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The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen.

by tnt128 2y ago

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) don’t really need cutting-edge chips, and China has already proven that they don’t need the latest chips to be a significant AI competitor. From the US’s perspective, if a war with China were to break out now, there are only three possible scenarios: 1. China takes Taiwan quickly. In this case, there would be nothing for US to defend, and the US would have to try to take Taiwan back militarily—unlikely to happen. 2. Stalemate. Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot. 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory—an unlikely scenario, but this is the only one where the US would send troops to help defend Taiwan. If the US gets involved at this stage, it secures a sure win, puts a military base on the island, and further cements its role as the protector of taiwan. If you believe the US will or should only act in its own interest, then its interest is to remain the only superpower. Rushing into a war on foreign turf and losing is the quickest way to cede the Asia-Pacific region to China. So, despite what politicians might have you believe, the US is not going to help defend Taiwan, no matter who is in the White House.

mu53 2y ago
The US is not going to help defend Taiwan is a fair thesis, but reciprocally, China is not going to attack Taiwan. Even if Russia gets all of it's demands in the peacemaking process with Ukraine, that war has done permanent and lasting damage to it's economy and global position. For China to attack Taiwan, it would give up any hope of continuing it's healthy trends towards increased economic and political importance. Eventually, Taiwan will re-join China when it is sufficiently strong. It's symbolism as a continued humiliation by the west is more useful as propaganda than an actual military target.
- android521 2y ago
  Unfortunately, dictators don't care much about damage to it's economy as long as they continue to be in power. When they expand and occupy more land, they will look very good in their country's history book which is a huge motivation for dictators. That's the reason why nobody thought Putin would seriously consider invasion but he did. And China will definitely attack Taiwan when the timing is right. Even if a million people dies, Xi would still be considered a hero by most chinese people if he took back Taiwan.
  - re-thc 2y ago
    > Unfortunately, dictators don't care much about damage to it's economy as long as they continue to be in power. It's not a dictator issue. The stock markets have been crashing lately due to "non-dictators". > Even if a million people dies, Xi would still be considered a hero by most chinese people if he took back Taiwan. I doubt most Chinese people care. They have better things to worry about these days e.g. crashing real estate.
    - rob74 2y ago
      It remains to be seen if the person I think you are referring to is a non-dictator. He said he would be a "dictator on day one", and he sure was, but then he somehow forgot to revert to non-dictator mode... Regarding "crashing real estate": actually, most other countries would love to have built enough to bring down real estate prices. Being able to afford a place to live is good for most people! But of course, investing in real estate makes you interested into increasing the value of your property, so you're now incentivized to stop more real estate being built (and also to stop anything else that might decrease the value of your property - thus NIMBYism).
  - qwertox 2y ago
    Russia is out of the AI race. That has been lost and there's no way to reverse it. If Russia wouldn't have started a war, it could have focused on building huge datacenters. It has all the energy it would have needed, now all it can do with it is sell it to China for cheap.
wiseowise 2y ago
> Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot. After 3 years of war they will sell it out to China. Taiwan started the war in the first place, actually.
- _t9ow 2y ago
  > After 3 years With the current administration, perhaps 3 days?
  - UberFly 2y ago
    Just a reminder that the current administration just removed the "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" from the official state policy.
    - _t9ow 2y ago
      Their posturing during peacetime does not translate into showing up during wartime. In fact we have already seen how they cosy up to dictators during wartime. The USA spent decades and decades backing military coups and assassinating democratically elected leaders all over the world under the guise of fighting the Cold War only to suddenly do a U-turn and pander to Putin. Russia has won the Cold War without direct military confrontation with the US. We have also seen how Trump's first administration betrayed the Afghan government by negotiating directly with the Taliban and locking the Afghan government out of the process. He's doing the same now with regards to the war in Ukraine. If you know any Taiwanese people, ask them whether the removal of "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" brings them any comfort in light of how the Trump administration is treating Zelensky and America's NATO allies. Ask them what they think of Trump's expansionist rhetoric about annexing Canada, one of America's most steadfast allies with centuries of friendship. Talk is cheap, and Taiwan as well as America's other Pacific allies are beginning to see through it.
      - 2y ago
darthrupert 2y ago
I think a fourth option is rising its head: USA is becoming so weak geopolitically that being allied with them is becoming an incredibly bad position to be in. Therefore I assume that it's possible that Taiwan will simply choose to integrate with mainland China. This would be a huge change in their sentiments for sure, but these things may happen when large wheels are turning.
- Panoramix 2y ago
  This is the most likely. With allies like the US, the old enemies don't look so bad anymore.
  - nemo44x 2y ago
    [flagged]
rjzzleep 2y ago
Russia has a fraction of the industrial capacity of China. Russia and Ukraine share several borders with multiple NATO countries, and Ukraine had integrated rail networks. Nevertheless Russia took 4 times the size of Taiwan and is taking more day by day. Anyone that understands basic logistics and can read a map knows that this is not winnable. Not only that, but the undersecretary of state is the guy that advocated bombing TSMC. The US took a lot from Taiwan over the last 8 years and not even once did they even consider offering a free trade agreement in return. They made the Taiwan delegation visit a Zoo during the inauguration. Singapore is allied with the west as well, but is taking a more neutral stance and a result have prospered many times over, while Taiwan has gone into total economic stagnation for decades. Where is all this moral posturing coming from? Let's look at reality and facts instead of reddit fantasies.
- echoangle 2y ago
  Are you talking about a different Taiwan? In what world is the economy of Taiwan stagnating for decades? Look at the growth in GDP and GDP per capita here and tell me that’s stagnation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan
  - diamondfist25 2y ago
    Taiwanese here Taiwan Econ has stagnated for decades. Hence the top low birth rate in the world Avg salary of tw is 1.5k usd. The same as 20-30 yrs ago
    - echoangle 2y ago
      Just not true. Average monthly wage: https://www.statista.com/statistics/319845/taiwan-average-monthly-wage/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/319845/taiwan-average-mo... 2000 - 42k NTD 2023 - 58k NTD Converted to USD: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/USD-to-TWD-2000 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo... https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/USD-to-TWD-2023 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo... 2000 - 1270 USD 2023 - 1870 USD
throw84949499 2y ago
Why would China even invide Taiwan? It would destroy "their" infrastructure and kill "their" people! There are much better ways to remove US influence from Taiwan! They can just put sanctions or even blockade Taiwan. And if China puts sanctions on US, and dumps its USD reserves, it can destroy US economy. US is crazy about proxies fighting their "enemies" for them. This type of thinking needs to stop! This is not cold war anymore.
- UberFly 2y ago
  Why would China even invade Taiwan? For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. Because they have their own manifest destiny to reunify their country into what it once was. They don't care about the collateral damage to achieve this in the end.
  - re-thc 2y ago
    > For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. When was this a thing? Britain gave up control "voluntarily". There's been no military conflict whatsoever. Yes, I get that there were changes in law, protests and all sorts of things but those all already happened when Hong Kong was part of China i.e. there was no "invasion".
    - barrenko 2y ago
      ... the same thing will apply later on after the successful "non-invasion" of Taiwan.
      - re-thc 2y ago
        > ... the same thing will apply later on after the successful "non-invasion" of Taiwan. Maybe. I never commented on if the situation is good - just that invasion is the wrong term. Perhaps it should be self-implosion.
        UberFly 2y ago
alephnan 2y ago
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. There are more reasons than chips. First is Chinese nationalism. The Island of Taiwan has been under the control of various Chinese regimes over the centuries. Taking Taiwan is a rejection of the West and can be tied by to the "century of humiliation". America has military posts in Korea, Japan, Phillipines blockading China's entrance to the larger Pacific Ocean. Having Taiwan would allow them to break this up. On Taiwan is also a trove of Chinese art and antiques.
qwertox 2y ago
If China has a seriously good-enough, home-made processor and storage chips, it could gain from a war with Taiwan. If this would mean to cripple the EU's and possibly also US's and to a lesser degree it's own economy through the absence of chips on the market, having that good-enough, home-made processor would be what keeps China afloat, while the rest drowns. And if it could get Taiwan and its chip manufacturing capabilities, it would have won the war with even bigger gains. At least the EU has no way to survive without Taiwan selling them chips.
