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One big barrier I haven't seen mentioned is all the OEM competition they are going to face. Caterpillar, John Deer, etc. already have remote operation vehicles

One big barrier I haven't seen mentioned is all the OEM competition they are going to face. Caterpillar, John Deer, etc. already have remote operation vehicles. And a lot of provisions on what types of kits can be retrofitted onto their equipment without violating their terms/warranties. I'm sure this is already something they've taken into consideration, but it seems like this will be more focused on partnerships with existing OEMs rather than selling add on kits to current fleets.

echelon 1y ago
> Caterpillar, John Deer, etc. already have remote operation vehicles. And a lot of provisions on what types of kits can be retrofitted onto their equipment without violating their terms/warranties. Sounds ripe for disruption, then. If a startup demonstrates promise, VC money will flood in. Then it's just a balancing of economics. Is the new VC-backed method cheaper? If so, the incumbents will lose market share relative to the value prop.
- beau_g 1y ago
  To the parent posters point though, those manufacturers are holding outsized control over what can be retrofit to their machines, so to disrupt them, you have to make your own machines. Working on and owning heavy equipment myself, I of course have looked at it and thought there's a lot to improve, but at the the same time, I don't really see where the big brain Silicon Valley + venture bucks ethos can be applied to the space, it would be a long and slow grind of doing mostly straightforward mechanical engineering and supply chain/vendor agreements to build something like a bulldozer, just to enter a near impenetrable market due to many existing sunk costs and long relationships between buyers and the existing manufacturers.
  - bluGill 1y ago
    The manufactures are aware of monopoly laws and will give you the 'key' to put your own thing on and even sell it - for a 'reasonable fee' which may be six figures and proff you will care about safety. Universities have got the key for student projects (under nda) disclosure: I work for jonh deere but am not speaking for the company. The above is all I feel I can say on the subject
  - Espressosaurus 1y ago
    Orrrrrr...venture capital money comes in and they sell for a loss until they achieve monopoly status and jack up the rates! Might be less successful now that money isn't free.
    - foobiekr 1y ago
      Venture hasn’t managed to make a dent in Nvidia despite massive investments. Maybe they aren’t as powerful as you think outside the comparatively trivial “build some software” markets. Hell even in networking, compute and storage there are only three or four real success stories in the last two and a half _decades_.
  - 93po 1y ago
    my understanding is that the barrier to entry in this space isnt manufacturing the equipment, but rather having a large dealer network for people to use for service and repairs. my impression is that people largely buy whatever has a nearby dealer for this reason. and these dealer connections are more and more important as they make it more and more impossible to work and maintain the equipment as an individual
- kevinmpeterson 1y ago
  CAT, Deere are both doing very interesting things with older autonomy techniques. Deere has acquired several companies, and partnered with others to bring in talent from outside. CAT has worked with outside companies (notably Trimble, Topcon) for key technologies when it makes a big difference. Both are awesome companies, but not AI/ML companies at the core and it'll take a lot of work for them to get there. I think this is very much like the self driving world 10 years ago where OEMs tried very hard to become software companies, but ultimately Cruise and Waymo were the ones that executed.
  - nickff 1y ago
    Neither Cruise nor Waymo seems to be profitable yet, and the jury is still out on whether they will win the market. They may be the MySpaces (or the Fiskers) of autonomous driving.
khurs 1y ago
The money raised is $80m rather than $800m which likely reflects all the challenges faced. It's the kinda startup that may be able to pivot easier than others.
CGMthrowaway 1y ago
>One big barrier I haven't seen mentioned is all the OEM competition they are going to face. Seems like that is a pro not a con. An exit scenario
- nickff 1y ago
  It’s only a pro if Bedrock has some sort of advantage that the existing companies don’t and can’t easily get. Without some sort of innovator’s dilemma-type situation, they’re likely to be crushed (into gravel).
  - CGMthrowaway 1y ago
    Aqui-hire. The modern-day labor union (get more for your skilled labor than you would otherwise)
    - whiplash451 1y ago
      Meh. Being acqui-hired by Caterpillar or John Deere can’t really be a dream of theirs. Plus the financial upside would be limited as these giants would tie it to tough long term milestones. Does not sound like a great deal.
_carbyau_ 1y ago
> One big barrier I haven't seen mentioned is all the OEM competition they are going to face. Not sure on this one. The company likely has it's own vision but I've thought for a while that a swarm of small electric rubber tracked earth moving vehicles (small enough to fit one or two in a tradies van?) could work longer hours due to being much quieter. For larger jobs you put a single person in a small tower on overwatch and run it 24 hours a day. This'd give you a somewhat scalable approach from small residential jobs to somewhat larger jobs while not competing against the incumbents directly and allowing you to work out the kinks. Then if it makes sense later, you build bigger machines with hopefully better battery technology. Ultimately though, for proper big jobs, you need proper big tools. Maybe a partnership or "exit strategy" works. Though maybe I've played too many RTS games like Supreme Commander...
defrost 1y ago
Equipment operators are lead by their largest clients, mining companies such as Rio Tinto for example. 24/7/365 large fleet operators that move a billion tonne of ore per annum and alter the spin balance of the planet by a detectable amount. Pages such as https://www.riotinto.com/en/mn/about/innovation/automation https://www.riotinto.com/en/mn/about/innovation/automation are out of date and don't do justice to the extant of and demand for grand scale semi autonomous mining and construction equipment. BBC coverage of one site and mining automation: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgej7gzg8l0o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgej7gzg8l0o There's a large yet to be built copper project in the US that has autonomus mining plans in the economic technical report. https://resolutioncopper.com/mining-method/ https://resolutioncopper.com/mining-method/ https://resolutioncopper.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RTRC-Constructing-Block-Caving-Poster-24x36-FINAL.pdf https://resolutioncopper.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RTRC... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolution_Copper#Reactions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolution_Copper#Reactions
threatripper 1y ago
If the missing ingredient is not some secret technology that only few of these old players have, they are probably too busy with their existing business. Management may invest many years developing some new key technology on the side but when it comes to actually taking the market, it's hard to focus on two areas at the same time.
amelius 1y ago
Do they have a large patent portfolio that might get into the way?

