6 ms·

It's fascinating seeing all the comments elsewhere anytime Waymo starts testing in another city along the lines of, "ah, but how will they handle X, Y, and Z he

It's fascinating seeing all the comments elsewhere anytime Waymo starts testing in another city along the lines of, "ah, but how will they handle X, Y, and Z here?? Checkmate, robots!" despite having already launched service in several other cities. Granted, NYC is the biggest city in the US, so maybe that sort of reaction is more reasonable there than when people in Dallas or Boston do it.

nine_k 1y ago
NYC is also one of the most regularly built out cities, in stark contrast to Boston, for instance. OTOH roads here may be 3 or even 4 levels high at the same point (e.g. where Manhattan bridge meets Brooklyn), and GPS is sometimes way off in canyons between skyscrapers.
- xnx 1y ago
  > OTOH roads here may be 3 or even 4 levels high at the same point And here I thought Chicago was complex with lower lower Wacker (just 3 levels). > GPS is sometimes way off in canyons between skyscrapers This is probably very challenging for human drivers using navigation, but probably no nearly as much of a problem for a Waymo car with onboard 3D maps of the entire operating area.
- cma 1y ago
  HD mapping gives much better than GPS I would imagine.
hardwaregeek 1y ago
Yeah I’m skeptical that robots will ever be perfect drivers but the bar isn’t perfect it’s better than human and that’s certainly possible.
- TulliusCicero 1y ago
  Yup, the data so far seems to indicate that Waymo is substantially safe than average drivers. Obviously it's not inclusive yet since the tech is still new (and while the study I'm thinking of was done by a third party, it's still Waymo that handed over the data and paid them to analyze it).
SirMaster 1y ago
>despite having already launched service in several other cities. Why does having launched in other cities matter if the new city brings up things that none of the other launched cities do? For example the first thing I can think of new for New York is snow and ice. It's my understanding that self-driving cars don't really account their acceleration and braking for roads that could sometimes be very slippery due to snow and ice.
- potatolicious 1y ago
  > "Why does having launched in other cities matter if the new city brings up things that none of the other launched cities do?" New requirements come up all the time in technology. The existence of a new requirement isn't in and of itself justification for skepticism - is there a particular reason to believe that Waymo is not capable of solving for the new requirement? The answer may be yes, but simply "ahah! It would need to do [new thing]!" is insufficient. "[new thing] is likely intractable because [reason]" would be more justification for skepticism. > "It's my understanding that self-driving cars don't really account their acceleration and braking for roads that could sometimes be very slippery due to snow and ice." Sure, but like above - is there a reason this is an intractable problem? I'll throw this out there: your human-driven car already accounts for acceleration and braking on slippery roads, without the need for the human. Traction control systems and electronic stability control systems exist! They're in fact incredibly common on modern cars.
  - SirMaster 1y ago
    >I'll throw this out there: your human-driven car already accounts for acceleration and braking on slippery roads, without the need for the human. Traction control systems and electronic stability control systems exist! They're in fact incredibly common on modern cars. These systems don't help with the problems I am talking about. You have to drive completely differently in heavy snow, significantly slower, brake sooner, turn less sharp, accelerate much slower, leave significantly larger gaps, leave space to move out of the way and be ready to move if someone behind you is coming at you too fast and can't stop in time, etc. I've spend my entire life in the midwest. The traction control system in my 2023 camry didn't help one bit when I applied the brakes on black ice and the car didn't react at all, it just kept sliding at the same speed across the ice.
John23832 1y ago
Roads in Texas specifically just seem to do whatever they want, whenever they want. It's really apparent that Texas local roads used to be wagon trails. The grid system in NYC seems like a good alternative for a rollout. Though the current NYC human drivers will hate these things. I also expect LOTS of vandalism.
testfrequency 1y ago
Since Waymo is very reliable in LA and SF, you will be just fine in NYC. Your grid system is far less of a challenge than the amount of hills, twists, narrow streets and low visibility back streets in California. I genuinely think the most complicated challenge for Waymo in NYC will be…winter snow and ice.
- infecto 1y ago
  I would argue those two areas are very different though. The Bay Area is not as dense or as many aggressive drivers as NYC.
  - testfrequency 1y ago
    My point wasn’t to say they are the same, more that SF and LA (I would guess) have covered and defeated almost every single challenge and obstacle for an urban environment (sans..weather). LA also has far denser areas than SF, places like DTLA and Koreatown are more dense than most boroughs in NYC (sans Manhattan).
    - infecto 1y ago
      My point was that it will be interesting to see how well it works in NYC where the only way to drive is aggressively in city streets breaking the rules. LA has its share of aggressive driving but as someone who has driven in both, NYC felt like I had to break the rules to go anywhere, LA not so much. Hard to really compare a tiny piece of LA and say it’s more dense and compare it to borough that is in the same range but also magnitudes larger total pop.
      - kenhwang 1y ago
        Not sure why you have the impression Waymos follow written driving rules. Here in LA they break every rule that LA drivers would with the aggressiveness to match. It really does seem like they try to make them drive as "human" as possible, with all the typical behavior found in the locale. I can't imagine it'd be any different in NYC.
infecto 1y ago
There is a question, NYC driving gets by with everyone driving aggressive and breaking road rules. That is something that does not exist as much in other markets. My complaint with Tesla city FSD is that it’s not quick or aggressive enough. It will come to long and complete stops and other things that will not work well in NYC.
- dazc 1y ago
  I think you'd be surprised how aggressive driving has become normalized throughout the world?
  - infecto 1y ago
    I drive when I travel, though not in NYC these days but being a pedestrian gives you a good enough view. LA from a city driving perspective at least for me is not comparable to most of NYC.
  - brettgriffin 1y ago
    The world, for sure. But not in America. I've driven in most major US cities and I drive daily in NYC. There really is no comparison in any other major US city to how we drive in NYC.
jjice 1y ago
NYC (at least the parts I've spent a bit of time in) is pretty grid like with fairly simple roads. The drivers are the hard part :) I am excited to see them tackle Boston at some point because of how strange some of those roads are. The first time I had ever been I came to an intersection that was all one ways and there were like 7 entry/exit points. My GPS said turn left, but there were three paths I'd consider left. Thank god I was walking. And I don't really pose much doubt because it seems like Waymo's rollout plan has been solid, but I'm just interested to see how well they tackle different cities.
- cguess 1y ago
  Next time go below 14th street. The grid is great but very misleading. NYC has had 400+ years of development, and it's deeply not homogenous in its design.
fragmede 1y ago
What I don't get about the "checkmate robots" mentality is that, like, get it working in sunny California with no snow, and then get it working in the snow, seems like the way to do it, not, solve all possible problems before anyone knows you're even trying and can make fun of you.
ufmace 1y ago
I think the main difference for NYC is that quite a few streets and intersections routinely have 10x to 100x the pedestrian traffic of the busiest such intersections in pretty much any other American city. That's not to say that I don't think it'll be able to handle it, just that it'll be a new challenge. I wonder if their current program of apparently trying to positively track every single moving object in range will survive that, or whether they'll need to figure out some algorithm to prioritize objects that are more likely to be of concern to it. And there probably are more than a few places where pedestrians are numerous and densely crowded enough that you can't positively track all of them, even with a bunch of LIDAR sensors.
aprilthird2021 1y ago
This type of edge case covering is pretty essential to the jobs of most on this board. It doesn't surprise me to see it.
asah 1y ago
The big difference is that NYC is less law abiding and more devious. Unless you've lived here, you have no idea the lengths new yorkers will go to scam and vandalize. Source: grew up in NY, moved 25 years in SF. Love Waymo, big investment in Google.
IshKebab 1y ago
I don't think they've really launched anywhere challenging yet though. Nothing like London for example, and that's probably middle of the scale. Obviously starting in the easy places is the right move, but I don't think you can dismiss the comments like that.

