7 ms·
Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century
- tcumulus 1y agoNon-technical articles on this study (in Dutch): - https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2025/08/26/golfstroom-zou-halfweg-deze-eeuw-al-kunnen-stilvallen-kantelpunt/ https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2025/08/26/golfstroom-zou-halfw... - https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/collectie/13871/artikel/2579953-gevreesd-kantelpunt-in-de-golfstroom-mogelijk-al-halverwege-deze-eeuw-bereikt https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/collectie/13871/artikel/2579953-gev...
- deadbabe 1y agoOnce it tips, how screwed will Europe be?
- V__ 1y agoRome is further north than New York City. Very screwed.
- marcyb5st 1y agoI believe southern European countries won't be as screwed. The Mediterranean sea has enough thermal mass to keep things Ok. North of the Alps screwed big time. However, the lack of rainfall could be the real killer. As the warm humid air would stops coming it's not clear if the precipitations would be enough to sustain crops in Mediterranean countries. Also, the US east cost and the Caribbean countries would be fucked as well. All that energy would stay there supercharging hurricanes as they cross the gulf of Mexico. That area of the world would basically be subject to both the precipitations and thermal energy that is now keeping northern Europe livable as it wouldn't spread over.
- barbazoo 1y agoI recommend "The Light Pirate" by Lily Brooks-Dalton that deals with this sort of future.
- marcyb5st 1y agoThank you. Added to my to-read list :)
- LargoLasskhyfv 1y agoYawn. Why not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Weather_(Sterling_novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Weather_(Sterling_novel) ?
- deadbabe 1y agoAren’t most crops watered via irrigation? Why is precipitation necessary
- stetrain 1y agoThe water used for irrigation is usually replenished by precipitation.
- hvb2 1y agoBecause irrigation needs fresh water. Fresh water is brought inland by precipitation. No precipitation no rivers to irrigate from after the glaciers that might also feed them run out
- LargoLasskhyfv 1y agoNukkular powered desalination plants at the coasts, pumping it inward via pipelines could be a solution.
- chneu 1y agoThe Mediterranean is currently experiencing water temps so high it's killing off everything. It's so hot that it's not enjoyable to swim in.
- raptor99 1y agoThis seems quite appropriate in relation to these predictions: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20161026-how-liars-create-the-illusion-of-truth https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20161026-how-liars-create...
- devin 1y agoIt's not difficult to imagine an article titled "How liars create the 'illusion of falsity'" which involves people repeatedly posting this article in response to truths they find inconvenient or otherwise disagreeable.
- blackbear_ 1y agoClassic logical fallacy: A=>B does not mean B=>A
- Mistletoe 1y agoIf you are wondering what happens then: >The Gulf Stream acts like a giant conveyor belt, transporting warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, which gives Western Europe its unusually mild climate. A collapse would disrupt this heat transfer, causing average temperatures in regions like the UK and Scandinavia to drop by as much as 10-15°C (18-27°F) in a short period. This would lead to much colder, harsher winters and potentially widespread crop failure due to freezing conditions and a shorter growing season. Ironically, while the rest of the world continues to warm, Europe would experience a rapid cooling.
- octaane 1y agoI cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic ocean) and slowly moves it up the east US/Canadian coast, when it then gently arches past the tip of Greenland and Iceland before splitting and arriving in northern Europe. To get an idea of how big of a problem the gulf stream going away would be, look at the comparative latitude of the UK and the Nordic countries compared to north America. The UK is aligned with Newfoundland in Canada, where it gets more than a little chilly. The UK is currently nice and toasty because of the gulf stream. It would be an extremely uncomfortable place without it - no more agriculture as the UK knows it now, no more nice weather. Fishing grounds destroyed, etc. The general public doesn't seem to really understand the massive impact of a potential gulf stream shutdown.
- rozap 1y agoAnd presumably there's another side of it too? Like all that hot air would have to be somewhere else if not Western Europe. That somewhere else would also have a bad time, just in the opposite direction. Very bleak.
- raffraffraff 1y agoYep. It's like the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer... Except with heat.
- barbazoo 1y agoCrazy in my mind to think about the system moving unimaginable amounts of energy around the planet and now we're changing it on a time scale shorter than what the planet usually sees. Reminds me of what I read about the Younger Dryas and how temperatures changed within centuries, if not decades.
