6 ms·

+1, exactly. Focusing too much in the money makes you forget about the power. At a national leadership level, there isn't much power in having a local Warhammer

by aylmao 2y ago

+1, exactly. Focusing too much in the money makes you forget about the power. At a national leadership level, there isn't much power in having a local Warhammer industry, fishing is much more strategic. In broad terms, this is related to the error the USA made. Manufacturing in China was a very profitable deal for the USA. A lot of companies view labour first and foremost as expense, wealth as as the goal, and power in wealth— so it's not surprising as a whole the industry opted to "contract out" labour across the globe. A lot of power lays in labour though. Money doesn't produce, invent, move, feed, etc— money is only good if someone will take it at the amounts you have it to do that specific labour you need for you.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago
This is a bit harsh: the USA didn't devalue labor in general, just manufacturing. They hired software engineers from all over the world, along with a lot of higher value engineering and product development jobs. The error the USA made was in pushing the workforce up the value chain faster than everyone could handle, and a lot of Americans got left behind. China is moving up the value chain also, they are being forced to by their demographics, and they are investing heavily in the change ATM (just like they started investing heavily in green energy 10 years ago) so I don't think they will make the same mistake as the Americans are making right now.
- rayiner 2y ago
  A lot of our “value chain” is bullshit. If and when China becomes twice as big an economy as the US, much of our “edge” in marketing, finance, and services isn’t going to mean squat. E.g. how much “GDP” will evaporate overnight when American universities no longer have the cachet that comes along with being the best universities in America?
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    > A lot of our “value chain” is bullshit. No it isn't, productivity has to increase, that's why we constantly get rid of jobs that do not provide much value. People want more money, and the only way we get there is with more productivity (doing jobs that make more money). > If and when China becomes twice as big an economy as the US, much of our “edge” in marketing, finance, and services isn’t going to mean squat. China gets to 2X our GDP by doing what we basically did in the 90s, so you are definitely right! They will have their own marketing, financing and services. The only difference is that they won't need to outsource manufacturing to China (well, they are outsourcing it a bit now, but also investing tons in automation). > E.g. how much “GDP” will evaporate overnight when American universities no longer have the cachet that comes along with being the best universities in America? I don't know what you are ranting about, but I get the feeling that if I did know what you were saying here I would probably agree with you.
    - rayiner 2y ago
      > No it isn't, productivity has to increase, that's why we constantly get rid of jobs that do not provide much value. Our measures of “value” are wrong. > I don't know what you are ranting about My point is that a lot of what we think of as “higher value” activities are actually derivative of and downstream of our industrial supremacy. As China takes up that mantle, the higher value activities will go along with it. E.g., how long do we expect the US to do the cutting edge nuclear power and weapons research when China is the one building all the nuclear power plants? I mean look at the path dependency that led to Silicon Valley. Why did the software revolution happen in the same place we were building the microchips?
      - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
        We basically agree then: as China takes up higher value activities, they won't need those activities from the US anymore. Also, France is the cutting edge designer of nuclear power plants these days. > Why did the software revolution happen in the same place we were building the microchips? Hardware people becoming software people was extremely common back then, and still is today (EEs can make more coding than using their degree directly). Now we have the opposite problem (we don't have enough hardware people because software sucked all the oxygen out of the room) and China has less of it (although increasingly...they are repeating history as well). If anything, this just backs up my point in how higher value activities de-emphasize manufacturing (even super high end manufacturing as in semiconductors). You can replace perceived value with actual value if you don't agree with the value judgement calls that were made, which is entirely reasonable.
        WillPostForFood 2y ago
        "we don't have enough hardware people because software sucked all the oxygen out of the room" How much is this exacerbated by the lack of domestic hardware manufacturing in the US for the hardware people? Seems like software boom starting in the late 1990's happened as China came online for hardware outsourcing. Not suggesting a causal relationship there, just complementary effects.
- kilolima 2y ago
  Did they hire those software engineers along with their unions? Not quite. It's all about labor and getting rid of the class that used to (and could have) threatened the elites.
  - consp 2y ago
    SE will one day realize they are as screwed as the average worker and unionize in some way. The endless money pits are not for every SE, even today the majority does not work for the creme-de-creme of well paying companies. While specialists and smooth talkers might profit from the current model, as always is the case, most won't.
    - briandear 2y ago
      Then when they unionize, all the software jobs will head to cheaper locales. Unless of course you’re suggesting that the U.S. use tariffs on labor to prevent that?
      - SiempreViernes 2y ago
        > Then [...] all the software jobs will head to cheaper locales Dude, how have you completed missed the ongoing push for AI to replace developers?
        9rx 2y ago
        I only see a push for AI to produce more developers. How could AI, as we know it today, even replace developers? More developers isn't at odds with the previous comment. That is how you can more easily push the jobs to low cost areas! When 张三 in rural China is given his first computer he can jump right into being a programmer too. Thus you can give him the job instead of a high priced developer in America.
        fragmede 2y ago
        I want to build a thing. Before AI it would take 1 year and a team of five developers. Now with ai, it's gonna take you 6 months and 3 developers. Those two developers didn't get jobs because of AI.

