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Tesla reports 14% decline in deliveries, marking second year-over-year drop
- Analemma_ 1y agoOn the one hand, this was slightly better than analyst predictions. On the other hand, last quarter Tesla (and its online defenders) insisted the reason for the previous drop was that people were waiting for refreshed models. Now that the refreshes have been available for a full quarter and sales are still declining, we can rule that possibility out.
- sorcerer-mar 1y agoUnsurprisingly: $TSLA cult says this is good news
- lesuorac 1y agoHow is this not amazing news? TSLA has a 14% decline in deliveries but 19% increase in stock price. The direction of the company should be clear, decline deliveries by 100% for a sweat 2000% stock appreciation.
- ksherlock 1y agoAccording to WSJ, according to FactSet: "The final quarterly tally of 384,122 missed analysts’ expectations of 387,000 deliveries"
- wpm 1y ago$TSLA up 3.88% at the time of this comment.
- Hamuko 1y agoThe car company may not be selling vehicles but it has around ten invite-only self-driving manned robotaxis in a single US city that was possibly mapped separately before launch, so it's obviously worth a lot of money.
- maeln 1y agoAnd -3.91% on the last 5 days, and -8.89% in the last month, and +34% in the last year. There is no real point to be taken here.
- peab 1y agoYeah. The fact is Tesla is a volatile stock. You can paint any picture you want if you select the right timeframe.
- onlyrealcuzzo 1y agoIt's hard to un-paint the picture that it's got a 170 P/E, and it has 2 years of negative growth... Use a 365 day rolling average. You'll arrive at the same absurdity.
- spacemadness 1y agoPeople love making excuses for this stock. It’s a meme stock. It makes no sense and it never will.
- leesec 1y agoI love when everyone says this as if there is not very obvious reasons it could trade this high
- spacemadness 1y agoName them instead of stating it as fact.
- leesec 1y agotesla is making millions of cars with the capability of driving themselves. conservatively imagine the cars make 2k a month. each 1 million cars could then make 24 billion per year
- jasonlotito 1y agoThat's 1) buying the dip and 2) beating the estimate. TSLA has always been about the personality of a car salesman more than anything, so this isn't a surprise.
- b_zak 1y agoGenuine question: what is driving the stock that high in contradiction to the news ?
- johannes1234321 1y agoAssuming "the market" to act "rational" (which can be questioned to some degree in that case - there is hype and the Musk-Factor ..) the driver is that the news may still be better than the prediction: If everybody two days ago assumed a decline of sales by 30% the stocks dropped back then, then real numbers come and decline is "only" 14% they raise again as the bad news are still better than assumed. (The 30% is just an arbitrary number)
- Spooky23 1y agoElon does alot of manipulation of the stock. Also, the market is kind of shell shocked and has no idea wtf to do.
- epolanski 1y agoEven at insane growth multiples there's plenty of high/mega caps on the SP500 that will never, ever return investors the money that simple bonds will, you're paying way too much for way too little (future) cash flows and book. There's many companies that have their revenues flat or falling from quite some time which are still priced for insane future growth. Go figure.
- Marsymars 1y agoWell the problem there is that you don’t know which companies will pay better than bonds and which ones won’t. Haven’t run the numbers, but I assume that you could take the S&P 500 over whatever timeframe you want, remove all the stocks that didn’t outperform bonds, and be left with a basket of stocks that wildly outperforms the actual S&P 500.
- epolanski 1y ago> Well the problem there is that you don’t know which companies will pay better than bonds and which ones won’t. And that uncertainty should be priced in with a risk premium, the risk premium is nowhere to be seen.
- linotype 1y agoIn the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine. This still applies to TSLA.
- ARandumGuy 1y agoTesla's stock price has always seemed completely irrational to me. Tesla's market cap is over double Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, VW, GM, and Ford combined. All while selling far fewer cars then any of those manufacturers. For this market cap to make sense, Tesla would have to eventually become the dominant car manufacturer worldwide. And that just doesn't seem like a reasonable prediction, given that legacy car manufacturers are starting to figure out EVs, and newer EV-focused manufacturers are making huge strides. I don't know when (or even if) Tesla's stock price will fall back down to Earth. The old saying is that the market can remain irrational longer then you can remain solvent. But I do know that Tesla's stock price is not a good indicator of how well they're doing as a car manufacturer.
