8 ms·

Gold hits all time high

90 points by tru3_power 1y ago

TulliusCicero 1y ago
Is that nominal or inflation-adjusted?
- foxyv 1y ago
  Considering how our fiscal conservatives are trying to switch the money printer to turbo, I would say it's probably inflationary combined with a lack of confidence in the stock market.
  - jader201 1y ago
    > lack of confidence in the stock market. Considering most stocks have been equally increasing/at ATH, I’m not sure that’s the reason.
    - EgregiousCube 1y ago
      Exactly - when equities, commodities, prices of goods, crypto, .... are all up, this tells us that the real situation is that currency is down.
      - jeffrallen 1y ago
        Or that rich people need to pay more taxes. Cc: Gary's economics @ youtube
        r_lee 1y ago
        That is what he means... Inflation of all assets caused by bad fiscal policy and both deregulation and regulation causing most of the money to only move around in the upper echelons of society this really can't keep going on forever. the weekly "ATH" and everything going up is like a pressure bomb that keeps getting pressurized more and more each day. And because this is all assets, the more assets you already have, the more you gain. And the central banks/etc. will make sure the party keeps on going for you.
        foxyv 1y ago
        A rising sea, raises all boats. But if one boat shoots up like a rocket, then expect a tidal wave.
- thekoma 1y ago
  The number you are seeing is the (USD) price you would pay for one ounce of gold right now. (Not taking spread into account.)
- compumike 1y ago
  Inflation adjusted chart for the GLD ETF: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GLD https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GLD (Not quite the same due to the compounding 0.40%/year expense ratio of the ETF, but probably close enough for this conversation.)
nixass 1y ago
Other than for few years in mid 2010s gold seemed to be at ATH most of the time
- devmor 1y ago
  Yeah I do not see why this is worthy of interest. Gold is pretty much always appreciating.
  - vdupras 1y ago
    What is unusual is for gold to perform better than stock indexes, which it has been doing by a significant margin in the past year.
  - kragen 1y ago
    Gold has a pretty stable value over long periods of time; the famous quote is: > an ounce of gold in Roman times bought a nice suit, and today, an ounce of gold buys a nice suit. Consequently it's the standard safe store of value investors flee to when the world is in upheaval, a role it has played since well before Roman times. Its price being high is a standard indicator of investors fearing miserable times ahead. See, for example, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-haven.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-haven.asp or https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flighttoquality.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flighttoquality.asp. If it appears to you that "gold is pretty much always appreciating", that's a function of your perspective, similar to the phenomenon where, sometimes, when you're standing on railroad tracks, a faraway train looks bigger and bigger and bigger if you just stand there and watch. In this case what is happening is that the value of whatever you're using to measure the gold's value, probably dollars, is depreciating. Gold's value is pretty volatile in the short term, though, so in fact most of the time gold is not at an all-time high, even measured in dollars. If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment#/media/File:Price_of_gold.webp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment#/media/F..., for example, you'll see that gold didn't reach its high of 02011 again for about 9 years, and didn't reach its high of 01980 again for 27 years, until the subprime mortgage crisis in 02007. To me it looks like the recent periods that gold has reached a nominal all-time price are roughly 01968–01975, 01979–01980, 02008–02011, the first half of 02020 when nobody knew what was going to happen with covid, and since Trump got elected. 13 out of the last 60 or so years. The following plot on that page shows what I mean about inflation; adjusted for the BLS CPI, gold hadn't exceeded its 01980 peak until the last few months, not even in the subprime mortgage crisis. kmeisthax's shadowbanned graph of oil barrels per gold ounce is also pretty thought-provoking: stable within the 10–35 range from 01946 until 02023, with the stunning exception of 02020 ("The peak in 2020 was driven by COVID-19, which boosted gold prices as a safe haven while oil demand and prices plummeted due to global lockdowns.") https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-gold-to-oil-ratio-since-1946-copy/ https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-gold-t...
jasonsb 1y ago
*Greed hits all time high (greedprice.org)
- fullshark 1y ago
  I thought gold being high is a "fear" indicator
  - jasonsb 1y ago
    [flagged]
    - kimixa 1y ago
