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EU has gas reserves that it does not want to exploit. It's as if it's waiting for something ...

by seydor 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago
They might also be able to rely on Canada ("LNG Canada" export facility starting up currently) in the near future for LNG imports. OgsyedIE's point about using exports to crowd out Russian gas is spot on, you have to drown the global LNG market in cheap gas until Russia fails. US EIA: North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028 - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62984 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62984 - September 3, 2024 France recently (~2 years) discovered a fossil hydrogen reserve (~46 million tons), but that will take time to develop and LNG imports are a potential bridge while also providing time for renewables and storage deployments to continue to push out gas for generation. France strikes Hydrogen gold: World’s largest Hydrogen reserve worth $92 billion could make it a global leader in clean energy revolution - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/france-strikes-hydrogen-gold-worlds-largest-hydrogen-reserve-worth-92-billion-could-make-it-a-global-leader-in-clean-energy-revolution/articleshow/119436964.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/f... - March 24th, 2025 French drillers may have stumbled upon a mammoth hydrogen deposit - https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/09/french-drillers-may-have-stumbled-upon-a-mammoth-hydrogen-deposit/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/09/french-drillers-may-... - September 20th, 2023 [EU] Electricity from renewable sources reaches 47% in 2024 - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20250319-1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/d... - March 19th, 2025
- diggan 2y ago
  > They might also be able to rely on Canada Maybe a dumb question, but wouldn't that have to be transported by ships rather than pipeline in that case, if it's supposed to go all the way to Europe? Sounds a lot more expensive if so.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Not a dumb question. That is what the LNG export market is: cooling fossil gas down cryogenically to liquid natural gas at an export facility, loading onto ships, and unloading at an import terminal (which can float and be repositioned geographically as demand warrants). Is it expensive? The question is: compared to what? For Europe, is it cheaper to lob military hardware at Russia or to pay a premium for gas (vs buying from Gazprom), causing the Russian economy to head towards failure? You're spending the fiat either way. Price is what you pay, optionality is potentially what you get. > [Gazprom] Management misjudged how resolute European capitals would be, according to one of the executives, who said the thinking inside the company was that Europe would quickly be back "begging" for Russian gas supplies to resume. Despite the economic pain of higher energy costs, the EU has not rolled back sanctions. > "We proved to be wrong," the executive said. > U.S. gas exporters quickly moved to replace Russian gas in Europe. The U.S. has become the biggest exporter of LNG to the continent, with supplies tripling since 2021. Europe still buys Russia's sea-borne liquefied natural gas (LNG), but mainly from Gazprom's rivals, Novatek's Yamal LNG plant. > The European Union aims to end its use of Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and its overall gas consumption has decreased in part due to a shift to renewable energy sources. Russia's high-flying gas exporter [Gazprom] crippled as Europe stays away - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazproms-grandeur-fades-europe-abandons-russian-gas-2025-03-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazproms-grandeur-fa... | https://archive.today/3lHKy https://archive.today/3lHKy - March 13, 2025 LNG Market - Comprehensive Study Report & Recent Trends - https://introspectivemarketresearch.com/reports/lng-market/ https://introspectivemarketresearch.com/reports/lng-market/ - August 2024 Economics of Gas Transportation by Pipeline and LNG - https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_... | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 (commodities market participant, no current LNG exposure, think in systems)
    - diggan 2y ago
      > Is it expensive? The question is: compared to what? I mean, compared to pipelines, as mentioned in my comment. AFAIK, we (Spain) get most of our gas from North Africa (Algeria I guess?), so there are more pipelines into Europe, not just from Russia. So I guess I more wanted to know how the costs compared between shipping this cryogenically frozen gas and importing natural gas from say Africa.
FirmwareBurner 2y ago
>EU has gas reserves that it does not want to exploit Because of environmentalism. We want gas, but we also want it from someone willing to tear up his back yard for it, so we can cosplay as being eco-friendly.
- benrutter 2y ago
  That's a pretty cynical take. Setting up oil and gas reserves is a longterm thing, I think it's viable to not want to invest in new climate damaging infrastructure, even if moving off of exist damaging fuel isn't immediate.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > it's viable to not want to invest in new climate damaging infrastructure The EU has flowed like a trillion dollars into LNG infrastructure with longer payback timelines than wells.
  - mhh__ 2y ago
    I do care about the environment but at the moment I'm watching Britain (i.e. home, there are many like it but this one is mine) basically sacrifice itself at the alter of net zero while India proudly announces that it's extracted a _billion_ tons of coal this year. Energy is expensive and unreliable. Why? Well, its either because we aren't doing enough net zero, or because we have an _enormous_ supply-side restriction enforced by the state. Not all of which is due to environmentalism, to be clear. I remember having conversations with "serious" adults when I was 14 about why it was mad to bet the house on wind and solar (Nuclear was very uncool at the time). Lo and behold a decade later, we really, really, need that baseload. There are no energy-poor rich countries. Some are completely happy being poorer and colder but I think something will snap soon in Britain in particular. Blair will have Ed Miliband disapeared soon.
    - pjc50 2y ago
      > (Nuclear was very uncool at the time). Lo and behold a decade later Over that decade, the UK's one nuclear reactor under construction has gone from site approval to .. still not finished. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_... Mind you, quite a lot of the no-progress-on-anything can be blamed on Britain's NIMBYs and press. People want electricity but hate pylons; what can you do?
marcusverus 2y ago
No world leader honestly expects Russia (population 150M, GDP $2T (nominal)) to start a general European war. NATO's combined population is 950M and their combined GDP is $50T. Not even the Russians are that crazy. The people scaremongering about the Russian menace are playing a cynical game designed to drum up support for the war in Ukraine. They understand that people are selfish, and are thus more likely to support the war in Ukraine if they believe that it keeps the Russian bear from their doorstep.
- tim333 2y ago
  Not a full on war maybe buy low level attacks and attempts to subvert the political system to put in pro Russian permanent leaders like Orban, and their attempt to do likewise in Romania. If they did take over Ukraine I'm sure they'd start making opportunistic threats over the Baltics.

