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Yeah. I just need to babysit it too much. Take copilot, it gives good suggestions and blows me away sometimes with a block of code which is exactly what I'd typ
by mavamaarten 1y ago
Yeah. I just need to babysit it too much. Take copilot, it gives good suggestions and blows me away sometimes with a block of code which is exactly what I'd type. But actively letting it code (at least with gpt4.1 or gpt4o) just doesn't work well enough for me. Half of the time it doesn't even compile, and after fixing that it's just not really correctly working either. I'd expect it to work like a very junior programmer, but it works like a very drunk senior programmer that isn't listening to you very well at all.
- ffsm8 1y agoTo date, I've not been able to effectively use Copilot in any projects. The suggestions were always unusably bad. The /fix were always obviously and straight up false unless it was a super silly issue. Claude Code with Opus model on the other hand was mind-blowing to me and made me change my mind on almost everything wrt my opinion of LLMs for coding. You still need to grow the skill of how to build the context and formulate the prompt, but the buildin execution loop is a complete game changer and I didn't realize that until I actually used it effectively on a toy project myself. MCP in particular was another thing I always thought was massively over hyped, until I actually started to use some in the same toy project. Frankly, the building blocks already exist at this point to make a vast majority of all jobs redundant (and I'm thinking about all grunt work office jobs, not coding in particular). The tooling still need to be created, so I'm not seeing a short term realization (<2 yrs), but medium term (5+yrs)? You should expect most companies to let people go at staggering numbers, with only small amounts of highly skilled people left to administer the agents
- necovek 1y agoThanks for this perspective, but I am a bit confused by some of your takes: you used "Claude Code with Opus model" in "the same toy project" with great success, which led you to conclude that this will "make a vast majority of all jobs redundant". Toy project viability does not connect with making people redundant in the process (ever, really) — at least not for me. Care to elaborate where do you draw the optimism from?
- ffsm8 1y agoI cannot use it on my production code base. I'm working for a company that requires the devs to code from virtual workplaces, which is a fancy term to say virtual machines running in the azure cloud. These are completely locked down and anything but copilot is forbidden from use, and enforced via firewall and process monitoring. I can still use sonnet 3.7 through that, but that's a far cry from my experience on my personal time with Claude Code. I called it a toy project because I'm not earning money with it - hence it's a toy. It does have medium complexity with roughly 100k loc though. And I think I need to repeat myself, because you seem to read something into my comment that I didn't say: the building blocks exist doesn't mean that today's tooling is sufficient for this to play out, today. I very explicitly set a time horizon of 5 yrs.
- necovek 1y agoI did not miss the time horizon: this is why I put a remark of "ever, really". "Toy project" is usually used in a different context (demonstrate something without really doing something useful): yours sounds more like a "hobby project".
- ffsm8 1y agoThat's a good point. Ive actually implemented the same project over 20 times at this point. At the heart is my hobby of reading web and light novels. I've been implementing various versions of a scraper and ePub reader for over 15 years now, ever since I started working as a programmer. I've been reimplementing it over the years with the primary goal of growing my experiences/ability. In the beginning it was a plain Django app, but it grew from that to various languages such as elixir, Java (multiple times with different architecture approaches), native Android, JS/TS Frontend and sometimes backend - react, angular, trpc, svelte tanstack and more. So I know exactly how to implement it, as I've give through a lot of version for the same functionality. And the last version I implemented (tanstack) was in July, via Claude Code and got to feature parity (and more) within roughly 3 weeks. And I might add: I'm not positive about this development either, whatsoever. I'm just expecting this to happen, to the detriment of our collective futures (as programmers)
- bluefirebrand 1y ago> You should expect most companies to let people go at staggering numbers, with only small amounts of highly skilled people left to administer the agents I'm gonna pivot to building bomb shelters maybe Or stockpiling munitions to sell during the troubles Maybe some kind of protest support saas. Molotov deliveries as a service, you still have to light them and throw them but I guarantee next day delivery and they will be ready to deploy into any data center you want to burn down What Im trying to say is "companies letting people go in staggering numbers" is a societal failure state not an ideal
- code_for_monkey 1y agoI find it so weird how many engineers seem positively giddy to get replaced by a chatbot that functionally cannot do the job. Ill help your molotovs as a service startup, free guillotine with every 6th order.