- jacobp100 2y ago
  The EU makes the machines that make the chips Also in Taiwan these machines are fitted with bombs that will detonate if they’re invaded
  - cookiemonsieur 2y ago
    either way the chips aren't getting made and China is more equipped to survive this than the EU or the US for that matter.
CorrectHorseBat 2y ago
>The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. >From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. You've got it completely backwards. China doesn't want Taiwan because it has the best chip manufacturing in the world. Taiwan has the best chip manufacturing in the world because China wants to invade them and they wanted to give the US a reason to defend them and China a reason not to. War with Taiwan will impact global chip supply even if China can produce their own, which their economy will feel.
- ekianjo 2y ago
  > world because China wants to invade them and they wanted to give the US a reason to defend them and China a reason not to Reverse logic much? If wanting the best electronics know how was just enough to get it, every country would have a TSMC like by now
  - CorrectHorseBat 2y ago
    It's the reason why they did it, not the reason why they succeeded.
    - etiam 2y ago
      It's also not entirely irrelevant for why they succeeded. Existential threat arguably is a much better motivator for making the sacrifices necessary than "wanting".
jjeaff 2y ago
I believe Biden said that the US plan, in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, would be to destroy the chip fabs.
huijzer 2y ago
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.
- cookiemonsieur 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - sealeck 2y ago
    There's only the small issue that the people who live there don't want to be Chinese!
  - fankt 2y ago
    Taiwanese can decide to be more "Chinese" or not via votes. That's the main difference between Taiwan and China.
  - inglor_cz 2y ago
    Is Ireland historically and culturally British? Sort of. Is Czechia historically and culturally German? Sort of. Is Ukraine historically and culturally Russian? Sort of. Is Pakistan historically and culturally Indian? Sort of. Once you have to ignore the wishes of the population and resort to historical arguments, forced reunification becomes a conquest. I certainly wouldn't like my own government to start expansive wars into, say, Silesia, because it used to belong to the Czech crown for 500 years. But I have a say in this. The Chinese population might not.
    - cookiemonsieur 2y ago
      Keep that same energy with israel then.
      - inglor_cz 2y ago
        No problem. Neither of the current populations in Israel should have the right to ethnically cleanse the other one, regardless of historic demography in 1900 AD or 1 AD.
jltsiren 2y ago
You seem to be assuming that the invasion would happen by surprise. That's effectively impossible due to the scale of the operation. Especially because China is full of foreigners and the logistical effort would be impossible to hide. If China decides to invade, everyone would likely know it weeks in advance. They just could not be sure if it's an actual invasion or a massive military exercise that simulates an invasion. And in either case, the US would have plenty of time to decide whether to commit additional carrier strike groups to the region before anything happens.
- m000 2y ago
  What would make carrier strike groups effective in the situation? Given their recent record in the defense of Israel and against the Yemeni Red Sea blockade, one could argue that their era is over. The two most likely outcomes from a carrier strike group engaging with China forces are either a humiliating retreat, or WW3. I think US are smart enough to keep them at bay. Maybe station one in the area for monitoring the situation and assisting evacuation of Americans.
  - jltsiren 2y ago
    You are approaching this from the wrong direction. Air forces, navies, and drones cannot conquer a country. For that, you need ground forces with plenty of heavy equipment. Which can only cross the sea in slow and vulnerable ships. To stop them, you need long-distance firepower with large enough warheads. A carrier strike group is the least vulnerable way of delivering such firepower. The job of a carrier strike group would not be defending vulnerable targets, as in Israel or the Red Sea, but destroying them. Its job might not even be engaging the attacking forces. It could be a reserve force beyond the reach of the initial aerial campaign but still close enough to move in when the actual invasion starts. It could even be a force that remains neutral if the actual invasion never comes (unless China attacks it first).
    - m000 2y ago
      So how will the carrier strike groups be used? Sink Chinese navy ships? That's one step up the escalation ladder. China will reciprocate with sinking some escort ships of the carrier groups, just to make a point and demonstrate their hypersonics. Another step up the escalation ladder. At which point, the carrier groups either back off to de-escalate and avoid losing a capital ship. Or stay there and continue the escalation. As mentioned in another comment, this is projected to stop the Chinese invasion at the cost of losing two carriers. That is, if WW3 doesn't start first.
drodgers 2y ago
Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as more resources move in-theatre). China could secure a more reliable victory by expending most of it's ballistic missile inventory to incapacitate the US bases in Guam and Okinawa, but that would inexorably trigger WWIII.
- cookiemonsieur 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - neuronic 2y ago
    I see you posting anti-Western comments all over the place but amidst your irrational hate you are forgetting history. Originally, the US was the protector of almost all Asian countries from Japanese Imperialism, an axis power allied with Nazi Germany. How are people like you forgetting the rape of Nanjing or the mass killings of civilians by the Japanese across the Philippines and many other places? How are you forgetting Japanese imperial occupation of Taiwan and Korea? How and WHY are you forgetting Japanese Unit 731 [1]? Ironically, the government which fled to Taiwan was ousted by a Communist revolution and chased into exile. How likely do you think is it that this operation, destablilising China, was funded and supported by the communist Soviet Union? Writing that "US is the intruder" in your other comments completely dismisses history and is a ridiculous show of brainwashed anti-Western propaganda spread by Putin, Xi, Trump and such authoritarian dictators. Of course a whole lot more happened after 1945 and American war crimes in Vietnam and elsewhere are part of that. As a European, I am aware of American cultural and military hegemony but I much rather argue with raging capitalists about workers rights compared to raging authoriatarian communists who kill everybody not on their ideological side. Given all that, I am also glad that Europe is now moving to emanciapte from the dependency on American security infrastructure but that doesn't mean NATO should stop or that the US should stop being allies with European nations. Trump gets his goal of spending less for European security but that comes with the loss of hegemonial influence. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731
narrator 2y ago
They are building hundreds of naval destroyers and multiple aircraft carriers to invade a tiny island? Nope. The CCP is prepping to be the world hegemon and take over the world with drone swarms and bioweapons. The Taiwan game is like the "Gulf of America" trick that Trump played. It's a test to see if you're with the CCP or against the CCP diplomatically.
logifail 2y ago
> The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. I recently got (second-hand) one Taiwanese business perspective on this. Background: A friend of mine runs an SME in Europe and one of their key suppliers is in Taiwan. Friend visits Taiwan regularly to maintain the relationship. The following conversation happened around a year ago. My friend gets talking [in private, off the record, after a drink or three] to one of the Taiwanese managers, and the topic turns to China and the invasion scenario. My friend asked if the Taiwanese business had put any thought into what might happen (thinking maybe they've explored the business continuity angles). The Taiwanese guy basically shrugged, and said that if the Chinese were to launch an invasion, "Taiwan is completely * * * *ed", there's nothing the US or anyone else could or would do to be able to prevent that. He apparently didn't seem up tight about, more resigned. No interest in trying to plan any kind of response, because they feel they'd be hit with overwhelming force and would be completely on their own for long enough that it would all be over. My friend was and still is concerned about his business continuity, with his key supplier potentially going offline, so is quietly exploring his options.
dataviz1000 2y ago
My impression after spending month and half in Taiwan last year is that China wouldn't have to fire a single bullet to take over the country. The only thing that would stop China is a US president with the strength to put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island and the mainland. [0] If China needed Taiwan strategically they can surround the island in two days and take it the next. I concluded China is only postering and it is the economic threat with its ASEAN trading partners and the EU that keeps it at bay. The ASML chip fab machines are designed to be remotely disabled so they are not getting chips. [1] There is nothing to be gained from attacking the island and that is the reason it hasn't happened. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis#1996 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis#199... [1] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/21/asml_kill_switch/ https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/21/asml_kill_switch/
