5 ms·

This is a rational take, which is why it is wrong. I agree that we're not about to be all replaced with AGI, that there is still a need for junior eng, and wit

This is a rational take, which is why it is wrong. I agree that we're not about to be all replaced with AGI, that there is still a need for junior eng, and with several of these points. None of those arguments matter if the C suite doesn't care and keeps doing crazy layoffs so they can buy more GPUs, and intelligence and rationality are way less common than following the cargo cult among that group.

simonw 1y ago
The C suite may make some dumb short-term mistakes - just like twenty years ago when they tried to outsource all software development to cheaper countries - but they'll either course-correct when they spot those mistakes or will be out-competed by other, smarter companies.
- reactordev 1y ago
  The market will always respond. When it happened before, younger - smarter - more efficient competitors emerged.
  - ringeryless 1y ago
    this. i mean, look at xerox or big blue
- jimbob45 1y ago
  HR can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - shikon7 1y ago
    Until someone makes the idea fashionable to replace HR with AI.
    - owebmaster 1y ago
      Then it will be forever irrational.
  - pseudocomposer 1y ago
    HR isn’t irrational; you’re just making the mistake of thinking their role is to serve you, the employee, as opposed to the C-suite and shareholders.
- fakedang 1y ago
  Except it makes sense in a lot of recent off-shoring cases. While there are still your usual stupid companies outsourcing to Indian WITCH, a lot of midsize companies are also doing alright with nearshoring to either LatAm or even just out of SF/Seattle/NY (in the case of US companies), and Eastern Europe (in the case of EU companies). Even in biotech for instance, preliminary research has been successfully outsourced to either academia or to Indian and Chinese CROs. The latter have done exceptionally well, even innovating new products on their own and licensing them to the US market. The myth of onsite worker efficiency was practically shattered with Covid. Where the Western worker can really only shine is in advancing on the tech forefront and helping keep that tech within Western borders. Stuff like defence or cybersecurity or some advanced new product/tool development. Anything else is free to be arbitraged away.
  - simonh 1y ago
    It's getting there, slowly, because a lot of the initial bootstrapping problems have been worked through. Lets say there are 1,000 decent engineers in a country and they get hired by various western companies and it's all a great success. They're very happy, obviously offshoring there works well, other companies pile in and hire 10,000 engineers. Ok, are there another 10,000 decent engineers in the country? Probably not, but maybe you can poach some of the 1,000 and use them to train up the other 10,000. But soon there are openings for 100,000 offshored jobs, then 500,000. How many well trained engineers are there again? That ramp up takes time, and it's not just a matter of smart people, it's relevant experience. If you have two countries with the same number of competent trained people, but in one of them 5% have directly relevant experience, and in the other 50% of them do, that's a massive advantage that cannot even be solved with money. Then there's the fact the the most talented and experienced people move out of the country. So for every 10 engineers that get to top tier, 3-4 of them move to Europe or the US. So, not only are these countries losing those people, but also they're losing out on all the juniors they could lead and train up. Hiring there is like trying to fill a leaky bucket. None of which is to say this is impossible, or that it isn't worth doing, or that it won't work. I've seen it work, and the company I'm at now has reaped huge benefits from offshoring. You just need to go into it clear eyed and with the understanding that it has to work for the people you're offshoring to, and that country as well, and you need to be adaptable as the situation changes.
- cardanome 1y ago
  That assumes a free and efficient market. Good luck with that. The big tech monopolists can literally buy off any emerging competition. They have massive political influence that they can leverage to shape the market based on their needs. Not that there would be any political appetite to challenge national "champions" in times of rising international tension anyway. They are too big to fail.
