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Thematically investing billions into startup AI frontier models makes sense if you believe in first-to-AGI likely worth a trillion dollars + Investing in secon
by aresant 2y ago
Thematically investing billions into startup AI frontier models makes sense if you believe in first-to-AGI likely worth a trillion dollars +
Investing in second/third place likely valuable at similar scales too
But outside of that MSFTs move indicates that frontier models most valuable current use case - enterprise-level API users - are likely to be significantly commoditized
And likely majority of proceeds will be captured by (a) those with integrated product distribution - MSFT in this case and (b) data center partners for inference and query support
- j45 2y agoFirst to AGI for the big companies? Or for the masses? Computationally, some might have access to it earlier before it’s scalable.
- Retric 2y agoProfit from say 3 years of enterprise AGI exclusivity is unlikely to be worth the investment. It’s moats that capture most value not short term profits.
- alabastervlog 2y agoAt this point, I don’t see much reason to believe the “AGI is imminent and these things are potentially dangerous!” line at all. It looks like it was just Altman doing his thing where he makes shit up to hype whatever he’s selling. Worked great, too. “Oooh, it’s so dangerous, we’re so concerned about safety! Also, you better buy our stuff.”
- only-one1701 2y agoWhat even is AGI? Like, what does it look like? Genuine question.
- taneq 2y agoIt's whatever computers can't do.
- lwansbrough 2y agoAn AI agent with superhuman coherence that can run indefinitely without oversight.
- only-one1701 2y agoPeople sincerely think we're < 5 years away from this?
- jimbokun 2y agoIs there some fundamental constraint keeping it from happening? What cognitive capability do humans have that machines won't be able to replicate in that time frame? Each remaining barrier has been steadily falling.
- saint_yossarian 2y agoCreativity, tastes, desires? All the LLM tech so far still requires a human to actually prompt them.
- bigstrat2003 2y agoWe don't even have AI which can do useful things yet. The LLMs these companies make are fun toys, but not useful tools (yes, I know that hype-prone people are using them as such regardless). It beggars belief that we will go from "it's a fun toy but can't do real work" to "this can do things without even needing human supervision" without a major leap in capabilities.
- lm28469 2y agoShort term betting on AGI from current LLMs is like if you betted on V10 F1s two weeks after we invented the wheel
- oezi 2y agoNot the worst bet to invest in Daimler when they came up with the car. Might not get you to F1, but certainly a good bet they might.