by aylmao 2y ago

seanmcdirmid 2y ago

This is a bit harsh: the USA didn't devalue labor in general, just manufacturing. They hired software engineers from all over the world, along with a lot of higher value engineering and product development jobs. The error the USA made was in pushing the workforce up the value chain faster than everyone could handle, and a lot of Americans got left behind. China is moving up the value chain also, they are being forced to by their demographics, and they are investing heavily in the change ATM (just like they started investing heavily in green energy 10 years ago) so I don't think they will make the same mistake as the Americans are making right now.

rayiner 2y ago
A lot of our “value chain” is bullshit. If and when China becomes twice as big an economy as the US, much of our “edge” in marketing, finance, and services isn’t going to mean squat. E.g. how much “GDP” will evaporate overnight when American universities no longer have the cachet that comes along with being the best universities in America?
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  > A lot of our “value chain” is bullshit. No it isn't, productivity has to increase, that's why we constantly get rid of jobs that do not provide much value. People want more money, and the only way we get there is with more productivity (doing jobs that make more money). > If and when China becomes twice as big an economy as the US, much of our “edge” in marketing, finance, and services isn’t going to mean squat. China gets to 2X our GDP by doing what we basically did in the 90s, so you are definitely right! They will have their own marketing, financing and services. The only difference is that they won't need to outsource manufacturing to China (well, they are outsourcing it a bit now, but also investing tons in automation). > E.g. how much “GDP” will evaporate overnight when American universities no longer have the cachet that comes along with being the best universities in America? I don't know what you are ranting about, but I get the feeling that if I did know what you were saying here I would probably agree with you.
  - rayiner 2y ago
    > No it isn't, productivity has to increase, that's why we constantly get rid of jobs that do not provide much value. Our measures of “value” are wrong. > I don't know what you are ranting about My point is that a lot of what we think of as “higher value” activities are actually derivative of and downstream of our industrial supremacy. As China takes up that mantle, the higher value activities will go along with it. E.g., how long do we expect the US to do the cutting edge nuclear power and weapons research when China is the one building all the nuclear power plants? I mean look at the path dependency that led to Silicon Valley. Why did the software revolution happen in the same place we were building the microchips?
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      We basically agree then: as China takes up higher value activities, they won't need those activities from the US anymore. Also, France is the cutting edge designer of nuclear power plants these days. > Why did the software revolution happen in the same place we were building the microchips? Hardware people becoming software people was extremely common back then, and still is today (EEs can make more coding than using their degree directly). Now we have the opposite problem (we don't have enough hardware people because software sucked all the oxygen out of the room) and China has less of it (although increasingly...they are repeating history as well). If anything, this just backs up my point in how higher value activities de-emphasize manufacturing (even super high end manufacturing as in semiconductors). You can replace perceived value with actual value if you don't agree with the value judgement calls that were made, which is entirely reasonable.
      - WillPostForFood 2y ago
        "we don't have enough hardware people because software sucked all the oxygen out of the room" How much is this exacerbated by the lack of domestic hardware manufacturing in the US for the hardware people? Seems like software boom starting in the late 1990's happened as China came online for hardware outsourcing. Not suggesting a causal relationship there, just complementary effects.
kilolima 2y ago
Did they hire those software engineers along with their unions? Not quite. It's all about labor and getting rid of the class that used to (and could have) threatened the elites.
- consp 2y ago
  SE will one day realize they are as screwed as the average worker and unionize in some way. The endless money pits are not for every SE, even today the majority does not work for the creme-de-creme of well paying companies. While specialists and smooth talkers might profit from the current model, as always is the case, most won't.
  - briandear 2y ago
    Then when they unionize, all the software jobs will head to cheaper locales. Unless of course you’re suggesting that the U.S. use tariffs on labor to prevent that?
    - SiempreViernes 2y ago
      > Then [...] all the software jobs will head to cheaper locales Dude, how have you completed missed the ongoing push for AI to replace developers?
      - 9rx 2y ago
        I only see a push for AI to produce more developers. How could AI, as we know it today, even replace developers? More developers isn't at odds with the previous comment. That is how you can more easily push the jobs to low cost areas! When 张三 in rural China is given his first computer he can jump right into being a programmer too. Thus you can give him the job instead of a high priced developer in America.
        fragmede 2y ago
        I want to build a thing. Before AI it would take 1 year and a team of five developers. Now with ai, it's gonna take you 6 months and 3 developers. Those two developers didn't get jobs because of AI.