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I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard (https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ https://tower.portoptimizer.com/) so you can check th

by dten 2y ago

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard (https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ https://tower.portoptimizer.com/) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

globalise83 2y ago
Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?
- jhickok 2y ago
  Yeah I was wondering if those models try to smooth those bumps.
- thfuran 2y ago
  I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.
  - crote 2y ago
    Ships can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.
    - 0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
      Container ships did get rerouted when that ship got stuck in the Suez Canal.
      - hnaccount_rng 2y ago
        But that’s “same port, different route” rerouting right? Here you would have to have “different port” rerouting (or some really weird weather making the Pacific intransitable”
    - immibis 2y ago
      There was an interview with a shipping manager somewhere (probably the 3-hour documentary by Gamers Nexus?). They said absolutely have been rerouting container ships in transit.
      - ijidak 2y ago
        But these ships are carrying containers for many different companies, right? If some companies want the goods now and other companies need to hold off, how does that work? Just whoever's shipping the most goods wins?
        JohnHaugeland 2y ago
        Most container ships aren’t enormous behemoths The more reasonable sized ones and the specialized ones (especially the car ones) often service a single buyer at a time
    - toast0 2y ago
      Cruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility. Some of the tariff increases are so high that they effectively spoil the cargo; there's no point in bringing it through customs at those prices, and it typically won't make sense to ship it back, and it may not be possible to ship it elsewhere from the port either, so it is most likely to be destroyed at the port. Delaying to see if tariffs go down may be worthwhile for enough of the cargo that it makes sense to slow the whole boat. Additionally, if demand for shipping is up, going faster allows for more supply, and if demand has slowed, going slower reduces supply.
      - TylerE 2y ago
        The tariffs are based on departure not arrival date.
        adgjlsfhk1 2y ago
        That's easy enough to fake. How is US customs going to know when a German company's ship registered in the Philippines left a Chinese port?
        pixl97 2y ago
        There is a pretty huge amount of ship and satellite tracking these days
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        You’d just lie about which ship it was on.
        thfuran 2y ago
        While it's still in the shipping container with a GPS tracker on it?
    - LeChuck 2y ago
      It happens all the time but it’s more useful to think in terms of container flows getting rerouted. Container ships sail in fixed loops so have containers on board for multiple ports. It often happens that the order in which the ports are called (the rotation) is changed, or a particular port gets skipped all together. Reasons can be congestion, delays in previous ports, etc. etc. The line can choose to transship the cargo, so pick it up with a second ship to carry it to destination, have the customer pick it up in the new location (possibly with a rebate) or truck/rail it to the final destination themselves.
etimberg 2y ago
That number for w20 will probably change. For example, when https://youtu.be/2GgcIuQ4X5k?t=324 https://youtu.be/2GgcIuQ4X5k?t=324 was produced w20 was predicted to be up 0.84% YoY.
kristjansson 2y ago
I think its: https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/ https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/ ?
dyauspitr 2y ago
Predictions are based on historical data which isn’t relevant in this case.
cle 2y ago
Week 9->10 2025 had a 35% drop too. And Week 9->10 2024 had a 45% drop and a 26% drop Week 16->17 2024. Starting to wonder how significant this news really is?
- dtech 2y ago
  That is Chinese New Year, it has always a very large drop. It's very impactful but expected and yearly. My companies reporting needs to correct for it since the date shifts on western calendar and if would mess up all reporting otherwise, so yes, this is extremely significant.
  - cle 2y ago
    Thank you for the details. I've no doubt that tariffs are having impacts. Was looking at that specific data and finding it hard to conclude with just that data. Does CNY also explain the Week 16->17 drop in 2024?
  - smingo 2y ago
    Chinese New Year falls between 21 January and 20 February. This would be somewhere between week 3 and week 8. Some ISO 8601 week numbers for CNY: 2022 CNY fell on Feb 1 , which is Week 5 2023 CNY fell on Jan 22, which is Week 3 2024 CNY fell on Feb 10, which is Week 6 2025 CNY fell on Jan 29, which is Week 5
- mbostleman 2y ago
  It’s sad that these posts of relevant facts - that are only presented as such, with no judgement - are being downvoted, apparently because they don’t supportive a narrative. One of the things I’ve always loved about Hacker News was how the community was so curious about truth. I guess all good things come to an end at some point.
  - cle 2y ago
    I would love to have conversations with folks about the details and learn more about it. The CNY mention was helpful.
jimt1234 2y ago
This site is obviously a "hostile and political act" by the Port of LA.
- atoav 2y ago
  Turns out reality itself is a hostile and political concept if your political leadership is incompetent enough.
  - Wojtkie 2y ago
    That's why there's such a strong push towards "alternative facts"
  - isaacremuant 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - wqaatwt 2y ago
      > proves not to be true Perhaps. It's not black and white of course, more like black and grey. Majority of all things Cheeto says are either outright lies or just incoherent rambling which is too hard to decipher. I mean you do have a point about tribalism and the danger of blindly supporting anyone. However that's almost entirely tangential in this specific case. Just stating the fact that Trump and his cabinet are extremely (purposefully or not) incompetent and corrupt is not partisan in any way whatsoever.
    - netsharc 2y ago
      Reality loses elections? What a surprise! How many politicians have so far sold bullshit lies like greatness again, which the desperate voters keep buying? Freaking planet has double the people (4 extra billions) compared to the 1970's and effects of burning the resources are now more and more apparent, but oh hey, that politician promises a return the prosperity of those times when you didn't even need condoms to fuck, do I want to face reality or do I want to vote for fake hope?
    - watwut 2y ago
cameldrv 2y ago
There's probably an effect of people who tried as hard as they could to get their goods loaded under the wire before the tariffs took effect, and so the following week would be less, but the following week would be closer to normal.