nine_k 1y ago

NYC is also one of the most regularly built out cities, in stark contrast to Boston, for instance. OTOH roads here may be 3 or even 4 levels high at the same point (e.g. where Manhattan bridge meets Brooklyn), and GPS is sometimes way off in canyons between skyscrapers.

xnx 1y ago
> OTOH roads here may be 3 or even 4 levels high at the same point And here I thought Chicago was complex with lower lower Wacker (just 3 levels). > GPS is sometimes way off in canyons between skyscrapers This is probably very challenging for human drivers using navigation, but probably no nearly as much of a problem for a Waymo car with onboard 3D maps of the entire operating area.
cma 1y ago
HD mapping gives much better than GPS I would imagine.

hardwaregeek 1y ago

Yeah I’m skeptical that robots will ever be perfect drivers but the bar isn’t perfect it’s better than human and that’s certainly possible.

TulliusCicero 1y ago
Yup, the data so far seems to indicate that Waymo is substantially safe than average drivers. Obviously it's not inclusive yet since the tech is still new (and while the study I'm thinking of was done by a third party, it's still Waymo that handed over the data and paid them to analyze it).

SirMaster 1y ago

>despite having already launched service in several other cities. Why does having launched in other cities matter if the new city brings up things that none of the other launched cities do? For example the first thing I can think of new for New York is snow and ice. It's my understanding that self-driving cars don't really account their acceleration and braking for roads that could sometimes be very slippery due to snow and ice.

potatolicious 1y ago
> "Why does having launched in other cities matter if the new city brings up things that none of the other launched cities do?" New requirements come up all the time in technology. The existence of a new requirement isn't in and of itself justification for skepticism - is there a particular reason to believe that Waymo is not capable of solving for the new requirement? The answer may be yes, but simply "ahah! It would need to do [new thing]!" is insufficient. "[new thing] is likely intractable because [reason]" would be more justification for skepticism. > "It's my understanding that self-driving cars don't really account their acceleration and braking for roads that could sometimes be very slippery due to snow and ice." Sure, but like above - is there a reason this is an intractable problem? I'll throw this out there: your human-driven car already accounts for acceleration and braking on slippery roads, without the need for the human. Traction control systems and electronic stability control systems exist! They're in fact incredibly common on modern cars.
- SirMaster 1y ago
  >I'll throw this out there: your human-driven car already accounts for acceleration and braking on slippery roads, without the need for the human. Traction control systems and electronic stability control systems exist! They're in fact incredibly common on modern cars. These systems don't help with the problems I am talking about. You have to drive completely differently in heavy snow, significantly slower, brake sooner, turn less sharp, accelerate much slower, leave significantly larger gaps, leave space to move out of the way and be ready to move if someone behind you is coming at you too fast and can't stop in time, etc. I've spend my entire life in the midwest. The traction control system in my 2023 camry didn't help one bit when I applied the brakes on black ice and the car didn't react at all, it just kept sliding at the same speed across the ice.

