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Countries across the world see food price shocks from climate extremes
- anonreeeeplor 1y ago[dead]
- gnarlouse 1y ago[flagged]
- noah_buddy 1y agoThis is basically a premise in Parable of the Sower.
- gnarlouse 1y agoI’m not sure how the working class arming itself with some type of M.A.D. to reign in the indiscriminate rapaciousness of the ruling class is comparable to the receptivity distribution to the wisdom of the Gospel, but I’m open to being enlightened
- willvarfar 1y agoThe UN previewed a report yesterday on food price rises 2020-24 https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165468 https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165468
- luckys 1y agoIn the little corner of Europe where I live food became more noticeably expensive with the Ukraine war. Not everything but a number of items. At one point, the price of olive oil was raised because vegetable oil had to be cheaper than olive oil!
- OfficeChad 1y agoOlive Groves were hit by Xylella fastidiosa.
- astahlx 1y agoEvidence? Olive oil got more expensive because of weather extremes https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20231218-why-olive-oil-prices-are-soaring-and-what-to-do-about-it https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20231218-why-olive-oil-pr... . Who sets the rule that one oil must be cheaper than the other? Which country? Which type of olive oil?
- luckys 1y agoPortugal. You would have to live here I guess. It was about 2 years ago and I don't have any sources to give you. Ask the locals if you know any. Olive oil may be more expensive in general now because of poor harvests but at the time local production had been good and there was no reason to raise the price. The rationale? I guess it was profit.
- mk89 1y agoThere was a huge spike in demand, due to the lack of cheaper alternatives. Sadly enough, the prices have stayed the same, although the demand has very likely normalized, now that people can buy "again" sunflower and other vegetable oil.
- graemep 1y ago> at the time local production had been good Ye,s but prices are not just local. In general these are world prices as it can easily be imported or exported. Even more so within the EU single market which IS your national market. On top of that its entirely normal for the prices of products that can substitute for each other to move together. If one oil goes up in price so will all the others. This is market forces acting as expected.
- hnhg 1y agoI feel across Europe at least companies are using data to optimise price by demand closely - large corporate suppliers almost definitely have the staff at hand to increase prices using data in the same way that "surge" pricing is calculated these days. They have every incentive to do so since they want to maximise profit.
- danielscrubs 1y agoIf you ask a metrologist you will get this answer. But from what I’ve heard from eu farmers are: Russian fertilisers and gas dependence have caused quite a blow to the market, it will need time to normalise. Not trying to downplay extreme weather though!
- boudin 1y agoThat's part of the equation for sure but extreme weather events have a massive impact where I live. Talking to producers, they are losing way more of their production way more frequently due to intense rain or dry events. As an exemple, someone who manages orchards was telling me that the norm now is to lose 1 year of harvest every 5 years when it was every 10 years 20 years ago. Talking with small scale organic veg growers who are less dependent on russian oil, managing weather events is the hardest part of their job. Currently, the soil is as dry as it usually is end of august where i am.
- worldsayshi 1y ago> the norm now is to lose 1 year of harvest every 5 years when it was every 10 years 20 years ago. That sounds apocalyptic given that these things have only just begun.
- bostik 1y ago> apocalyptic Bingo. Wars are already expanding, and the world is preparing for more. With food production suffering from climate change impacts, we are witnessing famine gaining ground in real time. The breed of politicians in power are doing their best to give pestilence a newfound hold on populace at large. And the fourth horseman is comfortably trotting in the wake of the other three.
- vidarh 1y agoIt's worth noting that while these dangers are real, they are largely economic, and so effectively a moral and political choice. Most production of most staple crops are higher than they have ever been, and still increasing most years. World bank data estimates for population growth is a 10% increase from 2020 to 2030, 26% from 2020 to 2050, and 42% between 2020 and 2100. OECD (FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030) estimates agricultural production to increase by 1.4% per year for the decade, which translates to ~15%. So agricultural output is increasing faster than the population at this point despite the climate challenges. But this increase itself creates risks (e.g. soil degradation, pressure on water supply) that is compounded by climate risks and creates variability on a regional level that absolutely will be a massive problem even though it could be "easily" protected against. The famine risk largely comes down to pushing food out of economic reach of poor countries at points where local crops fail, and the very same economic conditions makes those countries less likely to be able to afford to maintain sufficient emergency stores. Of course, that there's food elsewhere that is just too expensive will be of no comfort to those who end up starving.
- 111111IIIIIII 1y ago[dead]
- astahlx 1y agoI do not understand all the relativations here: If we crash the climate, we destroy the foundations for living on this planet, at least for most of us (billions). Sure, the current question is why we suddenly have none for weapons and even mightier AI while this would better be spend to get away from fossil fuels.
- AlecSchueler 1y agoWeapons and AI make more money in the short to medium term. We have no direction other than where the market guides us, even if that's towards death
- vixen99 1y agoInteresting that this is happening in concert with "a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning)." The paper suggests "CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. " https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3004 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3004
- octo888 1y agoMakes you wonder if these climate-driven food shocks would have happened if COVID/ZIRP ending hadn't ... Are there any comparable periods of weather extremes resulting in such widespread price hikes?
- 9rx 1y agoThere was a price shock following the 2013 derecho that ravaged the US breadbasket. But the 2020s shock was far more shocking because of the triple whammy. It started with the 2019 derecho again ravaging the US breadbasket much like in 2013, but continued with EU fertilizer plant shutdowns, soon followed by Russia attacking Ukraine — which also cut off access to Russian fertilizer and constrained access to Ukraine food production. COVID/ZIRP might have also played into it, but there isn't much to suggest it was a significant factor.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- daft_pink 1y agoIt’s just inflation to be honest.
