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Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

owebmaster 2y ago
> I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back The pump'n'dump scheme against Ukraine will forever change how small countries see the US support for democracy, even if it changes back to the previous status-quo.
- gonzo41 2y ago
  The US treatment of Ukraine is having a massive impact on how everyone thinks about security. All the US had to do was supply it's old weapons to Ukraine whilst replenishing it's stock (creating jobs in America) and things would have been fine. Now we're all in a world were Europeans are openly talking about developing nuclear weapons. Taiwan is totally on it's own, and Greenland is worried about being annexed. There's real trouble coming.
  - 8note 2y ago
    canada is also worried about being annexed, and that nato partners wont heed the call to article 5 against a US invasion and naval blockade
  - dboreham 2y ago
    Quick note that Europeans have had nuclear weapons since 1945.
    - ttyprintk 2y ago
      Europe is openly talking about its own cooperative nuclear umbrella. Trump is correct that he deserves 100% of credit/blame for that, taking the heat for Putin.
      - petre 2y ago
        It will be done by your friends the French, even if not to everyone. Poland is very keen on it. In fact they are reopening and massively developing an airbase that will be hosting nukes near Colmar, 200 km from the German border. That's a 6 minute flight for a Dassault Rafale.
  - refurb 2y ago
    It sounds like you’re arguing for the military industrial complex. “The Ukraine war is great because it creates US jobs through weapons manufacturing. Yeah, we might get our hair a bit mussed with the hundreds of thousands of deaths, but net-net it’s a win!”
  - CapricornNoble 2y ago
    > All the US had to do was supply it's old weapons to Ukraine whilst replenishing it's stock (creating jobs in America) and things would have been fine. Well, no, it's not fine, partly because we can't replenish our stocks fast enough. Ukraine is consuming nearly the entire planet's production capacity of Patriot missiles, eating enough of our ATACMS stockpile that it makes Combatant Commanders nervous, and more. To say nothing of the argument "supply Ukraine for as long as it takes, even if that means indefinitely" never made any sense; actions taken without a clear, achievable end goal in mind are just a waste of resources. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/dearth-of-weapons-in-america-u-s-admiral-says-israel-ukraine-consumed-most-of-u-s-patriot-missiles-will-hurt-readiness-to-take-on-china/articleshow/115532854.cms?from=mdr https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/d... https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/us-defence-industrial-base-can-no-longer-reliably-supply-europe https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/us-defence-industrial-base-...
- throwaway5752 2y ago
  In the end, countries are nuanced enough to understand American political dynamics. They see Orbans, they see Le Pens, they see Trump, and they know what is behind it. I am quite sure that Ukraine did not expect anything else from the Trump faction of the Republican party. His victory was not unlikely and he is a simple creature. If different factions win, they will be eager to work with America again, with less trust and reliance. Realistically, it is for the best if countries are resilient to US failure. It will make Americans generationally poorer, but the world will be better off for it.
  - MegaButts 2y ago
    > In the end, countries are nuanced enough to understand American political dynamics. Is that why Ukraine agreed to the Budapest Memorandum?
  - jdeow 2y ago
    You are just assuming Attention craving/seeking Trump types don't exist in every country in the world. If Trump and the rest of his podcasting/influencer buffoon class, can rise to power in the US riding on what is valued by Attention Economics, then the same can repeat in every country in the world. The root cause is not changing cause the Algos have created a game that favor those who love Attention and will do whatever it takes to get it and keep it.
  - elevaet 2y ago
    > It will make Americans generationally poorer, but the world will be better off for it. The world will become more resilient, but this could easily be a lose-lose for USA and other democratic nations.
walterbell 2y ago
