5 ms·

I don't get how post GPT-5's launch we're still getting articles where the punchline is "what if these things replace a BUNCH of humans".

markmoscov 1y ago
what if they replace internet comments? As a large language model developed by OpenAI I am unable to fulfill that request.
- asciimov 1y ago
  Not sure the last time you went on reddit, but I wouldn't be surprised if around 20% of posts and comments there are LLM generated.
mrbungie 1y ago
People just want to feel special pointing a possibility, so in case it happens, they can then point towards their "insight".
- nurettin 1y ago
  Or they are experts in one field and think that they have valuable insight into other fields they are not experts on.
- ares623 1y ago
  I kind of want to put up a wall of fame/shame of these people to be honest. Whether they turn out right or wrong, they undoubtedly cheered on the prospect of millions of people suffering just so they can sound good at the family dinner. I wouldn’t want to work for or with these people.
  - Davidzheng 1y ago
    sorry but prediction and cheering on is different. If there's a tsunami coming, not speaking about it doesn't help the cause.
stephc_int13 1y ago
Salvatore is right about the fact that we have not seen the full story yet, LLMs are stalling/plateauing but active research is already ongoing to find different architectures and models. And I think the effort here can be compared in scale to the Manhattan or Apollo projects, but there is also the potential for a huge backlash to the hype that was built up and created what is arguably a bubble, so this is a race against the clock. I also think he is wrong about the markets reaction, markets are inherently good integrators and bad predictors, we should not expect to learn anything about the future by looking at stocks movements.
- BoorishBears 1y ago
  > Salvatore is right about the fact that we have not seen the full story yet, LLMs are stalling/plateauing but active research is already ongoing to find different architectures and models. They will need to be so different that any talk implying current LLMs eventually replaced humans will be like saying trees eventually replaced horses because the first cars were wooden. > And I think the effort here can be compared in scale to the Manhattan or Apollo projects, but there is also the potential for a huge backlash to the hype that was built up and created what is arguably a bubble, so this is a race against the clock. It's not useful to blindly compare scale. We're not approaching AI like the Manhattan or Apollo projects, we're approaching this like we did crypto, and ads, and other tech. That's not to say nothing useful will come out of it, I think very amazing things will come out of it and already have... but none of them will resemble mass replacement of skilled workers. We're already so focused on productization and typical tech distractions that this is nothing like those efforts. (In fact thinking a bit more, I'd say this is like the Space Shuttle. We didn't try to make the best spacecraft for scientific exploration and hope later on it'd be profitable in other ways... instead we immediately saddled it with serving what the Air Force/DoD wanted and ended up doing everything worse.) > I also think he is wrong about the markets reaction, markets are inherently good integrators and bad predictors, we should not expect to learn anything about the future by looking at stocks movements. I agree, so it's wrong about the over half of punchline too.
  - noduerme 1y ago
nojito 1y ago
The amount of innovation in the last 6-8 months has been insane.
- BoorishBears 1y ago
  Innovation in terms of helping devs do cool things has been insane. There've been next to no advancements relative to what's needed to redefine our economic systems by replacing the majority of skilled workers. - Productionizing test-time compute covers 80% of what we've gotten in the last 6-8 months. Advancements in distillation and quantization cover the 20% of the rest... neither unlocks some path to mass unemployment. What we're doing is like 10x'ing your vertical leap when your goal is to land on the moon: 10x is very impressive and you're going to dominate some stuff in ways no one ever thought possible. But you can 100x it and it's still not getting you to the moon.
energy123 1y ago
I have to tap the sign whenever someone talks about "GPT-5" > AI is exceptional for coding! [high-compute scaffold around multiple instances / undisclosed IOI model / AlphaEvolve] > AI is awesome for coding! [Gpt-5 Pro] > AI is somewhat awesome for coding! ["gpt-5" with verbosity "high" and effort "high"] > AI is a pretty good at coding! [ChatGPT 5 Thinking through a Pro subscription with Juice of 128] > AI is mediocre at coding! [ChatGPT 5 Thinking through a Plus subscription with a Juice of 64] > AI sucks at coding! [ChatGPT 5 auto routing]
K0balt 1y ago
LLMs are limited because we want them to do jobs that are not clearly defined / have difficult to measure progress or success metrics / are not fully solved problems (open ended) / have poor grounding in an external reality. Robotics does not suffer from those maladies. There are other hurdles, but none are intractable. I think we might see AI being much, much more effective with embodiment.
- jazzyjackson 1y ago
  do you know how undefined and difficult to measure it is to load silverware into a dishwasher?
  - K0balt 1y ago
    As someone who actually has built robots to solve similar challenges, I’ve got a pretty good idea of that specific problem. Not too far from putting sticks in a cup, which is doable with a lot of situational variance. Will it do as good a job a competent adult? Probably not. Will it do it as well as the average 6 year old kid? Yeah, probably. But given enough properly loaded dishwashers to work from, I think you might be surprised how effective VLA/VLB models can be. We just need a few hundred thousand man hours of dishwasher loading for training data.
- chrisco255 1y ago
  What? Robotics will have far more ambiguity and nuance to deal with than language models, and they'll have to analyze realtime audio and video to do so. Jobs are not so clearly defined as you imagine in the real world. For example, explain to me what a plumber does, precisely and how you would train a robot to do so? How do you train it to navigate ANY type of buildings internal plumbing structure and safely repair or install for?
  - K0balt 1y ago
    I don’t think robot plumbers are coming anytime soon lol. Robot warehouse workers, factory robots, cleaning robots, delivery robots, security robots, general services robots, sure. Stuff you can give someone 0-20 hours of training and expect them to do 80% as well as someone who has been doing it for 5 years are the kinds of jobs that robots will be able to do, but perhaps with certain technical skills bolted on. Plumbing a requires the effective understanding and application of engineering knowledge, and I don’t think unsupervised transformer models are going to do that well. Trades like plumbing that take humans 10-20 years to truly master aren’t the low hanging fruit. A robot that can pick up a few boxes of roofing at a time and carry it up the ladder is what we need.
juped 1y ago
I think GPT-5's backlash was the beginning of the end of the hype bubble, but there's a lot of air to let out of it, as with any hype bubble. We'll see it for quite some time yet.
bravesoul2 1y ago
What does that have to do with it? One company (desperate to keep runway), one product, one release.

