4 ms·

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck driver

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

trymas 1y ago
I think there were already multiple posts on HN about this. Most recent I remember UPS firing 20 000 people. Edit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43835849 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43835849
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  This was because UPS let an Amazon delivery deal roll off that was not profitable. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000109072725000046/exhibit991-earningspressre.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000109072725... https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/financials/ups-releases-4q-2024-earnings-and-provides-2025-guidance.html https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/financia...
  - wavefunction 1y ago
    UPS said it was because shipping volumes at Amazon are down, so it's not-profitable because shipping-volumes are down. lol
rdtsc 1y ago
> I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of But since we’re being cynical, is importing stuff just to keep the port workers busy a good idea?
- louthy 1y ago
  Because that’s the only reason things are imported?
  - rdtsc 1y ago
    No but it's presented as the major problem to solve. There are lot larger issues at play and if keeping pork workers buys is the goal, then we should have them load and unload empty boxes /s
    - profmonocle 1y ago
      I don't think OP was specifically stating we need to save these specific jobs, rather they were pointing out the interconnected nature of the economy. Less importing hurts the workers in those industries. Taking that further, it will hurt businesses near the ports where the workers may have gotten lunch, etc. etc. etc. That's how recessions look at a microeconomic scale.
      - rdtsc 1y ago
        > rather they were pointing out the interconnected nature of the economy. Less importing hurts the workers in those industries. Well I agree with that phrasing however the OP said it as: > to be so cynical [...] that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? That leads to a different interpretation and sounds like something else than what you said (which I agree with).
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- thehoff 1y ago
  I didn't mean we should keep importing to keep people busy. I'm sure that whatever was coming through those ports was ordered by a large number of companies/individuals. Sure, if we were in a downturn it would slow but not come to a standstill. From this article "Even during the COVID nonsense, the supply chain did not experience THIS kind of sudden shut down."
  - optimalsolver 1y ago
    It's not a downturn, it's a trade war, complete with effective blockade.
  - rdtsc 1y ago
    > I didn't mean we should keep importing to keep people busy. I'm sure that whatever was coming through those ports was ordered by a large number of companies/individual Sure but you were being cynical and presented port workers not having having thing to unload as a major issue to worry about. In the whole scheme it seemed like not the first problem to solve.
- ceejayoz 1y ago
  Yes, probably. Lose skilled, trained workers to another industry and it may be tough to get them back later on when you need them again.
  - rdtsc 1y ago
    > Yes, probably. Lose skilled, trained workers to another industry and it may be tough to get them back later on when you need them again. I love it! If that's the case, then it's easily solved, just ship empty cardboard boxes back and forth to/from Hawaii. The workers can diligently load and unload them, and then load them right back. The truck drivers can do a few loops around Los Angeles even to keep up their training. That that kind of happened during a phase of the Soviet Union's economic development. The economic success of a branch was measured by the amount of resources consumed and the allocated work done. So they had started building large couches and started running empty trains back and forth to consume wood or fuel and add up "miles driven" to their ledger. We can do the same /s
