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I'm curious to hear people's predictions for the future: 1. Will Iran escalate, stay-the-course, or yield more in negotiations? Or take some other action I hav

I'm curious to hear people's predictions for the future: 1. Will Iran escalate, stay-the-course, or yield more in negotiations? Or take some other action I haven't thought of. 2. If Iran escalates, how far will it go? 3. If Iran does a token retaliation without major escalation, but refuses to give up its remaining nuclear program, what happens? Will the Israeli's be satisfied with a 2-4 year delay in Iran's program or will they continue low-grade attacks for the foreseeable future? 4. If Iran yields in negotiations, how far will they go? Will the agree to cease enrichment? If so, will they try to cheat? Or will the US accept some amount of enrichment and end up with a variant of JCPOA? 5. Do you think something else will happen not covered above? 6. What will the situation be in 10 years? 25 years?

827a 1y ago
IMO #3. They'll moan for a bit. Continue firing rockets. A couple weeks of this; Iran will claim that Iran won, Israel will claim Israel won. There won't be negotiations or concessions. They'll continue trying to develop nukes, but these past two weeks has set them back years. Things go quiet. In ten years we'll do this all over again. The thing people seem to not recognize is: There's basically three countries on the planet capable of actually waging war in the 21st century (US, and Russia/China barely). Every other country is just a proxy for one of these three; their domestic capabilities look more like "throwing a tantrum" than actual war. Israel can't wage war without the US. Iran can't wage war without China/Russia. Currently, the superpower contribution to this fight is just dropping some bombs and diverting a few crates of AK-47s. There's zero capability for long-term war here. But, there's also too much face-saving for negotiations or concessions to happen. So, the fire mostly quenches into embers; like the middle east has always been.
- xdennis 1y ago
  That seems ideal, but my fear is that Iran won't stop. It's cheaper to build low precision rockets/drones than the Israeli interceptors, so the war _could_ swing in Iran's favor in the long term. Additionally, Iranians aren't rising up because they don't want to be seen as being controlled by foreigners, but once the war stops, the Iranian regime will have to answer to its citizens. This means the mullahs have no incentive to stop.
  - sanderjd 1y ago
    Not only will they not stop, this has massively increased their incentive to successfully create a nuclear program. In the opposite direction but with the same outcome, the just-barely-enough aid that Ukraine has received after being invaded by Russia, has demonstrated that it's foolish for countries to give up their own nuclear weapons, on the understanding that a friendly superpower will protect them. This has been a very bad decade of events for incentivizing nuclear non-proliferation. I hate it!
    - GMoromisato 1y ago
      That is certainly the conventional wisdom. But is it right? Imagine that Iran already had 10 nuclear bombs and the US bombed the production sites with B2s. What would Iran do? They can't drop a nuke on the US, and even if they could, that would just ensure their destruction. Of course, one could argue that Iran is not rational and that it would nuke NYC even if it meant being destroyed as a country. But if we're assuming that they are irrational, then that's all the more reason to get rid of their weapons, even if it meant taking casualties. And note that the same calculation applies with Iran vs. Israel. If Israel attacks Iran conventionally, Iran cannot escalate to nuclear without also getting destroyed (since Israel has a larger arsenal). Moreover, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, actually demonstrates the uselessness of nuclear weapons. Yes, NATO and the US were initially deterred because of fears of Russian escalation, but we've continued to cross "red-lines" in arming Ukraine without escalation (tanks, F16, missile attacks on Russian soil, etc.). I'm pretty confident that Europe at least will continue to support Ukraine with ever more powerful weapons without fear of Russia's nuclear threats.
      - sanderjd 1y ago
        You don't have to speculate like this. We can just look at how North Korea is treated, now that they do have nuclear capability. From the Iranian (or Ukrainian) perspective, the conclusion can only be "better than us". In your hypothetical, we're sending B2s to drop bombs on their production sites. In the reality, we would not do that, for the same reasons that we are not sending B2s to drop bombs on North Korea's production sites.
nivertech 1y ago
Watch the last episode of SILO. > Dan is a congressman, and what journalist Helen really wants from him is information. She’s particularly interested in a “dirty bomb”—particularly, whether the rumors of one exploding in New Orleans are real, or merely fabricated to advance a war between America and Iran. Dan doesn’t answer, instead choosing to leave. It’s all vague, but it gives the viewer a chance to piece some details together: It was likely the bomb and the escalation of a war between America and Iran that led to the creation of the silos. https://time.com/7206478/silo-season-2-finale-explained/ https://time.com/7206478/silo-season-2-finale-explained/
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
rawgabbit 1y ago
#5. The US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will look for a proxy to fight Iran. China to determine if it should back Iran or not. Timeline of previous events 2006 – Hezbollah–Israel War: Iran arms Hezbollah during the 34-day conflict with Israel. 2010 – Stuxnet cyberattack: U.S. and Israel deploy malware against Iran’s Natanz uranium centrifuges. 2020 – Assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by Trump who orders drone strike that kills the IRGC Quds commander 2021 – Houthi–Saudi Escalation: Iran-backed Houthis use drones and missiles against Saudi Arabia. 2022 – Iran supplies thousands of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones to support Russia’s war in Ukraine and transfer technology to Russia 2023 – Iran-backed Hamas conducts large-scale attack against Israel who responds with major military operations in Gaza. 2025 – Israel and the US bomb Iran’s nuclear sites
deepsquirrelnet 1y ago
Worldwide, it’s always the presidents who need to cling to power to avoid accountability. We already pulled the “they have WMDs” card, despite significant credibility problems. We have a completely inexperienced 22 year old in charge of terrorism prevention at a time when any act of terrorism against the US would be a nightmarish scenario for escalation. To me it looks as though we sent the invitation and left a note that the front door is unlocked.
layer8 1y ago
Medvedev wrote on social media today that “Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads”. If there’s anything to that statement, things are likely to remain messy.
- isubkhankulov 1y ago
  Medvedev is like the US’s Lindsey Graham. Of all the politicians, they are to be least trusted due to their absurd hawkish takes.
insane_dreamer 1y ago
Trump’s now posting about regime change