https://www.retailcouncil.org/u-s-hits-185-nations-with-tariffs-canada-mexico-exempt-under-usmca/ https://www.retailcouncil.org/u-s-hits-185-nations-with-tari... > No new tariffs were announced for Canada. Canada and Mexico’s exemption for USMCA/CUSMA qualifying goods was maintained. However, 25% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant Canadian goods, Canadian steel and aluminum, Canadian autos and parts, and the 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports remain in place.. there are signs that negotiators on both sides are trying to steer Canada-US trade to a more productive process of an expedited renegotiation of the Canada-US-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA). More context on US trade policy: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350
- graeme 2y ago
  So the tariffs were calculated based on dividing goods trade deficit by overall goods trade. If you run that formula for Canada and Mexico, the number would be LOWER than the tariffs already imposed. So they had to leave Canada and Mexico off to keep things looking consistent. You can confirm here from USTR stats: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada#:~:text=Canada%20Trade%20Summary&text=U.S.%20goods%20imports%20from%20Canada,(%24926.9%20million)%20over%202023. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada#:~:text=C...
  - walterbell 2y ago
    https://www.ft.com/content/96bc1b74-14dd-47ab-8bbd-1add97a2af09 https://www.ft.com/content/96bc1b74-14dd-47ab-8bbd-1add97a2a... > both leaders claim their approaches have helped them this week avoid what Trump calls “liberation day” tariffs.. Mexican officials on Thursday said the strategy had borne fruit and they would focus on getting an even better deal. Economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said: “It's a great achievement, I’d say, from the point of view of where we started not long ago that there would be no exemptions.” .. Mexico remains upbeat, with [President] Sheinbaum on Thursday trying to lure companies to invest in USMCA-compliant production in the country. “We think that with the dialogue we’ve established there are the conditions to have a better deal,” she said.
    - 2y ago
cycomanic 2y ago
I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/government to engage in tactics (e.g. bullying, industrial espionage even against partners...) that they are enraged if others (E.g. China) do it. Europeans seem to be much more susceptible to an "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" argument.
- Nathanba 2y ago
  >Trust is not important if they are afraid of you I understand that argument I've never seen it spelled out by anyone other than me. I only brought it up as a last effort to explain the possible thinking behind these actions. It still won't make sense because even if you believe that you are the top dog and you can effortlessly bully others then you'd have to realize that you won't be the top dog in every situation all the time everywhere at the same time. There will be many instances where others who previously leaned your way for free will now look to get paid for leaning your way.
- sebmellen 2y ago
  Devil’s advocate: If you (the US) massively subsidize the world order through your financial markets, military defense, and foreign aid, it’s only fair that you get to take advantage of your position. Historically, the US has done this at the expense of its working class. Now there is a populist feeling that we are owed a long due “payback” for our generosity. The Bernie/AOC left believe the payback is owed by our elites, who enriched themselves by austerity and hollowing out our industrial base. The Trump/MAGA right believe the payback is owed by other countries — freeloaders that have benefited from our technology, military defense, and foreign aid while simultaneously being net exporters to the US. To the latter crowd, the kind of “bullying” behavior you describe is actually the equivalent of a gentle giant who never stood up for himself finally deciding that he won’t take any more shit. Edit: To any downvoters, please comment with where you think I’m wrong. I’m not defending any policy, just providing what I believe is an accurate representation of the populist American mindset described in the parent comment.
brookst 2y ago
To the extent markets recover it will be because there’s confidence that exposure to bizarre and unpredictable behavior from the US has been reduced. EU / China trade pacts, China / California, Mexico / EU. People have to patch around the mistaken over-reliance on sanity from the US. It’ll happen, not sure if it’ll take a few weeks or a few years though.
- ttyprintk 2y ago
  Oh, high quality will recover. Biotech will recover. It’s possible Walmart stock doesn’t recover. Auto makers will be interesting.
ModernMech 2y ago
The people who voted for these policies have to feel a sufficient amount of pain from them to be sure they won't just vote for them again as soon as they get the chance. Most people who voted for Trump in 2024 would vote for him again if he ran for a 3rd term. Nobody can consider America a reliable partner until that isn't a laughable possibility again.
petre 2y ago
If you remember he blew up TTIP, TTP/TTPA during his first mandate.