    - ceejayoz 1y ago
      Or… undo the change that caused a temporary shock. By all means, retrain the blacksmiths in the early 1900s… but this isn't that sort of situation. We'll need the port workers again.
- duxup 1y ago
  > just Well we don’t import things to just do that.
  - rdtsc 1y ago
    Sure, but it's presented as the major problem here. There are other problems to worry about at that scale
- Zamaamiro 1y ago
  No, but we're not just importing stuff because it keeps port workers busy. We import stuff because there is demand for it, and port workers' labor generates many multiples of profitable business activity downstream.
throw310822 1y ago
Dockworkers, logistics, truck delivery drivers, warehouse workers, etc. On the other hand, I guess it might be a great time for small shops and businesses that produce low to medium tech stuff- from crafts, clothing and furniture to electronics. Even if the country's going to suffer they should profit handsomely (which is not a bad thing per se).
- bitmasher9 1y ago
  Except those businesses relay heavily on imported materials. For example, no one is weaving cotton into fabric in the US at any scale.
  - rad_gruchalski 1y ago
    Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.
    - rtkwe 1y ago
      Who's going to invest in a business that's only profitable as long as we keep these insane tariff level up and will take several years to spin up? (Plus where are they going to get the machines to do the actual work? Those are being tariffed too!)
      - rad_gruchalski 1y ago
        I don’t know. Maybe MAGA Sun knows.
    - pixl97 1y ago
      Yea, the bank is just going to love to hand out money with the amount of political and economic uncertainty injected into the system....
      - rad_gruchalski 1y ago
        If the bank can not finance your stuff maybe Trump knows some people who can borrow you money? On preferential conditions, of course… who knows, maybe he gets into loan business himself.
perihelions 1y ago
But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0]. [0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ("China’s first self-built fully automated dock enters operation in Qingdao, Shandong Province" (2023))
- doctorwho42 1y ago
  Because their centralized government seems to have a purpose other than gaining power and wealth.
  - 9rx 1y ago
    Even where power and wealth is the sole purpose, "saving labor" to allow them to move into new jobs with higher meaning to your power/wealth would be your default take. "Job loss" is the position only when you've stopped innovating and can't imagine that there is anything else people can do.
  - philipallstar 1y ago
    It's just people commentating differently depending on what "team" they think the target of the comment is on - people who think socialism is probably a good idea, but bemoan any automation done by private industry that causes job losses. However they will love China's efficiency doing the same thing.
  - cjbgkagh 1y ago
    What do you think gaining power and wealth looks like? To me the Chinese central government seem hyper-fixated on it and it is working out well for them. Making strategic dual-purpose investments is directly aligned with gaining power and wealth.
- ebruchez 1y ago
  True or not, be aware that "The Global Times is a daily tabloid newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's flagship newspaper, the People's Daily, commenting on international issues from a Chinese nationalistic perspective." (Wikipedia)
ChainOfFools 1y ago
Intermodal freight drayage industry, which is largely comprised of a thousands of very small and ineffocoently run mom and pop nepo-companies run dependent upon an open tolerance of very scammy business tactics extending temporary surcharges indefinitely, milking covid business relief loans to the fullest extent possible) in order to survive, is going to experience a mass die-off if this tariff war lasts another 6 to 9 months.