echelon 1y ago

> Caterpillar, John Deer, etc. already have remote operation vehicles. And a lot of provisions on what types of kits can be retrofitted onto their equipment without violating their terms/warranties. Sounds ripe for disruption, then. If a startup demonstrates promise, VC money will flood in. Then it's just a balancing of economics. Is the new VC-backed method cheaper? If so, the incumbents will lose market share relative to the value prop.

beau_g 1y ago
To the parent posters point though, those manufacturers are holding outsized control over what can be retrofit to their machines, so to disrupt them, you have to make your own machines. Working on and owning heavy equipment myself, I of course have looked at it and thought there's a lot to improve, but at the the same time, I don't really see where the big brain Silicon Valley + venture bucks ethos can be applied to the space, it would be a long and slow grind of doing mostly straightforward mechanical engineering and supply chain/vendor agreements to build something like a bulldozer, just to enter a near impenetrable market due to many existing sunk costs and long relationships between buyers and the existing manufacturers.
- bluGill 1y ago
  The manufactures are aware of monopoly laws and will give you the 'key' to put your own thing on and even sell it - for a 'reasonable fee' which may be six figures and proff you will care about safety. Universities have got the key for student projects (under nda) disclosure: I work for jonh deere but am not speaking for the company. The above is all I feel I can say on the subject
- Espressosaurus 1y ago
  Orrrrrr...venture capital money comes in and they sell for a loss until they achieve monopoly status and jack up the rates! Might be less successful now that money isn't free.
  - foobiekr 1y ago
    Venture hasn’t managed to make a dent in Nvidia despite massive investments. Maybe they aren’t as powerful as you think outside the comparatively trivial “build some software” markets. Hell even in networking, compute and storage there are only three or four real success stories in the last two and a half _decades_.
- 93po 1y ago
  my understanding is that the barrier to entry in this space isnt manufacturing the equipment, but rather having a large dealer network for people to use for service and repairs. my impression is that people largely buy whatever has a nearby dealer for this reason. and these dealer connections are more and more important as they make it more and more impossible to work and maintain the equipment as an individual
kevinmpeterson 1y ago
CAT, Deere are both doing very interesting things with older autonomy techniques. Deere has acquired several companies, and partnered with others to bring in talent from outside. CAT has worked with outside companies (notably Trimble, Topcon) for key technologies when it makes a big difference. Both are awesome companies, but not AI/ML companies at the core and it'll take a lot of work for them to get there. I think this is very much like the self driving world 10 years ago where OEMs tried very hard to become software companies, but ultimately Cruise and Waymo were the ones that executed.
- nickff 1y ago
  Neither Cruise nor Waymo seems to be profitable yet, and the jury is still out on whether they will win the market. They may be the MySpaces (or the Fiskers) of autonomous driving.