      It's an indicator that they think they'll be able to feed more of their greed with $1 of gold than $1 of something else. Nothing fundamental about gold that links it to greed, just it's value and return. So yes, it tells you something more than "Amount Of Greed". And that may well be "Fear of losses (or even just reduced gains) in the market"
      - jasonsb 1y ago
        I never claimed gold is the fundamental indicator of greed. It's just one of many greed indicators. And greed is at all time high. Including gold.
    - davidw 1y ago
      'Greed!' as the answer to all questions is kind of lazy though. I hear this in housing politics: prices are high because of 'greed!'. Seems weird that people in San Francisco are so much greedier than people in Houston. I would take greedy as sort of a constant and try and think about why greedy people are having more or less success in a given place and time.
- missedthecue 1y ago
  When gold goes down is it generosity?
alecco 1y ago
Most of that is some digital system saying you are owed gold without independent audit of actual bullion reserves. More worrying: many central banks are buying actual physical gold and absorbing the extra price for moving it and custody. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/28/bullion-bonanza-why-is-gold-hitting-record-highs https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/28/bullion-bon...
- tru3_power 1y ago
  That is insane. What happens when that house of cards comes falling down?
  - alecco 1y ago
    I would bet something like EO6102 + Corralito. All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace ("brought to you by Palantir (tm)" with digital ID). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito
1oooqooq 1y ago
question is if they're quant easing those gold papers to :)
snickerbockers 1y ago
What is it about gold, anyways? None of its useful properties were known until recently (and mostly overhyped and upsold tbh, at least as far as those stupid cables go). Are we really just instinctively attracted to shiny metals? Or do people like it as a status symbol? (not to act like im above it all, i still have my gold-plated pokemon jigglypuff trading card from burger king in 1999 and i often use golden paint on model kits).
- atarian 1y ago
  Scarcity
- floxy 1y ago
  >Are we really just instinctively attracted to shiny metals? Probably. https://www.desertusa.com/animals/packrats.html https://www.desertusa.com/animals/packrats.html
- amflare 1y ago
  The short version is that its in limited supply, it has luxury value (think jewelry or artisan crafting), and its doesn't corrode. So it's a supply and demand issue. There is basically always the same amount, kings want it, and it doesn't ever disappear. It s superior to currency because while (for example) the US dollar will always have value as long as you pay taxes with it, there is not a limited supply It is superior to bartering because while (for example) a chicken has value due to its utility as food, it naturally disappears (because you ate it or it died). Gold and other precious metals sort of sit in the middle ground as the "next best thing" to almost everything that humans want. So it remains a useful means of preserving and communicating value.
- paxys 1y ago
  What is it about Bitcoin over the thousands of other altcoins that have the exact same properties? A large enough group of people picked Bitcoin and said "this is the one". That's basically it. Same thing happened with gold at some point in human history and we just stuck to it.
  - 1y ago
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
m101 1y ago
The drivers of this in my view are: 1) flight from USD assets given views that one cannot depend on US assets as safe havens 2) central banks increasing gold holdings 3) purchases by Chinese investors as they have few places to invest their money 4) concern around debt levels deficits and democratic process ability to fix this 5) concerns around central bank independence, and hence inflation targeting, being undermined for political motivations I have personally bought a lot of gold after having been a long term US equities investor because of its risk-off and zero duration nature. In a world of stock bubbles, high valuations, and general economic uncertainty, leaning risk-off has been where I currently feel comfortable. In a world of inflation being in zero duration is a sensible place to be.
- xhrpost 1y ago
  >flight from USD assets given views that one cannot depend on US assets as safe havens I keep seeing this but then I also keep seeing the opposite: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-buying-us-stocks-record-093000606.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-buying-us-stocks-r...
  - thanhhaimai 1y ago
    I think you're conflating between 2 different things: the USD and US stocks from US companies. - The USD is definitely losing value. That also means stocks from US companies would be cheaper from a foreigner's point of view. - That means it represents good investment opportunity as long as the fundamentals of those companies are not affected too much (e.g. AI companies not directly affected by workers' raid, or pay tarrifs). Nothing is contradictory here.
