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Isn't there a sweet spot where solar is too much of your energy mix -- due to its intermittency? I think I read that once you get to like 40%, you need to spen
by timmg 1y ago
Isn't there a sweet spot where solar is too much of your energy mix -- due to its intermittency? I think I read that once you get to like 40%, you need to spend a lot more on storage.
Is the EU also ramping up (battery?) storage? Or are they getting near the max of what they can do with solar? (Or do I have it all wrong :/ )
- pfdietz 1y agohttps://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/outlooks/european-market-outlook-for-battery-storage-2025-2029/detail https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/outlooks/european-... Six-fold increase in battery capacity in Europe predicted by 2029.
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- adgjlsfhk1 1y agonot really. At this point, solar is basically free, and having extra free energy has all sorts of benefits. For the EU, in particular, it greatly reduces their dependence on Russian oil and gas. if all you do with extra solar is replace 2 extra hours a day of natural gas consumption, you effectively make yourself have 12% more storage, which decreases Russian leverage.
- pzo 1y agohttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country?country=~OWID_EU27 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-sou... in EU: gas, oil is still 60% of usage. You are not going to heat you home during winter with electricity anytime soon, same like we are not all gonna drive electric cars this decade.
- tpm 1y agoPlenty of people are heating their homes with electricity already, that's what heat pumps are for.
- inglor_cz 1y agoNorth of the Alps, using solar to heat your home in the winter is unrealistic. In Czechia, winter is already dark enough to make solar in the coldest months a rounding error. Further north, uh.
- tpm 1y agoI'm sorry but this thread does not talk about using PV to heat your home in the winter. But it is absolutely possible to use electricity to heat homes, it's widely used in northern countries. And the nice thing about electricity is that it can be generated in one place and used in another.
- inglor_cz 1y agoThis thread is talking about reduction of dependence on oil&gas supplied by various nefarious regimes, though. Still quite a challenge in the winter, with barely any sun out there. "it can be generated in one place and used in another." It can, but we are far from having such a robust grid all across the continent. I am not even sure if we are getting closer. Both economic and political aspects come into play, which might be harder to address than the purely technical ones. For example, France really does not want cheap Spanish solar energy to flood the French market, hence the inadequate connection over the Pyrenees. Everyone knows that, including the European Commission, but France is one of the two really big continental players who can do anything they want and cannot be effectively punished. The "everyone is equal, but some are more equal" principle.
- tpm 1y agoYes, there are and will be issues. We should have started much sooner. But we absolutely have to do this.
- timerol 1y agoI don't know of any specific thresholds, but it's worth mentioning that 54% of Q2 was renewable, and solar peaks in Q2. Solar was also only 36.8% of that renewable generation (just under 20% of Q2's total), so there's a long way to go before solar is 40% of the total energy mix. If there is an important threshold when solar reaches 40% of the full year's production, then solar will need to almost quadruple before that's a concern. For all of 2024, solar was 22.4% of renewables, and renewables were 47% of the total[1], meaning that solar was 10.5% of total electricity over the full year. [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20250319-1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/...
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- Energieclaskdfj 1y ago[dead]
- 0cf8612b2e1e 1y agoI hope not. More times when electricity prices go negative is hopefully going to open up new market opportunities (outside crypto mining). Generating chemical feedstocks from CO2, intermittent desalination, whatever process which is predicated on cheap energy.
- StopDisinfo910 1y agoThe issue is not sorely about negative price. It’s about keeping base capacity profitable so the grid doesn’t collapse. The energy strategy of the EU was hopeless for a long time and is only marginally better now. It’s not as braindead as the monetary union but close. Germany was actively sabotaging France for a long time while having to restart coal power plants and investing in gas fuelled capacity. Sadly the union is heavily unbalanced since the UK left.
- foobarian 1y agoPray tell, why is the monetary union braindead? Asking for a friend stockpiling lire for collection value
- StopDisinfo910 1y agoIt’s a monetary union with no common fiscal policies and no mechanism to correct disparity between members. Complete train wreck since it has been put in place. Germany has been abusing it from the start running huge trade surplus, compressing salaries, using its excess savings to buy foreign debts instead of investing and being shielded from monetary appreciation by the consumption and investments of other countries. The euro is basically Germany robbing blind the other members while pretending to be virtuous and blocking most of what could have improved the situation.
- marcosdumay 1y ago> and no mechanism to correct disparity between members AFAIK, they created some mechanisms after the 2008 crisis. Every country there now effectively prints money in differing rates, and the EU only regulates some limits.