trymas 1y ago

I think there were already multiple posts on HN about this. Most recent I remember UPS firing 20 000 people. Edit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43835849 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43835849

toomuchtodo 1y ago
This was because UPS let an Amazon delivery deal roll off that was not profitable. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000109072725000046/exhibit991-earningspressre.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000109072725... https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/financials/ups-releases-4q-2024-earnings-and-provides-2025-guidance.html https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/financia...
- wavefunction 1y ago
  UPS said it was because shipping volumes at Amazon are down, so it's not-profitable because shipping-volumes are down. lol

rdtsc 1y ago

> I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of But since we’re being cynical, is importing stuff just to keep the port workers busy a good idea?

louthy 1y ago
Because that’s the only reason things are imported?
- rdtsc 1y ago
  No but it's presented as the major problem to solve. There are lot larger issues at play and if keeping pork workers buys is the goal, then we should have them load and unload empty boxes /s
  - profmonocle 1y ago
    I don't think OP was specifically stating we need to save these specific jobs, rather they were pointing out the interconnected nature of the economy. Less importing hurts the workers in those industries. Taking that further, it will hurt businesses near the ports where the workers may have gotten lunch, etc. etc. etc. That's how recessions look at a microeconomic scale.
    - rdtsc 1y ago
      > rather they were pointing out the interconnected nature of the economy. Less importing hurts the workers in those industries. Well I agree with that phrasing however the OP said it as: > to be so cynical [...] that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? That leads to a different interpretation and sounds like something else than what you said (which I agree with).
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
thehoff 1y ago
I didn't mean we should keep importing to keep people busy. I'm sure that whatever was coming through those ports was ordered by a large number of companies/individuals. Sure, if we were in a downturn it would slow but not come to a standstill. From this article "Even during the COVID nonsense, the supply chain did not experience THIS kind of sudden shut down."
- optimalsolver 1y ago
  It's not a downturn, it's a trade war, complete with effective blockade.
- rdtsc 1y ago
  > I didn't mean we should keep importing to keep people busy. I'm sure that whatever was coming through those ports was ordered by a large number of companies/individual Sure but you were being cynical and presented port workers not having having thing to unload as a major issue to worry about. In the whole scheme it seemed like not the first problem to solve.
ceejayoz 1y ago
Yes, probably. Lose skilled, trained workers to another industry and it may be tough to get them back later on when you need them again.
- rdtsc 1y ago
  > Yes, probably. Lose skilled, trained workers to another industry and it may be tough to get them back later on when you need them again. I love it! If that's the case, then it's easily solved, just ship empty cardboard boxes back and forth to/from Hawaii. The workers can diligently load and unload them, and then load them right back. The truck drivers can do a few loops around Los Angeles even to keep up their training. That that kind of happened during a phase of the Soviet Union's economic development. The economic success of a branch was measured by the amount of resources consumed and the allocated work done. So they had started building large couches and started running empty trains back and forth to consume wood or fuel and add up "miles driven" to their ledger. We can do the same /s
  - ceejayoz 1y ago
    Or… undo the change that caused a temporary shock. By all means, retrain the blacksmiths in the early 1900s… but this isn't that sort of situation. We'll need the port workers again.
duxup 1y ago
> just Well we don’t import things to just do that.
- rdtsc 1y ago
  Sure, but it's presented as the major problem here. There are other problems to worry about at that scale
Zamaamiro 1y ago
No, but we're not just importing stuff because it keeps port workers busy. We import stuff because there is demand for it, and port workers' labor generates many multiples of profitable business activity downstream.

throw310822 1y ago

Dockworkers, logistics, truck delivery drivers, warehouse workers, etc. On the other hand, I guess it might be a great time for small shops and businesses that produce low to medium tech stuff- from crafts, clothing and furniture to electronics. Even if the country's going to suffer they should profit handsomely (which is not a bad thing per se).

bitmasher9 1y ago
Except those businesses relay heavily on imported materials. For example, no one is weaving cotton into fabric in the US at any scale.
- rad_gruchalski 1y ago
  Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.
  - rtkwe 1y ago
    Who's going to invest in a business that's only profitable as long as we keep these insane tariff level up and will take several years to spin up? (Plus where are they going to get the machines to do the actual work? Those are being tariffed too!)
    - rad_gruchalski 1y ago
      I don’t know. Maybe MAGA Sun knows.
  - pixl97 1y ago
    Yea, the bank is just going to love to hand out money with the amount of political and economic uncertainty injected into the system....
    - rad_gruchalski 1y ago
      If the bank can not finance your stuff maybe Trump knows some people who can borrow you money? On preferential conditions, of course… who knows, maybe he gets into loan business himself.

perihelions 1y ago

But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0]. [0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ("China’s first self-built fully automated dock enters operation in Qingdao, Shandong Province" (2023))

doctorwho42 1y ago
Because their centralized government seems to have a purpose other than gaining power and wealth.
- 9rx 1y ago
  Even where power and wealth is the sole purpose, "saving labor" to allow them to move into new jobs with higher meaning to your power/wealth would be your default take. "Job loss" is the position only when you've stopped innovating and can't imagine that there is anything else people can do.
- philipallstar 1y ago
  It's just people commentating differently depending on what "team" they think the target of the comment is on - people who think socialism is probably a good idea, but bemoan any automation done by private industry that causes job losses. However they will love China's efficiency doing the same thing.
- cjbgkagh 1y ago
  What do you think gaining power and wealth looks like? To me the Chinese central government seem hyper-fixated on it and it is working out well for them. Making strategic dual-purpose investments is directly aligned with gaining power and wealth.
ebruchez 1y ago
True or not, be aware that "The Global Times is a daily tabloid newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's flagship newspaper, the People's Daily, commenting on international issues from a Chinese nationalistic perspective." (Wikipedia)

ChainOfFools 1y ago

Intermodal freight drayage industry, which is largely comprised of a thousands of very small and ineffocoently run mom and pop nepo-companies run dependent upon an open tolerance of very scammy business tactics extending temporary surcharges indefinitely, milking covid business relief loans to the fullest extent possible) in order to survive, is going to experience a mass die-off if this tariff war lasts another 6 to 9 months.