5 ms·

And this is after they massaged the numbers, to avoid getting fired?

by BartjeD 1y ago

mhh__ 1y ago
Now we only get to hear if inflation is "Aladeen" or "Aladeen"
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- qzw 1y ago
  Employment aladeen, inflation aladeen. Chances of stagflation looking very aladeen indeed.
  - mrbombastic 1y ago
    :(…:)…:(
  - mhh__ 1y ago
    It makes our macro forecasting a bit less dimensional...
pm90 1y ago
I don't think any existing numbers were officially changed, just that the head of BLS was fired.
- hiddencost 1y ago
  They fired the head of the BLS because they didn't like the numbers. Explicitly. You kinda have to conclude they're going to cook the books. Like they're doing everywhere else.
  - jcranmer 1y ago
    Apparently, they've decided to go with "just not report the numbers." (Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trumps-bls-pick-could-pause-monthly-jobs-report-over-accuracy-concerns https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trumps-bls-pick-could-p...).
    - temp_praneshp 1y ago
      That interview was unfortunately timed (taped before nomination, broadcast afterward). My takeaway was that they are not trying "just not report the numbers" _yet_.
      - sjsdaiuasgdia 1y ago
        Do you think his position has changed since that interview?
        BobaFloutist 1y ago
        I think his position changes between breakfast and lunch.
    - neilv 1y ago
      I still like the quote, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias."
      - throw0101a 1y ago
        > I still like the quote, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Colbert_at_the_2006_White_House_Correspondents%27_Dinner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Colbert_at_the_2006_Wh...
- outside1234 1y ago
  Yes, for THAT head of the BLS. It is super clear to the next head of the BLS that they deliver the number the president likes or they will be fired. So, just like in Venezuela, that number will be delivered.
  - JKCalhoun 1y ago
    Picturing a future political cartoon of hobo-looking guys sitting around a winter fire burning in an old oil drum — one guy is holding up a newspaper (wut?) and saying to the rest, "Hey guys, it's fine because it says here that the employment numbers reported are the best ever!"
    - samfriedman 1y ago
      You mean like this one? http://emilysquotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EmilysQuotes.Com-planet-destroy-beautiful-moment-time-value-sahreholders-sad-greed-people-earth-consequences-unknown.jpg http://emilysquotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EmilysQuo...
      - JKCalhoun 1y ago
        Timeless, ha ha.
        fuzzfactor 1y ago
        If value was actually created every time before it was distributed to shareholders, it wouldn't be nearly as bleak as when the value is instead rapidly extracted from a long-term reservoir to make the numbers go up.
  - whimsicalism 1y ago
    wanna bet? i will take a bet that inflation will not return to normal (ie. sub 2.1) in the next report
    - 1y ago
ferguess_k 1y ago
I think it's more like "No Sir we won't be able to lower the rate right now, look at this number" moment.
diego_moita 1y ago
In the end, it won't matter. Only economists, policy makers, investors and people blabbing on the internet do care about stats. Ordinary people just look at price tags; that's all they need.
- bobbylarrybobby 1y ago
  It's nice to have agreed-upon, citable facts though, even if only so that voters know who's full of crap during a debate. When the next R candidate says that Trump handled inflation beautifully, it's important to be able to point to an authoritative source that shows that that claim is BS.
  - diego_moita 1y ago
    Yes, it *would be* nice to have well-informed voters and intelligent and well-argued discussions. But we'll never live in a place like that. We're stuck in the Facebook/Twitter/WhatsApp world. Democracy is a circus managed by the monkey cage.
    - throw0101a 1y ago
      > Yes, it would be nice to have well-informed voters and intelligent and well-argued discussions. "Feelings don't care about (your) facts." — not Ben Shapiro, https://www.amazon.com/Facts-Dont-Care-about-Feelings/dp/1949673162 https://www.amazon.com/Facts-Dont-Care-about-Feelings/dp/194... "You don’t bring facts to a feelings fight." — Cole Christie, https://www.in8create.com/blog/herding-squirrels-ep-03-w-cole-christie https://www.in8create.com/blog/herding-squirrels-ep-03-w-col...
  - dpkirchner 1y ago
    The majority of R voters don't care about authoritative sources. In fact, authority when it comes to information is a negative in their view, based on all available evidence (ie elections over the past few decades). We're well past the point that debates matter.
    - 1y ago
the_real_cher 1y ago
Inflation too high? Straight to jail. Inflation to low? Believe it or not, straight to jail.
motbus3 1y ago
More like the Epstein Massage