- api 1y ago
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- WinstonSmith84 1y agoOkay that's maybe dramatic, but on another hand, that would be quite fascinating to experience. Maybe, for those of us living long enough, we are going to witness a net migration not from Africa to Europe, but from Europe to elsewhere, anywhere. There is enough place on Earth for humans to resettle and it's likely that other places will become more hospitable, while other places will become less, as the climate shifts. Maybe the middle east will become just warm and hot, instead of extremely hot as it's currently - and maybe even, they will be done with tribal wars, who knows!
- barbazoo 1y ago> There is enough place on Earth for humans to resettle It's romantic to imagine populations slowly moving to where life is better, haven't we always done that since out of Africa. I doubt it'll be like that when land becomes uninhabitable within decades due to changes to the experienced temperature range, rainfall, drought, fires, etc. We can't even figure out how to make space for a couple million Palestinian people. The Russians are still expanding their empire to restore their glory days. We need to figure out the whole living next to each other thing before we can resettle large populations.
- kergonath 1y ago> Maybe the middle east will become just warm and hot, instead of extremely hot as it's currently I don’t want to break your fantasies, but models predict the Middle East to be come more hot and hostile, not less.
- AlecSchueler 1y agoEurope is currently so hostile to receiving the people who need to move there that they might be surprised how much hostility they're met with if/when the tables turn.
- LargoLasskhyfv 1y agoEurope has the technology and experience to solve geo-social problems by turning itself into a cozy castle with high walls. The hostiles will be used as feedstock for alcalic hydrolysis at industrial scale/faster than replacement/birthing rate until the zones have been fully sanitized. Problems turned into fertilizer for nukkular powered greenhouses.
- Ekaros 1y agoSo how much coal do we need to burn to compensate in geo engineering?
- bix6 1y agoAnd this will of course affect ENSO giving us more El Niño action. So flooding here in California and more winter rain so all the skiers will have to water ski down the mountain. And the water gets warmer so if you thought the urchins were a problem now well just wait!
- timr 1y agoTitle is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal Circulation Collapse Due to Climate Change”
- didibus 1y agoAgree, that said, it's still a little worrisome. These simulations are the best we have to predict the future, and even if it's 2076, once it happens, it's going to be a huge deal. Hard to think we should just YOLO and take a gamble models were wrong and all will be fine for centuries more.
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- baq 1y agoUnfortunately the ‘rational’ choice in a competitive game (like today’s world politics) is to double down on exploitation to maximize resources and/or/thus chances of surviving the event instead of minimizing probability of it happening.
- andrewmutz 1y agoGreat deal of uncertainty? But no one clicks on a link like that.
- baq 1y agoeveryone who has young children can expect either them (high probability) or grandchildren (basically certain) to live through that event. not sure if reaching the equilibrium is required to be seriously affected.
- chneu 1y agoIt's also worth noting that while this is uncertain, it's likely an undercount. Our models are based on what we can measure. We're continually finding that we are under measuring. Chances are that children born today will feel the effects of AMOC collapsing. So this mentality of "omg they're over reacting, we have time" is really dumb. It's very easy to nitpick and dismiss this kind of stuff instead of giving a shit because giving a shit means we have to accept we screwed up. Can we finally start giving a shit and be cautious?
- justlikereddit 1y agoFalse vacuum collapse could also happen. But given the quite impressive track record of 100% failed predictions in the climate doom department I'm betting on the false vacuum imploding before the climate memes manifest.
- tdb7893 1y agoWe've already seen sea level rises make some islands unliveable, pretty large ecological damage, and many people dead from natural disasters from climate change and we are still in early stages of it (levels of greenhouse gases in the environment are still still not only rising but also accelerating in the wrong direction). You would need to be incredibly selective to the point of absurdity to say predictions have 100% failed.
- baq 1y agoYeah dude hasn’t had an issue where he lives so he claims it’s all lies. When time comes for his neighborhood he’ll cry wolf for not being warned early enough.
- justlikereddit 1y agoIn your fantasy world both poles are ice free, snow is non existent in Britain and the Gulf Stream already stopped working 5 times, all of that before 2020. That's the official and much hyped past predictions, but this time it's different? Who's really the one crying wolf here? Maybe you boomer-brained types would get scammed a little bit less often if you tried thinking just a little bit for yourself instead of uncritically swallowing the pre-chewed fecal mass that media spits into your mouth on a daily basis.
- baq 1y agogo read an IPCC report instead of insulting people here.
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