- Jyaif 1y agoSome numbers: During winter, France uses ~50% more electricity per day than during summer. And during cloudy days in winter, solar produces 10%-15% what it produces during summer. If you don't have month-long battery storage, in order to be fully solar based France would need to produce 20 times more electricity than needed during summer.
- pfdietz 1y agoOr you use a different technology optimized for long term storage. Batteries are not that technology. Hydrogen (or other e-fuels) or long term thermal storage. For the latter, see standard-thermal.com
- triceratops 1y ago> Or you use a different technology optimized for long term storage. Batteries are not that technology I've heard this before but can you explain why? A cursory web search tells me batteries hold charge pretty well for 6 months. And the new sodium batteries from CATL are certainly cheap enough.
- nicoburns 1y agoThe problem with batteries for long-term storage is the capacity. You would need an ENORMOUS amount of them to store months worth of energy.
- pfdietz 1y agoFor long term storage, capex is king, not round trip efficiency. The capex of batteries ($ per kWh of storage) is much too high. There aren't enough charge/discharge cycles to amortize that capex. This is unlike with diurnal storage, where there are many thousands of cycles over which to spread that cost.
- triceratops 1y agoThank you that makes a lot of sense.
- Qwertious 1y agoJust solar without wind is a terrible idea. Which is why no one's doing it.
- pfdietz 1y agoIt's quite feasible in some places, like India.
- onlyrealcuzzo 1y agoIf you're in the Atacama Desert, I doubt it's 40%, but not really relevant. This is ALL renewables, not just Solar - the article states that Solar is ~20% now in the EU. Wind typically counts for ~15%, and Hydro (which may or may not be counted as renewable) counts as ~15%. So most places can pretty easily get to ~40% solar, ~15% wind, ~15% hydro = ~70% renewable. Throw in ~20% Nuclear (basically all of Europe before Germany sh*t the bed), and you're at ~90% - with limited need for storage - a large portion of which could come from infra that already exists for pumped hydro and regular overnight solar storage. We're quite a ways away from diminishing returns. We're ~8 years away from a global ~40% of electricity coming from solar EVEN IF it continues to grow at ~30% YoY.
- runarb 1y ago> Hydro (which may or may not be counted as renewable) counts as ~15%. Why or when wouldn't one consider hydropower a renewable energy source?
- thecompilr 1y agoLook at the Hoover dam
- citrin_ru 1y agoYou mean low water levels? Isn’t it caused by agriculture water use? A dam allows to use more water (for agriculture) but one can choose not to use more.
- port11 1y agoEx worked in an NGO that fights the expansion of hydro in Portugal. There are several reasons. It's destructive, has very high emissions, and doesn't actually generate that much power because we have long-ish drought seasons. Hydro was fueled or fueling corrupt construction deals while destroying natural reserves and wildlife. In some cases, night-time hydro was much more expensive than any other power source.
- black_puppydog 1y agoGiven the development of battery prices (and especially LFP and sodium ion) most new solar capacity will he solar+battery. With some software tweaks, these are not only base load compatible, but can even take on grid frequency stabilisation. Check out recent episodes of Tue Volts podcast. It's actually a bit crazy.
- buckle8017 1y agoThe better way to think about the grids energy mix is some matrix of reliability, predictability, and rotational mass. Solar and wind have no rotational mass, are unreliable and unpredictable
- crote 1y agoSolar and wind are extremely reliable, because they are distributed. Unlike large-scalec fossil or nuclear, a single plant going offline isn't a big deal. Solar and wind are quite predictable - it's just weather forecasting. We have a pretty good idea what it is going to produce 7 days from now - we just can't control it. Solar and wind can provide rotational mass. Existing installations just aren't engineered for it, because grid following makes more sense in a fossil-heavy grid. If extra inertia is needed, batteries are the perfect source for it, as it can instantly scale from -100 to +100 to soak up excess or fill in shortages. Or we can just install a bunch of flywheels, no big deal.
- Havoc 1y ago>I think I read that once you get to like 40%, you need to spend a lot more on storage. You can get pretty high before the economics get sketchy. Below analysis concluded that for many sunny places that point is in the 90%+. Most of EU will be lower than said sunny places, but point is it's not 40%. And the sprinkling of wind, nuclear, geo, hydro means there is a fair bit of room to still push. Plus both solar and storage tech is still moving rapidly https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Ember-24-Hour-Solar-Electricity-June-2025-6.pdf https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Ember-24-Hour-S...