4 ms·

SF Housing Madness. Tired of Screaming into the Void

2 points by Compzilla 1y ago

I've been casually monitoring the SF market, hoping logic might eventually return. Then I saw this: 579 Belvedere St., a top-floor condo (2BR/1BA, 930 sqft), just sold for $1.5M ($200k over asking). Meanwhile, better units with more space or an extra bath sit for weeks unsold. Am I missing something? I know this area is desirable, but $1.5M for a 1-bath condo with no garage feels like 2021 energy. I need to vent! Genuinely asking… are people still panic-buying? Is this just wealth inertia? Tech optimism? Delusion? And yeah, I’m considering starting a “Wall of Shame” documenting these types of sales. Exhibit 1: this one.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
proc0 1y ago
It's probably investment driven. I lived in a couple buildings with very bad landlord companies that basically didn't care about the conditions of the building. I had to call city authorities because there was a rat infestation. Meanwhile I was paying nearly 2K and this was 5-10 years ago. There's something deeply wrong with that city, and everyone is a kind of in a trance trying to look away because they're all in the same political team or something like that. People suffer willingly as a form of weird self-sacrifice, so there is no accountability for the leadership that makes bad decision after bad decision (although of course they are making good decisions for the people who have the status and money).
- Compzilla 1y ago
  It seems totally seems plausible that investment groups could be responsible for this... the heaping on of more misery to the crippling affordability crisis there. Do you think they would stop if someone pointed out that they were definitely doing civic harm? That last bit was not to be taken seriously.
  - proc0 1y ago
    There's definitely corruption with the landlord companies and the local government to some extent, I'm just not sure exactly how and don't know much about it, but it's clear the priorities of the city do not favor the average SF citizen. The only way to deal with the corruption has to be holding the leadership of the city accountable through mass change in voting. Otherwise the same people keep running the place and it will never change. So yes, pointing it out and exposing them is probably part of the solution but it would only be a small part. I think people need to break out of their unwavering loyalty in order to hold the system accountable for any change to happen.
megamike 1y ago
I recall as a tourist visiting some 25 yrs ago and was shocked by how much a breakfast was at IHOP this was in the Golden Park area and than was more shocked when down the street at a realtors office with the for sale listings on the window and there was a listing for a 'unit' for 350,000 and reading further it was a garage made into some sort of condo Has SF always been wacky overpriced?
- PopAlongKid 1y ago
  >Has SF always been wacky overpriced? It's not just SF, it's California. Even going back 40 years, almost any place between Bay Area and San Diego that's within 50 miles of the ocean and is not rural[0] has been significantly more expensive than national average. [0]unless it has an ocean view
- Compzilla 1y ago
  It has always been a bit wackadoodle, but I remember 22-23 years ago, prices were high, but within earth's atmosphere.
vouaobrasil 1y ago
If you've got enough wealth to put a down payment even on 1M, not really much sympathy here for this "madness", because you could just move to a cheaper area and quit whatever job requires being in the SF area.
- Compzilla 1y ago
  Yes, good point. Even a healthy correction won't restore affordability. A nice start would be for those with this kind of wealth to stop overpaying just because they have some deep-seated desire to live in SF.
toomuchtodo 1y ago
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The value is the transaction price at in an arms length transaction. Go ask the buyers why they paid what they paid. Knock on doors, talk to realtors. All real estate is local.
- Compzilla 1y ago
  Yes! I would love to hear someone explain to me how they justified buying such an overvalued piece of real estate. How they allowed themselves to enter into a bidding war for a condominium. I mean this type of real estate is the most vulnerable to volatility, even in SF. If condos aren't risky enough, what about tenancies in common (yikes). SFHs are going to be much more stable of course.
leakycap 1y ago
Ask yourself if your quality of life is improved by the increased cost of living in that area. I'm not about to move to Texas, but it is amazing how easily you can save a huge amount of money just by opening up to other locations that would make you happy. Housing prices don't go down unless terrible thing happen; even then, sometimes they go up. I didn't list the address of the person that outbid me on my last house purchase, though. Maybe you should consider not posting the addresses unless you have a good reason.
- Compzilla 1y ago
  Well, you are entitled to your opinion. That said, I’m not trying to shame individual buyers. It is more just documenting sales that reflect a broken or speculative market. I think that is a valid "reason." All the addresses I mention are public and already on Zillow/Redfin, along with all the other details. I’m not listing out bidder names or license plates... just citing public sales. It’s less about the buyer (who is not mentioned) and more about how far from fundamentals pricing has drifted.
  - leakycap 1y ago
    > And yeah, I’m considering starting a “Wall of Shame” documenting these types of sales. Exhibit 1: this one Perhaps your wording wasn't well considered if you're not trying to shame buyers by listing addresses.
    - Compzilla 1y ago
      Fair enough. I see your point... probably a poor turn of phrase. I will avoid using it if I do post such a chronicle of transactions.
      - leakycap 1y ago
        Good luck on your house search. It will work out if you're open, but I found I had to be more open than I thought.
      - 1y ago
deanmoriarty 1y ago
I live in SF, find it a beautiful city but I’m not particularly attached to it, so I rent. The area where that property is located is really good, I live nearby. I think the property is worth that amount, since someone paid for it in a competitive market, that terrace with views of Sutro tower is spectacular. It’s also a good deal compared to its previous 2019 sale price ($1.4M), so it’s likely it was intentionally priced below market, the owner never meant to sell it at the asking price. The city just has so, so many wealthy people, it’s difficult to comprehend. I, a complete nobody, know a lot of people in their 20s with $10M+ net worth. I’m in my 30s with a $6M liquid net worth and I’m the least successful in my peer group. It’s not unreasonable to drop that much in a beautiful city with such a scarce inventory. I don’t think that property value will significantly drop any time soon, if ever. You are entitled to your own opinions and venting, but it might be more productive to just vote with your feet and leave, if this is too frustrating to deal with.
- tossandthrow 1y ago
  The housing market in SF is definitely an indication of concentrated wealth. That said - relatively few participants are needed to price the market. This is the case for housing, stocks (where ETF-holder do not perform pricing), etc. You are also likely not a nobody, not even in SF terms, with $6M liquid (assuming that there are quite a bit of investments on top of that). This would either require some successful speculative investments, top-level position in a successful company, inheritance, or successful exits. only inheritance with a long frugal lineage would yield a wealthy nobody.
- Compzilla 1y ago
  I appreciate that you and your peer group are doing well, but saying, “if you don’t like it, leave” kind of proves my point. It illustrates a bit of tech wealth blindness. My mother always told me... "just because you can doesn't mean you should." Maybe those with such means shouldn't be so quick to just contribute to the affordability crisis and force out families who have lived there for generations. The city has become a luxury good, a playground for the wealthy, not a place for the other classes to live. That’s the problem I’m trying to document, not just complain about. By the way, my daughter was born in this city. She just graduated from a very good school, but she will still never be able to afford this place as long as people like you maintain such a callous attitude about those who came before them.
msgodel 1y ago
PG says you need to move out there for the startup culture but stuff like this is why I'd rather be homeless on the East Coast.
- harambae 1y ago
  I’m not sure if I’m taking your statement too literally, but you’re much more likely to freeze to death being homeless on the East coast.
harambae 1y ago
I personally think an earthquake is what will tank prices. (If there’s one thing I took away from Covid it’s that people in America can get scared and flee to what feels safe… rationally or irrationally) Now predicting when the big one hits, good luck