khurs 1y ago

The money raised is $80m rather than $800m which likely reflects all the challenges faced. It's the kinda startup that may be able to pivot easier than others.

CGMthrowaway 1y ago

>One big barrier I haven't seen mentioned is all the OEM competition they are going to face. Seems like that is a pro not a con. An exit scenario

nickff 1y ago
It’s only a pro if Bedrock has some sort of advantage that the existing companies don’t and can’t easily get. Without some sort of innovator’s dilemma-type situation, they’re likely to be crushed (into gravel).
- CGMthrowaway 1y ago
  Aqui-hire. The modern-day labor union (get more for your skilled labor than you would otherwise)
  - whiplash451 1y ago
    Meh. Being acqui-hired by Caterpillar or John Deere can’t really be a dream of theirs. Plus the financial upside would be limited as these giants would tie it to tough long term milestones. Does not sound like a great deal.

_carbyau_ 1y ago

> One big barrier I haven't seen mentioned is all the OEM competition they are going to face. Not sure on this one. The company likely has it's own vision but I've thought for a while that a swarm of small electric rubber tracked earth moving vehicles (small enough to fit one or two in a tradies van?) could work longer hours due to being much quieter. For larger jobs you put a single person in a small tower on overwatch and run it 24 hours a day. This'd give you a somewhat scalable approach from small residential jobs to somewhat larger jobs while not competing against the incumbents directly and allowing you to work out the kinks. Then if it makes sense later, you build bigger machines with hopefully better battery technology. Ultimately though, for proper big jobs, you need proper big tools. Maybe a partnership or "exit strategy" works. Though maybe I've played too many RTS games like Supreme Commander...

defrost 1y ago

Equipment operators are lead by their largest clients, mining companies such as Rio Tinto for example. 24/7/365 large fleet operators that move a billion tonne of ore per annum and alter the spin balance of the planet by a detectable amount. Pages such as https://www.riotinto.com/en/mn/about/innovation/automation https://www.riotinto.com/en/mn/about/innovation/automation are out of date and don't do justice to the extant of and demand for grand scale semi autonomous mining and construction equipment. BBC coverage of one site and mining automation: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgej7gzg8l0o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgej7gzg8l0o There's a large yet to be built copper project in the US that has autonomus mining plans in the economic technical report. https://resolutioncopper.com/mining-method/ https://resolutioncopper.com/mining-method/ https://resolutioncopper.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RTRC-Constructing-Block-Caving-Poster-24x36-FINAL.pdf https://resolutioncopper.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/RTRC... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolution_Copper#Reactions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolution_Copper#Reactions

threatripper 1y ago

If the missing ingredient is not some secret technology that only few of these old players have, they are probably too busy with their existing business. Management may invest many years developing some new key technology on the side but when it comes to actually taking the market, it's hard to focus on two areas at the same time.

amelius 1y ago

Do they have a large patent portfolio that might get into the way?