owebmaster 2y ago

> I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back The pump'n'dump scheme against Ukraine will forever change how small countries see the US support for democracy, even if it changes back to the previous status-quo.

gonzo41 2y ago
The US treatment of Ukraine is having a massive impact on how everyone thinks about security. All the US had to do was supply it's old weapons to Ukraine whilst replenishing it's stock (creating jobs in America) and things would have been fine. Now we're all in a world were Europeans are openly talking about developing nuclear weapons. Taiwan is totally on it's own, and Greenland is worried about being annexed. There's real trouble coming.
- 8note 2y ago
  canada is also worried about being annexed, and that nato partners wont heed the call to article 5 against a US invasion and naval blockade
- dboreham 2y ago
  Quick note that Europeans have had nuclear weapons since 1945.
  - ttyprintk 2y ago
    Europe is openly talking about its own cooperative nuclear umbrella. Trump is correct that he deserves 100% of credit/blame for that, taking the heat for Putin.
    - petre 2y ago
      It will be done by your friends the French, even if not to everyone. Poland is very keen on it. In fact they are reopening and massively developing an airbase that will be hosting nukes near Colmar, 200 km from the German border. That's a 6 minute flight for a Dassault Rafale.
- refurb 2y ago
  It sounds like you’re arguing for the military industrial complex. “The Ukraine war is great because it creates US jobs through weapons manufacturing. Yeah, we might get our hair a bit mussed with the hundreds of thousands of deaths, but net-net it’s a win!”
- CapricornNoble 2y ago
  > All the US had to do was supply it's old weapons to Ukraine whilst replenishing it's stock (creating jobs in America) and things would have been fine. Well, no, it's not fine, partly because we can't replenish our stocks fast enough. Ukraine is consuming nearly the entire planet's production capacity of Patriot missiles, eating enough of our ATACMS stockpile that it makes Combatant Commanders nervous, and more. To say nothing of the argument "supply Ukraine for as long as it takes, even if that means indefinitely" never made any sense; actions taken without a clear, achievable end goal in mind are just a waste of resources. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/dearth-of-weapons-in-america-u-s-admiral-says-israel-ukraine-consumed-most-of-u-s-patriot-missiles-will-hurt-readiness-to-take-on-china/articleshow/115532854.cms?from=mdr https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/d... https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/us-defence-industrial-base-can-no-longer-reliably-supply-europe https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/us-defence-industrial-base-...
throwaway5752 2y ago
In the end, countries are nuanced enough to understand American political dynamics. They see Orbans, they see Le Pens, they see Trump, and they know what is behind it. I am quite sure that Ukraine did not expect anything else from the Trump faction of the Republican party. His victory was not unlikely and he is a simple creature. If different factions win, they will be eager to work with America again, with less trust and reliance. Realistically, it is for the best if countries are resilient to US failure. It will make Americans generationally poorer, but the world will be better off for it.
- MegaButts 2y ago
  > In the end, countries are nuanced enough to understand American political dynamics. Is that why Ukraine agreed to the Budapest Memorandum?
- jdeow 2y ago
  You are just assuming Attention craving/seeking Trump types don't exist in every country in the world. If Trump and the rest of his podcasting/influencer buffoon class, can rise to power in the US riding on what is valued by Attention Economics, then the same can repeat in every country in the world. The root cause is not changing cause the Algos have created a game that favor those who love Attention and will do whatever it takes to get it and keep it.
- elevaet 2y ago
  > It will make Americans generationally poorer, but the world will be better off for it. The world will become more resilient, but this could easily be a lose-lose for USA and other democratic nations.

