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This article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there i
by blendergeek 1y ago
This article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there is no upside to having bet that he would. Temporal things (like prediction markets) will cease to be interesting when Christ returns. Given that, I highly doubt that the people betting yes actually believe that Christ will return this year.
- PaulHoule 1y ago... and a lot of those folks don't think you should gamble! But really if it happened you wouldn't have any need for money, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mount https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mount
- wslh 1y agoJokes aside, it would be interesting to see if the people betting "yes" are also placing predictions on events after 2025 since truly believing in Christ's return that year should make many irrelevant.
- scarmig 1y agoYou'd still want to hedge.
- cvoss 1y agoRight? If you believe the odds of something are 51/49, you can say both 1) I believe the event is more likely than not, and 2) I absolutely will not bet the farm on the event.
- msgodel 1y agoI've tried to explain this to people before. Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions, some people just want to be long volatility for any number of reasons. The recent doge tax refund is a good example. If you want to be guaranteed payment you could bet on no even if you think it's a coinflip.
- zahlman 1y ago>Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions Polymarket propositions purportedly powerless as pure poles for popular predictions?
- NoMoreNicksLeft 1y agoThis would be less revealing than you'd hope. If NASA did a press conference this afternoon telling you that there was an inbound planet-killer that would annihilate us in six weeks, you'd still brush your teeth tonight. It wouldn't be that you'd didn't believe them either, it's that your mind isn't rational in the way that we like to flatter ourselves. Your mind's this big burlap sack of agents, and they aren't in perfect sync. The one that tells you what will happen in 24 months isn't the same one that plans out your routines... the latter can still have you behaving in ways that make no sense considering the strongly-confident predictions of the former. There is evidence of this everywhere, in nearly every person you meet. Including yourself. If even skeptical atheists act that way, why would the bible-thumpers be different? If they weren't different, how would that be an indictment of their belief?
- LPisGood 1y agoI would brush my teeth so my mouth tastes better in the morning
- ebiester 1y agoIs the purpose to collect money, or is it to proselytize? It may as well be a "Keep the name of Jesus and the thought of his return relevant"
- bsza 1y agoMore basic than that, I doubt he would take kindly to people placing bets on him.
- reverendsteveii 1y agoI'll never skip an opportunity to point out that of all the evil he faced, only the financiers were actually able to drive Jesus to the point of violence.
- tboyd47 1y agoNot true. The majority of people who actually believe Jesus will return are Muslims who believe he will oversee an earthly kingdom for 7 years. The world doesn't end with that event.
- cvoss 1y agoNot sure if you are making a nuanced claim about the proportions of self-identified adherents who actually subscribe to orthodoxies, but the population statistics generally cut against your claim. https://www.statista.com/statistics/374704/share-of-global-population-by-religion/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/374704/share-of-global-p...
- tboyd47 1y agoIf not "the majority", then a proportion conceivably large enough to affect the polymarket results.
- IncreasePosts 1y agoIsn't that subset of the population also very likely to believe that gambling is haram?
- username332211 1y agoIsn't the entire field of Islamic finance legal (moral?) loopholes that turn the haram into halal?
- tboyd47 1y agoNo.
- tboyd47 1y agoTouche
- sb057 1y ago
- flir 1y ago[flagged]
- victorbjorklund 1y agoAnd when there were no mass deaths they claimed it was because everyone got a fake shoot instead with water. Which makes no sense at all. There is an evil conspiracy to kill everyone with a vaccine but then the conspiracists (guess doctors?) just give everyone a fake dose instead.
- reverendsteveii 1y agoHey now, that's not fair. They claimed the shot was fake so mass deaths weren't happening, and that the mass deaths happened but were covered up, and that the shot was engineered to delay the mass deaths in order to aid said coverup, and also several other things. It was the reality of the week club, whatever reality resonates with you, that's the actual truth and aren't you just the cleverest chap for picking up on it when all the "experts" and their "education" and "evidence" and "experience" all tried to cover up the real truth: You Were Right All Along.
- Izkata 1y agoThey always said that it would be most visible 3-5 years after vaccination due to cumulative damage. I just did a quick search and am only finding numbers through 2023, the 2-year mark.
- Izkata 1y agoOther way around, the saline shots were supposedly given to important people so they could pretend to get the vaccination without having to actually do it.