    - xhrpost 1y ago
      I understand what you're saying but I don't think I'm conflating. OP specifically said "USD assets", which I took to mean things like stocks.
    - ajross 1y ago
      > - The USD is definitely losing value. That also means stocks from US companies would be cheaper from a foreigner's point of view. That's actually not quite right. You can only buy securities on US markets with US dollars. You'd have to buy dollars on the money market to make that trade. So to the extent that "cheaper dollars" are driving investment in dollar-valued securities, they're increasing the value of the dollar on the global market by the same amount. All markets seek toward efficiency. The situation you posit would be subject to a money-printing arbitrage loop if it actually existed.
paxys 1y ago
Gold, silver, stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, baseball cards, fine art, Rolexes - everything is trading at or near their all time highs. The value of the US dollar is simply going down.
- skybrian 1y ago
  The art market doesn't seem to be doing well at all: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45175628 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45175628
  - throw0101c 1y ago
    Rolexes hit their all-time high in 2022: * https://watchcharts.ca/watches/price_index https://watchcharts.ca/watches/price_index * https://watchcharts.ca/watches/brand_index/rolex https://watchcharts.ca/watches/brand_index/rolex * https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/used-watch-market-prices-enjoy-best-performance-in-more-than-three-years-as-cartier-omega-rolex-and https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/used-watch-market-prices-e... >> The value of the US dollar is simply going down. I wonder what could be causing nervousness in the USD regime…
- pizlonator 1y ago
  Bingo So then the question is - how long can this continue before something snaps
  - MountDoom 1y ago
    Pretty long, given that the US had a fully-fiat currency for 50+ years, and many European countries had it for longer than that. Per CPI, your dollar is worth 8x less than what it was worth in 1970. This, in itself, doesn't mean anything profound. There's nothing to "snap" if the expectation of stable, modest inflation is baked into the markets. Fiat currencies usually implode only when something else undermines the confidence in the issuing government.
    - pizlonator 1y ago
vladimirralev 1y ago
Good time to remind everybody that the Fed, the US central bank, prices gold at $42.22 for some reason and nobody questions it ever. And all those dignified educated respectable board members and econ PhDs give speeches about science-based market economy, maintaining credibility and staying away from politics while caring about the wellbeing of households and families.
- ajross 1y ago
  That's wildly misunderstanding things. The fed doesn't trade, regulate, hold or sell gold. That price you're quoting is for a historical artifact called a Gold Certificate. These things have a value set by law (not by the fed) of 42 and 2/9th dollars. They don't sell them anymore, but if you happen to have one they're required to buy it from you (IIRC) at that rate. As always, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_certificate_(United_States) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_certificate_(United_State...
  - vladimirralev 1y ago
    It's a little bit broader than this. In the Fed there is the so called "statutory price for gold" and it's not limited to gold certificates. Any gold in the Fed would be priced at $42 by law. The fact that they don't technically own any gold and work around the issue only makes it so much more amusing. It only serves to tell people they can fix prices and make outrageous course-correction changes overnight and people will still argue "it's fine and it's legal" afterwards. https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm
    - ajross 1y ago
      Again, that's all just conspiracy nonsense. Yes, there are old laws. No, they don't effect macroeconomic policy and to claim they do is silly. This is of a piece with the Trillion Dollar Coin nonsense[1] being hawked in equally silly circles on the other side of the aisle. Real world economic policy works by virtue of steady hands and rigorously applied norms, not goofball trickery around edge cases of ancient laws. [1] The idea that the Treasury's statutory authority to mint coinage could be exploited to mint a single illiquid-by-virtue-of-size asset that could then be borrowed against without increasing the debt ceiling.
gwbas1c 1y ago