John23832 1y ago

Roads in Texas specifically just seem to do whatever they want, whenever they want. It's really apparent that Texas local roads used to be wagon trails. The grid system in NYC seems like a good alternative for a rollout. Though the current NYC human drivers will hate these things. I also expect LOTS of vandalism.

testfrequency 1y ago

Since Waymo is very reliable in LA and SF, you will be just fine in NYC. Your grid system is far less of a challenge than the amount of hills, twists, narrow streets and low visibility back streets in California. I genuinely think the most complicated challenge for Waymo in NYC will be…winter snow and ice.

infecto 1y ago
I would argue those two areas are very different though. The Bay Area is not as dense or as many aggressive drivers as NYC.
- testfrequency 1y ago
  My point wasn’t to say they are the same, more that SF and LA (I would guess) have covered and defeated almost every single challenge and obstacle for an urban environment (sans..weather). LA also has far denser areas than SF, places like DTLA and Koreatown are more dense than most boroughs in NYC (sans Manhattan).
  - infecto 1y ago
    My point was that it will be interesting to see how well it works in NYC where the only way to drive is aggressively in city streets breaking the rules. LA has its share of aggressive driving but as someone who has driven in both, NYC felt like I had to break the rules to go anywhere, LA not so much. Hard to really compare a tiny piece of LA and say it’s more dense and compare it to borough that is in the same range but also magnitudes larger total pop.
    - kenhwang 1y ago
      Not sure why you have the impression Waymos follow written driving rules. Here in LA they break every rule that LA drivers would with the aggressiveness to match. It really does seem like they try to make them drive as "human" as possible, with all the typical behavior found in the locale. I can't imagine it'd be any different in NYC.

infecto 1y ago

There is a question, NYC driving gets by with everyone driving aggressive and breaking road rules. That is something that does not exist as much in other markets. My complaint with Tesla city FSD is that it’s not quick or aggressive enough. It will come to long and complete stops and other things that will not work well in NYC.

dazc 1y ago
I think you'd be surprised how aggressive driving has become normalized throughout the world?
- infecto 1y ago
  I drive when I travel, though not in NYC these days but being a pedestrian gives you a good enough view. LA from a city driving perspective at least for me is not comparable to most of NYC.
- brettgriffin 1y ago
  The world, for sure. But not in America. I've driven in most major US cities and I drive daily in NYC. There really is no comparison in any other major US city to how we drive in NYC.

jjice 1y ago

NYC (at least the parts I've spent a bit of time in) is pretty grid like with fairly simple roads. The drivers are the hard part :) I am excited to see them tackle Boston at some point because of how strange some of those roads are. The first time I had ever been I came to an intersection that was all one ways and there were like 7 entry/exit points. My GPS said turn left, but there were three paths I'd consider left. Thank god I was walking. And I don't really pose much doubt because it seems like Waymo's rollout plan has been solid, but I'm just interested to see how well they tackle different cities.

cguess 1y ago
Next time go below 14th street. The grid is great but very misleading. NYC has had 400+ years of development, and it's deeply not homogenous in its design.

fragmede 1y ago

What I don't get about the "checkmate robots" mentality is that, like, get it working in sunny California with no snow, and then get it working in the snow, seems like the way to do it, not, solve all possible problems before anyone knows you're even trying and can make fun of you.

ufmace 1y ago

I think the main difference for NYC is that quite a few streets and intersections routinely have 10x to 100x the pedestrian traffic of the busiest such intersections in pretty much any other American city. That's not to say that I don't think it'll be able to handle it, just that it'll be a new challenge. I wonder if their current program of apparently trying to positively track every single moving object in range will survive that, or whether they'll need to figure out some algorithm to prioritize objects that are more likely to be of concern to it. And there probably are more than a few places where pedestrians are numerous and densely crowded enough that you can't positively track all of them, even with a bunch of LIDAR sensors.

aprilthird2021 1y ago

This type of edge case covering is pretty essential to the jobs of most on this board. It doesn't surprise me to see it.

asah 1y ago

The big difference is that NYC is less law abiding and more devious. Unless you've lived here, you have no idea the lengths new yorkers will go to scam and vandalize. Source: grew up in NY, moved 25 years in SF. Love Waymo, big investment in Google.

IshKebab 1y ago

I don't think they've really launched anywhere challenging yet though. Nothing like London for example, and that's probably middle of the scale. Obviously starting in the easy places is the right move, but I don't think you can dismiss the comments like that.