markmoscov 1y ago

what if they replace internet comments? As a large language model developed by OpenAI I am unable to fulfill that request.

asciimov 1y ago
Not sure the last time you went on reddit, but I wouldn't be surprised if around 20% of posts and comments there are LLM generated.

mrbungie 1y ago

People just want to feel special pointing a possibility, so in case it happens, they can then point towards their "insight".

nurettin 1y ago
Or they are experts in one field and think that they have valuable insight into other fields they are not experts on.
ares623 1y ago
I kind of want to put up a wall of fame/shame of these people to be honest. Whether they turn out right or wrong, they undoubtedly cheered on the prospect of millions of people suffering just so they can sound good at the family dinner. I wouldn’t want to work for or with these people.
- Davidzheng 1y ago
  sorry but prediction and cheering on is different. If there's a tsunami coming, not speaking about it doesn't help the cause.

stephc_int13 1y ago

Salvatore is right about the fact that we have not seen the full story yet, LLMs are stalling/plateauing but active research is already ongoing to find different architectures and models. And I think the effort here can be compared in scale to the Manhattan or Apollo projects, but there is also the potential for a huge backlash to the hype that was built up and created what is arguably a bubble, so this is a race against the clock. I also think he is wrong about the markets reaction, markets are inherently good integrators and bad predictors, we should not expect to learn anything about the future by looking at stocks movements.