If you want to understand what's going on, I strongly recommend reading Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. The book is highly researched and explains the pattern we're in, and what we'll see next. https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises/dp/1668009293?adgrpid=180038482722&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvadid=748008426882&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=16322852284799599963&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9051624&hvtargid=dsa-2414841787086&hydadcr=&mcid=&hvocijid=16322852284799599963--&hvexpln=67&hvsb=Money_d&hvcampaign=dsadesk https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...
- roxolotl 1y ago
  And if you don’t have time to read it Ray was on Odds Lots in the spring and laid out the gist. https://pca.st/episode/c2eae258-c051-4cd1-87f6-0410e2eb926c https://pca.st/episode/c2eae258-c051-4cd1-87f6-0410e2eb926c
- czbond 1y ago
  If you don't mind PDF, you can also get it free from the author here: https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises
  - sph 1y ago
    And here’s the PDF if you don’t want to give away your email: https://github.com/the-bookshelf/misc-economics/blob/master/Principles%20For%20Navigating%20Big%20Debt%20Crises%20By%20Ray%20Dalio.pdf https://github.com/the-bookshelf/misc-economics/blob/master/...
pknerd 1y ago
Question from experts: I have been itching to buy silver and hodl it for a year or two.. Maybe more..should I buy it? Will there be more consumption in coming years?
andreygrehov 1y ago
On average, global reserve currencies last about 100 years [0]. [0] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Global-reserve-currencies-since-1450_fig4_359134517 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Global-reserve-currencie...
debo_ 1y ago
Related: Lyn Alden has several good pieces on fiscal dominance. This is one: https://www.lynalden.com/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-dominance/ https://www.lynalden.com/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-...
gibspaulding 1y ago
For anyone else who read this headline and thought that seemed unremarkable since gold does tend to slowly increase in value year over year meaning it’s almost always at or near its all time high - it’s up 43% over the past year.
jmclnx 1y ago
Almost a world turned upside down. From what I remember, usually it is when the democrats are in power when this happens.
howmayiannoyyou 1y ago
Its not about the USD. It is about certain regimes nearing their end and folks converting assets into something fungible they can use and enjoy while exiled in Geneva, Dubai, Phnom Penh, etc. As just one example (of many) of why its not about the USD - most global debt is dollar denominated and settled in dollars. Even if they don't reside or transact in the US, most large financial transactions settle (or are hedged) in USD. Again, just one example. Also, understand export economies like China cannot avoid dollar settlement for goods exported to the US. They can settle in USD and covert to another asset, but only as a secondary step. I could go on about this, but Carnegie Endowment Prof Michael Pettis explains this and more much better than I can.
johnohara 1y ago
The price of gold fluctuated significantly in 1979 due to concerns over whether inflation could be brought under control. It started the year at ~$250.00 per ounce and ended the year at ~$850.00 per ounce. It was a presidential election year and consumers were getting squeezed hard by rising energy prices. Russia invaded Afghanistan, Carter suspended participation in the Olympics, and there was a general feeling of concern. Using Wolfram Alpha to compute gold's price in 1979 relative to 2025, "850.00 1979 dollars in 2025", the result is $3,663.84 Gold closed today at $3,858.60. Just like 1979, 2025 has a long list of international concerns making investors nervous.
- paulpauper 1y ago
  Yes, adjusted for inflation, gold has done much worse than the media hype would suggest.
  - defrost 1y ago
    Regardless, it's been a good winter trawling for nuggets on the W.Australian goldfields, not for much longer now the sun is starting to bite.
  - eadmund 1y ago
    Of course, adjusted for inflation the dollar has done much, much worse than gold! Not that one should put all of one’s portfolio into gold. That would be pretty insane. But a certain fixed allocation within a balanced portfolio? I think that makes sense.
    - mettamage 1y ago
      Fun take. True as well. Fiat money is very weak against inflation.
theturtle 1y ago
I like making young bros' heads spin by explaining how little intrinsic value gold actually has. They all start out with "if the shit comes down, gold will --" and I cut them off by saying "-- still have almost zero intrinsic value." Can't eat it. Can't burn it. Can't really make shelter or a weapon out of it. Useful for tiny microcircuits, but that's not something the preppers will be doing in Montanam "Well, it'll always be valuable, because people think --" Aha, dudebro, now you're in the realm of "perceieved value." Whole different game in the end times...
burnt-resistor 1y ago
Explained by weakening USD and the potential for a US/global recession is a Sword of Damocles being plucked at and played with by a mostly unwise and unhelpful regulatory environment.