827a 1y ago

IMO #3. They'll moan for a bit. Continue firing rockets. A couple weeks of this; Iran will claim that Iran won, Israel will claim Israel won. There won't be negotiations or concessions. They'll continue trying to develop nukes, but these past two weeks has set them back years. Things go quiet. In ten years we'll do this all over again. The thing people seem to not recognize is: There's basically three countries on the planet capable of actually waging war in the 21st century (US, and Russia/China barely). Every other country is just a proxy for one of these three; their domestic capabilities look more like "throwing a tantrum" than actual war. Israel can't wage war without the US. Iran can't wage war without China/Russia. Currently, the superpower contribution to this fight is just dropping some bombs and diverting a few crates of AK-47s. There's zero capability for long-term war here. But, there's also too much face-saving for negotiations or concessions to happen. So, the fire mostly quenches into embers; like the middle east has always been.

xdennis 1y ago
That seems ideal, but my fear is that Iran won't stop. It's cheaper to build low precision rockets/drones than the Israeli interceptors, so the war _could_ swing in Iran's favor in the long term. Additionally, Iranians aren't rising up because they don't want to be seen as being controlled by foreigners, but once the war stops, the Iranian regime will have to answer to its citizens. This means the mullahs have no incentive to stop.
- sanderjd 1y ago
  Not only will they not stop, this has massively increased their incentive to successfully create a nuclear program. In the opposite direction but with the same outcome, the just-barely-enough aid that Ukraine has received after being invaded by Russia, has demonstrated that it's foolish for countries to give up their own nuclear weapons, on the understanding that a friendly superpower will protect them. This has been a very bad decade of events for incentivizing nuclear non-proliferation. I hate it!
  - GMoromisato 1y ago
    That is certainly the conventional wisdom. But is it right? Imagine that Iran already had 10 nuclear bombs and the US bombed the production sites with B2s. What would Iran do? They can't drop a nuke on the US, and even if they could, that would just ensure their destruction. Of course, one could argue that Iran is not rational and that it would nuke NYC even if it meant being destroyed as a country. But if we're assuming that they are irrational, then that's all the more reason to get rid of their weapons, even if it meant taking casualties. And note that the same calculation applies with Iran vs. Israel. If Israel attacks Iran conventionally, Iran cannot escalate to nuclear without also getting destroyed (since Israel has a larger arsenal). Moreover, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, actually demonstrates the uselessness of nuclear weapons. Yes, NATO and the US were initially deterred because of fears of Russian escalation, but we've continued to cross "red-lines" in arming Ukraine without escalation (tanks, F16, missile attacks on Russian soil, etc.). I'm pretty confident that Europe at least will continue to support Ukraine with ever more powerful weapons without fear of Russia's nuclear threats.
    - sanderjd 1y ago
      You don't have to speculate like this. We can just look at how North Korea is treated, now that they do have nuclear capability. From the Iranian (or Ukrainian) perspective, the conclusion can only be "better than us". In your hypothetical, we're sending B2s to drop bombs on their production sites. In the reality, we would not do that, for the same reasons that we are not sending B2s to drop bombs on North Korea's production sites.

nivertech 1y ago

Watch the last episode of SILO. > Dan is a congressman, and what journalist Helen really wants from him is information. She’s particularly interested in a “dirty bomb”—particularly, whether the rumors of one exploding in New Orleans are real, or merely fabricated to advance a war between America and Iran. Dan doesn’t answer, instead choosing to leave. It’s all vague, but it gives the viewer a chance to piece some details together: It was likely the bomb and the escalation of a war between America and Iran that led to the creation of the silos. https://time.com/7206478/silo-season-2-finale-explained/ https://time.com/7206478/silo-season-2-finale-explained/

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

rawgabbit 1y ago

#5. The US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will look for a proxy to fight Iran. China to determine if it should back Iran or not. Timeline of previous events 2006 – Hezbollah–Israel War: Iran arms Hezbollah during the 34-day conflict with Israel. 2010 – Stuxnet cyberattack: U.S. and Israel deploy malware against Iran’s Natanz uranium centrifuges. 2020 – Assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by Trump who orders drone strike that kills the IRGC Quds commander 2021 – Houthi–Saudi Escalation: Iran-backed Houthis use drones and missiles against Saudi Arabia. 2022 – Iran supplies thousands of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones to support Russia’s war in Ukraine and transfer technology to Russia 2023 – Iran-backed Hamas conducts large-scale attack against Israel who responds with major military operations in Gaza. 2025 – Israel and the US bomb Iran’s nuclear sites

deepsquirrelnet 1y ago

Worldwide, it’s always the presidents who need to cling to power to avoid accountability. We already pulled the “they have WMDs” card, despite significant credibility problems. We have a completely inexperienced 22 year old in charge of terrorism prevention at a time when any act of terrorism against the US would be a nightmarish scenario for escalation. To me it looks as though we sent the invitation and left a note that the front door is unlocked.

layer8 1y ago

Medvedev wrote on social media today that “Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads”. If there’s anything to that statement, things are likely to remain messy.

isubkhankulov 1y ago
Medvedev is like the US’s Lindsey Graham. Of all the politicians, they are to be least trusted due to their absurd hawkish takes.

insane_dreamer 1y ago

Trump’s now posting about regime change