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> Instead of relying on scattered deposits of fossil fuel—the control of which has largely defined geopolitics for more than a century—we are moving rapidly tow

> Instead of relying on scattered deposits of fossil fuel—the control of which has largely defined geopolitics for more than a century—we are moving rapidly toward a reliance on diffuse but ubiquitous sources of supply. The sun and the wind are available everywhere I’m all for solar - but does it really solve the geographical / geopolitical issues of oil, as it’s currently rolling out? China produces pretty much all the solar panels - That’s quite a big concentration of power, even more so than oil.

bhaak 1y ago
Solar panels can be locally recycled. Oil cannot. Of course if you don't build up a local solar industry you are still dependent on foreign countries but it's not that China has an unchanging monopoly on the solar industry.
- nradov 1y ago
  Solar panel recycling has never really been done at scale. And a country would need fairly advanced manufacturing capabilities first before they could conduct that recycling.
  - adrianN 1y ago
    Are old solar panels available at scale? They last for decades.
    - lnsru 1y ago
      First 15-20 years old Siemens panels come off the roofs right now in Germany. Still having 2/3 of the rated power generation capability. Absolutely fascinating thing. And since they cost more or less nothing it would make absolutely sense to install them in some lower cost of living area in southern Europe. I can get the panels in Germany, who wants to take over the southern Europe part?
      - hnaccount_rng 1y ago
        They are also old technology and only about half as efficient as current ones. So even if you restore them to full nameplate capacity for free they are still wasted to put anywhere as long as the installation price is dominated by labor costs. The _only_ scenario in which this might be worth it is if there are no new solar cells available
      - marcosdumay 1y ago
        Yep. Those will still not be available for recycling.
pshirshov 1y ago
> China produces pretty much all the solar panels Why didn't other countries build up solar industries? Were busy with fossils? Were too greedy to subsidise?
- netsharc 1y ago
  Man, Paul Krugman (here's a trigger for people who know they know better than him to respond that he's a hack!) was writing about the US giving up lead of solar tech to China back during the G. W. Bush admin... (which makes me feel old as hell)
  - mrspuratic 1y ago
    In 1979 Jimmy Carter installed solar (thermal) panels on the White House roof as part of his fairly progressive environmental and fuel efficiency policies. Now I feel old :/ And also angry that it's been 40 years and electricity generation is still >50% fossil fuels, never mind world energy use overall.
    - tstrimple 1y ago
      And Reagan tore them down. If you want to look at why we as a country suck at green energy, you don't have to look further than the Republican party behavior over the decades. The party explicitly responsible for why we can't have any number of Good Things.
      - mrspuratic 1y ago
        Yes, but maybe not "tore" since they got reused elsewhere. Solar was (quietly) reinstated by GW, but not on the Whitehouse itself until Obama, I think. https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/object/nmah_1356218 https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/object/nmah_13562... I don't get the two party system where there's such acrimony involved in trashing and undoing anything accomplished by the opposition .
- buckle8017 1y ago
kragen 1y ago