- stoobs 1y agoI'm expecting sales to drop even further at this point. Elon is too toxic, and they got distracted with the whole cybertruck nonsense and kicked the model 1/smaller more euro-focused one into the long grass
- api 1y agoElon also alienated their main customer base, then turned around and alienated the far right crowd he was trying to woo. Obviously 5D chess.
- ARandumGuy 1y agoIn general, the people who like EVs hate Elon's politics, and the people who like Elon's politics hate EVs. This significantly reduces the amount of people who want to buy a Tesla. This is the risk when you tie your brand to a single person, especially someone who loves being in the spotlight. Whenever that person does something controversial, that reflects poorly on the brand.
- blonder 1y agoAs a (former) huge tesla fan/shareholder, and current model 3 enjoyer, the cybertruck really makes me upset. The millions of dollars and engineering hours devoted to that thing that could have been devoted to a new product that people actually want and use (or even a halo product like the forgotten new roadster) was and is incredibly wasteful.
- consumer451 1y agoThe cybertruck is the full vehicle version of the mistake Musk made by pushing for the falcon-wing doors on Model X. He said that was a huge mistake, and nothing like that would ever happen again.
- gortok 1y agoAs someone who dislikes Musk's seemingly oblivious approach to "Move fast and break things" in government when real lives are at stake and expertise is not easy to come by, I really want this drop to be attributable to that. I really, really do. I own a Tesla (2023 Model Y Long Range 7-seat), and I do enjoy my Model Y; I have some complaints, but overall I'm happy with the safety features of the vehicle. I do not and will not enable the FSD or Auto-steer; but otherwise I am happy with it, and want other car manufacturers to take note of the vertical technological integration possible when they put their minds to it. However, in pursuit of a better bottom line, Tesla has made some affordance changes to their post 2023 models; and even their camera vision in the 2023 model is a poor substitute for ultra-sonic sensors for parking. Combine that with their gutting of the Tesla Supercharger team; and the subsequent decline in quality of their supercharger experience, and then combine that with the macro-economic issues that are surrounding EV range and EV experiences in real world conditions; and you have a decline that can be attributed to the non-Musk effects as well. I don't doubt his political machinations have contributed to Tesla's decline. If I could sell my Tesla, I would; (I am way underwater due to its steep drop in resale value), but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.
- homefree 1y agoYou should really try FSD, I have it drive me from SF down the peninsula and back every day and it’s amazing, basically requires zero intervention. I think the political complaints are dumb and people over index on stuff that doesn’t matter because of partisan politics. HN has hated on Tesla and musk for years despite continued success across multiple difficult industries. If the robotaxi work in Austin succeeds they’ll have a massive advantage. There’s really nobody close to what Tesla is doing. I had a 2018 M3P and now a 2025 Model S Plaid, the vision stuff works better, the quality is a lot nicer, there are a lot more superchargers and more are v3 or v4. The quality of the comments on this thread suggest there’s still value here to buy. When people dismiss stuff for dumb reasons it’s easy to make money. It’s been the story of Tesla from the beginning.
- gortok 1y ago
- oldpersonintx2 1y ago[dead]
- skeezyboy 1y ago[flagged]
- wigster 1y agothe way Trump is heading and his rage vs Musk, EVs will probably be banned soon
- jqpabc123 1y agoIt's pretty safe to say that after a decade of unfulfilled projections and promises, the Tesla EV fantasy is now a bust. So now it's off to new fantasy --- robotaxi. The problem with this fantasy --- ride hailing isn't nearly as profitable as auto manufacturing. Half the world isn't going to ditch their autos in favor of robo rides any time soon. This is what it will take to justify Tesla's current outlandish stock price. Uber P/E is about 20. Tesla P/E is around 170. Can Tesla ride hailing be 6 times bigger/more profitable than Uber in the near future? I personally don't think so.