90 points by tru3_power 1y ago

TulliusCicero 1y ago

Is that nominal or inflation-adjusted?

foxyv 1y ago
Considering how our fiscal conservatives are trying to switch the money printer to turbo, I would say it's probably inflationary combined with a lack of confidence in the stock market.
- jader201 1y ago
  > lack of confidence in the stock market. Considering most stocks have been equally increasing/at ATH, I’m not sure that’s the reason.
  - EgregiousCube 1y ago
    Exactly - when equities, commodities, prices of goods, crypto, .... are all up, this tells us that the real situation is that currency is down.
    - jeffrallen 1y ago
      Or that rich people need to pay more taxes. Cc: Gary's economics @ youtube
      - r_lee 1y ago
        That is what he means... Inflation of all assets caused by bad fiscal policy and both deregulation and regulation causing most of the money to only move around in the upper echelons of society this really can't keep going on forever. the weekly "ATH" and everything going up is like a pressure bomb that keeps getting pressurized more and more each day. And because this is all assets, the more assets you already have, the more you gain. And the central banks/etc. will make sure the party keeps on going for you.
        foxyv 1y ago
        A rising sea, raises all boats. But if one boat shoots up like a rocket, then expect a tidal wave.
thekoma 1y ago
The number you are seeing is the (USD) price you would pay for one ounce of gold right now. (Not taking spread into account.)
compumike 1y ago
Inflation adjusted chart for the GLD ETF: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GLD https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GLD (Not quite the same due to the compounding 0.40%/year expense ratio of the ETF, but probably close enough for this conversation.)

nixass 1y ago

Other than for few years in mid 2010s gold seemed to be at ATH most of the time

devmor 1y ago
Yeah I do not see why this is worthy of interest. Gold is pretty much always appreciating.
- vdupras 1y ago
  What is unusual is for gold to perform better than stock indexes, which it has been doing by a significant margin in the past year.
- kragen 1y ago
  Gold has a pretty stable value over long periods of time; the famous quote is: > an ounce of gold in Roman times bought a nice suit, and today, an ounce of gold buys a nice suit. Consequently it's the standard safe store of value investors flee to when the world is in upheaval, a role it has played since well before Roman times. Its price being high is a standard indicator of investors fearing miserable times ahead. See, for example, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-haven.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-haven.asp or https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flighttoquality.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flighttoquality.asp. If it appears to you that "gold is pretty much always appreciating", that's a function of your perspective, similar to the phenomenon where, sometimes, when you're standing on railroad tracks, a faraway train looks bigger and bigger and bigger if you just stand there and watch. In this case what is happening is that the value of whatever you're using to measure the gold's value, probably dollars, is depreciating. Gold's value is pretty volatile in the short term, though, so in fact most of the time gold is not at an all-time high, even measured in dollars. If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment#/media/File:Price_of_gold.webp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment#/media/F..., for example, you'll see that gold didn't reach its high of 02011 again for about 9 years, and didn't reach its high of 01980 again for 27 years, until the subprime mortgage crisis in 02007. To me it looks like the recent periods that gold has reached a nominal all-time price are roughly 01968–01975, 01979–01980, 02008–02011, the first half of 02020 when nobody knew what was going to happen with covid, and since Trump got elected. 13 out of the last 60 or so years. The following plot on that page shows what I mean about inflation; adjusted for the BLS CPI, gold hadn't exceeded its 01980 peak until the last few months, not even in the subprime mortgage crisis. kmeisthax's shadowbanned graph of oil barrels per gold ounce is also pretty thought-provoking: stable within the 10–35 range from 01946 until 02023, with the stunning exception of 02020 ("The peak in 2020 was driven by COVID-19, which boosted gold prices as a safe haven while oil demand and prices plummeted due to global lockdowns.") https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-gold-to-oil-ratio-since-1946-copy/ https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-gold-t...

