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I'm bouncing between this and thinking that "this time it's different". You can reverse tariffs policy, but a lost trust is very hard to repair.

giantg2 2y ago
If it's reversed faster than alternatives are in place, then it won't matter too much if the trust is there because what alternative is there? The logistics and stuff take time to change. If it persists long enough, then the trust piece will be more of a factor.
- energy123 2y ago
  The alternative is to not spend and not invest and not hire because confidence is down and policy uncertainty is high, leading to a recession.
  - giantg2 2y ago
    Mone of that really has to do with the tariffs. Consumers will continue to buy what they can afford. This won't reduce that much, probably by about 5% is my guess based on multiple factors. Most healthy companies will continue to operate just fine. Market confidence is down, but it's been fragile due to it's overvalued state for a while. Aside from tariffs, policy outlook is very business friendly. This mostly a market overreaction or correction from being overvalued if we look at the past. This Chinese trade war has been going on since Trumps first term (at least). The rates on the top import/exports have been around or over 25% for a while. It's also interesting how much China is hurting itself with pork. The Chinese own Smithfield and are a huge importer of pork from the US, yet they slapped an 80% tarriff on it?
readthenotes1 2y ago
The lost trust won't affect the price of eggs or Honda Accord in Waukeekee
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- viraptor 2y ago
  It will affect if people buy a Honda they don't 100% need right now, or keep emergency money in case things go worse. Which on larger scale will still affect prices of everything.
Animats 2y ago
> You can reverse tariffs policy, but lost trust is very hard to repair. Indeed. That's especially true on the NATO side. This is a historical event on the scale of the breakup of the USSR.
- timr 2y ago
  > Indeed. That's especially true on the NATO side. This is a historical event on the scale of the breakup of the USSR. Exaggeration isn't helpful. Whatever "this" is, you can't possibly make an assessment of that kind until years after the fact. In March 2020, people were convincing themselves that the global economy was flying straight into the ground, but people who didn't lose their minds made a lot of money, quickly. IMO, there was a better case for that panic, given the context (they were partly right! the lockdown stuff was incredibly costly!), than there is that this particular spasm is meaningful. Only time will tell.
  - ls612 2y ago
    In many ways the spasms we have seen globally the last few years are all downstream of the lockdowns and their damage.
  - motorest 2y ago
    > Exaggeration isn't helpful. Whatever "this" is, you can't possibly make an assessment of that kind until years after the fact. I don't think you fully grasp the gravity of Trump's actions. For the first time in its history, NATO is excluding the US from arms purchase programs. This takes place at a time where the EU is scrambling to prepare for a war with Russia, which is also caused by Trump's action of abandoning it's allies, The Trump administration is also heavily invested in annexation rhetoric targeting multiple NATO members. Then there's the whole tarrif absurdity. These sequence of moronic steps individually represent world-changing events. They all took place in a couple of months into the Trump administration's takeover. This goes well beyond the suspicion that Trump is a Russian stooge. This changes the way the world was structured after WW2. The fall of the soviet union might even have a smaller impact in world history.
sentientslug 2y ago
Every time this happens people say it’s different. See: COVID pandemic. And we know the V shaped recovery that came after that. Of course that shouldn’t be interpreted as a predictor of what’s to come next (because it’s not), my only point is to say that the same rhetoric pops up frequently during downtowns since forever.
- chewbacha 2y ago
  At the time, there was trust that the government wanted to assist the recovery. They have lost the benefit of the doubt. This actually feels malicious. With Covid, recovery came as Covid was removed. With Trump, recovery can come with…
- viraptor 2y ago
  After the initial COVID phases nothing major really changed long term as far as the world balance goes though. Everyone got affected, everyone started recovering. Things may have been uneven, but not like now, right?
  - pton_xd 2y ago
    That's his point. In the moment, everyone panics and thinks XYZ catastrophe is the end of the world as we know it. In hindsight, it never is. But who knows?! Maybe this is the time...
    - roenxi 2y ago