- leoqa 1y agoI have been paying about (premium lost from rolling puts) 1k/month for the last 4 months to short Tesla. I made about 12k on the last dip so I’m profitable but I’m just waiting for the bubble to burst. Today I doubled down when it went up, hoping to one day see it fail.
- cbeach 1y agoWhereas on the other hand I've gained handsomely from holding Tesla stock for many years, and plan to hold it for many more years. It feels good to support American-made sustainable technology that has revolutionised the electric car and battery storage markets. I struggle to understand those who would short-sell Tesla, unless they have some kind of emotional hangup against Elon Musk or government efficiency?
- submeta 1y agoI am not gonna touch a Tesla again. Not because I didn’t like the product, but because of Elon. I‘m done with that brand.
- monkeyelite 1y agoOptimism used to be so high in this forum. People would call you a Luddite for questioning the stock price. I wonder if we could do a search to compare individuals change in sentiment from ~2018.
- eknkc 1y agoThe Model Y refresh happened this quarter and they basically had no deliveries for a month or something. Probably had an impact. I'm not sure how this goes in the long term though, likely to worse. For example BYD sold almost twice the number of cars in the same period and they don't seem to be slowing down.
- nine_k 1y agoI'm afraid that customers are more price-sensitive now, and a BYD definitely can sell for less than a Tesla.
- bigtones 1y agoBYD is definitely slowing down. They are cutting prices to increase domestic demand and have cut back worker shifts at their Chinese factories from three to two per day.
- baggachipz 1y agoThat was last quarter.
- arghandugh 1y agoRemember when Elon cornered his employee and flashed his cock at her and begged her for sex and when she refused he offered to buy her a horse because he’s a shameless degenerate?
- gwd 1y agoThat's the kind of thing you don't post without a reference.
- arghandugh 1y agoYou can use the “internet” to search “Elon + horse” and “self serve” your curiosity.
- gwd 1y agoThat doesn't place the burden in the right place. It should be the job of everyone reading to wonder if the accusations are true or try to prove them false. It should be the job of the person making the claim to post credible references.
- arghandugh 1y agoYes I should be footnoting the fact that a globally famous sex pest is a globally famous sex pest in a HN comment because your lazy ass can’t be bothered to Google something that nobody would make up in this context. Sell your Tesla.
- ceejayoz 1y agohttps://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1100356233/elon-musk-sexual-misconduct-flight-attendant https://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1100356233/elon-musk-sexual-m... > The woman says Musk asked her friend to perform sex acts in exchange for him buying her a horse. Earlier, the flight attendant had reportedly been encouraged to learn how to give massages. > The flight attendant filed a sexual misconduct claim against Musk, and SpaceX paid her $250,000 in 2018 as part of a settlement that's bound by non-disclosure and non-disparagement clauses, Insider reported.
- t1234s 1y agoIs there any downside to buying a used Tesla directly from Tesla? They sort of have a refurbished apple store vibe and give you an extra 1yr warranty on top of the existing warranty.
- AndroidKitKat 1y agoI bought a used Model 3 w/ FSD from Tesla and didn't regret it one bit. The car was not perfect (paint chips, windshield nicks, etc. normal car wear), but that comes with used car territory. I just went with Tesla directly since I've read that used car lots don't always do the best job accurately describing the software capabilities of the car (Intel or Ryzen / HW3 or HW4 / FSD outright or FSD subscription or not). If you're just interested in the car and not any of the software, then I'd go with whatever can get you a good price. I ended up selling the Model 3 last November and getting a new Model Y when they had a 0% APR + FSD transfer promotion running. If you're interested in FSD try to find a newer Model Y (mid 2023ish) or any refresh Model 3 for HW4.
- ChrisArchitect 1y agoRelated: Tesla sales drop for fifth month in a row in Europe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44416780 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44416780
- spacemadness 1y agoAnd yet the stock won’t drop and financial news is reporting it as “deliveries dropped less than feared.” There are no adults left in the world.