UltraSane 2y ago
I've read that in war gaming a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the US can stop it BUT they usually lost TWO aircraft carriers. That would be almost 14,000 dead US soldiers.
olalonde 2y ago
> If you believe the US will or should only act in its own interest, then its interest is to remain the only superpower. Not necessarily. Remaining the only superpower is far from guaranteed, especially looking at current economic and demographic trends. A better strategy might be to lead by example, establishing high standards that will set a benchmark for their successor.
throw0101a 2y ago
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. You are being economically rational. Not all human decisions are done through that lens. "Thucydides found that people go to war out of 'honor, fear, and interest.'” — Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan * https://acoup.blog/2019/12/05/collections-a-trip-through-thucydides-fear-honor-and-interest/ https://acoup.blog/2019/12/05/collections-a-trip-through-thu...
- silvestrov 2y ago
  The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. A better argument would be that when China has "good enough" chips then they don't care about chip production in Taiwan. They will only care about sea access. So if Taiwan ends up as completely destroyed rock, then that is ok for China. They will see it as a much better result than other parts of China breaking away and becoming independent.
  - tyre 2y ago
    > They will only care about sea access. This is not why the CCP cares about Taiwan. And they’ve cared quite a lot since before there were semiconductors.
    - iwontberude 2y ago
      To follow up, Taiwan literally blocks their ability to see and defend against attacks coming from behind the Taiwanese island. It’s about observability and reducing easy beachheads.
      - greedo 2y ago
        It's about exerting political control.
      - Iolaum 2y ago
jppittma 2y ago
Why not destroy the foundries, move all the TSMC employees to the US, rebuild them here (there is no surer investment), and let China have the land?
- elric 2y ago
  For the same reasons that demolishing Gaza, relocating its inhabitants, and letting someone else develop the land is utterly insane. People aren't random machines that can be moved willy-nilly.
- ricardobeat 2y ago
  This lines up perfectly with Trump’s policy on Palestine and Ukraine. “Let them take the land”, who cares about the people?
- sho_hn 2y ago
  One reason is that none of these factories can be built without European ASML machines, and given how the US is doing its absolute best to disrupt its relationship with Europe, maybe it would be time to stop selling them there and consider selling them to China instead.
sam345 2y ago
Because not exercising superpowers is what makes a superpower?
credit_guy 2y ago
> the US is not going to help defend Taiwan, no matter who is in the White House. You are skipping a very important detail in the whole equation. The detail that teleportation was not invented yet. For China to take over Taiwan, they need to somehow place soldiers in Taiwan, and there's 100 miles of sea that complicate that. The war over Taiwan is going to be a complex chess match. US wants to keep being able to prevent China from crossing those 100 miles, and China wants to deny the US the ability to do that. US can perform sea and air patrols, but those are quite expensive, and China can try to make them even more expensive. The war is not going to have a clear starting date, like 24-Feb-2022. It's going to be a gradual increase of the invasion threat posed by China that will force the US to increase its local military posture. A certain type of blockade will happen, but it's going to be intentionally unclear how total the blockade will be. The US and its allies will try a measured response. China will try to create tensions it the US alliance. The US will try some sanctions. China will try to seed disinformation inside the US public debate sphere. Costs will ramp up. Etc, etc. But it's not going to be as simple as the US will look at the problem and will count the beans and call it quits.
127 2y ago
Xi has said that if peaceful unification doesn't happen, it will happen through force. I think that's what he's going to do. People just love to cope around hard topics.
rjmill 2y ago
I wonder if Bacardi might be a better analogue for what TSMC gets from this deal. Bacardi started a distillery in Puerto Rico (iirc, to sell in the US without tariffs) well before the Cuban Revolution. When the Cuban government seized Bacardi's assets, they were able to move everything to their other sites in Puerto Rico and Mexico. As you point out, I highly doubt this deal moves the needle on whether or not US provides military aid to Taiwan. But it does help give them more options if the situation in Taiwan becomes untenable.
ever1337 2y ago
> > If you believe the US will or should only act in its own interest, then its interest is to remain the only superpower. This is the error of non-Marxist 'realism'. The US is not a monolith with a single general interest. It is a class society with its own internal contradictions that play out, for one, internationally. There are legitimately diverging interests when it comes to the role of the United States abroad, and importantly, growing consciousness among classes which in some ways or others, view the institutions of the US' superpower-status as part and parcel of their own oppression domestically.
par 2y ago
or a fourth perspective, you're undermining the importance of TSMC production/output, and the US would indeed go to war over it.
misja111 2y ago
> In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, Trump made clear last year already that in case of a Chinese invasion, the US would not support Taiwan militarily: they would answer with economic sanctions instead.
belter 2y ago
Or just get a compromised President, and you spend just a few billion in joint ventures: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/business/ivanka-trump-china-trademarks.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/business/ivanka-trump-chi...
DanielHB 2y ago
It is hard to drill this in the mind of people who grew up under stable governments, but dictators have this terrible habit of sacrificing prosperity to gain control (often sacrificing the former without gaining the later). Being a dictator and surrounded by yes-man, they also tend to act less rationally and less predictably than your average democratic leader. History is full of kings who started terrible wars and got their countries screwed in the process. You can't apply game theory this kind of people.
- VerminOctopus1 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - jorts 2y ago
    He is a dictator who has surrounded himself with yes men and purged everyone else.
    - coliveira 2y ago
      This looks more like a description of Trump...
  - deeviant 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - gp 2y ago
      This was my take, as well.
  - DanielHB 2y ago
    It is a spectrum not a yes/no answer.
  - darkhorse222 2y ago
    He's probably rational, but he's certainly not democratically elected and has ousted all his enemies. What do you define as a dictator? He's accountable to no one.
thereddaikon 2y ago
China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over and have been calling themselves the real America ever since. I'm not saying China is right in wanting to invade Taiwan. But that's closer to their real motivations than anything having to do with economics or technology. And its important to understand your potential adversaries motivations because that will inform their decisions and tactics.
- glenneroo 2y ago
  You speak as if you have some special insider knowledge. I personally would guess that the 9-dash line also has something to do with them wanting to take Taiwan.
  - thereddaikon 2y ago
    Insider knowledge? Not really, unless you count asking actual chinese and taiwanese nationals what they think about it instead of assuming their world view is the same as my own.
    - glenneroo 2y ago
      Thanks for clarification. Do you believe nationals of these countries (or any country in the world) know what the CCP actually wants i.e. its true goals?
      - bitmasher9 2y ago
        I think their true goals are pretty transparent, but the specifics of how they plan to achieve them are more secretive. The CCP primarily wants to gain power. Political, economic, and social. The levels of ambition probably vary by individuals inside the party, but generally involves a uniform level of control across all regions of China (including Taiwan from their point of view), and enough global power to give them a free hand in East Asia. Chinese nationals may put more emphasis on increasing prosperity. Taiwan nationals may put more emphasis on strict control and global power. Individual reactions largely vary. Out of both groups, limitations on personal liberties cause the harshest criticism of CCP, with the one child policy almost universally seen unfavorably.
ge96 2y ago
With the recent oval office meeting yeah... I am skeptical too now it sucks.
doubtthis 2y ago
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Rapzid 2y ago
The West will continue to do two things. One, secure the supply of chips. Just look at what happened with COVID coinciding with increased TSMC fab demand from Apple, NVidia, and AMD. Two, prevent China from gaining the technology and expertise to make cutting edge chips. This is already happening and can be handled a number of different ways if China even wanted to try gaining this capability from Taiwan (debatable). Two doesn't really require defending Taiwan. One is the USAs primary economic concern. And I know this is hard to believe, but there are actually still people ideologically aligned with supporting democracies against invasion by fascist countries..
- anabab 2y ago
  The West seems to be not that unitary nowadays. What would be the reason for the half with ASML to keep doing the second thing you have listed?
  - Rapzid 2y ago
    You mean the half still aligned with Ukraine against Putin? Team democracy tech only. Everyone seems aligned on that. Will never happen during Xi's life.
chrisjc 2y ago