EU has gas reserves that it does not want to exploit. It's as if it's waiting for something ...

by seydor 2y ago

EU has gas reserves that it does not want to exploit. It's as if it's waiting for something ...

They might also be able to rely on Canada ("LNG Canada" export facility starting up currently) in the near future for LNG imports. OgsyedIE's point about using exports to crowd out Russian gas is spot on, you have to drown the global LNG market in cheap gas until Russia fails. US EIA: North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028 - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62984 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62984 - September 3, 2024 France recently (~2 years) discovered a fossil hydrogen reserve (~46 million tons), but that will take time to develop and LNG imports are a potential bridge while also providing time for renewables and storage deployments to continue to push out gas for generation. France strikes Hydrogen gold: World’s largest Hydrogen reserve worth $92 billion could make it a global leader in clean energy revolution - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/france-strikes-hydrogen-gold-worlds-largest-hydrogen-reserve-worth-92-billion-could-make-it-a-global-leader-in-clean-energy-revolution/articleshow/119436964.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/f... - March 24th, 2025 French drillers may have stumbled upon a mammoth hydrogen deposit - https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/09/french-drillers-may-have-stumbled-upon-a-mammoth-hydrogen-deposit/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/09/french-drillers-may-... - September 20th, 2023 [EU] Electricity from renewable sources reaches 47% in 2024 - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20250319-1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/d... - March 19th, 2025