2 points by Compzilla 1y ago

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

proc0 1y ago

It's probably investment driven. I lived in a couple buildings with very bad landlord companies that basically didn't care about the conditions of the building. I had to call city authorities because there was a rat infestation. Meanwhile I was paying nearly 2K and this was 5-10 years ago. There's something deeply wrong with that city, and everyone is a kind of in a trance trying to look away because they're all in the same political team or something like that. People suffer willingly as a form of weird self-sacrifice, so there is no accountability for the leadership that makes bad decision after bad decision (although of course they are making good decisions for the people who have the status and money).

Compzilla 1y ago
It seems totally seems plausible that investment groups could be responsible for this... the heaping on of more misery to the crippling affordability crisis there. Do you think they would stop if someone pointed out that they were definitely doing civic harm? That last bit was not to be taken seriously.
- proc0 1y ago
  There's definitely corruption with the landlord companies and the local government to some extent, I'm just not sure exactly how and don't know much about it, but it's clear the priorities of the city do not favor the average SF citizen. The only way to deal with the corruption has to be holding the leadership of the city accountable through mass change in voting. Otherwise the same people keep running the place and it will never change. So yes, pointing it out and exposing them is probably part of the solution but it would only be a small part. I think people need to break out of their unwavering loyalty in order to hold the system accountable for any change to happen.

megamike 1y ago

I recall as a tourist visiting some 25 yrs ago and was shocked by how much a breakfast was at IHOP this was in the Golden Park area and than was more shocked when down the street at a realtors office with the for sale listings on the window and there was a listing for a 'unit' for 350,000 and reading further it was a garage made into some sort of condo Has SF always been wacky overpriced?

PopAlongKid 1y ago
>Has SF always been wacky overpriced? It's not just SF, it's California. Even going back 40 years, almost any place between Bay Area and San Diego that's within 50 miles of the ocean and is not rural[0] has been significantly more expensive than national average. [0]unless it has an ocean view
Compzilla 1y ago
It has always been a bit wackadoodle, but I remember 22-23 years ago, prices were high, but within earth's atmosphere.

vouaobrasil 1y ago

If you've got enough wealth to put a down payment even on 1M, not really much sympathy here for this "madness", because you could just move to a cheaper area and quit whatever job requires being in the SF area.

