4 ms·

It's going to get worse. This is actually buoyed by buying ahead of the tariffs, and the tariffs themselves haven't had a chance to take effect yet. The econo

by jmull 1y ago

It's going to get worse. This is actually buoyed by buying ahead of the tariffs, and the tariffs themselves haven't had a chance to take effect yet. The economic nosedive is just beginning.

Jcampuzano2 1y ago
Trump will still be blaming Biden for this all the way down to the bottom and until the last day of his presidency, and his cult will eat that shit up.
- tmountain 1y ago
  The die hard supporters, yes, but his approval is already in decline across a bunch of key demographics (women, independents, hispanics). The only President that has been less popular in the first 100 days is... Trump (first term). The majority disapprove with the current handling of the Ukraine war, ending foreign aid programs, and immigration (his strong point). His approval on the economy has fallen 13 points since December, which should be alarming for his party, as that was a key factor in his re-election (Biden inflation concerns). He can blame Biden all he wants, but the majority of Americans identify current economy as belonging to Trump. It's hard to blame Biden when he's been so vocal and brazen about the tariffs.
  - tim333 1y ago
    I think Trump 2 is polling lower than Trump 1. He of course is saying it's because the pollsters are criminals who should be investigated for fraud.
  - mvdtnz 1y ago
    > The only President that has been less popular in the first 100 days is... Trump The same guy who got re-elected? Early term approval ratings mean less than nothing.
    - tmountain 1y ago
      I don’t think people took his campaign promises like invoking the alien enemies act seriously. When someone tells you who they are, believe them.
      - ponector 1y ago
        He also promised to end the Ukrainian war in 24h. You cannot take any of his words seriously, only signed documents.
        deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
boplicity 1y ago
> This is actually buoyed by buying ahead of the tariff Actually, the way the report works is the opposite. The increase in purchasing ahead of the tariffs counted against GDP growth, in terms of how the numbers were calculated in this report. To be clear: Trump is a disaster, and I disagree with his approach.
- japhib 1y ago
  Interesting! Can you explain how this works? (economics noob over here)
  - thfuran 1y ago
    People buying and selling goods and services within the US are contributing to the GDP. If some people take some of that money they would've spent domestically and instead use it to import extra stuff (which doesn't count towards GDP), the GDP will go down.
    - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
      > instead use it to import extra stuff Most of the value of an iPhone is recorded as American GDP because American IP and software went into it, Apple is keeping a lot of the price for the phone, and only sending a bit off to China for assembly (and a larger bit off to South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for components that China is assembling). What remains is still a lot of American GDP. A small business who is contracting China to make the thing that they then sell is also generating a lot of GDP. Yes, they send some percent off to China to make the thing, but a majority is GDP generated here in the USA (the small business does the design, marketing, sales, etc...). If they go belly up because of the trade war (very likely, since no one else can make their thing, and before China developed this capability, making the thing wasn't even possible!), that GDP is gone, the people that small business was employing are unemployed. The increased purchases should not decrease American GDP, unless consumers are buying directly from China using Temu and are not buying at Walmart.
      - 1y ago
JohnnyMarcone 1y ago
Are you confident enough in that prediction to short the market?
- JohnTHaller 1y ago
  "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
  - Sammi 1y ago
    You're the second person to make that quote in this discussion. It's such a lazy sentiment. You do know that there are people who have long careers in options trading, right?
    - antifa 1y ago
      Not everyone is a gambling addict.
    - margalabargala 1y ago
      It's a reasonable response to the commenter saying "yeah well if you think so you should go tie your financial wellbeing to you being right". Just because it's someone's profession doesn't mean is is or should be everyone's profession.
      - Sammi 1y ago
        Of course it shouldn't be everyone's profession. Most people would and do fail miserably as options traders. A tiny minority though does make consistent long term money as option traders. What this tells us is that the qoute is refuted, because we have a counterfactual. There is indeed some rational system to the market that some people are able to figure out.
        margalabargala 1y ago
        Just because the quote doesn't apply to everyone, does not meant the quote does not apply to anyone. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" is true for me, for you, for the person who quoted it above, and for the median person reading it. The fact that some people make a living off of attempting to beat the market, with...mixed success, doesn't mean that the quote is false.

by jmull 1y ago

It's going to get worse. This is actually buoyed by buying ahead of the tariffs, and the tariffs themselves haven't had a chance to take effect yet. The economic nosedive is just beginning.