walterbell 2y ago

https://www.retailcouncil.org/u-s-hits-185-nations-with-tariffs-canada-mexico-exempt-under-usmca/ https://www.retailcouncil.org/u-s-hits-185-nations-with-tari... > No new tariffs were announced for Canada. Canada and Mexico’s exemption for USMCA/CUSMA qualifying goods was maintained. However, 25% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant Canadian goods, Canadian steel and aluminum, Canadian autos and parts, and the 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports remain in place.. there are signs that negotiators on both sides are trying to steer Canada-US trade to a more productive process of an expedited renegotiation of the Canada-US-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA). More context on US trade policy: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350

graeme 2y ago
So the tariffs were calculated based on dividing goods trade deficit by overall goods trade. If you run that formula for Canada and Mexico, the number would be LOWER than the tariffs already imposed. So they had to leave Canada and Mexico off to keep things looking consistent. You can confirm here from USTR stats: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada#:~:text=Canada%20Trade%20Summary&text=U.S.%20goods%20imports%20from%20Canada,(%24926.9%20million)%20over%202023. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada#:~:text=C...
- walterbell 2y ago
  https://www.ft.com/content/96bc1b74-14dd-47ab-8bbd-1add97a2af09 https://www.ft.com/content/96bc1b74-14dd-47ab-8bbd-1add97a2a... > both leaders claim their approaches have helped them this week avoid what Trump calls “liberation day” tariffs.. Mexican officials on Thursday said the strategy had borne fruit and they would focus on getting an even better deal. Economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said: “It's a great achievement, I’d say, from the point of view of where we started not long ago that there would be no exemptions.” .. Mexico remains upbeat, with [President] Sheinbaum on Thursday trying to lure companies to invest in USMCA-compliant production in the country. “We think that with the dialogue we’ve established there are the conditions to have a better deal,” she said.
  - 2y ago

cycomanic 2y ago

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/government to engage in tactics (e.g. bullying, industrial espionage even against partners...) that they are enraged if others (E.g. China) do it. Europeans seem to be much more susceptible to an "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" argument.

Nathanba 2y ago
>Trust is not important if they are afraid of you I understand that argument I've never seen it spelled out by anyone other than me. I only brought it up as a last effort to explain the possible thinking behind these actions. It still won't make sense because even if you believe that you are the top dog and you can effortlessly bully others then you'd have to realize that you won't be the top dog in every situation all the time everywhere at the same time. There will be many instances where others who previously leaned your way for free will now look to get paid for leaning your way.
sebmellen 2y ago
Devil’s advocate: If you (the US) massively subsidize the world order through your financial markets, military defense, and foreign aid, it’s only fair that you get to take advantage of your position. Historically, the US has done this at the expense of its working class. Now there is a populist feeling that we are owed a long due “payback” for our generosity. The Bernie/AOC left believe the payback is owed by our elites, who enriched themselves by austerity and hollowing out our industrial base. The Trump/MAGA right believe the payback is owed by other countries — freeloaders that have benefited from our technology, military defense, and foreign aid while simultaneously being net exporters to the US. To the latter crowd, the kind of “bullying” behavior you describe is actually the equivalent of a gentle giant who never stood up for himself finally deciding that he won’t take any more shit. Edit: To any downvoters, please comment with where you think I’m wrong. I’m not defending any policy, just providing what I believe is an accurate representation of the populist American mindset described in the parent comment.

brookst 2y ago

To the extent markets recover it will be because there’s confidence that exposure to bizarre and unpredictable behavior from the US has been reduced. EU / China trade pacts, China / California, Mexico / EU. People have to patch around the mistaken over-reliance on sanity from the US. It’ll happen, not sure if it’ll take a few weeks or a few years though.

ttyprintk 2y ago
Oh, high quality will recover. Biotech will recover. It’s possible Walmart stock doesn’t recover. Auto makers will be interesting.

ModernMech 2y ago

The people who voted for these policies have to feel a sufficient amount of pain from them to be sure they won't just vote for them again as soon as they get the chance. Most people who voted for Trump in 2024 would vote for him again if he ran for a 3rd term. Nobody can consider America a reliable partner until that isn't a laughable possibility again.

petre 2y ago

If you remember he blew up TTIP, TTP/TTPA during his first mandate.