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We shouldn't arrive to conclusions on the future of warfare based on what we see in Ukraine. It works there the way it does only because neither side has a viab

We shouldn't arrive to conclusions on the future of warfare based on what we see in Ukraine. It works there the way it does only because neither side has a viable air force. If one of them had, it could win the war simply by theatre isolation and no drones could help. Manned aircraft are only things immune to drones because they fly higher and faster than cheap drones can. Thus, drone proliferation increases US dominance in future wars, because drones greatly diminish value of eveything else except manned aircraft - which is precisely the field in which US dominates by the highest margin of all. Especially funny was to observe how both sides stopped using tanks because their survivability - even that of "tracked garden shed" or "tortoise" varieties - is now nil. Where are the active protection systems pioneered by Soviet Union and propagandised all the way until today? Trajectory of an FVP is linear in the final second or so, and it is twice slower and a lot more fragile than an RPG round which was what active protection systems were supposed to protect from. Now suddenly, no one remembers of them anymore. Sounds like they were a scam all the way.

amelius 1y ago
> neither side has a viable air force. If one of them had, it could win the war simply by theatre isolation Ok, why isn't EU/NATO helping Ukraine with an airforce then?
- anovikov 1y ago
  Because with air force, critical asset is both people and planes. Just planes is not enough. You can't train pilots not having planes yes, but when you got planes, hard part starts, not ends. It will take many years to have prepared Ukrainian pilots to go into hostile airspace SEAD missions. No one except USAF can do it today. It requires very complex collaboration of many different assets in a manner that is incredibly lengthy and expensive to train for. This is why America leads in it: it has time, space, and cash. There's no way to shortcut it. This is also why Russia concentrates on ground-based SAMs and it's air force is shit: because training SAM operators is cheap and quick. They provide good defence. Ukraine has the same, for same reason. So they are stuck hitting each other with drones because none can do an air offensive.
  - amelius 1y ago
    This does not answer the question, though.
    - anovikov 1y ago
      In light of my answer, only way it can help is direct participation with their own units, not just supplying equipment. This is a line West is not ready to cross. Especially since it will only have considerable effect if Westnern planes with Western crews operate over internationally recognised Russian territory (over Ukraine-controlled territory Ukrainian air force dominates as it is, over occupied territory, there are few military significant assets). It means going from a proxy war to a real war.
      - amelius 1y ago
        > over occupied territory, there are few military significant assets Are you sure about that? I'd say that the war could be ended rather quickly if Russians were attacked the moment they set foot on Ukrainian land. Also, an air force could destroy supply lines going deep into Ukraine.
- corimaith 1y ago
  Because they are scared of Putin firing nukes. Also training an air force takes alot of time and money, only USA and China can really do it tbh.
  - amelius 1y ago
    > Because they are scared of Putin firing nukes. I think the only reason to be scared of Putin firing nukes is if he or the existence of Russia was threatened in some way. But he can stop this war any time he likes.
    - ExoticPearTree 1y ago
      And what a good strategy be like?
      - amelius 1y ago
        Making Putin understand that this war leads him nowhere, without going as far as threatening the existence of Russia. This means US/NATO planes above Ukraine are OK, but not above Russia.
        ExoticPearTree 1y ago
        And those planes should do what over Ukraine?
        amelius 1y ago
        Put simply, bomb enemy ground forces.
        ExoticPearTree 1y ago
        Aha, US/NATO jets bombing Russians. Sure, seems like a solid plan.
- oldpersonintx2 1y ago
  [dead]
- IAmBroom 1y ago
  Because of politics. This war has been nothing but a blessing to the West. Putin's forces and weapons have been very publicly tested (and failed expectations). His reserves are being drained; in some cases emptied. Western weapon systems are being field-tested, at the low-low cost of their purchase cost, plus shipping and handling. It took a while for me to realize that the West doesn't want Ukraine to win, outright. First, they want Ukraine to bleed Putin until he's too feeble to stand. That will take a while.
_1tem 1y ago
How would manned aircraft help defend against swarms of drones deployed by decentralized enemy units? Drones are manufactured out of people’s garages, you can’t just take out the source like you can take out an airfield. On the other hand, Ukraine disabled a significant number of Russia’s manned aircraft with surreptitiously deployed drones (Operation Spider Web).
- BobaFloutist 1y ago
  If we're talking US-level air-superiority and impunity from non-nuclear retribution, manned aircraft helps defend against swarms of drones by bombing the factories, the assembly plants, the receiving warehouses, or dropping a nerf-ball on the head-of-state's head and saying "stop it."
  - FpUser 1y ago
    Or those wonderful planes would be blown out of the sky by missiles.
    - BobaFloutist 1y ago
      Yeah that's fair. It's also I think too easy to imagine this as an RTS when real life has additional complications (for example, your attack jet can't hover indefinitely just outside of range of AA guns and wait for infantry to leave their protection). I expect air superiority still has uses and advantages, but I will admit to not being excessively knowledgeable about how war is best waged in 2025.
FpUser 1y ago
>"...Sounds like they were a scam all the way." If you are from US / EU you should urgently advise your government. They seem to lack this wisdom and have integrated this active protection into some of their tanks.