jasonsb 1y ago

*Greed hits all time high (greedprice.org)

fullshark 1y ago
I thought gold being high is a "fear" indicator
- jasonsb 1y ago
  [flagged]
  - kimixa 1y ago
    It's an indicator that they think they'll be able to feed more of their greed with $1 of gold than $1 of something else. Nothing fundamental about gold that links it to greed, just it's value and return. So yes, it tells you something more than "Amount Of Greed". And that may well be "Fear of losses (or even just reduced gains) in the market"
    - jasonsb 1y ago
      I never claimed gold is the fundamental indicator of greed. It's just one of many greed indicators. And greed is at all time high. Including gold.
  - davidw 1y ago
    'Greed!' as the answer to all questions is kind of lazy though. I hear this in housing politics: prices are high because of 'greed!'. Seems weird that people in San Francisco are so much greedier than people in Houston. I would take greedy as sort of a constant and try and think about why greedy people are having more or less success in a given place and time.
missedthecue 1y ago
When gold goes down is it generosity?

alecco 1y ago

Most of that is some digital system saying you are owed gold without independent audit of actual bullion reserves. More worrying: many central banks are buying actual physical gold and absorbing the extra price for moving it and custody. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/28/bullion-bonanza-why-is-gold-hitting-record-highs https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/28/bullion-bon...

tru3_power 1y ago
That is insane. What happens when that house of cards comes falling down?
- alecco 1y ago
  I would bet something like EO6102 + Corralito. All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace ("brought to you by Palantir (tm)" with digital ID). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito

1oooqooq 1y ago

question is if they're quant easing those gold papers to :)

snickerbockers 1y ago

What is it about gold, anyways? None of its useful properties were known until recently (and mostly overhyped and upsold tbh, at least as far as those stupid cables go). Are we really just instinctively attracted to shiny metals? Or do people like it as a status symbol? (not to act like im above it all, i still have my gold-plated pokemon jigglypuff trading card from burger king in 1999 and i often use golden paint on model kits).

atarian 1y ago
Scarcity
floxy 1y ago
>Are we really just instinctively attracted to shiny metals? Probably. https://www.desertusa.com/animals/packrats.html https://www.desertusa.com/animals/packrats.html
amflare 1y ago
The short version is that its in limited supply, it has luxury value (think jewelry or artisan crafting), and its doesn't corrode. So it's a supply and demand issue. There is basically always the same amount, kings want it, and it doesn't ever disappear. It s superior to currency because while (for example) the US dollar will always have value as long as you pay taxes with it, there is not a limited supply It is superior to bartering because while (for example) a chicken has value due to its utility as food, it naturally disappears (because you ate it or it died). Gold and other precious metals sort of sit in the middle ground as the "next best thing" to almost everything that humans want. So it remains a useful means of preserving and communicating value.
paxys 1y ago
What is it about Bitcoin over the thousands of other altcoins that have the exact same properties? A large enough group of people picked Bitcoin and said "this is the one". That's basically it. Same thing happened with gold at some point in human history and we just stuck to it.
- 1y ago

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

m101 1y ago

The drivers of this in my view are: 1) flight from USD assets given views that one cannot depend on US assets as safe havens 2) central banks increasing gold holdings 3) purchases by Chinese investors as they have few places to invest their money 4) concern around debt levels deficits and democratic process ability to fix this 5) concerns around central bank independence, and hence inflation targeting, being undermined for political motivations I have personally bought a lot of gold after having been a long term US equities investor because of its risk-off and zero duration nature. In a world of stock bubbles, high valuations, and general economic uncertainty, leaning risk-off has been where I currently feel comfortable. In a world of inflation being in zero duration is a sensible place to be.

