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Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, more than expected
- vdupras 1y agoNews outlets have been feeding us with annualized rates, which is making this 0.9 figure sound pale, but it's pretty big because it's for July only. Times 12, it means inflation over 10%. The 3.3% annualized figure in the article is because they've been averaging the past 12 months. Something in July made the prices jack up in a really serious way.
- jjgreen 1y agoBaffling.
- treetalker 1y agoClearly a rogue agent in the BLS deep state is adulterating the reported data!
- PaulHoule 1y agoIsn't that when the tariffs really took effect?
- mlinhares 1y agoNot only that but a lot of businesses built inventories before the tariffs took place and we're seeing that gone now, from now on we'll likely see more increases as everything that is showing up has a tariff applied.
- zahlman 1y ago> The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. The markets knew about the tariffs when they came up with that estimate.
- marcosdumay 1y agoThe relationship between tariffs and inflation is very complex. In a consumer-based economy, they shouldn't even have any. Society would just react to tariffs with some deflation elsewhere. But since the US economy is now investment-based (a WTF for some other post), there should be some, but I would still expect not much of it. IMO, that's almost all due to the tax policy.
- isbwkisbakadqv 1y agoIs one month really enough data to distinguish signal from noise?
- vdupras 1y agoYou mean that in the sense "is it too soon to say we'll have a 10% inflation year?". Certainly, and I don't mean that. I just want to counter the general "annualized inflation figure numbness". But this is not noise. Prices are a real signal.
- marcosdumay 1y agoJust to be pedantic, but the 10% number is the one that is annualized (that is, if an entire year had that monthly rate, what would its inflation be?). It's also not times 12, inflation composes, so it totals to ~11.3%. The 3.3% figure is annual, normally called "last 12 months" to avoid confusion with a fixed year.
- LargeWu 1y agoI think that what they're saying is because inflation numbers are typically presented as an annual number (3.3%), when you hear a number like 0.9% it sounds lower to somebody who is not economically literate. "Prices increased 0.9% in July, which would translate to an annual inflation rate of 11.3%" is one way to say it with more clarity. Also, Trump has a habit of picking numbers out of context when they suit his personal narrative. For example, not long ago he said something like "The price of gas is down to $1.98 per gallon" when in fact that that number was something along of the lines of the wholesale price. So it's no wonder people are misinformed when they get misleading economic information.
- marcosdumay 1y agoYes. I was just pointing that the names are the other way around. The OP's argument is correct.
- PaulHoule 1y agohttps://archive.ph/JmMFk https://archive.ph/JmMFk
- almog 1y agoYou can read the actual BLS PPI release here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf Another thing to watch for is the BLS import prices which show prices excluding tariffs. If these remain flat for July as they did for June, it would be another data point suggesting tariffs induced inflation.
- belter 1y agoYou wont see more reports. "Trump's pick to lead economic data agency floats ending monthly jobs report" - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czerwl2xee4o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czerwl2xee4o
- xnx 1y agoMore discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44899685 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44899685
- SamPatt 1y agoIt's always been incredible to me that inflation is treated as though it emerges organically, "aww shucks, I sure wish my money didn't keep losing value randomly!" This is the result of policy decisions with well-understood outcomes. 0% interest rates for years, printing unprecedented amounts of money during COVID, historically high tariffs, etc. Now we'll all be 3%-10% poorer, in a single year, yet I see no accountability. In fact, I see people pressuring the Fed to lower (!) rates, the tariffs don't seem to be going anywhere, and government spending and debt are at all-time highs. I genuinely cannot understand this. If your actions will predictably make everyone poorer, and then the predictions come true, how can this not result in widespread loss of trust in governance?
- Analemma_ 1y agoIt’s not “people” pressuring the Fed to lower rates, it’s one person in particular. All the other intelligent people around know that lowering interest rates when you just added a boatload of inflationary pressure is idiotic, but that doesn’t count for anything anymore.
- SamPatt 1y agoI hear you, he's the most vocal at the moment, but low interest rates have been popular among many policymakers and intellectuals throughout the history of monetary policy. _The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest_ by Edward Chancellor goes in depth on this, a really interesting read.
- bryanlarsen 1y agoGo back and listen to the first 10 minutes of the debate again. Kamala tried to warn us about this. It's also quite clear that Kamala lost the first 10 minutes of the debate. It's only later on when Trump went full-Trump that Kamala was able to turn the debate around. You can blame it on Kamala, Trump, the media or the American public, but this sort of stuff is very hard to communicate effectively. Tariffs are taxes and are inflationary. "China is going to pay" is a lie. People tried to communicate this, but weren't believed, so gave up.
- JKCalhoun 1y agoMarkets this morning seem to have noticed. But the way "the markets" have behaved so far, I expect a full turnaround and record S&P500 numbers by close today.
- rescripting 1y agoHave they? Major indexes are down a few tenths of a percent as of 10am EST...
- JKCalhoun 1y agoYou're right — but all week when I've checked after some new bad numbers, the markets were up. But, sure, they'll be back in the black soon enough today.
- JKCalhoun 1y agoHmmm... still down. Oh well, they'll be up again tomorrow.
- paulpauper 1y agoafter big gains earlier in the week
- micromacrofoot 1y agovibe economy doesn't operate on facts
- JKCalhoun 1y agoOr is it a meme economy?
- micromacrofoot 1y agomemes are a manifestation of vibes, darmok and jalad at tanagra
- 1y ago
- outside1234 1y agoThe Trump tariffs / massive billionaire deficit tax cut / chaos start to hit home. The amazing thing to me is that markets aren't tanking on this news. Are they just pricing in that prices will go up, so revenue with go up, and if margin maintains, profit will go up by a similar amount?
- FrustratedMonky 1y agoAngry people shaking fist at the sky "BIIIIDEEEEN"