> In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. It's also worth considering how such an event might affect the US and allies. Would it slowdown, perhaps even halt certain operations/efforts for the US. For instance, all those chips the US needs to build supercomputers for "weather research". ;)
- vkou 2y ago
  What allies will the US have in a few years?
throwawayffffas 2y ago
> 1. China takes Taiwan quickly. That is extremely unlikely to happen, Taipei has invested a lot in defense, and until lately the public in Taiwan at least says they would fight[1]. It's extremely unlikely that they will fold so fast that the US won't have to get involved or to choose to not get involved. > 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory. That won't happen either. China has an incredible manpower and material advantage, they are unlikely to be effectively defeated. Even if Taiwan can deny the channel and prevent a landing they will still be effectively blockaded. > 2. Stalemate. Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot. It will take weeks before we can tell if there is a stalemate or not, and the stalemate will not be stable. If the Americans try to provide aid they will have to cross the Chinese blockade and they will have to fight to do so. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/most-taiwanese-would-defend-island-against-china-poll-finds/a-70440750 https://www.dw.com/en/most-taiwanese-would-defend-island-aga...
- justin66 2y ago
  Speaking of blockade, the United States can (before or after hostilities between Taiwan and China begin) keep ships carrying oil, food, and animal feed from reaching China.
- lupusreal 2y ago
  Nothing will happen unless China believes they can achieve a swift victory. It may turn out that they believe this, turn out to be wrong, and get themselves stuck in one of the other scenarios. As happened to Russia.
- tcmart14 2y ago
  I was gonna take some issue with point one until I read point to, which sounds like it addresses my thoughts. China could take Taiwan quickly, but it would come at a pretty high cost to Chinese forces. I personally don't think China is really that invested into conquering Taiwan militarily, the Chinese invasion has been 6-9 months away for 30 years now according to "foreign policy" experts on Chinese-Taiwan relations. You can find books in the 90s predicting an invasion happening the following fall just as you see in today's articles. While the Chinese government is far from benevolent, if you go based on history, its more likely the US invades Taiwan than China. Other than border disputes with India and teaming up with the US to handle Somali pirates, China hasnt really had any real military activity since their failed campaign against Vietnam 40-50 years ago. At least that I know of. Which I would say perhaps backs up one point you may. Chinese forces could be massively weaker than expected. War sucks, but the tiniest benefit you can at least attribute to US interventions is, we do have some real combat experienced folks. China doesn't have any actual combat experience other than the once in a blue moon Chinese and Indian forces pop shots across the border, but no real sustained campaign. But yea, as we have also seen. Regardless of military might, rooting out guerilla forces is the hardest. The Taiwanese government may fall with China installing a military governor, but if the Taiwanese resort to guerilla warfare, it will be hard for Chinese forces to keep total control and stability for a long time. Just my thoughts though based on my knowledge. If anyone has anything to add, would be glad to read and learn more.
toasterlovin 2y ago
Something I never see anybody discuss is that China is completely dependent on imported oil and the U.S. has the strongest Navy in the world. Unless I'm missing something, sanctioning oil deliveries to China should actually work in a way that sanctions don't really work against Russia, since Russia is a net energy exporter (bringing up Russia since I think that's the natural comparison for whether sanctions work). From my cursory research, China has a small petroleum reserve, hardly imports any oil via pipeline from Russia, and an industrial economy ceases to function almost immediately without oil.
siliconc0w 2y ago
The official strategy is for Taiwan to turtle in the mountains and wait for coalition aid. There is a shitload of bases and weaponary in the area to repel a china invasion and Korea and Japan both know they're next if they let Taiwan fall. However I think Trump has basically given up the game and made it pretty plain that he has no desire to help Ukraine or Taiwan and will be happy to sign 'deals' giving them up, even if those deals basically give the autocrats everything they want - just enough vague 'rare earth'-style bullshit that he feels he can claim them as victories in the press.
FuriouslyAdrift 2y ago
Defend? Probably not... but it does give cover to absolutely annihilate mainland China and reduce it's ability to compete with the United States to nothing for decades if not forever.
deepsun 2y ago
You assume that if it's not rational to start a war they would not start it. People in Ukraine and EU did the same mistake. Wars can start for no reason or for bogus "fake news" reasons. E.g. US can attack, say, Canada, at any time, there's no fundamental law of nature to prevent that.
wrsh07 2y ago
My impression was that the most likely scenario was China blockading Taiwan until forcing a surrender. In that case, the US and its allies would have time to respond although may be busy doing other things (eg responding to ships near Australia/NZ or Japan) Your situations seem possible but don't really cover any of the nuance of the real situation (see what China has been doing to the Philippines in the south china sea) A multiyear conflict with China would be difficult for the US. The manufacturing capacity and proximity would make a large category of aid difficult/impossible/useless. (Allies like SK or Japan could be more helpful in this situation)
onepremise 2y ago
With the current administration, the US will just do the same thing they did to Ukraine. They will abandon them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyJY_dq8_SM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyJY_dq8_SM The Trump administration will take TSMC's technology and then leave them to fend for themselves. Just as they literally forced Ukraine to denuclearize and now they have no power to keep Russia in check. We promised to defend Ukraine, but now the Trump administration won't promise security when It was already promised. The same thing is going to happen to Taiwan as soon as the administration get's theirs. We can't trust the current administration to follow through with any of their promises. We are more likely to get pulled into a war with Russia and North Korea on the wrong side against Ukraine and the EU. Taiwan is a minor concern to what's taking place in our government right now. The very mere fact that Trump is siding and supporting Russian narratives, offering "gold cards" to Russian Ochlarchies, firing and gutting departments and agencies, including overwatch, should terrify everybody. Trump is just flooding the zone with shit as he continues to break apart all checks and balances while keeping everybody distracted.
- newfriend 2y ago
  > We are more likely to get pulled into a war with Russia and North Korea on the wrong side against Ukraine and the EU No, we are not.
aibot923 2y ago
Prediction: USA will NEVER put troops on the ground in Taiwan, particularly with the current admin. There is no risk/benefit analysis where fighting a war makes sense for the USA. The USA's posture is a bluff - it's willing to provide aid and maybe a blockade but not fight directly. It's primary goal is to protect other regional allies and chip access (which it can build domestically).
rhubarbtree 2y ago
Not really sure how to read this, but to state it how most international commentators would put it: China wants Taiwan because they think it is part of China, and because China is building an empire. America would defend Taiwan because it wants to contain China, TSMC is an extra incentive. In the Trump administration, this calculus may change. Trump may well let China take Taiwan in the spirit of carving up the world between major powers. I believe this will now happen. In terms of invasion, it is far more likely China blurs the lines and blockades Taiwan, extracting concessions and using Russian-style tactics to take control without a real “war”. This is one reason why Trump’s policy in Ukraine is a disaster for the Taiwanese, as it confirms the efficacy and acceptability of such tactics.
wing-_-nuts 2y ago
Honestly, the idea that the US would spill American blood and treasure to defend Taiwan has kind of sailed into the sunset with our current administration. It is very much America 1st, 2nd and 3rd. If Taiwan wishes to stay independent, they need to be able to defense themselves alone because the current admin will not probably not lift a finger if current events are any measure.
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hosh 2y ago
I've heard experienced weiqi (go) players use the metaphor that Taiwan is a Ko fight between China and US. That is, the threat of capture is used to exert influence and pressure elsewhere.
TulliusCicero 2y ago
> The idea that the West protects Ukraine from a possible Russian invasion over land/culture is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen.
yread 2y ago
Is there a name for this argumentation "there are three options 2 are obvious nonsense so whatever i dream up in the third one must be true"? Kind of like no true scotsman... There are a lot more options than these 3 - especially related to the middle one - that would play out differently
namaria 2y ago
The stand off is the point. It gives nationalistic talking points to the government leaders, and a reason to write big checks to defense contractors.
hakfoo 2y ago
I still suspect the long con is that we'll see peaceful reunification. The RoC is very import dependent, and we're staring down the barrel of some major swings in world trade. Will they be able to compensate if the US economy slips into a new Great Depression and drags much of the West with it? Will the US be as interested in honouring blank-cheque defence promises when inflation is 16% and unemployment 20%?