xhrpost 1y ago
>flight from USD assets given views that one cannot depend on US assets as safe havens I keep seeing this but then I also keep seeing the opposite: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-buying-us-stocks-record-093000606.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-buying-us-stocks-r...
- thanhhaimai 1y ago
  I think you're conflating between 2 different things: the USD and US stocks from US companies. - The USD is definitely losing value. That also means stocks from US companies would be cheaper from a foreigner's point of view. - That means it represents good investment opportunity as long as the fundamentals of those companies are not affected too much (e.g. AI companies not directly affected by workers' raid, or pay tarrifs). Nothing is contradictory here.
  - xhrpost 1y ago
    I understand what you're saying but I don't think I'm conflating. OP specifically said "USD assets", which I took to mean things like stocks.
  - ajross 1y ago
    > - The USD is definitely losing value. That also means stocks from US companies would be cheaper from a foreigner's point of view. That's actually not quite right. You can only buy securities on US markets with US dollars. You'd have to buy dollars on the money market to make that trade. So to the extent that "cheaper dollars" are driving investment in dollar-valued securities, they're increasing the value of the dollar on the global market by the same amount. All markets seek toward efficiency. The situation you posit would be subject to a money-printing arbitrage loop if it actually existed.

paxys 1y ago

Gold, silver, stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, baseball cards, fine art, Rolexes - everything is trading at or near their all time highs. The value of the US dollar is simply going down.

skybrian 1y ago
The art market doesn't seem to be doing well at all: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45175628 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45175628
- throw0101c 1y ago
  Rolexes hit their all-time high in 2022: * https://watchcharts.ca/watches/price_index https://watchcharts.ca/watches/price_index * https://watchcharts.ca/watches/brand_index/rolex https://watchcharts.ca/watches/brand_index/rolex * https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/used-watch-market-prices-enjoy-best-performance-in-more-than-three-years-as-cartier-omega-rolex-and https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/used-watch-market-prices-e... >> The value of the US dollar is simply going down. I wonder what could be causing nervousness in the USD regime…
pizlonator 1y ago
Bingo So then the question is - how long can this continue before something snaps
- MountDoom 1y ago
  Pretty long, given that the US had a fully-fiat currency for 50+ years, and many European countries had it for longer than that. Per CPI, your dollar is worth 8x less than what it was worth in 1970. This, in itself, doesn't mean anything profound. There's nothing to "snap" if the expectation of stable, modest inflation is baked into the markets. Fiat currencies usually implode only when something else undermines the confidence in the issuing government.
  - pizlonator 1y ago

vladimirralev 1y ago

Good time to remind everybody that the Fed, the US central bank, prices gold at $42.22 for some reason and nobody questions it ever. And all those dignified educated respectable board members and econ PhDs give speeches about science-based market economy, maintaining credibility and staying away from politics while caring about the wellbeing of households and families.

ajross 1y ago
That's wildly misunderstanding things. The fed doesn't trade, regulate, hold or sell gold. That price you're quoting is for a historical artifact called a Gold Certificate. These things have a value set by law (not by the fed) of 42 and 2/9th dollars. They don't sell them anymore, but if you happen to have one they're required to buy it from you (IIRC) at that rate. As always, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_certificate_(United_States) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_certificate_(United_State...
- vladimirralev 1y ago
  It's a little bit broader than this. In the Fed there is the so called "statutory price for gold" and it's not limited to gold certificates. Any gold in the Fed would be priced at $42 by law. The fact that they don't technically own any gold and work around the issue only makes it so much more amusing. It only serves to tell people they can fix prices and make outrageous course-correction changes overnight and people will still argue "it's fine and it's legal" afterwards. https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm
  - ajross 1y ago
    Again, that's all just conspiracy nonsense. Yes, there are old laws. No, they don't effect macroeconomic policy and to claim they do is silly. This is of a piece with the Trillion Dollar Coin nonsense[1] being hawked in equally silly circles on the other side of the aisle. Real world economic policy works by virtue of steady hands and rigorously applied norms, not goofball trickery around edge cases of ancient laws. [1] The idea that the Treasury's statutory authority to mint coinage could be exploited to mint a single illiquid-by-virtue-of-size asset that could then be borrowed against without increasing the debt ceiling.

gwbas1c 1y ago

If you want to understand what's going on, I strongly recommend reading Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. The book is highly researched and explains the pattern we're in, and what we'll see next. https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises/dp/1668009293?adgrpid=180038482722&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvadid=748008426882&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=16322852284799599963&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9051624&hvtargid=dsa-2414841787086&hydadcr=&mcid=&hvocijid=16322852284799599963--&hvexpln=67&hvsb=Money_d&hvcampaign=dsadesk https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...