- __loam 1y agoWho buys their crap if you fire everyone?
- simonw 1y ago> You should expect most companies to let people go at staggering numbers, with only small amounts of highly skilled people left to administer the agents I don't buy that. The linked article makes a solid argument for why that's not likely to happen: agentic loop coding tools like Claude Code can speed up the "writing code and getting it working" piece, but the software development lifecycle has so much other work before you get to the "and now we let Claude Code go brrrrrrr" phase.
- ffsm8 1y agoAnd I completely agree with that! These are exactly the people that are going to stay, medium term. Let's explore a fictional example that somewhat resembles my, and I suspect a lot of peoples current dayjob. A Micro-Service architecture, each team administers 5-10 services and the whole application, which is once again only a small part of the platform as a whole is developed by maybe 100-200 devs. So something like ~200 micro services The application architects are gonna be completely save in their jobs. And so are the lead devs in each team - at least from my perspective. Anyone else? I suspect MBAs in 5 yrs will not see their value anymore. That's gonna be the vast majority of all devs, that's likely going to cost 50% of the devs their jobs. And middle management will be slimmed down just as quickly, because you suddenly need a lot less managers.
- alfiedotwtf 1y agoLet’s extreme this further - why would the company exist in the first place? The customers of said company pay them because they don’t do the service themselves - but in the future when it’s laughably easy to vibe code anything your heart desires, their customers will just build the service themselves that they used to outsource! tl;dr: in the future when vibe coding works 100% of the time, logically the only companies that will exist are the ones that have processes that AI can’t do, because all the other parts of the supply chain can all be done in-house
- ffsm8 1y agoThat scenario is a lot further out compared to what I was talking about. It's conceivable that thats going to happen, eventually. but that'd likely require models a lot more advanced to what we have now. The agent approach with lead devs administering and merging the code the agents made is feasible with today's models. The missing part is the tooling around the models and the development practices that that standardizes this workflow. That's what I'd expect to take around 5 yrs to settle.
- leptons 1y agoSo what happens when someone calls in and the "AI" answers (because the receptionist has been fired and replaced by "AI"), and the caller asks to access some company record that should be private? Will the LLM always deny the request? Hint: no, not always. There are so many flaws in your plan, I have no doubt that "AI" will ruin some companies that try to replace humans with a "tin can". LLMs are being inserted loosey-goosey into too many places by people that don't really understand the liability problems it creates. Because the LLM doesn't think, it doesn't have a job to protect, it doesn't have a family to feed. It can be gamed. It simply won't care. The flaws in "AI" are already pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. It will only get more obvious the more LLMs get pushed into places they really do not belong.
- vanviegen 1y ago> Will the LLM always deny the request? Hint: no, not always. And you are confident that the human receptionist will never fall for social engineering? I don't think data protection is even close to the biggest problem with replacing all/most employees with bots.
- leptons 1y agoThe human receptionist can use critical thinking, and self preservation to prevent a bad outcome. The LLM can not. When a person causes a problem, they can be fired, and learn from the event. The LLM will not learn from it. And who is responsible then? The company providing the LLM? The more LLM use becomes pervasive, the taller the house of cards gets.
- samtp 1y ago> until I actually started to use some in the same toy project Thats the key right there. Try to use it in a project that handles PII, needs data to be exact, or has many dependencies/libraries and needs to not break for critical business functions.