      > In hindsight, it never is. Up until WWII happened I doubt many people would have believed that sort of death and destruction was right around the corner. They'd just had WWI and weren't expecting that settling the unsettled business from that would be around 3x worse, break the European colonialists and ... I don't know how wiped out Jews in Europe were, but it was a painful experience although I assume some survived. The property damage was also extensive. High tariffs isn't going to be the end of the world & this particular stage of crisis doesn't look very important. But the overall geopolitical crisis we're in as everyone realigns certainly could end the world as we know it. Both in the literal and worst case senses. Few went in to WWII chuckling and saying that they were going to break their own power permanently, but that is what a lot of participants ended up doing.
_bin_ 2y ago
Did anybody actually “trust” other countries to start with? I’m reminded of the cynical yet accurate quote that nations don’t have friends, they have interests. I expect the American feds to pursue the best interests of Americans (though these policies aren’t in those best interests, it seems admin doesn’t know?) and foreign nations to do the same. This point is especially hollow because it is true that many countries have maintained asymmetric tariffs on us. Trade deficit aside, we shouldn’t let others collect a larger % of their imports from America than we collect of our imports from them. I’d take their cries of “lost trust” more seriously if they hadn’t shown with their actions they will pursue their own advantage too.
- Aurornis 2y ago
  The “reciprocal” tariffs are nothing close to reciprocal. I hope you know by now that the numbers Trump presented were not actual tariff numbers that other countries put on us. The trust issue is domestic, too. Businesses just got slapped with the largest tax increase in history at home. Pointing fingers at other countries is a distraction. It’s ridiculous to think that this will encourage companies to start building factories here when even the raw materials are now heavily taxed on their way in to the country. Any sane company is going to pause US factory investment until there is some clarity and predictability.
  - _bin_ 2y ago
    I think I miscommunicated my support for some trade policy change as support for Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs. Here are things I think we should fix: - America and Hypotheticalstan each export $1T to each other with a bunch of tariffs on various things. America raises $50B in tariff revenue on Hypotheticalstan’s imports while Hypotheticalstan raises $100B on American imports. - America doesn’t make enough defense-critical stuff: steel, solar panels, chips, aluminum, rare earths, etc. - America has a ~$918B trade deficit. Things I do not care about: - Vietnam makes our Nikes. - We have a trade deficit with specifically Vietnam.
- d1sxeyes 2y ago
  > Trade deficit aside, we shouldn’t let others collect a larger % of their imports from America than we collect of our imports from them. Why should you care how much another country charges its residents to import stuff from the US? Just sell at the price you want to sell at and who cares what goes on after your goods land.
Aurornis 2y ago
The closest modern analogy might be Liz Truss’ short tenure in the U.K. Her actions paled in comparison to this absurd tariff situation but the only way to resolve it and restore confidence was for her to resign. The problem in the US is that the tariff situations is bonkers insane, was clearly not thought out at all, and the person controlling the strings is talking about ways to run for a 3rd term instead of considering resignation. This is a political crisis. The best we can hope for is that the Senate pushes forward with attempts to reign in the president’s tariff powers and the House actually goes along, which is unlikely right now. I think we’re going to start seeing Republicans test the waters with breaking rank with Trump soon though.
- deltaburnt 2y ago
  > I think we’re going to start seeing Republicans test the waters with breaking rank with Trump soon though. Been hearing that weekly for 8 years. If everything before this didn't trigger significant action, I doubt this will.
  - peteforde 2y ago
    This. When people this committed to crazy are shown [more] evidence, they just double down.
    - JohnnyMarcone 2y ago
      If people start turning against Trump, Congress will follow. Look what happened after the 2022 terms. Dems over performed and everyone immediately tried to make Ron Desantis a thing. Sharks will always be in the water around Trump waiting for him to slip. The question is, will Independents(maybe even some of the base) shift hard away when they start feeling the pain of the tariffs.
    - wellackshually 2y ago
      [flagged]
- everybodyknows 2y ago
j4coh 2y ago
I really doubt they will reverse things. It will take impeachment or a new election before they admit they were wrong.
- steve_adams_86 2y ago
  I strongly suspect they still wouldn’t admit they were wrong.
autoexec 2y ago
Loss of trust and finding other sources for the things they used to buy from the US, perhaps even producing those things themselves and becoming a new competitor the US didn't have before.