And this is after they massaged the numbers, to avoid getting fired?

mhh__ 1y ago

Now we only get to hear if inflation is "Aladeen" or "Aladeen"

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
qzw 1y ago
Employment aladeen, inflation aladeen. Chances of stagflation looking very aladeen indeed.
- mrbombastic 1y ago
  :(…:)…:(
- mhh__ 1y ago
  It makes our macro forecasting a bit less dimensional...

pm90 1y ago

I don't think any existing numbers were officially changed, just that the head of BLS was fired.

hiddencost 1y ago
They fired the head of the BLS because they didn't like the numbers. Explicitly. You kinda have to conclude they're going to cook the books. Like they're doing everywhere else.
- jcranmer 1y ago
  Apparently, they've decided to go with "just not report the numbers." (Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trumps-bls-pick-could-pause-monthly-jobs-report-over-accuracy-concerns https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trumps-bls-pick-could-p...).
  - temp_praneshp 1y ago
    That interview was unfortunately timed (taped before nomination, broadcast afterward). My takeaway was that they are not trying "just not report the numbers" _yet_.
    - sjsdaiuasgdia 1y ago
      Do you think his position has changed since that interview?
      - BobaFloutist 1y ago
        I think his position changes between breakfast and lunch.
  - neilv 1y ago
    I still like the quote, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias."
    - throw0101a 1y ago
      > I still like the quote, "Reality has a well-known liberal bias." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Colbert_at_the_2006_White_House_Correspondents%27_Dinner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Colbert_at_the_2006_Wh...
outside1234 1y ago
Yes, for THAT head of the BLS. It is super clear to the next head of the BLS that they deliver the number the president likes or they will be fired. So, just like in Venezuela, that number will be delivered.
- JKCalhoun 1y ago
  Picturing a future political cartoon of hobo-looking guys sitting around a winter fire burning in an old oil drum — one guy is holding up a newspaper (wut?) and saying to the rest, "Hey guys, it's fine because it says here that the employment numbers reported are the best ever!"
  - samfriedman 1y ago
    You mean like this one? http://emilysquotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EmilysQuotes.Com-planet-destroy-beautiful-moment-time-value-sahreholders-sad-greed-people-earth-consequences-unknown.jpg http://emilysquotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EmilysQuo...
    - JKCalhoun 1y ago
      Timeless, ha ha.
      - fuzzfactor 1y ago
        If value was actually created every time before it was distributed to shareholders, it wouldn't be nearly as bleak as when the value is instead rapidly extracted from a long-term reservoir to make the numbers go up.
- whimsicalism 1y ago
  wanna bet? i will take a bet that inflation will not return to normal (ie. sub 2.1) in the next report
  - 1y ago

ferguess_k 1y ago

I think it's more like "No Sir we won't be able to lower the rate right now, look at this number" moment.

diego_moita 1y ago

In the end, it won't matter. Only economists, policy makers, investors and people blabbing on the internet do care about stats. Ordinary people just look at price tags; that's all they need.

bobbylarrybobby 1y ago
It's nice to have agreed-upon, citable facts though, even if only so that voters know who's full of crap during a debate. When the next R candidate says that Trump handled inflation beautifully, it's important to be able to point to an authoritative source that shows that that claim is BS.
- diego_moita 1y ago
  Yes, it *would be* nice to have well-informed voters and intelligent and well-argued discussions. But we'll never live in a place like that. We're stuck in the Facebook/Twitter/WhatsApp world. Democracy is a circus managed by the monkey cage.
  - throw0101a 1y ago
    > Yes, it would be nice to have well-informed voters and intelligent and well-argued discussions. "Feelings don't care about (your) facts." — not Ben Shapiro, https://www.amazon.com/Facts-Dont-Care-about-Feelings/dp/1949673162 https://www.amazon.com/Facts-Dont-Care-about-Feelings/dp/194... "You don’t bring facts to a feelings fight." — Cole Christie, https://www.in8create.com/blog/herding-squirrels-ep-03-w-cole-christie https://www.in8create.com/blog/herding-squirrels-ep-03-w-col...
- dpkirchner 1y ago
  The majority of R voters don't care about authoritative sources. In fact, authority when it comes to information is a negative in their view, based on all available evidence (ie elections over the past few decades). We're well past the point that debates matter.
  - 1y ago

the_real_cher 1y ago

Inflation too high? Straight to jail. Inflation to low? Believe it or not, straight to jail.

motbus3 1y ago

More like the Epstein Massage