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My hobby: monetizing cynicism. I go on Polymarket and find things that would make me happy or optimistic about society and tech, and then bet a couple of dolla

by Y_Y 1y ago

My hobby: monetizing cynicism. I go on Polymarket and find things that would make me happy or optimistic about society and tech, and then bet a couple of dollars (of some shitcoin) against them. e.g. OpenAI releasing an open weights model before September is trading at 81% at time of writing - https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-an-open-source-model-before-september?tid=1752308786815 https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-an-open-sou... Last month I was up about ten bucks because OpenAI wasn't open, the ceasefire wasn't a ceasefire, and the climate metrics got worse. You can't hedge away all the existential despair, but you can take the sting out of it.

hereme888 1y ago
people still use crypto? I thought the hype died around the time when AI boomed.
- amelius 1y ago
  people use crypto for speculation, and for (semi)illegal purposes only a small percentage of use is for actual legitimate money transfers
- ben_w 1y ago
  Unfortunatley crypto hype is still high; and I think still on the up, but that's vibes not market analysis.
- unsupp0rted 1y ago
  Bitcoin is higher than ever. People can't wait until it gets high enough that they can sell it for dollars, and use those dollars to buy things and make investments in things that are valuable.
  - esperent 1y ago
    > Bitcoin is higher than ever That's just speculation though. I saw a cynical comment on reddit yesterday that unfortunately made a lot of sense. Many people now are just so certain that the future of work is not going to include many humans, so they're throwing everything into stocks and crypto, which is why they remain so high even in the face of so much political uncertainty. It's not that people are investing because they have hope. People are just betting everything as a last ditch survival attempt before the robots take over. Of course this is hyperbolic - market forces are never that simple. But I think there might be some truth to it.
    - dmd 1y ago
      What does 'just' mean here? The monetary value of a thing is what people will pay you for it. Full stop.
      - esperent 1y ago
        The question was about people using crypto to buy things. The person above me was implying that because it's going up in value, people are using it that way. I replied to say that it's (mostly) just speculation. Which is a kind of use, but not the one being implied.
    - nl 1y ago
      Wait until you hear about this thing called gold and how its price behaves during periods of uncertainty.
      - esperent 1y ago
        Gold (and land, jewels, antiques etc.) are bought and held during times of uncertainty because people believe they will retain their value through virtually anything. Stocks don't work that way. In times of uncertainty, gold should increase in value, stocks should decrease.
    - matthewdgreen 1y ago
      The irony is that these people think their rights as shareholders will be respected in this future world.
      - literalAardvark 1y ago
        It's a bit like when peasants had to sell their land for cash and ended up enslaved working their own land. It'll work at first but it's just what the parent poster said: a last ditch effort of the desperate and soon to be desperater.
    - deadbabe 1y ago
      Crypto is high because people keep believing some sucker in the future will buy it from them even higher. So far, they've been right all along. You really think crypto is ever going to pay some kind of dividend?
- yorwba 1y ago
  People use crypto on Polymarket because it doesn't comply with gambling regulations, so in theory isn't allowed to have US customers. Using crypto as an intermediary lets Polymarket pretend not to know where the money is coming from. Though I think a more robust regulator would call them out on the large volume of betting on US politics on their platform...
  - miki123211 1y ago
    > a more robust regulator would call them out Calling them out is one thing, but do you think the US could realistically stop them? I don't know much about Polymarkets governance structure, if it's a decentralized smart contract, the US is DOA. Even if it's not... the Pirate Bay wasn't, the US really tried to stop them, and they basically didn't get anywhere.
    - yorwba 1y ago
      Looking it up, it seems like the CEO actually got raided by the FBI last year: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-home-seizing-phone-electronics-ny-post-reports-2024-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-h... So maybe the wheels of justice are just grinding a bit slowly. The terms of use want to have Panamanian law apply https://polymarket.com/tos https://polymarket.com/tos but that doesn't provide much protection when the company is physically operating in the US.
heeton 1y ago
My friend does this and calls it “hedging humanity”. Every time some big political event has happened that bums me out, he’s made a few hundred.
khurs 1y ago
"Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. You must be 18 years or older to gamble. If you need help, please contact your local gambling advice group or your doctor"
xnx 1y ago
> go on Polymarket and find things that would make me happy or optimistic about society and tech, and then bet a couple of dollars (of some shitcoin) against them. Classic win win bet. Your bet wins -> you make money (win). Your bet loses -> something good happened for society (win).
- nwienert 1y ago
  Classic lose lose too

by Y_Y 1y ago

hereme888 1y ago

people still use crypto? I thought the hype died around the time when AI boomed.