by dten 2y ago

globalise83 2y ago

Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?

jhickok 2y ago
Yeah I was wondering if those models try to smooth those bumps.
thfuran 2y ago
I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.
- crote 2y ago
  Ships can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.
  - 0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
    Container ships did get rerouted when that ship got stuck in the Suez Canal.
    - hnaccount_rng 2y ago
      But that’s “same port, different route” rerouting right? Here you would have to have “different port” rerouting (or some really weird weather making the Pacific intransitable”
  - immibis 2y ago
    There was an interview with a shipping manager somewhere (probably the 3-hour documentary by Gamers Nexus?). They said absolutely have been rerouting container ships in transit.
    - ijidak 2y ago
      But these ships are carrying containers for many different companies, right? If some companies want the goods now and other companies need to hold off, how does that work? Just whoever's shipping the most goods wins?
      - JohnHaugeland 2y ago
        Most container ships aren’t enormous behemoths The more reasonable sized ones and the specialized ones (especially the car ones) often service a single buyer at a time
  - toast0 2y ago
    Cruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility. Some of the tariff increases are so high that they effectively spoil the cargo; there's no point in bringing it through customs at those prices, and it typically won't make sense to ship it back, and it may not be possible to ship it elsewhere from the port either, so it is most likely to be destroyed at the port. Delaying to see if tariffs go down may be worthwhile for enough of the cargo that it makes sense to slow the whole boat. Additionally, if demand for shipping is up, going faster allows for more supply, and if demand has slowed, going slower reduces supply.
    - TylerE 2y ago
      The tariffs are based on departure not arrival date.
      - adgjlsfhk1 2y ago
        That's easy enough to fake. How is US customs going to know when a German company's ship registered in the Philippines left a Chinese port?
        pixl97 2y ago
        There is a pretty huge amount of ship and satellite tracking these days
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        You’d just lie about which ship it was on.
        thfuran 2y ago
        While it's still in the shipping container with a GPS tracker on it?
  - LeChuck 2y ago
    It happens all the time but it’s more useful to think in terms of container flows getting rerouted. Container ships sail in fixed loops so have containers on board for multiple ports. It often happens that the order in which the ports are called (the rotation) is changed, or a particular port gets skipped all together. Reasons can be congestion, delays in previous ports, etc. etc. The line can choose to transship the cargo, so pick it up with a second ship to carry it to destination, have the customer pick it up in the new location (possibly with a rebate) or truck/rail it to the final destination themselves.

etimberg 2y ago

That number for w20 will probably change. For example, when https://youtu.be/2GgcIuQ4X5k?t=324 https://youtu.be/2GgcIuQ4X5k?t=324 was produced w20 was predicted to be up 0.84% YoY.

kristjansson 2y ago

I think its: https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/ https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/ ?

dyauspitr 2y ago

Predictions are based on historical data which isn’t relevant in this case.

cle 2y ago

Week 9->10 2025 had a 35% drop too. And Week 9->10 2024 had a 45% drop and a 26% drop Week 16->17 2024. Starting to wonder how significant this news really is?

dtech 2y ago
That is Chinese New Year, it has always a very large drop. It's very impactful but expected and yearly. My companies reporting needs to correct for it since the date shifts on western calendar and if would mess up all reporting otherwise, so yes, this is extremely significant.
- cle 2y ago
  Thank you for the details. I've no doubt that tariffs are having impacts. Was looking at that specific data and finding it hard to conclude with just that data. Does CNY also explain the Week 16->17 drop in 2024?
- smingo 2y ago
  Chinese New Year falls between 21 January and 20 February. This would be somewhere between week 3 and week 8. Some ISO 8601 week numbers for CNY: 2022 CNY fell on Feb 1 , which is Week 5 2023 CNY fell on Jan 22, which is Week 3 2024 CNY fell on Feb 10, which is Week 6 2025 CNY fell on Jan 29, which is Week 5
mbostleman 2y ago
It’s sad that these posts of relevant facts - that are only presented as such, with no judgement - are being downvoted, apparently because they don’t supportive a narrative. One of the things I’ve always loved about Hacker News was how the community was so curious about truth. I guess all good things come to an end at some point.
- cle 2y ago
  I would love to have conversations with folks about the details and learn more about it. The CNY mention was helpful.

jimt1234 2y ago

This site is obviously a "hostile and political act" by the Port of LA.

atoav 2y ago
Turns out reality itself is a hostile and political concept if your political leadership is incompetent enough.
- Wojtkie 2y ago
  That's why there's such a strong push towards "alternative facts"
- isaacremuant 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - wqaatwt 2y ago
    > proves not to be true Perhaps. It's not black and white of course, more like black and grey. Majority of all things Cheeto says are either outright lies or just incoherent rambling which is too hard to decipher. I mean you do have a point about tribalism and the danger of blindly supporting anyone. However that's almost entirely tangential in this specific case. Just stating the fact that Trump and his cabinet are extremely (purposefully or not) incompetent and corrupt is not partisan in any way whatsoever.
  - netsharc 2y ago
    Reality loses elections? What a surprise! How many politicians have so far sold bullshit lies like greatness again, which the desperate voters keep buying? Freaking planet has double the people (4 extra billions) compared to the 1970's and effects of burning the resources are now more and more apparent, but oh hey, that politician promises a return the prosperity of those times when you didn't even need condoms to fuck, do I want to face reality or do I want to vote for fake hope?
  - watwut 2y ago

cameldrv 2y ago

There's probably an effect of people who tried as hard as they could to get their goods loaded under the wire before the tariffs took effect, and so the following week would be less, but the following week would be closer to normal.