I’m all for solar - but does it really solve the geographical / geopolitical issues of oil, as it’s currently rolling out? Yes, because if the US blockades you so you can't import oil, your trucks and power plants stop running in six weeks. If the US blockades you so you can't import Chinese solar panels, your power grid stops running in 20 years. Actually, that's just the end of the warranty period, so more like 30. Or 40. The US is gonna have to keep up that blockade for a long time before it starts causing you any pain. Probably after the President For Life dies.
- roenxi 1y ago
  Not to mention that 20 years is enough time to develop a native industry of solar panel manufacturers. The issue with oil is it requires a constant flow of resources from specific locations in the world that are blessed by geography. Solar power has much less of that going on.
  - kragen 1y ago
    It's possible, but you may have noticed that out of the ≈200 countries in the world, over the last 20 years, about 180 of them have completely failed to develop a native industry of solar panel manufacturers, and about 100 of them have completely failed to develop a native industry of anything, continuing their agrarian and resource-extraction economies more or less as they have been for centuries, just with imported Chinese cellphones. People in those countries often blame the rich countries for keeping them down, for example by selling them goods at lower prices than their domestic production of those goods, and they're not completely wrong, but in many cases the dynamics preventing them from escaping that equilibrium are mostly internal. Hypothetically, yes, such a blockaded country could develop a native industry of solar panel manufacturers in 20 years, and that industry would have an easier time traveling up the learning curve on the domestic market without having to match the prices of the Chinese hyperscalers. But in about 90% of cases they would fail to do so, for the same reasons the US still doesn't have any high-speed trains 60 years after the Shinkansen entered service and still doesn't have a moon base 56 years after Neil Armstrong.
    - 1y ago
ZeroGravitas 1y ago
At the very least it has solved it for China, and that is one key driving force of their moves in this area. Whether that makes a global conflict more or less likely is an interesting question.
usrusr 1y ago
> China produces pretty much all the solar panels - That’s quite a big concentration of power, even more so than oil. But that very much isn't a consequence of geology. Ramping up panel production is much easier than discovering oil deposits when there aren't any to discover.
adrianN 1y ago
Solar panels are not that hard to produce. China just does it cheaper than other countries. Any industrialized country can easily set up the necessary infrastructure if they choose to do so for strategic reasons.
- jonplackett 1y ago
  They’re not hard to produce but they are hard to produce really cheap as in as cheap as China. For lots of reasons (state aid being one, extreme competition being another). It’s hard in a capitalist country to do things that don’t make business sense - eg long term thinking. So I don’t see any reasonable route where China isn’t still making all the panels any time soon.
  - adrianN 1y ago
    As long as China keeps making the panels and selling them for cheap there is no problem at all with that. When they decide to stop doing that other countries can pick up after a short ramp up time, for a little more money.
myself248 1y ago
The US used to produce tons of solar panels, and LiFePO4 batteries too, but we let those industries fail. (I've been to quite a few plant auctions. It's sad, picking through the bones of random tools and support equipment, but nobody's bidding on the big crown-jewel machines because they had one purpose and that simply doesn't work in our market anymore.) There are still a few solar panel plants in the US, but nothing like we had.