diggan 2y ago
> They might also be able to rely on Canada Maybe a dumb question, but wouldn't that have to be transported by ships rather than pipeline in that case, if it's supposed to go all the way to Europe? Sounds a lot more expensive if so.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Not a dumb question. That is what the LNG export market is: cooling fossil gas down cryogenically to liquid natural gas at an export facility, loading onto ships, and unloading at an import terminal (which can float and be repositioned geographically as demand warrants). Is it expensive? The question is: compared to what? For Europe, is it cheaper to lob military hardware at Russia or to pay a premium for gas (vs buying from Gazprom), causing the Russian economy to head towards failure? You're spending the fiat either way. Price is what you pay, optionality is potentially what you get. > [Gazprom] Management misjudged how resolute European capitals would be, according to one of the executives, who said the thinking inside the company was that Europe would quickly be back "begging" for Russian gas supplies to resume. Despite the economic pain of higher energy costs, the EU has not rolled back sanctions. > "We proved to be wrong," the executive said. > U.S. gas exporters quickly moved to replace Russian gas in Europe. The U.S. has become the biggest exporter of LNG to the continent, with supplies tripling since 2021. Europe still buys Russia's sea-borne liquefied natural gas (LNG), but mainly from Gazprom's rivals, Novatek's Yamal LNG plant. > The European Union aims to end its use of Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and its overall gas consumption has decreased in part due to a shift to renewable energy sources. Russia's high-flying gas exporter [Gazprom] crippled as Europe stays away - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazproms-grandeur-fades-europe-abandons-russian-gas-2025-03-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazproms-grandeur-fa... | https://archive.today/3lHKy https://archive.today/3lHKy - March 13, 2025 LNG Market - Comprehensive Study Report & Recent Trends - https://introspectivemarketresearch.com/reports/lng-market/ https://introspectivemarketresearch.com/reports/lng-market/ - August 2024 Economics of Gas Transportation by Pipeline and LNG - https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_... | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 (commodities market participant, no current LNG exposure, think in systems)
  - diggan 2y ago
    > Is it expensive? The question is: compared to what? I mean, compared to pipelines, as mentioned in my comment. AFAIK, we (Spain) get most of our gas from North Africa (Algeria I guess?), so there are more pipelines into Europe, not just from Russia. So I guess I more wanted to know how the costs compared between shipping this cryogenically frozen gas and importing natural gas from say Africa.

FirmwareBurner 2y ago

>EU has gas reserves that it does not want to exploit Because of environmentalism. We want gas, but we also want it from someone willing to tear up his back yard for it, so we can cosplay as being eco-friendly.

benrutter 2y ago
That's a pretty cynical take. Setting up oil and gas reserves is a longterm thing, I think it's viable to not want to invest in new climate damaging infrastructure, even if moving off of exist damaging fuel isn't immediate.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > it's viable to not want to invest in new climate damaging infrastructure The EU has flowed like a trillion dollars into LNG infrastructure with longer payback timelines than wells.
- mhh__ 2y ago
  I do care about the environment but at the moment I'm watching Britain (i.e. home, there are many like it but this one is mine) basically sacrifice itself at the alter of net zero while India proudly announces that it's extracted a _billion_ tons of coal this year. Energy is expensive and unreliable. Why? Well, its either because we aren't doing enough net zero, or because we have an _enormous_ supply-side restriction enforced by the state. Not all of which is due to environmentalism, to be clear. I remember having conversations with "serious" adults when I was 14 about why it was mad to bet the house on wind and solar (Nuclear was very uncool at the time). Lo and behold a decade later, we really, really, need that baseload. There are no energy-poor rich countries. Some are completely happy being poorer and colder but I think something will snap soon in Britain in particular. Blair will have Ed Miliband disapeared soon.
  - pjc50 2y ago
    > (Nuclear was very uncool at the time). Lo and behold a decade later Over that decade, the UK's one nuclear reactor under construction has gone from site approval to .. still not finished. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_... Mind you, quite a lot of the no-progress-on-anything can be blamed on Britain's NIMBYs and press. People want electricity but hate pylons; what can you do?

marcusverus 2y ago

No world leader honestly expects Russia (population 150M, GDP $2T (nominal)) to start a general European war. NATO's combined population is 950M and their combined GDP is $50T. Not even the Russians are that crazy. The people scaremongering about the Russian menace are playing a cynical game designed to drum up support for the war in Ukraine. They understand that people are selfish, and are thus more likely to support the war in Ukraine if they believe that it keeps the Russian bear from their doorstep.

tim333 2y ago
Not a full on war maybe buy low level attacks and attempts to subvert the political system to put in pro Russian permanent leaders like Orban, and their attempt to do likewise in Romania. If they did take over Ukraine I'm sure they'd start making opportunistic threats over the Baltics.