Compzilla 1y ago
Yes, good point. Even a healthy correction won't restore affordability. A nice start would be for those with this kind of wealth to stop overpaying just because they have some deep-seated desire to live in SF.

toomuchtodo 1y ago

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The value is the transaction price at in an arms length transaction. Go ask the buyers why they paid what they paid. Knock on doors, talk to realtors. All real estate is local.

Compzilla 1y ago
Yes! I would love to hear someone explain to me how they justified buying such an overvalued piece of real estate. How they allowed themselves to enter into a bidding war for a condominium. I mean this type of real estate is the most vulnerable to volatility, even in SF. If condos aren't risky enough, what about tenancies in common (yikes). SFHs are going to be much more stable of course.

leakycap 1y ago

Ask yourself if your quality of life is improved by the increased cost of living in that area. I'm not about to move to Texas, but it is amazing how easily you can save a huge amount of money just by opening up to other locations that would make you happy. Housing prices don't go down unless terrible thing happen; even then, sometimes they go up. I didn't list the address of the person that outbid me on my last house purchase, though. Maybe you should consider not posting the addresses unless you have a good reason.

Compzilla 1y ago
Well, you are entitled to your opinion. That said, I’m not trying to shame individual buyers. It is more just documenting sales that reflect a broken or speculative market. I think that is a valid "reason." All the addresses I mention are public and already on Zillow/Redfin, along with all the other details. I’m not listing out bidder names or license plates... just citing public sales. It’s less about the buyer (who is not mentioned) and more about how far from fundamentals pricing has drifted.
- leakycap 1y ago
  > And yeah, I’m considering starting a “Wall of Shame” documenting these types of sales. Exhibit 1: this one Perhaps your wording wasn't well considered if you're not trying to shame buyers by listing addresses.
  - Compzilla 1y ago
    Fair enough. I see your point... probably a poor turn of phrase. I will avoid using it if I do post such a chronicle of transactions.
    - leakycap 1y ago
      Good luck on your house search. It will work out if you're open, but I found I had to be more open than I thought.
    - 1y ago

deanmoriarty 1y ago

I live in SF, find it a beautiful city but I’m not particularly attached to it, so I rent. The area where that property is located is really good, I live nearby. I think the property is worth that amount, since someone paid for it in a competitive market, that terrace with views of Sutro tower is spectacular. It’s also a good deal compared to its previous 2019 sale price ($1.4M), so it’s likely it was intentionally priced below market, the owner never meant to sell it at the asking price. The city just has so, so many wealthy people, it’s difficult to comprehend. I, a complete nobody, know a lot of people in their 20s with $10M+ net worth. I’m in my 30s with a $6M liquid net worth and I’m the least successful in my peer group. It’s not unreasonable to drop that much in a beautiful city with such a scarce inventory. I don’t think that property value will significantly drop any time soon, if ever. You are entitled to your own opinions and venting, but it might be more productive to just vote with your feet and leave, if this is too frustrating to deal with.

tossandthrow 1y ago
The housing market in SF is definitely an indication of concentrated wealth. That said - relatively few participants are needed to price the market. This is the case for housing, stocks (where ETF-holder do not perform pricing), etc. You are also likely not a nobody, not even in SF terms, with $6M liquid (assuming that there are quite a bit of investments on top of that). This would either require some successful speculative investments, top-level position in a successful company, inheritance, or successful exits. only inheritance with a long frugal lineage would yield a wealthy nobody.
Compzilla 1y ago
I appreciate that you and your peer group are doing well, but saying, “if you don’t like it, leave” kind of proves my point. It illustrates a bit of tech wealth blindness. My mother always told me... "just because you can doesn't mean you should." Maybe those with such means shouldn't be so quick to just contribute to the affordability crisis and force out families who have lived there for generations. The city has become a luxury good, a playground for the wealthy, not a place for the other classes to live. That’s the problem I’m trying to document, not just complain about. By the way, my daughter was born in this city. She just graduated from a very good school, but she will still never be able to afford this place as long as people like you maintain such a callous attitude about those who came before them.

msgodel 1y ago

PG says you need to move out there for the startup culture but stuff like this is why I'd rather be homeless on the East Coast.

harambae 1y ago
I’m not sure if I’m taking your statement too literally, but you’re much more likely to freeze to death being homeless on the East coast.

harambae 1y ago

I personally think an earthquake is what will tank prices. (If there’s one thing I took away from Covid it’s that people in America can get scared and flee to what feels safe… rationally or irrationally) Now predicting when the big one hits, good luck