6 ms·
I am concerned about the future. Are you?
My children are in college pursuing STEM degrees (CS and Robotics), with one also pursuing an art double major (animation).
While we are in the US, we also have family in Europe and Latin America.
So, what's the concern? Well, there are two that I think should be obvious.
The first is how AI will alter the landscape. It is easy to see that companies might be able to develop products with somewhere between 1/5 to 1/10 the engineers in the not-too-distant future. Let's define that as the time required for a fresh high school graduate to finish a Masters degree.
How can you possibly advise and guide a young person given the huge variability of potential outcomes 6 to 10 years out?
The second is the massive deindustrialization of the West (again, this isn't US-centric as Europe, Latin America and others are deeply affected) as China solidifies into a dominant position in manufacturing just-about everything.
What do the US, Europe and Latin America become when they don't make anything (in relative terms) and AI makes 8 out of 10 people not necessary to run most businesses?
In a recent thread here on HN about what's going on with courts about tariffs the usual one-sided hatred drove the conversation. And yet, nobody seems to stop to propose any sort of a solution to the very real problem that will affect hundreds of millions of people (billions?) in the next few years. If you don't even attempt to protect your industrial means and AI leads to massive unemployment, then what?
I am hoping for an exploratory conversation as a result of this post. My point is simple: Orange man bad. Fine. Got it. AI is unstoppable, so that is a reality we will have to face over the coming years. If we don't pull out all stops to protect the industrial base in the US, Europe and Latin America, the only thing I see is absolute devastation. We cannot float entire economies on the back of AI. That's not how things work. You need to make things. You need a vibrant and varied multidisciplinary industrial base to thrive and survive.
I don't think protectionism is a good idea for the long term. However, I don't think I am equipped to understand what else one might be able to do, what levers you can pull, to mitigate further economic destruction.
I have been in manufacturing my entire life, with a front seat to what has happened over the last few decades. It isn't pretty at all. And it will get much worse. Not only is trade unbalanced, various forms of manipulation (currency, IP theft, etc.) have laid a path of destruction that is deep and wide across many regions in the world. You can't support an economy purely on people making 3D printed and laser-cut trinkets to sell on Etsy.
So, if you can put your hatred aside for a few minutes. What are your ideas on what the US, Europe and Latin America can do to survive what's in the horizon?
EDIT:
Great comments so far.
I should add this before the edit window expires.
My thoughts on this have evolved over time. My current thinking is that the US and Europe should invest heavily in Latin America to industrialize various nations an create global competitive forces. I want to be able to choose to buy wire, screws, PCB's, power supplies, displays, motors, etc. from multiple sources, not just one. While it might be impossible to create these supply chains in the US and Europe, it is likely that they can be created in Latin America.
BTW, this isn't about hate on China. What they have accomplished over the last fifty years is nothing less than outstanding. I just think that this has been done at the expense of all other regions in the world and this simply isn't good for humanity.
Taken to one possible long-term negative outcome, you'll have billions of people across all regions of the world lose the knowledge and capabilities accumulated over decades participating in various industries. Once you lose these skill sets, at a minimum, it can take decades to re-acquire them or they never come back. A simply example of this is a specialized type of anti-reflection coated glass I used to buy from the sole remaining company in New York years ago. That company went out of business under pressure from predatory pricing by a Chinese company. I then switched to buying the same product from a company in German, the only remaining company in the west offering this product. A year later, they exited the market for the same reasons. This was over a decade ago. Today, this product is impossible to make in the west, the manufacturing equipment is no longer around and it is likely that the people with the knowledge and experience have retired or moved on. You can find examples of this across most industries and everywhere from Europe to the US and Latin America.
I think a fair, level global market --with respect for intellectual property-- and no undue manipulation is critical for global well-being. This isn't about making every single product in the US or Europe, that's impossible. Balance means that there's competition and you can choose who you do business with, as opposed to having absolutely no option but to buy from a single source. We are working on a consumer robotics project right now. I cannot buy anything for this product outside of China. Well, a few things here and there, maybe, but the bulk of it has to come from China. And, in fact, the manufacturing has to be done in China because that's where the supply chain exists (something most people don't understand). That's the problem.
- toomuchtodo 1y agoIf I could choose to have children again, I wouldn't. Not because of them; because of me, and the world. But they are here, so the only path is forward. Geopolitical turmoil, climate change, the future is high volatility imho. Growth and the "good times" are over because of demographics and populism, balkanization is highly probable. We have living arrangements both in the US and Western Europe. I hope to be able to get my kids EU citizenship eventually with various visas and residency. If the US improves, they can come back. If it doesn't, they can remain in Europe as they approach adulthood. Nationalism is silly, you'll get dragged by the median electorate. We/they are not Americans, or Europeans; we are just humans looking for community with other good humans with some sense of community and collectivism. After failing hard earlier in life, I became risk adverse, but also have had some success. I hope to have enough investments by the time I stop working that my kids can survive without working if needed. I also hope I have provided them enough resources and life skills to live a good life after I'm gone until they're gone. This is my apology to them for their existence in this macro, I hope they accept it, and failing that, at least understand it. You can't change the winds, you can only adjust your sails. Optimize for optionality. Better to have a plan you don't need than to need a plan you don't have. No one is coming to save us. > So, if you can put your hatred aside for a few minutes. What are your ideas on what the US, Europe and Latin America can do to survive what's in the horizon? Build for capability and security, not profit. Build so you can build when you need to build, build and protect the machine that builds the machines. Not hopeful, but that is the advice. Everything else is people, politics, policy, and capital to make that happen. "A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they will never sit in."
- unsupp0rted 1y ago> If I could choose to have children again, I wouldn't. A lot of people aren't willing to admit this publicly, or even privately to themselves.
- toomuchtodo 1y agoMy ego is dead, I am emotionally healthy and actualized, and in a few decades we'll all be gone and none of this will have mattered. I cannot speak for others, but I will speak the truth for me. If a compliment, thank you. I hope it encourages others to be more honest with themselves.