- zer00eyz 1y agoThe fed pumps out tons of data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories What is particularly interesting is the spike in prices of beef. If climate extremes are causing food price shocks one would think that the beef price spike is caused by feed price shocks. Feed prices are down at 2019 levels. And most cattle farmers are bitching that their wholesale prices are down. The fed data here seems to be MOSTLY from the processors and only some of it (the data with lower prices) from the larger market. I dont doubt that there are shocks to the market, but it looks like there is a lot of gouging going on that is a hang over from the pandemic.
- disgruntledphd2 1y agoIt's energy plus food. Fertiliser is made from gas (generally) so there's a double hit. First feed prices go up, then fertiliser prices go up, then beef prices go up. We really (as a species) need to get off oil based stuff if we want to reduce inflation over the longer term (and for all the other climate based reasons too).
- zer00eyz 1y ago> First feed prices go up, No, thats not what the data says: Corn: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPS012202 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPS012202 Soy: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDM Both the major inputs to cattle feed are flat, and thats in the face of: Fertilizer is up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0652026A https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0652026A Gas (delivered, by pipe, and were burning this off still so no reason for the price to go up this high) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072620
- disgruntledphd2 1y agoYou're talking about the US experience, things were very different in Europe (where I'm from). The energy shock was much bigger over here. \ And even your corn link shows a 3.5x increase from 2020 to 2022, which, by definition will increase cattle prices, all other things being equal.
- seydor 1y agoolive oil price is back down now, but the biggest problem with it is expensive workers , as it is labor intensive, and despite the inflow of illegal immigrants to south europe.
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago>despite the inflow of illegal immigrants to south europe Why "despite"? How many people who move illegally to Europe want to go work hard labor on farms if they can have easier avenues of making money? From what I read in newspapers, most farm workers at least in DACH region tend to be Romanians, which are EU citizens, and in Scandinavia they tend to be Asians on legal work visas, basically all legal workers who wanted those jobs from the get go. So you can't fix the Europe's famously perpetual "muh (cheap) labor shortage" with open borders to illegals, if those people don't want those jobs to begin with. That's like leaving your house front door wide open, hoping that from all those people who walk in, someone might want to be your maid for cheap, and not just eat your food and walk out.
- dzink 1y agoCherries, Apricots, and Peaches produced no fruit this year in the Balkans (and possibly elsewhere in Europe), due to an early winter warm followed by a frost that destroyed all blooms. That will likely impact a lot of european canning and food producers.
- ndsipa_pomu 1y agoMeanwhile we're getting bumper cherry harvests in the UK https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cherries-tesco-uk-farmers-b2778070.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cherries-tes...
- PeterStuer 1y agoOver here yield is extremely variable. For fruit, last year was extremely poor due to a late (one night) freeze that killed of all the flowers and buds. This year, biggest bumper crop I have ever witnessed.
- 9rx 1y agoI started farming 15 years ago. It is mind boggling how much yields have jumped since I began. What was once cause for celebration is now considered failure. Some of that is attributable to improved technology, to be sure, but it mainly seems to be a result of climate change.
- vidarh 1y agoIndeed, I looked up OECD numbers, and the indicate primary crop outputs are on average expected to grow by 1.4% each year, outpacing population growth. A lot of what is causing concerns over famines etc., though, is that we're seeing dramatic variability that drives cost that is likely to see a lot of people priced out of access in bad years even as overall food production goes from height to height.
- soco 1y agoI assume the populations living on subsistence agriculture are also the ones much more exposed to these climate risks.
- 9rx 1y ago> is likely to see a lot of people priced out of access in bad years Especially as we move further and further away from there being international trade. The article indicates that potato crop losses is driving higher prices, but at the same time Canadian potato farmers, after a string of contract cancellations, are struggling to find anyone who wants their product and figure that they'll have to throw potatoes away.
- ManBeardPc 1y agoWe will see much more of this. Consequences of climate change start to really ramp up. We have been seeing temperature records year after year way beyond expectations. It’s coming fast and it is happening now, not just affecting our children and grandchildren. Recommend the „time is up“ talks from Mark Benecke (most are in German, subtitles and looking at the graphs should give you the gist though).
- LightBug1 1y agoYep, but don't forget to blame immigrants for causing these issues. That's really what's at the heart of this.
- ManBeardPc 1y agoOf course. And don’t look up. I’m always amazed at how good we humans are at denying reality.
- xyzal 1y agoAnd don't forget to drill, baby.
- jizzypants 1y ago[flagged]
- hamaspiker 1y ago[dead]
- vlckohoh 1y agoI wonder if more and more food production will shift to giant, climate-controlled greenhouses? Where I’m from we get fresh locally produced tomatoes and cucumbers in winter, although it’s freezing outside. It seems like an obvious band-aid if food prices rise enough to make it economical for more crops.
- ManBeardPc 1y agoLack of water and extreme weather events (hurricanes, landslides, strong floods, long droughts, heat, cold) will play a major role in the future. Locations/facilities that protect from these problems will be desired and fought for. War and crime probably will also be an issue, as such locations are sparse compared to how much we need to feed the world.
- owebmaster 1y agoI think importing from warm countries will continue to be economically better
- AlecSchueler 1y agoLook at the Netherlands as a counter point.
- brador 1y agoWe need to stop relying on the sun for our food security.
- southernplaces7 1y agoI'd be damn leery here of assigning such an explanation for global food prices to such an ambiguous connection, when plenty of interconnected geopolitical factors offer lots of causes of their own. Promoting good climate science isn't helped by shoehorning it as a cause for anything that most people don't like unless your evidence is damn good.