- edm0nd 1y ago>I'd expect it to work like a very junior programmer, but it works like a very drunk senior programmer that isn't listening to you very well at all. This seems to be the current consensus. A very similar quote from another recent AI article: One host compares AI chatbots to “a very smart assistant who has a dozen Ph.D.s but is also high on ketamine like 30 percent of the time.” https://lithub.com/what-happened-when-i-tried-to-replace-myself-with-chatgpt-in-my-english-classroom/ https://lithub.com/what-happened-when-i-tried-to-replace-mys...
- __loam 1y agoEven saying it has a dozen PhDs belies the reality that these things have no relationship with the truth
- briangriffinfan 1y agoYes yes yes we're all aware that these are word predictors and don't actually know anything or reason. But these random dice are somehow able to give reasonably seemingly well-educated answers a majority of the time and the fact that these programs don't technically know anything isn't going to slow the train down any.
- SpaceNoodled 1y ago"Majority" may be a bit generous, and would highly depend on the context and application.
- throwawaymaths 1y agoi just don't get why people say they don't reason. It's crazy talk. the kv cache is effectively a unidirectional turing machine so it should be possible to encode "reasoning" in there. and evidence shows that llms occasionally does some light reasoning. just because it's not great at it (hard to train for i suppose) doesn't mean it does it zero.
- briangriffinfan 1y ago
- bcrosby95 1y agoIt codes like a junior, has the design sense of a mid, while being a savant at algorithms.
- oriolid 1y agoMake it idiot at algorithms and I believe you.
- morpheos137 1y agoWhat does it really mean to know something or understand something. I think AI knows a great deal (associating facts with symbols), confabulates at times when it doesn't know (which is dishonestly called hallucination, implying a conscious agent misperceiving, which AI is not), and understands almost nothing. The best way to think of chat bot "AI" is as the compendium of human intelligence as recorded in books and online media available to it. It is not intelligent at all on its own and its judgement can't be better than its human sources because it has no biological drive to sythesize and excel. Its best to think of AI as a librarian of human knowledge or an interactive Wikipedia which is designed to seem like an intelligent agent but is actually not.
- t43562 1y agoOne cannot learn everything from books and in any case many books contradict each other so every developer is a variation based on what they have read and experienced and thought along the way. How can that get summed up into one thing? It might not even be useful to do that. I suspect that some researchers with a very different approach will come up with a neural network that learns and works more like a human in future though. Not the current LLMS but something with a much more efficient learning mechanism that doesn't require a nuclear power station to train.
- morpheos137 1y agoWhat is baffling to me is how otherwise intelligent people don't really understand what human intelligence and learning are about. They are about a biological organism following its replication algorithm. Why should a computer program learn and work like a biological organism if it is in an entirely different environment with entirely different drives? Intelligence is not some universal abstract thing acheivable after a certain computational threshold is reached. Rather its a quality of the behavior patterns of specific biological organisms following their drives.
- mullingitover 1y ago> But actively letting it code (at least with gpt4.1 or gpt4o) It's funny, Github Copilot puts these models in the 'bargin bin' (they are free in 'ask' mode, whereas the other models count against your monthly limit of premium requests) and it's pretty clear why, they seem downright nerfed. They're tolerable for basic questions but you wouldn't use them if price weren't a concern. Brandwise, I don't think it does OpenAI any favors to have their models be priced as 'worthless' compared to the other models on premium request limits.
- ewoodrich 1y agoShhh... the free GPT 4.1 exposed to the VS Code LM API is the only reason I still pay for GitHub Copilot.
- hnuser123456 1y agoI think there are three factors to this: 1. What to code (longer, more specific prompts are better but take longer to write), and 2. How to code it (specify languages, libraries, APIs, etc.) And if you're trying to write code that uses a newer version of a library that works differently from what's most commonly documented, it's a long uphill battle of constantly reminding the LLM of the new changes. If you're not specific enough, it will definitely spit out a half-baked pseudocode file where it expects you to fill in the rest. If you don't specify certain libraries, it'll use whatever is featured in the most blogspam. And if you're in an ecosystem that isn't publicly well-documented, it's near useless.