bhaak 1y ago

Solar panels can be locally recycled. Oil cannot. Of course if you don't build up a local solar industry you are still dependent on foreign countries but it's not that China has an unchanging monopoly on the solar industry.

nradov 1y ago
Solar panel recycling has never really been done at scale. And a country would need fairly advanced manufacturing capabilities first before they could conduct that recycling.
- adrianN 1y ago
  Are old solar panels available at scale? They last for decades.
  - lnsru 1y ago
    First 15-20 years old Siemens panels come off the roofs right now in Germany. Still having 2/3 of the rated power generation capability. Absolutely fascinating thing. And since they cost more or less nothing it would make absolutely sense to install them in some lower cost of living area in southern Europe. I can get the panels in Germany, who wants to take over the southern Europe part?
    - hnaccount_rng 1y ago
      They are also old technology and only about half as efficient as current ones. So even if you restore them to full nameplate capacity for free they are still wasted to put anywhere as long as the installation price is dominated by labor costs. The _only_ scenario in which this might be worth it is if there are no new solar cells available
    - marcosdumay 1y ago
      Yep. Those will still not be available for recycling.

pshirshov 1y ago

> China produces pretty much all the solar panels Why didn't other countries build up solar industries? Were busy with fossils? Were too greedy to subsidise?

netsharc 1y ago
Man, Paul Krugman (here's a trigger for people who know they know better than him to respond that he's a hack!) was writing about the US giving up lead of solar tech to China back during the G. W. Bush admin... (which makes me feel old as hell)
- mrspuratic 1y ago
  In 1979 Jimmy Carter installed solar (thermal) panels on the White House roof as part of his fairly progressive environmental and fuel efficiency policies. Now I feel old :/ And also angry that it's been 40 years and electricity generation is still >50% fossil fuels, never mind world energy use overall.
  - tstrimple 1y ago
    And Reagan tore them down. If you want to look at why we as a country suck at green energy, you don't have to look further than the Republican party behavior over the decades. The party explicitly responsible for why we can't have any number of Good Things.
    - mrspuratic 1y ago
      Yes, but maybe not "tore" since they got reused elsewhere. Solar was (quietly) reinstated by GW, but not on the Whitehouse itself until Obama, I think. https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/object/nmah_1356218 https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/object/nmah_13562... I don't get the two party system where there's such acrimony involved in trashing and undoing anything accomplished by the opposition .
buckle8017 1y ago

kragen 1y ago

I’m all for solar - but does it really solve the geographical / geopolitical issues of oil, as it’s currently rolling out? Yes, because if the US blockades you so you can't import oil, your trucks and power plants stop running in six weeks. If the US blockades you so you can't import Chinese solar panels, your power grid stops running in 20 years. Actually, that's just the end of the warranty period, so more like 30. Or 40. The US is gonna have to keep up that blockade for a long time before it starts causing you any pain. Probably after the President For Life dies.

roenxi 1y ago
Not to mention that 20 years is enough time to develop a native industry of solar panel manufacturers. The issue with oil is it requires a constant flow of resources from specific locations in the world that are blessed by geography. Solar power has much less of that going on.
- kragen 1y ago
  It's possible, but you may have noticed that out of the ≈200 countries in the world, over the last 20 years, about 180 of them have completely failed to develop a native industry of solar panel manufacturers, and about 100 of them have completely failed to develop a native industry of anything, continuing their agrarian and resource-extraction economies more or less as they have been for centuries, just with imported Chinese cellphones. People in those countries often blame the rich countries for keeping them down, for example by selling them goods at lower prices than their domestic production of those goods, and they're not completely wrong, but in many cases the dynamics preventing them from escaping that equilibrium are mostly internal. Hypothetically, yes, such a blockaded country could develop a native industry of solar panel manufacturers in 20 years, and that industry would have an easier time traveling up the learning curve on the domestic market without having to match the prices of the Chinese hyperscalers. But in about 90% of cases they would fail to do so, for the same reasons the US still doesn't have any high-speed trains 60 years after the Shinkansen entered service and still doesn't have a moon base 56 years after Neil Armstrong.
  - 1y ago

ZeroGravitas 1y ago

At the very least it has solved it for China, and that is one key driving force of their moves in this area. Whether that makes a global conflict more or less likely is an interesting question.

usrusr 1y ago

> China produces pretty much all the solar panels - That’s quite a big concentration of power, even more so than oil. But that very much isn't a consequence of geology. Ramping up panel production is much easier than discovering oil deposits when there aren't any to discover.

adrianN 1y ago

Solar panels are not that hard to produce. China just does it cheaper than other countries. Any industrialized country can easily set up the necessary infrastructure if they choose to do so for strategic reasons.

jonplackett 1y ago
They’re not hard to produce but they are hard to produce really cheap as in as cheap as China. For lots of reasons (state aid being one, extreme competition being another). It’s hard in a capitalist country to do things that don’t make business sense - eg long term thinking. So I don’t see any reasonable route where China isn’t still making all the panels any time soon.
- adrianN 1y ago
  As long as China keeps making the panels and selling them for cheap there is no problem at all with that. When they decide to stop doing that other countries can pick up after a short ramp up time, for a little more money.

myself248 1y ago

The US used to produce tons of solar panels, and LiFePO4 batteries too, but we let those industries fail. (I've been to quite a few plant auctions. It's sad, picking through the bones of random tools and support equipment, but nobody's bidding on the big crown-jewel machines because they had one purpose and that simply doesn't work in our market anymore.) There are still a few solar panel plants in the US, but nothing like we had.