Jcampuzano2 1y ago

Trump will still be blaming Biden for this all the way down to the bottom and until the last day of his presidency, and his cult will eat that shit up.

tmountain 1y ago
The die hard supporters, yes, but his approval is already in decline across a bunch of key demographics (women, independents, hispanics). The only President that has been less popular in the first 100 days is... Trump (first term). The majority disapprove with the current handling of the Ukraine war, ending foreign aid programs, and immigration (his strong point). His approval on the economy has fallen 13 points since December, which should be alarming for his party, as that was a key factor in his re-election (Biden inflation concerns). He can blame Biden all he wants, but the majority of Americans identify current economy as belonging to Trump. It's hard to blame Biden when he's been so vocal and brazen about the tariffs.
- tim333 1y ago
  I think Trump 2 is polling lower than Trump 1. He of course is saying it's because the pollsters are criminals who should be investigated for fraud.
- mvdtnz 1y ago
  > The only President that has been less popular in the first 100 days is... Trump The same guy who got re-elected? Early term approval ratings mean less than nothing.
  - tmountain 1y ago
    I don’t think people took his campaign promises like invoking the alien enemies act seriously. When someone tells you who they are, believe them.
    - ponector 1y ago
      He also promised to end the Ukrainian war in 24h. You cannot take any of his words seriously, only signed documents.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

boplicity 1y ago

> This is actually buoyed by buying ahead of the tariff Actually, the way the report works is the opposite. The increase in purchasing ahead of the tariffs counted against GDP growth, in terms of how the numbers were calculated in this report. To be clear: Trump is a disaster, and I disagree with his approach.

japhib 1y ago
Interesting! Can you explain how this works? (economics noob over here)
- thfuran 1y ago
  People buying and selling goods and services within the US are contributing to the GDP. If some people take some of that money they would've spent domestically and instead use it to import extra stuff (which doesn't count towards GDP), the GDP will go down.
  - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
    > instead use it to import extra stuff Most of the value of an iPhone is recorded as American GDP because American IP and software went into it, Apple is keeping a lot of the price for the phone, and only sending a bit off to China for assembly (and a larger bit off to South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for components that China is assembling). What remains is still a lot of American GDP. A small business who is contracting China to make the thing that they then sell is also generating a lot of GDP. Yes, they send some percent off to China to make the thing, but a majority is GDP generated here in the USA (the small business does the design, marketing, sales, etc...). If they go belly up because of the trade war (very likely, since no one else can make their thing, and before China developed this capability, making the thing wasn't even possible!), that GDP is gone, the people that small business was employing are unemployed. The increased purchases should not decrease American GDP, unless consumers are buying directly from China using Temu and are not buying at Walmart.
    - 1y ago

JohnnyMarcone 1y ago

Are you confident enough in that prediction to short the market?

JohnTHaller 1y ago
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
- Sammi 1y ago
  You're the second person to make that quote in this discussion. It's such a lazy sentiment. You do know that there are people who have long careers in options trading, right?
  - antifa 1y ago
    Not everyone is a gambling addict.
  - margalabargala 1y ago
    It's a reasonable response to the commenter saying "yeah well if you think so you should go tie your financial wellbeing to you being right". Just because it's someone's profession doesn't mean is is or should be everyone's profession.
    - Sammi 1y ago
      Of course it shouldn't be everyone's profession. Most people would and do fail miserably as options traders. A tiny minority though does make consistent long term money as option traders. What this tells us is that the qoute is refuted, because we have a counterfactual. There is indeed some rational system to the market that some people are able to figure out.
      - margalabargala 1y ago
        Just because the quote doesn't apply to everyone, does not meant the quote does not apply to anyone. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" is true for me, for you, for the person who quoted it above, and for the median person reading it. The fact that some people make a living off of attempting to beat the market, with...mixed success, doesn't mean that the quote is false.