giantg2 2y ago

If it's reversed faster than alternatives are in place, then it won't matter too much if the trust is there because what alternative is there? The logistics and stuff take time to change. If it persists long enough, then the trust piece will be more of a factor.

energy123 2y ago
The alternative is to not spend and not invest and not hire because confidence is down and policy uncertainty is high, leading to a recession.
- giantg2 2y ago
  Mone of that really has to do with the tariffs. Consumers will continue to buy what they can afford. This won't reduce that much, probably by about 5% is my guess based on multiple factors. Most healthy companies will continue to operate just fine. Market confidence is down, but it's been fragile due to it's overvalued state for a while. Aside from tariffs, policy outlook is very business friendly. This mostly a market overreaction or correction from being overvalued if we look at the past. This Chinese trade war has been going on since Trumps first term (at least). The rates on the top import/exports have been around or over 25% for a while. It's also interesting how much China is hurting itself with pork. The Chinese own Smithfield and are a huge importer of pork from the US, yet they slapped an 80% tarriff on it?

readthenotes1 2y ago

The lost trust won't affect the price of eggs or Honda Accord in Waukeekee

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
viraptor 2y ago
It will affect if people buy a Honda they don't 100% need right now, or keep emergency money in case things go worse. Which on larger scale will still affect prices of everything.

Animats 2y ago

> You can reverse tariffs policy, but lost trust is very hard to repair. Indeed. That's especially true on the NATO side. This is a historical event on the scale of the breakup of the USSR.

timr 2y ago
> Indeed. That's especially true on the NATO side. This is a historical event on the scale of the breakup of the USSR. Exaggeration isn't helpful. Whatever "this" is, you can't possibly make an assessment of that kind until years after the fact. In March 2020, people were convincing themselves that the global economy was flying straight into the ground, but people who didn't lose their minds made a lot of money, quickly. IMO, there was a better case for that panic, given the context (they were partly right! the lockdown stuff was incredibly costly!), than there is that this particular spasm is meaningful. Only time will tell.
- ls612 2y ago
  In many ways the spasms we have seen globally the last few years are all downstream of the lockdowns and their damage.
- motorest 2y ago
  > Exaggeration isn't helpful. Whatever "this" is, you can't possibly make an assessment of that kind until years after the fact. I don't think you fully grasp the gravity of Trump's actions. For the first time in its history, NATO is excluding the US from arms purchase programs. This takes place at a time where the EU is scrambling to prepare for a war with Russia, which is also caused by Trump's action of abandoning it's allies, The Trump administration is also heavily invested in annexation rhetoric targeting multiple NATO members. Then there's the whole tarrif absurdity. These sequence of moronic steps individually represent world-changing events. They all took place in a couple of months into the Trump administration's takeover. This goes well beyond the suspicion that Trump is a Russian stooge. This changes the way the world was structured after WW2. The fall of the soviet union might even have a smaller impact in world history.

sentientslug 2y ago

Every time this happens people say it’s different. See: COVID pandemic. And we know the V shaped recovery that came after that. Of course that shouldn’t be interpreted as a predictor of what’s to come next (because it’s not), my only point is to say that the same rhetoric pops up frequently during downtowns since forever.

chewbacha 2y ago
At the time, there was trust that the government wanted to assist the recovery. They have lost the benefit of the doubt. This actually feels malicious. With Covid, recovery came as Covid was removed. With Trump, recovery can come with…
viraptor 2y ago
After the initial COVID phases nothing major really changed long term as far as the world balance goes though. Everyone got affected, everyone started recovering. Things may have been uneven, but not like now, right?
- pton_xd 2y ago
  That's his point. In the moment, everyone panics and thinks XYZ catastrophe is the end of the world as we know it. In hindsight, it never is. But who knows?! Maybe this is the time...
  - roenxi 2y ago
    > In hindsight, it never is. Up until WWII happened I doubt many people would have believed that sort of death and destruction was right around the corner. They'd just had WWI and weren't expecting that settling the unsettled business from that would be around 3x worse, break the European colonialists and ... I don't know how wiped out Jews in Europe were, but it was a painful experience although I assume some survived. The property damage was also extensive. High tariffs isn't going to be the end of the world & this particular stage of crisis doesn't look very important. But the overall geopolitical crisis we're in as everyone realigns certainly could end the world as we know it. Both in the literal and worst case senses. Few went in to WWII chuckling and saying that they were going to break their own power permanently, but that is what a lot of participants ended up doing.