amelius 1y ago
people use crypto for speculation, and for (semi)illegal purposes only a small percentage of use is for actual legitimate money transfers
ben_w 1y ago
Unfortunatley crypto hype is still high; and I think still on the up, but that's vibes not market analysis.
unsupp0rted 1y ago
Bitcoin is higher than ever. People can't wait until it gets high enough that they can sell it for dollars, and use those dollars to buy things and make investments in things that are valuable.
- esperent 1y ago
  > Bitcoin is higher than ever That's just speculation though. I saw a cynical comment on reddit yesterday that unfortunately made a lot of sense. Many people now are just so certain that the future of work is not going to include many humans, so they're throwing everything into stocks and crypto, which is why they remain so high even in the face of so much political uncertainty. It's not that people are investing because they have hope. People are just betting everything as a last ditch survival attempt before the robots take over. Of course this is hyperbolic - market forces are never that simple. But I think there might be some truth to it.
  - dmd 1y ago
    What does 'just' mean here? The monetary value of a thing is what people will pay you for it. Full stop.
    - esperent 1y ago
      The question was about people using crypto to buy things. The person above me was implying that because it's going up in value, people are using it that way. I replied to say that it's (mostly) just speculation. Which is a kind of use, but not the one being implied.
  - nl 1y ago
    Wait until you hear about this thing called gold and how its price behaves during periods of uncertainty.
    - esperent 1y ago
      Gold (and land, jewels, antiques etc.) are bought and held during times of uncertainty because people believe they will retain their value through virtually anything. Stocks don't work that way. In times of uncertainty, gold should increase in value, stocks should decrease.
  - matthewdgreen 1y ago
    The irony is that these people think their rights as shareholders will be respected in this future world.
    - literalAardvark 1y ago
      It's a bit like when peasants had to sell their land for cash and ended up enslaved working their own land. It'll work at first but it's just what the parent poster said: a last ditch effort of the desperate and soon to be desperater.
  - deadbabe 1y ago
    Crypto is high because people keep believing some sucker in the future will buy it from them even higher. So far, they've been right all along. You really think crypto is ever going to pay some kind of dividend?
yorwba 1y ago
People use crypto on Polymarket because it doesn't comply with gambling regulations, so in theory isn't allowed to have US customers. Using crypto as an intermediary lets Polymarket pretend not to know where the money is coming from. Though I think a more robust regulator would call them out on the large volume of betting on US politics on their platform...
- miki123211 1y ago
  > a more robust regulator would call them out Calling them out is one thing, but do you think the US could realistically stop them? I don't know much about Polymarkets governance structure, if it's a decentralized smart contract, the US is DOA. Even if it's not... the Pirate Bay wasn't, the US really tried to stop them, and they basically didn't get anywhere.
  - yorwba 1y ago
    Looking it up, it seems like the CEO actually got raided by the FBI last year: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-home-seizing-phone-electronics-ny-post-reports-2024-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-h... So maybe the wheels of justice are just grinding a bit slowly. The terms of use want to have Panamanian law apply https://polymarket.com/tos https://polymarket.com/tos but that doesn't provide much protection when the company is physically operating in the US.

heeton 1y ago

My friend does this and calls it “hedging humanity”. Every time some big political event has happened that bums me out, he’s made a few hundred.

khurs 1y ago

"Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. You must be 18 years or older to gamble. If you need help, please contact your local gambling advice group or your doctor"

xnx 1y ago

> go on Polymarket and find things that would make me happy or optimistic about society and tech, and then bet a couple of dollars (of some shitcoin) against them. Classic win win bet. Your bet wins -> you make money (win). Your bet loses -> something good happened for society (win).

nwienert 1y ago
Classic lose lose too