- docmars 1y agoWith something like Devin, where it integrates directly with your repo and generates documentation based on your project(s), it's much more productive to use as an agent. I can delegate like 4-5 small tasks that would normally take me a full day or two (or three) of context switching and mental preparation, and knock them out in less than a day because it did 50-80% of the work, leaving only a few fixes or small pivot for me to wrap them up. This alone is where I get a lot of my value. Otherwise, I'm using Cursor to actively solve smaller problems in whatever files I'm currently focused on. Being able to refactor things with only a couple sentences is remarkably fast. The more you know about your language's features (and their precise names), and about higher-level programming patterns, the better time you'll have with LLMs, because it matches up with real documentation and examples with more precision.
- skinnymuch 1y agoIs work paying for Devin or you are? How pricey is it to delegate the task example you gave?
- docmars 1y agoWork is. I actually don't have access to our billing, so I couldn't tell you exactly, but it depends on how many ACUs (Agent Compute Units) you've used. We use a Team plan ($500 /mo), which includes 250 ACUs per month. Each bug or small task consumes anywhere between 1-3 ACUs, and fewer units are consumed if you're more precise with your prompt upfront. A larger prompt will usually use fewer ACUs because follow-up prompts cause Devin to run more checks to validate its work. Since it can run scripts, compilers, linters, etc. in its own VM -- all of that contributes to usage. It can also run E2E tests in a browser instance, and validate UI changes visually. They recommend most tasks should stay under 5 ACUs before it becomes inefficient. I've managed to give it some fairly complex tasks while staying under that threshold. So anywhere between $2-6 per task usually.
- spopejoy 1y ago> Being able to refactor things with only a couple sentences is remarkably fast. I'm curious, this is js/ts? Asking because depending on the lang, good old machine refactoring is either amazeballs (Java + IDE) or non-existent (Haskell). I'm not js/ts so I don't know what the state of machine refactoring is in VS code ... But if it's as good as Java then "a couple of sentences" is quite slow compared to a keystroke or a quick dialog box with completion of symbol names.
- platevoltage 1y ago>I'd expect it to work like a very junior programmer, but it works like a very drunk senior programmer that isn't listening to you very well at all. Best analogy I've ever heard and it's completely accurate. Now, back to work debugging and finishing a vibe coded application I'm being paid to work on.
- nudgeOrnurture 1y agocomplete coding noob here. if I want to throw a shuriken abiding to some artificial, magic Magnus force like in the movie wanted, both chatGpt and Claude let me down, using pygame. what if I wanted c-level performance or if I wanted to use zig? burp. It works like the average Microsoft employee, like some doped version of an orange wig wearer who gets votes because his daddys kept the population as dumb as it gets after the dotcom x Facebook era. in essence, the ones to be disappointed by are the Chan-Zuckerbergs of our time. there was a chance, but there also was what they were primed for
- mikepurvis 1y agoTwo other observations I've found working with ChatGPT and Copilot: First, until I can re-learn boundaries, they are a fiasco for work-life balance. It's way too easy to have a "hmm what if X" thought late at night or first thing in the morning, pop off a quick ticket from my phone, assign to Copilot, and then twenty minutes later I'm lying in bed reviewing a PR instead of having a shower, a proper breakfast, and fully entering into work headspace. And on a similar thread, Copilot's willingness to tolerate infinite bikeshedding and refactoring is a hazard for actually getting stuff merged. Unlike a human colleague who loses patience after a round or two of review, Copilot is happy to keep changing things up and endlessly iterating on minutiae. Copilot code reviews are exhausting to read through because it's just so much text, so much back and forth, every little change with big explanations, acknowledgments, replies, etc.
- astrange 1y agoI've found this with Claude Code too. It has nonstop energy (until you run out of tokens) and is always a little too eager to make random edits, which means it's somehow very tiring to use even though you're not doing anything. But it is the most productive intern I've ever pair programmed with. The real ones hallucinate about as often too.