  - ringeryless 1y ago
    until they aren't. don't discount the possibility of a total rout for those who put all eggs in such a shoddy basket. interesting to note the limits of political influence now that the megabill stripped the ai moratorium nonsense. i suspect that the brick and mortar politicos are a bit like "thanks for the money, now bugg off, kid, before i beat you up" it will be interesting to see what sort of revenge the worlds richest man is cooking for his uppity fixer dude.
- marcosdumay 1y ago
  Or, if a government tries to protect them, the entire country will be outcompeted in an ugly, bloody process that can take the best part of a century and leave millions of people behind. Yes, markets work. But people insist on ignoring attrition against all the evidence. It's an almost religious belief.
- dyauspitr 1y ago
  They’re still doing that. All the tens are of thousands of layoffs you’re hearing about are still going to India.
paulddraper 1y ago
Well that’s the nice thing about capitalism. If it doesn’t work, it eventually dies.
- Arainach 1y ago
  And the not nice thing about capitalism is that it can keep not working longer than most of us can pay for rent and food.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- zombot 1y ago
  The belief in a rational market approaches religion.
  - rightbyte 1y ago
    The dissolving of the Soviet Union gave the neoliberals hubris or something and as they dwindle the ones left seem to get crazier.
  - paulddraper 1y ago
    Some might even say social science
    - zombot 1y ago
      A "discipline" where you can say just about anything because there's no way to prove or disprove it.
- guappa 1y ago
  Capitalism failed in 1929 but its corpse is still here…
  - zombot 1y ago
    Depends on who you ask. Today's billionaires would disagree.
lloeki 1y ago
It's not just the C-suite. I keep seeing and talking to people that are completely high guzzling Kool-Aid straight from a pressure tap. The level of confirmation bias is absolutely unhinged "I told $AGENTICFOOLLM to do that and WOW this PR is 90% AI!", _ignoring any previous failed attempt_, nor the 10% of humanness needed for the change of what ultimately is a 10 line diff and handwaving any counterpoint away as "you're holding it wrong". I'm essentially seeing two groups emerging: those all aboard the high velocity hype train and those that are curious about the technology but absolutely appalled about the former's irrational attitude which is tantamount to completely winging it diving head first off of a cliff deeply convinced that of course the tide will rise at just the right time for skulls not to be cracked open upon collision with very big sharp rocks.
- zombot 1y ago
  I bet there are also a good number of paid shills among those. If you look at how much money goes into the tech it's not too far-fetched to invest a tiny fraction of that in human "agents" to push the narrative. The endless repetition will produce some believers, even if the story is a complete lie.
  - guappa 1y ago
    Not necessarily paid shills, but it's a good way to get a promotions, and then when it will be revealed that it doesn't actually work, they got the promotion already and will jump on the next hype to get the next promotion.
  - globalnode 1y ago
    don't forget the useful idiots.
    - bluefirebrand 1y ago
      In tech we seem to have a tendency to believe people are rational and behave predictably, but the truth is there are still truly just a ton of useful idiots even in software and other "high intelligence" areas
DanielHB 1y ago
it takes years, if not decades, but that kind of attitude eventually leads to IBM.
bayareapsycho 1y ago
> and keeps doing crazy layoffs so they can buy more GPUs They're doing layoffs and giving a wall street friendly reason for it The media eats the shit up because it's run by a bunch of people who hate the tech industry I guess it'll work until the market turns around and it forces them to shut up or bleed talent. Which could be around the corner since the R&D tax deduction is coming back, or if interest rates start dropping
deterministic 1y ago
I am not worried at all. The C suite will very quickly find out that developers are still needed. And you can then negotiate a better pay + bonus to return.