roxolotl 1y ago
And if you don’t have time to read it Ray was on Odds Lots in the spring and laid out the gist. https://pca.st/episode/c2eae258-c051-4cd1-87f6-0410e2eb926c https://pca.st/episode/c2eae258-c051-4cd1-87f6-0410e2eb926c
czbond 1y ago
If you don't mind PDF, you can also get it free from the author here: https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises
- sph 1y ago
  And here’s the PDF if you don’t want to give away your email: https://github.com/the-bookshelf/misc-economics/blob/master/Principles%20For%20Navigating%20Big%20Debt%20Crises%20By%20Ray%20Dalio.pdf https://github.com/the-bookshelf/misc-economics/blob/master/...

pknerd 1y ago

Question from experts: I have been itching to buy silver and hodl it for a year or two.. Maybe more..should I buy it? Will there be more consumption in coming years?

andreygrehov 1y ago

On average, global reserve currencies last about 100 years [0]. [0] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Global-reserve-currencies-since-1450_fig4_359134517 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Global-reserve-currencie...

debo_ 1y ago

Related: Lyn Alden has several good pieces on fiscal dominance. This is one: https://www.lynalden.com/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-dominance/ https://www.lynalden.com/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-...

gibspaulding 1y ago

For anyone else who read this headline and thought that seemed unremarkable since gold does tend to slowly increase in value year over year meaning it’s almost always at or near its all time high - it’s up 43% over the past year.

jmclnx 1y ago

Almost a world turned upside down. From what I remember, usually it is when the democrats are in power when this happens.

howmayiannoyyou 1y ago

Its not about the USD. It is about certain regimes nearing their end and folks converting assets into something fungible they can use and enjoy while exiled in Geneva, Dubai, Phnom Penh, etc. As just one example (of many) of why its not about the USD - most global debt is dollar denominated and settled in dollars. Even if they don't reside or transact in the US, most large financial transactions settle (or are hedged) in USD. Again, just one example. Also, understand export economies like China cannot avoid dollar settlement for goods exported to the US. They can settle in USD and covert to another asset, but only as a secondary step. I could go on about this, but Carnegie Endowment Prof Michael Pettis explains this and more much better than I can.

johnohara 1y ago

The price of gold fluctuated significantly in 1979 due to concerns over whether inflation could be brought under control. It started the year at ~$250.00 per ounce and ended the year at ~$850.00 per ounce. It was a presidential election year and consumers were getting squeezed hard by rising energy prices. Russia invaded Afghanistan, Carter suspended participation in the Olympics, and there was a general feeling of concern. Using Wolfram Alpha to compute gold's price in 1979 relative to 2025, "850.00 1979 dollars in 2025", the result is $3,663.84 Gold closed today at $3,858.60. Just like 1979, 2025 has a long list of international concerns making investors nervous.

paulpauper 1y ago
Yes, adjusted for inflation, gold has done much worse than the media hype would suggest.
- defrost 1y ago
  Regardless, it's been a good winter trawling for nuggets on the W.Australian goldfields, not for much longer now the sun is starting to bite.
- eadmund 1y ago
  Of course, adjusted for inflation the dollar has done much, much worse than gold! Not that one should put all of one’s portfolio into gold. That would be pretty insane. But a certain fixed allocation within a balanced portfolio? I think that makes sense.
  - mettamage 1y ago
    Fun take. True as well. Fiat money is very weak against inflation.

theturtle 1y ago

I like making young bros' heads spin by explaining how little intrinsic value gold actually has. They all start out with "if the shit comes down, gold will --" and I cut them off by saying "-- still have almost zero intrinsic value." Can't eat it. Can't burn it. Can't really make shelter or a weapon out of it. Useful for tiny microcircuits, but that's not something the preppers will be doing in Montanam "Well, it'll always be valuable, because people think --" Aha, dudebro, now you're in the realm of "perceieved value." Whole different game in the end times...

burnt-resistor 1y ago

Explained by weakening USD and the potential for a US/global recession is a Sword of Damocles being plucked at and played with by a mostly unwise and unhelpful regulatory environment.