amelius 1y ago

> neither side has a viable air force. If one of them had, it could win the war simply by theatre isolation Ok, why isn't EU/NATO helping Ukraine with an airforce then?

anovikov 1y ago
Because with air force, critical asset is both people and planes. Just planes is not enough. You can't train pilots not having planes yes, but when you got planes, hard part starts, not ends. It will take many years to have prepared Ukrainian pilots to go into hostile airspace SEAD missions. No one except USAF can do it today. It requires very complex collaboration of many different assets in a manner that is incredibly lengthy and expensive to train for. This is why America leads in it: it has time, space, and cash. There's no way to shortcut it. This is also why Russia concentrates on ground-based SAMs and it's air force is shit: because training SAM operators is cheap and quick. They provide good defence. Ukraine has the same, for same reason. So they are stuck hitting each other with drones because none can do an air offensive.
- amelius 1y ago
  This does not answer the question, though.
  - anovikov 1y ago
    In light of my answer, only way it can help is direct participation with their own units, not just supplying equipment. This is a line West is not ready to cross. Especially since it will only have considerable effect if Westnern planes with Western crews operate over internationally recognised Russian territory (over Ukraine-controlled territory Ukrainian air force dominates as it is, over occupied territory, there are few military significant assets). It means going from a proxy war to a real war.
    - amelius 1y ago
      > over occupied territory, there are few military significant assets Are you sure about that? I'd say that the war could be ended rather quickly if Russians were attacked the moment they set foot on Ukrainian land. Also, an air force could destroy supply lines going deep into Ukraine.
corimaith 1y ago
Because they are scared of Putin firing nukes. Also training an air force takes alot of time and money, only USA and China can really do it tbh.
- amelius 1y ago
  > Because they are scared of Putin firing nukes. I think the only reason to be scared of Putin firing nukes is if he or the existence of Russia was threatened in some way. But he can stop this war any time he likes.
  - ExoticPearTree 1y ago
    And what a good strategy be like?
    - amelius 1y ago
      Making Putin understand that this war leads him nowhere, without going as far as threatening the existence of Russia. This means US/NATO planes above Ukraine are OK, but not above Russia.
      - ExoticPearTree 1y ago
        And those planes should do what over Ukraine?
        amelius 1y ago
        Put simply, bomb enemy ground forces.
        ExoticPearTree 1y ago
        Aha, US/NATO jets bombing Russians. Sure, seems like a solid plan.
oldpersonintx2 1y ago
[dead]
IAmBroom 1y ago
Because of politics. This war has been nothing but a blessing to the West. Putin's forces and weapons have been very publicly tested (and failed expectations). His reserves are being drained; in some cases emptied. Western weapon systems are being field-tested, at the low-low cost of their purchase cost, plus shipping and handling. It took a while for me to realize that the West doesn't want Ukraine to win, outright. First, they want Ukraine to bleed Putin until he's too feeble to stand. That will take a while.

_1tem 1y ago

How would manned aircraft help defend against swarms of drones deployed by decentralized enemy units? Drones are manufactured out of people’s garages, you can’t just take out the source like you can take out an airfield. On the other hand, Ukraine disabled a significant number of Russia’s manned aircraft with surreptitiously deployed drones (Operation Spider Web).

BobaFloutist 1y ago
If we're talking US-level air-superiority and impunity from non-nuclear retribution, manned aircraft helps defend against swarms of drones by bombing the factories, the assembly plants, the receiving warehouses, or dropping a nerf-ball on the head-of-state's head and saying "stop it."
- FpUser 1y ago
  Or those wonderful planes would be blown out of the sky by missiles.
  - BobaFloutist 1y ago
    Yeah that's fair. It's also I think too easy to imagine this as an RTS when real life has additional complications (for example, your attack jet can't hover indefinitely just outside of range of AA guns and wait for infantry to leave their protection). I expect air superiority still has uses and advantages, but I will admit to not being excessively knowledgeable about how war is best waged in 2025.

FpUser 1y ago

>"...Sounds like they were a scam all the way." If you are from US / EU you should urgently advise your government. They seem to lack this wisdom and have integrated this active protection into some of their tanks.