simonw 1y ago

The C suite may make some dumb short-term mistakes - just like twenty years ago when they tried to outsource all software development to cheaper countries - but they'll either course-correct when they spot those mistakes or will be out-competed by other, smarter companies.

reactordev 1y ago
The market will always respond. When it happened before, younger - smarter - more efficient competitors emerged.
- ringeryless 1y ago
  this. i mean, look at xerox or big blue
jimbob45 1y ago
HR can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- shikon7 1y ago
  Until someone makes the idea fashionable to replace HR with AI.
  - owebmaster 1y ago
    Then it will be forever irrational.
- pseudocomposer 1y ago
  HR isn’t irrational; you’re just making the mistake of thinking their role is to serve you, the employee, as opposed to the C-suite and shareholders.
fakedang 1y ago
Except it makes sense in a lot of recent off-shoring cases. While there are still your usual stupid companies outsourcing to Indian WITCH, a lot of midsize companies are also doing alright with nearshoring to either LatAm or even just out of SF/Seattle/NY (in the case of US companies), and Eastern Europe (in the case of EU companies). Even in biotech for instance, preliminary research has been successfully outsourced to either academia or to Indian and Chinese CROs. The latter have done exceptionally well, even innovating new products on their own and licensing them to the US market. The myth of onsite worker efficiency was practically shattered with Covid. Where the Western worker can really only shine is in advancing on the tech forefront and helping keep that tech within Western borders. Stuff like defence or cybersecurity or some advanced new product/tool development. Anything else is free to be arbitraged away.
- simonh 1y ago
  It's getting there, slowly, because a lot of the initial bootstrapping problems have been worked through. Lets say there are 1,000 decent engineers in a country and they get hired by various western companies and it's all a great success. They're very happy, obviously offshoring there works well, other companies pile in and hire 10,000 engineers. Ok, are there another 10,000 decent engineers in the country? Probably not, but maybe you can poach some of the 1,000 and use them to train up the other 10,000. But soon there are openings for 100,000 offshored jobs, then 500,000. How many well trained engineers are there again? That ramp up takes time, and it's not just a matter of smart people, it's relevant experience. If you have two countries with the same number of competent trained people, but in one of them 5% have directly relevant experience, and in the other 50% of them do, that's a massive advantage that cannot even be solved with money. Then there's the fact the the most talented and experienced people move out of the country. So for every 10 engineers that get to top tier, 3-4 of them move to Europe or the US. So, not only are these countries losing those people, but also they're losing out on all the juniors they could lead and train up. Hiring there is like trying to fill a leaky bucket. None of which is to say this is impossible, or that it isn't worth doing, or that it won't work. I've seen it work, and the company I'm at now has reaped huge benefits from offshoring. You just need to go into it clear eyed and with the understanding that it has to work for the people you're offshoring to, and that country as well, and you need to be adaptable as the situation changes.
cardanome 1y ago
That assumes a free and efficient market. Good luck with that. The big tech monopolists can literally buy off any emerging competition. They have massive political influence that they can leverage to shape the market based on their needs. Not that there would be any political appetite to challenge national "champions" in times of rising international tension anyway. They are too big to fail.
- ringeryless 1y ago
  until they aren't. don't discount the possibility of a total rout for those who put all eggs in such a shoddy basket. interesting to note the limits of political influence now that the megabill stripped the ai moratorium nonsense. i suspect that the brick and mortar politicos are a bit like "thanks for the money, now bugg off, kid, before i beat you up" it will be interesting to see what sort of revenge the worlds richest man is cooking for his uppity fixer dude.
marcosdumay 1y ago
Or, if a government tries to protect them, the entire country will be outcompeted in an ugly, bloody process that can take the best part of a century and leave millions of people behind. Yes, markets work. But people insist on ignoring attrition against all the evidence. It's an almost religious belief.
dyauspitr 1y ago
They’re still doing that. All the tens are of thousands of layoffs you’re hearing about are still going to India.

paulddraper 1y ago

Well that’s the nice thing about capitalism. If it doesn’t work, it eventually dies.

Arainach 1y ago
And the not nice thing about capitalism is that it can keep not working longer than most of us can pay for rent and food.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
zombot 1y ago
The belief in a rational market approaches religion.
- rightbyte 1y ago
  The dissolving of the Soviet Union gave the neoliberals hubris or something and as they dwindle the ones left seem to get crazier.
- paulddraper 1y ago
  Some might even say social science
  - zombot 1y ago
    A "discipline" where you can say just about anything because there's no way to prove or disprove it.
guappa 1y ago
Capitalism failed in 1929 but its corpse is still here…
- zombot 1y ago
  Depends on who you ask. Today's billionaires would disagree.

lloeki 1y ago

It's not just the C-suite. I keep seeing and talking to people that are completely high guzzling Kool-Aid straight from a pressure tap. The level of confirmation bias is absolutely unhinged "I told $AGENTICFOOLLM to do that and WOW this PR is 90% AI!", _ignoring any previous failed attempt_, nor the 10% of humanness needed for the change of what ultimately is a 10 line diff and handwaving any counterpoint away as "you're holding it wrong". I'm essentially seeing two groups emerging: those all aboard the high velocity hype train and those that are curious about the technology but absolutely appalled about the former's irrational attitude which is tantamount to completely winging it diving head first off of a cliff deeply convinced that of course the tide will rise at just the right time for skulls not to be cracked open upon collision with very big sharp rocks.

zombot 1y ago
I bet there are also a good number of paid shills among those. If you look at how much money goes into the tech it's not too far-fetched to invest a tiny fraction of that in human "agents" to push the narrative. The endless repetition will produce some believers, even if the story is a complete lie.
- guappa 1y ago
  Not necessarily paid shills, but it's a good way to get a promotions, and then when it will be revealed that it doesn't actually work, they got the promotion already and will jump on the next hype to get the next promotion.
- globalnode 1y ago
  don't forget the useful idiots.
  - bluefirebrand 1y ago
    In tech we seem to have a tendency to believe people are rational and behave predictably, but the truth is there are still truly just a ton of useful idiots even in software and other "high intelligence" areas

DanielHB 1y ago

it takes years, if not decades, but that kind of attitude eventually leads to IBM.

bayareapsycho 1y ago

> and keeps doing crazy layoffs so they can buy more GPUs They're doing layoffs and giving a wall street friendly reason for it The media eats the shit up because it's run by a bunch of people who hate the tech industry I guess it'll work until the market turns around and it forces them to shut up or bleed talent. Which could be around the corner since the R&D tax deduction is coming back, or if interest rates start dropping

deterministic 1y ago

I am not worried at all. The C suite will very quickly find out that developers are still needed. And you can then negotiate a better pay + bonus to return.