- victorbjorklund 1y agoYea, that was the line at first. But when you asked them 1-2 years after the shots where all the dead vaccinated people are they often say it didnt happen because most didnt get the real vaccine (of course different anti-vaxxers are going to have different explantions. This is just some of them)
- NoMoreNicksLeft 1y agoThere is the potential for psychology, I think, where people who do not truly believe but that do want that religion (or something like it) to be true, and so perversely hope for "Christ's return" even if that means they will be damned. For them, they will have gotten to witness something non-boring, something truly important, even for the first time (and last) in their lives. I can't decide if this fits the definition of "believer" or not.
- jl6 1y agoPascal’s middle children of history.
- aspenmayer 1y agoAverage Neon Genesis Evangelion enjoyers.
- reverendsteveii 1y agoPerforming faith has significant social value. It's not that they expect they'll want the money after the bet pays off, it's that they want to show everyone else how sure they are that this is definitely going to happen because when they do a bunch of people they consider to be peers will shower them in praise and validation.
- DebtDeflation 1y agoWouldn't the inverse be true also? Why would non-believers bet yes? If they lose (which they see as the near certain case) they're out the money, if they win the money doesn't really offset eternal damnation. Seems like betting no is the only smart play regardless of personal beliefs.
- tempestn 1y agoExcept for the actual logical reason presented in the post.
- dragonwriter 1y ago> If Christ returns this year, the world is done If you believe in the literal statement about only 144,000 people being saved and in a pre-tribulation rapture, then “the world is done” only applies to a trivially small number of people.
- masfuerte 1y agoI'm not a theologian, but if this were to happen I don't suppose the unsaved would be able to peacefully play the prediction markets during the tribulation. It sounds bad.
- yieldcrv 1y agoThe tribulation occurs 7 years after 144,000 of the most boring most devout people disappeared forever. Are you sure you would even notice? Especially not for long. Supernatural things won't start occurring again for 7 years, and in a fairly slow drip. Unexplained loud trumpets in the sky? Natural disasters that already occur? This isn't an issue regarding the existence of money and markets. That still functions. Maybe even in more degenerate ways than before, which is super exciting!
- masfuerte 1y agoI was misled by the marketing. The tribulation seems to be less annoying than most of modern life.
- yieldcrv 1y agoIts really funny to think that some obscure ancient middle eastern sect or island nation will be the only ones to disappear in the rapture. Its far more likely that everyone is practicing the wrong path to salvation. Given how much its been retconned just to be appealing and palatable as the religion grew, most differences between sects are arguments about the retcons, while ancestor versions of the religion are ignored and too unattractive to consider.
- downrightmike 1y agoTrue, but most Christianity, esp in the USA is truly anti-Christ
- Sniffnoy 1y agoThat's an argument in support of the article's thesis, not against it. It doesn't make sense to say that the article doesn't "address" it. It's true that it doesn't mention it, but there's no sense in phrasing that like it's an argument against the article's point!
- zahlman 1y agoThe primary reason to bet on something outlandish sounding is to take advantage of some inefficiency or other in the market.
- JKCalhoun 1y agoI feel like it looks good on your rap sheet when you go before St. Peter. Maybe get a pardon of sorts?
- einpoklum 1y agoMarkets will cease to be interesting? I see you have not yet been blessed by the gospel of Supply-Side Jesus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc-LJ_3VbUA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc-LJ_3VbUA
- wubrr 1y agoIt could also be a way of showing just how much they believe - 'Jesus will return in X years and I'm willing to bet all I have on it!'
- hinkley 1y agoGod forbid you become rich at the last possible moment and then damn yourself for eternity in the process. Doesn’t the Bible frown on gambling anyway?
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- yieldcrv 1y agoIn one prominent flavor of Christian lore, there would be 7 years where nothing happened except for the people that go missing during the rapture in an instant.
- bawolff 1y agoHypothetically, its an expensive commitment that proves one's faith. Anyone can say jesus is coming, but less people are willing to put their money where their mouth is. The upside isn't the important part - the downside is. It proves that you really believe what you say. This happens all the time with countries when they are negotiating. E.g. Russia is pretty unimpressed when countries say they are going to give ukraine weapons unless there is a ceasefire. Its all cheap talk. If one of the countries bought the weapons first (that they otherwise would not of) and then threatens to give them to ukraine, its much more credible since they have sunk money into it. Or you could look at the animal kingdom with energy expensive mating rituals. The point is to waste resources in order to prove your commitment. Examples of this sort of thing show up all over the world.
- pj_mukh 1y agoAlso, if Christ did return, the first thing he's doing is probably whipping traders. So watch out Polymarket users!
- zombot 1y agoIt would be deeply un-American to believe in something that wouldn't make you rich.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]