4 ms·

> The market appears to be stuck in the trees, and is oblivious to the forest. In this case, the "forest" was bluntly and worryingly mapped out for us by Powell

> The market appears to be stuck in the trees, and is oblivious to the forest. In this case, the "forest" was bluntly and worryingly mapped out for us by Powell I agree that this market is irrational but everyone knows the popular saying about that. In the meantime, you can probably make some returns by assuming the money printer will keep stocks propped up for a bit longer. This isn't financial advice. This year has shown that the dollar losing value = higher stock prices. Calls it is.

refulgentis 1y ago
If it makes you feel any better or worse, I was 100% sure of this in 2019. 100%. COVID I thought for sure was going to be the death blow.
- hypeatei 1y ago
  I've done quite well this year in the market mainly due to the April dip. Options trading hasn't been too bad either but that's more luck than anything.
coliveira 1y ago
It is natural that stocks go up, since the value of the dollar is going down and there is no clear recession. Not only stocks, but precious metals are also making new highs because USD is losing its purchasing power.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > natural that stocks go up, since the value of the dollar is going down Equities are up more than inflation for almost any investing consumer.
  - deadfoxygrandpa 1y ago
    yeah, because equities aren't generally included in "inflation". the guy you're responding to is trying to say that they should be
eagerpace 1y ago
This was a mind shift for me, inflation applies to stock prices too. The US cannot cut spending enough to prevent the debt death spiral. Inflation and growth are the only options. Everyone wants growth but it's hard to get, nobody wants inflation, but it's easy to get. Inflation is here to stay.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > US cannot cut spending enough to prevent the debt death spiral. Inflation and growth are the only options Inflation, growth and defaults. Trump has already de facto seized, and the Republicans in the Congress ceded, the power of the purse. Do you really think impounding interest payments is beyond the pale of possibility?
  - eagerpace 1y ago
    It's not a partisan thing. Congress is too dysfunctional. Both sides oppose a balanced budget.
    - bediger4000 1y ago
      I'm the past, Congress was able to prevent impoundments. Given the cult like nature of the current majority, the current situation is not "both sides".
    - rootusrootus 1y ago
      > Both sides oppose a balanced budget. A balanced budget is a popular idea in theory, but very few people actually want to see it happen once they find out what their own cost will be. The politicians are going to do whatever it takes to mollify voters and keep their jobs.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
    - watwut 1y ago
the_real_cher 1y ago
Combined with Health Care being 60+% of all new job creation. It's a wild time.

refulgentis 1y ago

If it makes you feel any better or worse, I was 100% sure of this in 2019. 100%. COVID I thought for sure was going to be the death blow.

hypeatei 1y ago
I've done quite well this year in the market mainly due to the April dip. Options trading hasn't been too bad either but that's more luck than anything.

coliveira 1y ago

It is natural that stocks go up, since the value of the dollar is going down and there is no clear recession. Not only stocks, but precious metals are also making new highs because USD is losing its purchasing power.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> natural that stocks go up, since the value of the dollar is going down Equities are up more than inflation for almost any investing consumer.
- deadfoxygrandpa 1y ago
  yeah, because equities aren't generally included in "inflation". the guy you're responding to is trying to say that they should be

eagerpace 1y ago

This was a mind shift for me, inflation applies to stock prices too. The US cannot cut spending enough to prevent the debt death spiral. Inflation and growth are the only options. Everyone wants growth but it's hard to get, nobody wants inflation, but it's easy to get. Inflation is here to stay.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> US cannot cut spending enough to prevent the debt death spiral. Inflation and growth are the only options Inflation, growth and defaults. Trump has already de facto seized, and the Republicans in the Congress ceded, the power of the purse. Do you really think impounding interest payments is beyond the pale of possibility?
- eagerpace 1y ago
  It's not a partisan thing. Congress is too dysfunctional. Both sides oppose a balanced budget.
  - bediger4000 1y ago
    I'm the past, Congress was able to prevent impoundments. Given the cult like nature of the current majority, the current situation is not "both sides".
  - rootusrootus 1y ago
    > Both sides oppose a balanced budget. A balanced budget is a popular idea in theory, but very few people actually want to see it happen once they find out what their own cost will be. The politicians are going to do whatever it takes to mollify voters and keep their jobs.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
  - watwut 1y ago

the_real_cher 1y ago

Combined with Health Care being 60+% of all new job creation. It's a wild time.