BoorishBears 1y ago
> Salvatore is right about the fact that we have not seen the full story yet, LLMs are stalling/plateauing but active research is already ongoing to find different architectures and models. They will need to be so different that any talk implying current LLMs eventually replaced humans will be like saying trees eventually replaced horses because the first cars were wooden. > And I think the effort here can be compared in scale to the Manhattan or Apollo projects, but there is also the potential for a huge backlash to the hype that was built up and created what is arguably a bubble, so this is a race against the clock. It's not useful to blindly compare scale. We're not approaching AI like the Manhattan or Apollo projects, we're approaching this like we did crypto, and ads, and other tech. That's not to say nothing useful will come out of it, I think very amazing things will come out of it and already have... but none of them will resemble mass replacement of skilled workers. We're already so focused on productization and typical tech distractions that this is nothing like those efforts. (In fact thinking a bit more, I'd say this is like the Space Shuttle. We didn't try to make the best spacecraft for scientific exploration and hope later on it'd be profitable in other ways... instead we immediately saddled it with serving what the Air Force/DoD wanted and ended up doing everything worse.) > I also think he is wrong about the markets reaction, markets are inherently good integrators and bad predictors, we should not expect to learn anything about the future by looking at stocks movements. I agree, so it's wrong about the over half of punchline too.
- noduerme 1y ago

nojito 1y ago

The amount of innovation in the last 6-8 months has been insane.

BoorishBears 1y ago
Innovation in terms of helping devs do cool things has been insane. There've been next to no advancements relative to what's needed to redefine our economic systems by replacing the majority of skilled workers. - Productionizing test-time compute covers 80% of what we've gotten in the last 6-8 months. Advancements in distillation and quantization cover the 20% of the rest... neither unlocks some path to mass unemployment. What we're doing is like 10x'ing your vertical leap when your goal is to land on the moon: 10x is very impressive and you're going to dominate some stuff in ways no one ever thought possible. But you can 100x it and it's still not getting you to the moon.

energy123 1y ago

I have to tap the sign whenever someone talks about "GPT-5" > AI is exceptional for coding! [high-compute scaffold around multiple instances / undisclosed IOI model / AlphaEvolve] > AI is awesome for coding! [Gpt-5 Pro] > AI is somewhat awesome for coding! ["gpt-5" with verbosity "high" and effort "high"] > AI is a pretty good at coding! [ChatGPT 5 Thinking through a Pro subscription with Juice of 128] > AI is mediocre at coding! [ChatGPT 5 Thinking through a Plus subscription with a Juice of 64] > AI sucks at coding! [ChatGPT 5 auto routing]

K0balt 1y ago

LLMs are limited because we want them to do jobs that are not clearly defined / have difficult to measure progress or success metrics / are not fully solved problems (open ended) / have poor grounding in an external reality. Robotics does not suffer from those maladies. There are other hurdles, but none are intractable. I think we might see AI being much, much more effective with embodiment.

jazzyjackson 1y ago
do you know how undefined and difficult to measure it is to load silverware into a dishwasher?
- K0balt 1y ago
  As someone who actually has built robots to solve similar challenges, I’ve got a pretty good idea of that specific problem. Not too far from putting sticks in a cup, which is doable with a lot of situational variance. Will it do as good a job a competent adult? Probably not. Will it do it as well as the average 6 year old kid? Yeah, probably. But given enough properly loaded dishwashers to work from, I think you might be surprised how effective VLA/VLB models can be. We just need a few hundred thousand man hours of dishwasher loading for training data.
chrisco255 1y ago
What? Robotics will have far more ambiguity and nuance to deal with than language models, and they'll have to analyze realtime audio and video to do so. Jobs are not so clearly defined as you imagine in the real world. For example, explain to me what a plumber does, precisely and how you would train a robot to do so? How do you train it to navigate ANY type of buildings internal plumbing structure and safely repair or install for?
- K0balt 1y ago
  I don’t think robot plumbers are coming anytime soon lol. Robot warehouse workers, factory robots, cleaning robots, delivery robots, security robots, general services robots, sure. Stuff you can give someone 0-20 hours of training and expect them to do 80% as well as someone who has been doing it for 5 years are the kinds of jobs that robots will be able to do, but perhaps with certain technical skills bolted on. Plumbing a requires the effective understanding and application of engineering knowledge, and I don’t think unsupervised transformer models are going to do that well. Trades like plumbing that take humans 10-20 years to truly master aren’t the low hanging fruit. A robot that can pick up a few boxes of roofing at a time and carry it up the ladder is what we need.

juped 1y ago

I think GPT-5's backlash was the beginning of the end of the hype bubble, but there's a lot of air to let out of it, as with any hype bubble. We'll see it for quite some time yet.

bravesoul2 1y ago

What does that have to do with it? One company (desperate to keep runway), one product, one release.