by tnt128 2y ago

mu53 2y ago

The US is not going to help defend Taiwan is a fair thesis, but reciprocally, China is not going to attack Taiwan. Even if Russia gets all of it's demands in the peacemaking process with Ukraine, that war has done permanent and lasting damage to it's economy and global position. For China to attack Taiwan, it would give up any hope of continuing it's healthy trends towards increased economic and political importance. Eventually, Taiwan will re-join China when it is sufficiently strong. It's symbolism as a continued humiliation by the west is more useful as propaganda than an actual military target.

android521 2y ago
Unfortunately, dictators don't care much about damage to it's economy as long as they continue to be in power. When they expand and occupy more land, they will look very good in their country's history book which is a huge motivation for dictators. That's the reason why nobody thought Putin would seriously consider invasion but he did. And China will definitely attack Taiwan when the timing is right. Even if a million people dies, Xi would still be considered a hero by most chinese people if he took back Taiwan.
- re-thc 2y ago
  > Unfortunately, dictators don't care much about damage to it's economy as long as they continue to be in power. It's not a dictator issue. The stock markets have been crashing lately due to "non-dictators". > Even if a million people dies, Xi would still be considered a hero by most chinese people if he took back Taiwan. I doubt most Chinese people care. They have better things to worry about these days e.g. crashing real estate.
  - rob74 2y ago
    It remains to be seen if the person I think you are referring to is a non-dictator. He said he would be a "dictator on day one", and he sure was, but then he somehow forgot to revert to non-dictator mode... Regarding "crashing real estate": actually, most other countries would love to have built enough to bring down real estate prices. Being able to afford a place to live is good for most people! But of course, investing in real estate makes you interested into increasing the value of your property, so you're now incentivized to stop more real estate being built (and also to stop anything else that might decrease the value of your property - thus NIMBYism).
- qwertox 2y ago
  Russia is out of the AI race. That has been lost and there's no way to reverse it. If Russia wouldn't have started a war, it could have focused on building huge datacenters. It has all the energy it would have needed, now all it can do with it is sell it to China for cheap.

wiseowise 2y ago

> Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot. After 3 years of war they will sell it out to China. Taiwan started the war in the first place, actually.

_t9ow 2y ago
> After 3 years With the current administration, perhaps 3 days?
- UberFly 2y ago
  Just a reminder that the current administration just removed the "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" from the official state policy.
  - _t9ow 2y ago
    Their posturing during peacetime does not translate into showing up during wartime. In fact we have already seen how they cosy up to dictators during wartime. The USA spent decades and decades backing military coups and assassinating democratically elected leaders all over the world under the guise of fighting the Cold War only to suddenly do a U-turn and pander to Putin. Russia has won the Cold War without direct military confrontation with the US. We have also seen how Trump's first administration betrayed the Afghan government by negotiating directly with the Taliban and locking the Afghan government out of the process. He's doing the same now with regards to the war in Ukraine. If you know any Taiwanese people, ask them whether the removal of "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" brings them any comfort in light of how the Trump administration is treating Zelensky and America's NATO allies. Ask them what they think of Trump's expansionist rhetoric about annexing Canada, one of America's most steadfast allies with centuries of friendship. Talk is cheap, and Taiwan as well as America's other Pacific allies are beginning to see through it.
    - 2y ago

darthrupert 2y ago

I think a fourth option is rising its head: USA is becoming so weak geopolitically that being allied with them is becoming an incredibly bad position to be in. Therefore I assume that it's possible that Taiwan will simply choose to integrate with mainland China. This would be a huge change in their sentiments for sure, but these things may happen when large wheels are turning.

Panoramix 2y ago
This is the most likely. With allies like the US, the old enemies don't look so bad anymore.
- nemo44x 2y ago
  [flagged]

rjzzleep 2y ago

Russia has a fraction of the industrial capacity of China. Russia and Ukraine share several borders with multiple NATO countries, and Ukraine had integrated rail networks. Nevertheless Russia took 4 times the size of Taiwan and is taking more day by day. Anyone that understands basic logistics and can read a map knows that this is not winnable. Not only that, but the undersecretary of state is the guy that advocated bombing TSMC. The US took a lot from Taiwan over the last 8 years and not even once did they even consider offering a free trade agreement in return. They made the Taiwan delegation visit a Zoo during the inauguration. Singapore is allied with the west as well, but is taking a more neutral stance and a result have prospered many times over, while Taiwan has gone into total economic stagnation for decades. Where is all this moral posturing coming from? Let's look at reality and facts instead of reddit fantasies.

echoangle 2y ago
Are you talking about a different Taiwan? In what world is the economy of Taiwan stagnating for decades? Look at the growth in GDP and GDP per capita here and tell me that’s stagnation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan
- diamondfist25 2y ago
  Taiwanese here Taiwan Econ has stagnated for decades. Hence the top low birth rate in the world Avg salary of tw is 1.5k usd. The same as 20-30 yrs ago
  - echoangle 2y ago
    Just not true. Average monthly wage: https://www.statista.com/statistics/319845/taiwan-average-monthly-wage/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/319845/taiwan-average-mo... 2000 - 42k NTD 2023 - 58k NTD Converted to USD: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/USD-to-TWD-2000 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo... https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/USD-to-TWD-2023 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo... 2000 - 1270 USD 2023 - 1870 USD

throw84949499 2y ago

Why would China even invide Taiwan? It would destroy "their" infrastructure and kill "their" people! There are much better ways to remove US influence from Taiwan! They can just put sanctions or even blockade Taiwan. And if China puts sanctions on US, and dumps its USD reserves, it can destroy US economy. US is crazy about proxies fighting their "enemies" for them. This type of thinking needs to stop! This is not cold war anymore.

UberFly 2y ago
Why would China even invade Taiwan? For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. Because they have their own manifest destiny to reunify their country into what it once was. They don't care about the collateral damage to achieve this in the end.
- re-thc 2y ago
  > For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. When was this a thing? Britain gave up control "voluntarily". There's been no military conflict whatsoever. Yes, I get that there were changes in law, protests and all sorts of things but those all already happened when Hong Kong was part of China i.e. there was no "invasion".
  - barrenko 2y ago
    ... the same thing will apply later on after the successful "non-invasion" of Taiwan.
    - re-thc 2y ago
      > ... the same thing will apply later on after the successful "non-invasion" of Taiwan. Maybe. I never commented on if the situation is good - just that invasion is the wrong term. Perhaps it should be self-implosion.
      - UberFly 2y ago

alephnan 2y ago

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. There are more reasons than chips. First is Chinese nationalism. The Island of Taiwan has been under the control of various Chinese regimes over the centuries. Taking Taiwan is a rejection of the West and can be tied by to the "century of humiliation". America has military posts in Korea, Japan, Phillipines blockading China's entrance to the larger Pacific Ocean. Having Taiwan would allow them to break this up. On Taiwan is also a trove of Chinese art and antiques.

qwertox 2y ago

If China has a seriously good-enough, home-made processor and storage chips, it could gain from a war with Taiwan. If this would mean to cripple the EU's and possibly also US's and to a lesser degree it's own economy through the absence of chips on the market, having that good-enough, home-made processor would be what keeps China afloat, while the rest drowns. And if it could get Taiwan and its chip manufacturing capabilities, it would have won the war with even bigger gains. At least the EU has no way to survive without Taiwan selling them chips.

jacobp100 2y ago
The EU makes the machines that make the chips Also in Taiwan these machines are fitted with bombs that will detonate if they’re invaded
- cookiemonsieur 2y ago
  either way the chips aren't getting made and China is more equipped to survive this than the EU or the US for that matter.