_bin_ 2y ago

Did anybody actually “trust” other countries to start with? I’m reminded of the cynical yet accurate quote that nations don’t have friends, they have interests. I expect the American feds to pursue the best interests of Americans (though these policies aren’t in those best interests, it seems admin doesn’t know?) and foreign nations to do the same. This point is especially hollow because it is true that many countries have maintained asymmetric tariffs on us. Trade deficit aside, we shouldn’t let others collect a larger % of their imports from America than we collect of our imports from them. I’d take their cries of “lost trust” more seriously if they hadn’t shown with their actions they will pursue their own advantage too.

Aurornis 2y ago
The “reciprocal” tariffs are nothing close to reciprocal. I hope you know by now that the numbers Trump presented were not actual tariff numbers that other countries put on us. The trust issue is domestic, too. Businesses just got slapped with the largest tax increase in history at home. Pointing fingers at other countries is a distraction. It’s ridiculous to think that this will encourage companies to start building factories here when even the raw materials are now heavily taxed on their way in to the country. Any sane company is going to pause US factory investment until there is some clarity and predictability.
- _bin_ 2y ago
  I think I miscommunicated my support for some trade policy change as support for Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs. Here are things I think we should fix: - America and Hypotheticalstan each export $1T to each other with a bunch of tariffs on various things. America raises $50B in tariff revenue on Hypotheticalstan’s imports while Hypotheticalstan raises $100B on American imports. - America doesn’t make enough defense-critical stuff: steel, solar panels, chips, aluminum, rare earths, etc. - America has a ~$918B trade deficit. Things I do not care about: - Vietnam makes our Nikes. - We have a trade deficit with specifically Vietnam.
d1sxeyes 2y ago
> Trade deficit aside, we shouldn’t let others collect a larger % of their imports from America than we collect of our imports from them. Why should you care how much another country charges its residents to import stuff from the US? Just sell at the price you want to sell at and who cares what goes on after your goods land.

Aurornis 2y ago

The closest modern analogy might be Liz Truss’ short tenure in the U.K. Her actions paled in comparison to this absurd tariff situation but the only way to resolve it and restore confidence was for her to resign. The problem in the US is that the tariff situations is bonkers insane, was clearly not thought out at all, and the person controlling the strings is talking about ways to run for a 3rd term instead of considering resignation. This is a political crisis. The best we can hope for is that the Senate pushes forward with attempts to reign in the president’s tariff powers and the House actually goes along, which is unlikely right now. I think we’re going to start seeing Republicans test the waters with breaking rank with Trump soon though.

deltaburnt 2y ago
> I think we’re going to start seeing Republicans test the waters with breaking rank with Trump soon though. Been hearing that weekly for 8 years. If everything before this didn't trigger significant action, I doubt this will.
- peteforde 2y ago
  This. When people this committed to crazy are shown [more] evidence, they just double down.
  - JohnnyMarcone 2y ago
    If people start turning against Trump, Congress will follow. Look what happened after the 2022 terms. Dems over performed and everyone immediately tried to make Ron Desantis a thing. Sharks will always be in the water around Trump waiting for him to slip. The question is, will Independents(maybe even some of the base) shift hard away when they start feeling the pain of the tariffs.
  - wellackshually 2y ago
    [flagged]
everybodyknows 2y ago

j4coh 2y ago

I really doubt they will reverse things. It will take impeachment or a new election before they admit they were wrong.

steve_adams_86 2y ago
I strongly suspect they still wouldn’t admit they were wrong.

autoexec 2y ago

Loss of trust and finding other sources for the things they used to buy from the US, perhaps even producing those things themselves and becoming a new competitor the US didn't have before.