resupply!
- ak_111 1y agoI always wonder why gold going this high is seen as bearish to the dollar as the US currently holds 8,133.46 metric tons of gold, more than the next three top holders combined (Germany, France and Italy) and almost twice as much as China and Russia combined (although no one really knows how much China holds). So I would be far more concerned on the impact of gold price going high on other currencies that are not backed by as much gold before worrying about the US.
- carlosjobim 1y agoThe US dollar is in no way, shape, or form backed by gold.
- ak_111 1y agoI know, my point is that it is not directly backed by gold, but indirectly you can make the point there astronomical gold reserve comes into play if gold prices go insanely high.
- randallsquared 1y agoThe US GDP in 2024 was 30+ trillion. A single trillion in gold (8133t) is not an astronomical amount of gold, even though it's more than any other owner. In fact, all the gold ever mined is only ~220000 tonnes, so US GDP is higher than all the gold above ground at $4000/oz troy.
- kipchak 1y agoThe risk to the dollar is a flight to gold causing an decrease in interest of buyers purchasing treasuries, resulting in higher rates paid to buyers of this debt. To give a sense of scale the US issues something like 1-2 Trillion in new treasuries a year, which is roughly the value of all 8,133.46 tons if sold at current market price. For example a 2% increase in rate on 1T in 30Y treasury issuance over 30 years is $600B.
- giancarlostoro 1y agoSilver too is also at an interesting nearly $50 for an ounce. It was in the $20 range not that long ago.
- hdgvhicv 1y agoBut in 2011 and 1979 it was at this level
- AnimalMuppet 1y ago1979 was because someone cornered the market. Silver fell then when they got a $1 billion margin call. So, that one isn't really comparable (unless something similar is going on now, which would be interesting if anyone has evidence.)
- nlh 1y agoBackground: I’m a full-time rare coin dealer (and software engineer, which is why I’m here haha). One of the fascinating things happening in this market is that there’s a massive disconnect between the spot price of gold ($4000), which is driven and set by massive trades and hedges on international commodities exchanges, and the supply and demand for actual physical gold - the kind that’s sold at Costco in bars or by the US mint in 1oz coins. Since so much activity is driven by futures contracts online (without physical settlement), this disconnect means that the average consumer more or less is either holding physical gold they already have or selling physical gold they already have to cash out at these historic levels. There just aren’t a lot of regular people out there who are saying “yeah I want lots of gold at $4000/oz”. So brick and mortar dealers are being flooded with gold in their shops these days, and the supply chain looks pretty wild - tons of that physical gold is going to refineries who are melting it down and shipping it off as physical collateral for the futures contracts - but the big buyers out there don’t actually want or need all this expensive physical gold. The price spike isn’t because all of a sudden there’s increased demand for physical gold - it’s just a financial instrument at this point that happens to have a physical counterpart. None of this is to say there’s a problem with this - it’s just fascinating that net result of this huge spike is lots of jewelry and old coins being melted into bricks of gold that will sit quietly in secure warehouses and vaults around the world.
- naldb 1y agoIsn’t it just inflation. As time passes there is more fiat in circulation, which means fiat is worth less, which means you need more fiat to buy the same amount of gold.
- nlh 1y agoThat’s certainly part of it (and the argument most gold bugs make as to why we should all be buying gold), but gold has gone up 133% in the last 3 years which is wayyyyy beyond inflation tracking.
- AnimalMuppet 1y agoGold can be an asset. But the way it functions as a financial instrument is more like a short against fiat currency. That is, when inflation starts (or at least when it comes to peoples' attention), gold will move by more than the amount of inflation. When peoples' awareness of inflation goes down, gold goes down, even if inflation is still greater than zero. Note well: This is my impression. I have not tested this hypothesis against historical data.
- MountDoom 1y agoGold price in 1973 was around $60, so if your thesis is that "something must happen", it might be worth asking why the same thing didn't happen when it crossed $200, $500, $1000, $2000, or $3000.
- ak_111 1y agoActually things did happen in 2001 (9-11), 2008 (GFC), 2012-2015 (Eurozone crisis), 2020 (Covid) and 2022 (Russio-Nato war). Each of these came very close for a major market depression (except 911). The fact that none did only instilled in lots of people's brain to take an incremental bit more insurance in the form of gold (if you were to replay Covid or GFC today, what odds do you put that it won't lead to a great depression?) Also you can argue that the gradual rise is tracking almost exactly the gradual geopolitical paradigm shift from unipolarity to multipolrity.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- beeflet 1y agonothing ever happens
- hatradiowigwam 1y agoGold's price is only half the story here. The other half of the story is the value of US debt and US currency(USD). When they move in opposite directions - historically - /one/ of those instruments crashes. Choosing a side and putting your money behind it is dangerous, but also lucrative.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- carlosjobim 1y agoGold's price is of course increasing equally in all currencies in the world, not only USD.
- purple_ferret 1y agoCurious how this is affecting jewelers. Was blown away at how expensive gold earrings have gotten.
- jader201 1y agoRelated: Gold hits all time high (goldprice.org) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45417805 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45417805 (7 days ago, 88 points, 134 comments)
- rayiner 1y agoI know little about monetary policy, so this is a genuine question. What’s the non-kooky explanation for why there was a big economic divergence between income and productivity in the U.S. that appears to have started at the same time as the U.S. ended the convertibility of dollars to gold. https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
- sph 1y agoYou already wrote the answer in your question, but for some reason believe it kooky.
- sleepyguy 1y agoTony, Parker and Rick are going to do real well this season...hehehe....
- elif 1y agoReminder for anyone outside of the country or not paying attention: there is a non-zero chance that the leader is following a project 25 plan which necessarily involves intentional economic failure to create the necessary conditions for an authoritarian state. Some of the theorization around this desired state of affairs involves possible structural changes to USD or national debt.
- testing22321 1y agoIt seems like defaulting on the national debt will create the conditions needed to cancel the election at the very least