CorrectHorseBat 2y ago

>The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. >From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. You've got it completely backwards. China doesn't want Taiwan because it has the best chip manufacturing in the world. Taiwan has the best chip manufacturing in the world because China wants to invade them and they wanted to give the US a reason to defend them and China a reason not to. War with Taiwan will impact global chip supply even if China can produce their own, which their economy will feel.

ekianjo 2y ago
> world because China wants to invade them and they wanted to give the US a reason to defend them and China a reason not to Reverse logic much? If wanting the best electronics know how was just enough to get it, every country would have a TSMC like by now
- CorrectHorseBat 2y ago
  It's the reason why they did it, not the reason why they succeeded.
  - etiam 2y ago
    It's also not entirely irrelevant for why they succeeded. Existential threat arguably is a much better motivator for making the sacrifices necessary than "wanting".

jjeaff 2y ago

I believe Biden said that the US plan, in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, would be to destroy the chip fabs.

huijzer 2y ago

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

cookiemonsieur 2y ago
[flagged]
- sealeck 2y ago
  There's only the small issue that the people who live there don't want to be Chinese!
- fankt 2y ago
  Taiwanese can decide to be more "Chinese" or not via votes. That's the main difference between Taiwan and China.
- inglor_cz 2y ago
  Is Ireland historically and culturally British? Sort of. Is Czechia historically and culturally German? Sort of. Is Ukraine historically and culturally Russian? Sort of. Is Pakistan historically and culturally Indian? Sort of. Once you have to ignore the wishes of the population and resort to historical arguments, forced reunification becomes a conquest. I certainly wouldn't like my own government to start expansive wars into, say, Silesia, because it used to belong to the Czech crown for 500 years. But I have a say in this. The Chinese population might not.
  - cookiemonsieur 2y ago
    Keep that same energy with israel then.
    - inglor_cz 2y ago
      No problem. Neither of the current populations in Israel should have the right to ethnically cleanse the other one, regardless of historic demography in 1900 AD or 1 AD.

jltsiren 2y ago

You seem to be assuming that the invasion would happen by surprise. That's effectively impossible due to the scale of the operation. Especially because China is full of foreigners and the logistical effort would be impossible to hide. If China decides to invade, everyone would likely know it weeks in advance. They just could not be sure if it's an actual invasion or a massive military exercise that simulates an invasion. And in either case, the US would have plenty of time to decide whether to commit additional carrier strike groups to the region before anything happens.

m000 2y ago
What would make carrier strike groups effective in the situation? Given their recent record in the defense of Israel and against the Yemeni Red Sea blockade, one could argue that their era is over. The two most likely outcomes from a carrier strike group engaging with China forces are either a humiliating retreat, or WW3. I think US are smart enough to keep them at bay. Maybe station one in the area for monitoring the situation and assisting evacuation of Americans.
- jltsiren 2y ago
  You are approaching this from the wrong direction. Air forces, navies, and drones cannot conquer a country. For that, you need ground forces with plenty of heavy equipment. Which can only cross the sea in slow and vulnerable ships. To stop them, you need long-distance firepower with large enough warheads. A carrier strike group is the least vulnerable way of delivering such firepower. The job of a carrier strike group would not be defending vulnerable targets, as in Israel or the Red Sea, but destroying them. Its job might not even be engaging the attacking forces. It could be a reserve force beyond the reach of the initial aerial campaign but still close enough to move in when the actual invasion starts. It could even be a force that remains neutral if the actual invasion never comes (unless China attacks it first).
  - m000 2y ago
    So how will the carrier strike groups be used? Sink Chinese navy ships? That's one step up the escalation ladder. China will reciprocate with sinking some escort ships of the carrier groups, just to make a point and demonstrate their hypersonics. Another step up the escalation ladder. At which point, the carrier groups either back off to de-escalate and avoid losing a capital ship. Or stay there and continue the escalation. As mentioned in another comment, this is projected to stop the Chinese invasion at the cost of losing two carriers. That is, if WW3 doesn't start first.

drodgers 2y ago

Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as more resources move in-theatre). China could secure a more reliable victory by expending most of it's ballistic missile inventory to incapacitate the US bases in Guam and Okinawa, but that would inexorably trigger WWIII.

cookiemonsieur 2y ago
[flagged]
- neuronic 2y ago
  I see you posting anti-Western comments all over the place but amidst your irrational hate you are forgetting history. Originally, the US was the protector of almost all Asian countries from Japanese Imperialism, an axis power allied with Nazi Germany. How are people like you forgetting the rape of Nanjing or the mass killings of civilians by the Japanese across the Philippines and many other places? How are you forgetting Japanese imperial occupation of Taiwan and Korea? How and WHY are you forgetting Japanese Unit 731 [1]? Ironically, the government which fled to Taiwan was ousted by a Communist revolution and chased into exile. How likely do you think is it that this operation, destablilising China, was funded and supported by the communist Soviet Union? Writing that "US is the intruder" in your other comments completely dismisses history and is a ridiculous show of brainwashed anti-Western propaganda spread by Putin, Xi, Trump and such authoritarian dictators. Of course a whole lot more happened after 1945 and American war crimes in Vietnam and elsewhere are part of that. As a European, I am aware of American cultural and military hegemony but I much rather argue with raging capitalists about workers rights compared to raging authoriatarian communists who kill everybody not on their ideological side. Given all that, I am also glad that Europe is now moving to emanciapte from the dependency on American security infrastructure but that doesn't mean NATO should stop or that the US should stop being allies with European nations. Trump gets his goal of spending less for European security but that comes with the loss of hegemonial influence. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

narrator 2y ago

They are building hundreds of naval destroyers and multiple aircraft carriers to invade a tiny island? Nope. The CCP is prepping to be the world hegemon and take over the world with drone swarms and bioweapons. The Taiwan game is like the "Gulf of America" trick that Trump played. It's a test to see if you're with the CCP or against the CCP diplomatically.

logifail 2y ago

> The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. I recently got (second-hand) one Taiwanese business perspective on this. Background: A friend of mine runs an SME in Europe and one of their key suppliers is in Taiwan. Friend visits Taiwan regularly to maintain the relationship. The following conversation happened around a year ago. My friend gets talking [in private, off the record, after a drink or three] to one of the Taiwanese managers, and the topic turns to China and the invasion scenario. My friend asked if the Taiwanese business had put any thought into what might happen (thinking maybe they've explored the business continuity angles). The Taiwanese guy basically shrugged, and said that if the Chinese were to launch an invasion, "Taiwan is completely * * * *ed", there's nothing the US or anyone else could or would do to be able to prevent that. He apparently didn't seem up tight about, more resigned. No interest in trying to plan any kind of response, because they feel they'd be hit with overwhelming force and would be completely on their own for long enough that it would all be over. My friend was and still is concerned about his business continuity, with his key supplier potentially going offline, so is quietly exploring his options.

dataviz1000 2y ago

My impression after spending month and half in Taiwan last year is that China wouldn't have to fire a single bullet to take over the country. The only thing that would stop China is a US president with the strength to put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island and the mainland. [0] If China needed Taiwan strategically they can surround the island in two days and take it the next. I concluded China is only postering and it is the economic threat with its ASEAN trading partners and the EU that keeps it at bay. The ASML chip fab machines are designed to be remotely disabled so they are not getting chips. [1] There is nothing to be gained from attacking the island and that is the reason it hasn't happened. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis#1996 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis#199... [1] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/21/asml_kill_switch/ https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/21/asml_kill_switch/

UltraSane 2y ago

I've read that in war gaming a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the US can stop it BUT they usually lost TWO aircraft carriers. That would be almost 14,000 dead US soldiers.

olalonde 2y ago

> If you believe the US will or should only act in its own interest, then its interest is to remain the only superpower. Not necessarily. Remaining the only superpower is far from guaranteed, especially looking at current economic and demographic trends. A better strategy might be to lead by example, establishing high standards that will set a benchmark for their successor.

throw0101a 2y ago

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. You are being economically rational. Not all human decisions are done through that lens. "Thucydides found that people go to war out of 'honor, fear, and interest.'” — Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan * https://acoup.blog/2019/12/05/collections-a-trip-through-thucydides-fear-honor-and-interest/ https://acoup.blog/2019/12/05/collections-a-trip-through-thu...

silvestrov 2y ago
The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. A better argument would be that when China has "good enough" chips then they don't care about chip production in Taiwan. They will only care about sea access. So if Taiwan ends up as completely destroyed rock, then that is ok for China. They will see it as a much better result than other parts of China breaking away and becoming independent.
- tyre 2y ago
  > They will only care about sea access. This is not why the CCP cares about Taiwan. And they’ve cared quite a lot since before there were semiconductors.
  - iwontberude 2y ago
    To follow up, Taiwan literally blocks their ability to see and defend against attacks coming from behind the Taiwanese island. It’s about observability and reducing easy beachheads.
    - greedo 2y ago
      It's about exerting political control.
    - Iolaum 2y ago

jppittma 2y ago

Why not destroy the foundries, move all the TSMC employees to the US, rebuild them here (there is no surer investment), and let China have the land?

elric 2y ago
For the same reasons that demolishing Gaza, relocating its inhabitants, and letting someone else develop the land is utterly insane. People aren't random machines that can be moved willy-nilly.
ricardobeat 2y ago
This lines up perfectly with Trump’s policy on Palestine and Ukraine. “Let them take the land”, who cares about the people?
sho_hn 2y ago
One reason is that none of these factories can be built without European ASML machines, and given how the US is doing its absolute best to disrupt its relationship with Europe, maybe it would be time to stop selling them there and consider selling them to China instead.

sam345 2y ago

Because not exercising superpowers is what makes a superpower?

credit_guy 2y ago

> the US is not going to help defend Taiwan, no matter who is in the White House. You are skipping a very important detail in the whole equation. The detail that teleportation was not invented yet. For China to take over Taiwan, they need to somehow place soldiers in Taiwan, and there's 100 miles of sea that complicate that. The war over Taiwan is going to be a complex chess match. US wants to keep being able to prevent China from crossing those 100 miles, and China wants to deny the US the ability to do that. US can perform sea and air patrols, but those are quite expensive, and China can try to make them even more expensive. The war is not going to have a clear starting date, like 24-Feb-2022. It's going to be a gradual increase of the invasion threat posed by China that will force the US to increase its local military posture. A certain type of blockade will happen, but it's going to be intentionally unclear how total the blockade will be. The US and its allies will try a measured response. China will try to create tensions it the US alliance. The US will try some sanctions. China will try to seed disinformation inside the US public debate sphere. Costs will ramp up. Etc, etc. But it's not going to be as simple as the US will look at the problem and will count the beans and call it quits.

127 2y ago

Xi has said that if peaceful unification doesn't happen, it will happen through force. I think that's what he's going to do. People just love to cope around hard topics.

rjmill 2y ago

I wonder if Bacardi might be a better analogue for what TSMC gets from this deal. Bacardi started a distillery in Puerto Rico (iirc, to sell in the US without tariffs) well before the Cuban Revolution. When the Cuban government seized Bacardi's assets, they were able to move everything to their other sites in Puerto Rico and Mexico. As you point out, I highly doubt this deal moves the needle on whether or not US provides military aid to Taiwan. But it does help give them more options if the situation in Taiwan becomes untenable.

ever1337 2y ago

> > If you believe the US will or should only act in its own interest, then its interest is to remain the only superpower. This is the error of non-Marxist 'realism'. The US is not a monolith with a single general interest. It is a class society with its own internal contradictions that play out, for one, internationally. There are legitimately diverging interests when it comes to the role of the United States abroad, and importantly, growing consciousness among classes which in some ways or others, view the institutions of the US' superpower-status as part and parcel of their own oppression domestically.

par 2y ago

or a fourth perspective, you're undermining the importance of TSMC production/output, and the US would indeed go to war over it.

misja111 2y ago

> In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, Trump made clear last year already that in case of a Chinese invasion, the US would not support Taiwan militarily: they would answer with economic sanctions instead.

belter 2y ago

Or just get a compromised President, and you spend just a few billion in joint ventures: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/business/ivanka-trump-china-trademarks.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/business/ivanka-trump-chi...

DanielHB 2y ago

It is hard to drill this in the mind of people who grew up under stable governments, but dictators have this terrible habit of sacrificing prosperity to gain control (often sacrificing the former without gaining the later). Being a dictator and surrounded by yes-man, they also tend to act less rationally and less predictably than your average democratic leader. History is full of kings who started terrible wars and got their countries screwed in the process. You can't apply game theory this kind of people.

VerminOctopus1 2y ago
[flagged]
- jorts 2y ago
  He is a dictator who has surrounded himself with yes men and purged everyone else.
  - coliveira 2y ago
    This looks more like a description of Trump...
- deeviant 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - gp 2y ago
    This was my take, as well.
- DanielHB 2y ago
  It is a spectrum not a yes/no answer.
- darkhorse222 2y ago
  He's probably rational, but he's certainly not democratically elected and has ousted all his enemies. What do you define as a dictator? He's accountable to no one.

thereddaikon 2y ago

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over and have been calling themselves the real America ever since. I'm not saying China is right in wanting to invade Taiwan. But that's closer to their real motivations than anything having to do with economics or technology. And its important to understand your potential adversaries motivations because that will inform their decisions and tactics.

glenneroo 2y ago
You speak as if you have some special insider knowledge. I personally would guess that the 9-dash line also has something to do with them wanting to take Taiwan.
- thereddaikon 2y ago
  Insider knowledge? Not really, unless you count asking actual chinese and taiwanese nationals what they think about it instead of assuming their world view is the same as my own.
  - glenneroo 2y ago
    Thanks for clarification. Do you believe nationals of these countries (or any country in the world) know what the CCP actually wants i.e. its true goals?
    - bitmasher9 2y ago
      I think their true goals are pretty transparent, but the specifics of how they plan to achieve them are more secretive. The CCP primarily wants to gain power. Political, economic, and social. The levels of ambition probably vary by individuals inside the party, but generally involves a uniform level of control across all regions of China (including Taiwan from their point of view), and enough global power to give them a free hand in East Asia. Chinese nationals may put more emphasis on increasing prosperity. Taiwan nationals may put more emphasis on strict control and global power. Individual reactions largely vary. Out of both groups, limitations on personal liberties cause the harshest criticism of CCP, with the one child policy almost universally seen unfavorably.

ge96 2y ago

With the recent oval office meeting yeah... I am skeptical too now it sucks.

doubtthis 2y ago

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Rapzid 2y ago

The West will continue to do two things. One, secure the supply of chips. Just look at what happened with COVID coinciding with increased TSMC fab demand from Apple, NVidia, and AMD. Two, prevent China from gaining the technology and expertise to make cutting edge chips. This is already happening and can be handled a number of different ways if China even wanted to try gaining this capability from Taiwan (debatable). Two doesn't really require defending Taiwan. One is the USAs primary economic concern. And I know this is hard to believe, but there are actually still people ideologically aligned with supporting democracies against invasion by fascist countries..

anabab 2y ago
The West seems to be not that unitary nowadays. What would be the reason for the half with ASML to keep doing the second thing you have listed?
- Rapzid 2y ago
  You mean the half still aligned with Ukraine against Putin? Team democracy tech only. Everyone seems aligned on that. Will never happen during Xi's life.

chrisjc 2y ago

> In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. It's also worth considering how such an event might affect the US and allies. Would it slowdown, perhaps even halt certain operations/efforts for the US. For instance, all those chips the US needs to build supercomputers for "weather research". ;)

vkou 2y ago
What allies will the US have in a few years?

throwawayffffas 2y ago

> 1. China takes Taiwan quickly. That is extremely unlikely to happen, Taipei has invested a lot in defense, and until lately the public in Taiwan at least says they would fight[1]. It's extremely unlikely that they will fold so fast that the US won't have to get involved or to choose to not get involved. > 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory. That won't happen either. China has an incredible manpower and material advantage, they are unlikely to be effectively defeated. Even if Taiwan can deny the channel and prevent a landing they will still be effectively blockaded. > 2. Stalemate. Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot. It will take weeks before we can tell if there is a stalemate or not, and the stalemate will not be stable. If the Americans try to provide aid they will have to cross the Chinese blockade and they will have to fight to do so. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/most-taiwanese-would-defend-island-against-china-poll-finds/a-70440750 https://www.dw.com/en/most-taiwanese-would-defend-island-aga...

justin66 2y ago
Speaking of blockade, the United States can (before or after hostilities between Taiwan and China begin) keep ships carrying oil, food, and animal feed from reaching China.
lupusreal 2y ago
Nothing will happen unless China believes they can achieve a swift victory. It may turn out that they believe this, turn out to be wrong, and get themselves stuck in one of the other scenarios. As happened to Russia.
tcmart14 2y ago
I was gonna take some issue with point one until I read point to, which sounds like it addresses my thoughts. China could take Taiwan quickly, but it would come at a pretty high cost to Chinese forces. I personally don't think China is really that invested into conquering Taiwan militarily, the Chinese invasion has been 6-9 months away for 30 years now according to "foreign policy" experts on Chinese-Taiwan relations. You can find books in the 90s predicting an invasion happening the following fall just as you see in today's articles. While the Chinese government is far from benevolent, if you go based on history, its more likely the US invades Taiwan than China. Other than border disputes with India and teaming up with the US to handle Somali pirates, China hasnt really had any real military activity since their failed campaign against Vietnam 40-50 years ago. At least that I know of. Which I would say perhaps backs up one point you may. Chinese forces could be massively weaker than expected. War sucks, but the tiniest benefit you can at least attribute to US interventions is, we do have some real combat experienced folks. China doesn't have any actual combat experience other than the once in a blue moon Chinese and Indian forces pop shots across the border, but no real sustained campaign. But yea, as we have also seen. Regardless of military might, rooting out guerilla forces is the hardest. The Taiwanese government may fall with China installing a military governor, but if the Taiwanese resort to guerilla warfare, it will be hard for Chinese forces to keep total control and stability for a long time. Just my thoughts though based on my knowledge. If anyone has anything to add, would be glad to read and learn more.

toasterlovin 2y ago

Something I never see anybody discuss is that China is completely dependent on imported oil and the U.S. has the strongest Navy in the world. Unless I'm missing something, sanctioning oil deliveries to China should actually work in a way that sanctions don't really work against Russia, since Russia is a net energy exporter (bringing up Russia since I think that's the natural comparison for whether sanctions work). From my cursory research, China has a small petroleum reserve, hardly imports any oil via pipeline from Russia, and an industrial economy ceases to function almost immediately without oil.

siliconc0w 2y ago

The official strategy is for Taiwan to turtle in the mountains and wait for coalition aid. There is a shitload of bases and weaponary in the area to repel a china invasion and Korea and Japan both know they're next if they let Taiwan fall. However I think Trump has basically given up the game and made it pretty plain that he has no desire to help Ukraine or Taiwan and will be happy to sign 'deals' giving them up, even if those deals basically give the autocrats everything they want - just enough vague 'rare earth'-style bullshit that he feels he can claim them as victories in the press.

FuriouslyAdrift 2y ago

Defend? Probably not... but it does give cover to absolutely annihilate mainland China and reduce it's ability to compete with the United States to nothing for decades if not forever.

deepsun 2y ago

You assume that if it's not rational to start a war they would not start it. People in Ukraine and EU did the same mistake. Wars can start for no reason or for bogus "fake news" reasons. E.g. US can attack, say, Canada, at any time, there's no fundamental law of nature to prevent that.

wrsh07 2y ago

My impression was that the most likely scenario was China blockading Taiwan until forcing a surrender. In that case, the US and its allies would have time to respond although may be busy doing other things (eg responding to ships near Australia/NZ or Japan) Your situations seem possible but don't really cover any of the nuance of the real situation (see what China has been doing to the Philippines in the south china sea) A multiyear conflict with China would be difficult for the US. The manufacturing capacity and proximity would make a large category of aid difficult/impossible/useless. (Allies like SK or Japan could be more helpful in this situation)

onepremise 2y ago

With the current administration, the US will just do the same thing they did to Ukraine. They will abandon them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyJY_dq8_SM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyJY_dq8_SM The Trump administration will take TSMC's technology and then leave them to fend for themselves. Just as they literally forced Ukraine to denuclearize and now they have no power to keep Russia in check. We promised to defend Ukraine, but now the Trump administration won't promise security when It was already promised. The same thing is going to happen to Taiwan as soon as the administration get's theirs. We can't trust the current administration to follow through with any of their promises. We are more likely to get pulled into a war with Russia and North Korea on the wrong side against Ukraine and the EU. Taiwan is a minor concern to what's taking place in our government right now. The very mere fact that Trump is siding and supporting Russian narratives, offering "gold cards" to Russian Ochlarchies, firing and gutting departments and agencies, including overwatch, should terrify everybody. Trump is just flooding the zone with shit as he continues to break apart all checks and balances while keeping everybody distracted.

newfriend 2y ago
> We are more likely to get pulled into a war with Russia and North Korea on the wrong side against Ukraine and the EU No, we are not.

aibot923 2y ago

Prediction: USA will NEVER put troops on the ground in Taiwan, particularly with the current admin. There is no risk/benefit analysis where fighting a war makes sense for the USA. The USA's posture is a bluff - it's willing to provide aid and maybe a blockade but not fight directly. It's primary goal is to protect other regional allies and chip access (which it can build domestically).

rhubarbtree 2y ago

Not really sure how to read this, but to state it how most international commentators would put it: China wants Taiwan because they think it is part of China, and because China is building an empire. America would defend Taiwan because it wants to contain China, TSMC is an extra incentive. In the Trump administration, this calculus may change. Trump may well let China take Taiwan in the spirit of carving up the world between major powers. I believe this will now happen. In terms of invasion, it is far more likely China blurs the lines and blockades Taiwan, extracting concessions and using Russian-style tactics to take control without a real “war”. This is one reason why Trump’s policy in Ukraine is a disaster for the Taiwanese, as it confirms the efficacy and acceptability of such tactics.

wing-_-nuts 2y ago

Honestly, the idea that the US would spill American blood and treasure to defend Taiwan has kind of sailed into the sunset with our current administration. It is very much America 1st, 2nd and 3rd. If Taiwan wishes to stay independent, they need to be able to defense themselves alone because the current admin will not probably not lift a finger if current events are any measure.

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hosh 2y ago

I've heard experienced weiqi (go) players use the metaphor that Taiwan is a Ko fight between China and US. That is, the threat of capture is used to exert influence and pressure elsewhere.

TulliusCicero 2y ago

> The idea that the West protects Ukraine from a possible Russian invasion over land/culture is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen.

yread 2y ago

Is there a name for this argumentation "there are three options 2 are obvious nonsense so whatever i dream up in the third one must be true"? Kind of like no true scotsman... There are a lot more options than these 3 - especially related to the middle one - that would play out differently

namaria 2y ago

The stand off is the point. It gives nationalistic talking points to the government leaders, and a reason to write big checks to defense contractors.

hakfoo 2y ago

I still suspect the long con is that we'll see peaceful reunification. The RoC is very import dependent, and we're staring down the barrel of some major swings in world trade. Will they be able to compensate if the US economy slips into a new Great Depression and drags much of the West with it? Will the US be as interested in honouring blank-cheque defence promises when inflation is 16% and unemployment 20%?