9 ms·

It would be one thing if there was a clear policy and adherence to it. In that case, you could discuss and reason in good faith. However there is no such indica

It would be one thing if there was a clear policy and adherence to it. In that case, you could discuss and reason in good faith. However there is no such indication that this decision is based on a considered policy. Trump's supporters would say that this is a result of not wanting the US being involved in foreign conflicts. That is a laudable goal, however that is not what is happening here. From the article > On Friday, the administration said it was sending Israel nearly $3 billion in new weapons, including more than 35,000 new 2,000 pound bombs, invoking an emergency rule under U.S. arms control laws. This just makes it look like a petty tantrum at best and a wilful desire to cleave our relationship with Europe at worst. Yes, we can all argue that Europe needs to be less dependent on the US, however what's on the other side of that is not pretty for the United States. Our ability to have the world's de facto reserve currency and hence our ability to sustain debt loads way in excess of usual is largely dependent on the US being the world's cop and sole superpower. A truly multipolar world might be good for the world, but it's certainly not going to be good for the United States.

insane_dreamer 2y ago
Good for Europe in the long run (potentially)
jltsiren 2y ago
It's one thing to stop all aid to Ukraine. That makes you an asshole in a world full of assholes. But it's another thing to do that while simultaneously working to restore relations with Russia. There is only one word for that: evil. Back in the late 90s to late 2000s, people in Western Europe generally had pretty negative views of the US. It was the country that refused to fight against climate change, launched an invasion of another country based on obvious lies, and so on. People were genuinely debating whether Bush was a bigger villain than Putin. And it wasn't just about the young and the left. Our elites hated Bush so much that they gave the next guy a Nobel Peace Prize for not being him. Since then, Putin has worked hard to raise the bar for being a bigger villain. But Trump seems to be genuinely trying to compete.
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  Why do people think it is so far fetched that Trump is a Russian asset given his behavior in his last term (trying to blackmail Zelenskyy on an official call) and his credit problems in the past (no banks would lend to him given his failure to pay back any loan, with the exception of an obscure channel through a German bank)? Perhaps Trump is just in debt to Putin and this is payback, he was intentionally crass to Zelenskyy because he wanted to provoke him and find an excuse to revoke US aid. If it barks like a dog, often it’s really a dog.
  - salynchnew 2y ago
    I don't go in for most conspiracy theories, but there is this: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-bank-faces-action-over-20bn-russian-money-laundering-scheme https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-ba... (second half of the article)
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      The MAGA crowd literally is all about conspiracy theories, heck, Trump is the head conspiracy theorist-and-chief.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    The phone was a domestic politics issue. Actual Russian assets exist, people like Jackson Hinkle and Tim Pool. Trump generally doesn't fit the mold.
    - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
      A good method is to make predictions based on an assumption. A month ago, a CRAZY prediction of actions if Trump was a Russian agent would be: Active attempts to remove Zelinsky. Stop all aid. Remove sanctions on Russia. Stop are cyber activity and planning of such against Russia. Trump has done all of the above (well he's only ordered the removing of sanctions as of today).
mayama 2y ago
> Our ability to have the world's de facto reserve currency and hence our ability to sustain debt loads way in excess of usual is largely dependent on the US being the world's cop and sole superpower. Dollar status as reserve currency started unravelling quite some time ago. It started with China's started becoming world's factory, more so after they got in to WTO and started using it to their advantage. My belief is that wallstreet believed that they could influence or coerce Chinese leadership into opening up Chinese economy and profit from that, all that G2 talk. China after 2008 crisis with ascension of Xi, belt road, challenges to foreign companies etc. acted completely against wallstreet expectations. Now, America can either try splitting world economy and be sole power in their sphere or start working towards multi polar world.
- impossiblefork 2y ago
  Yes, but it would have taken a decade or more with sensible US policy. You were still benefiting from the setup, and were going to continue to benefit for a long time. Look at Boeing's valuation, for example. No profit, still higher market cap than Airbus.
kstenerud 2y ago
This is, unfortunately about one thing only: The Nobel Peace Prize. As Trump sees it, Zelenskyy is blocking Trump's peace prize by not agreeing to his (very bad) terms that are designed with one purpose in mind: Quickly freezing the conflict so that he can declare himself peacemaker and get his prize (because Obama got his 9 months into his term). The Russians have been grooming him since the 80s (along with many others of that era - standard Soviet practice), flattering him and selling him on dreams of being president, and then after Obama got a peace prize, of getting his own Nobel prize. Watch what his aides are saying about the Nobel prize. He wants it BAD. This is why he told Zelenskyy: “You’re either going to make a deal or we’re out. And if we’re out, you’ll fight it out. I don’t think that it’s going to be pretty, but you’ll fight it out. But you don’t have the cards.” This is why he said “Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me.” This is why he booted Zenelskyy out of the White House and banned him until he's “ready for peace” This is why he's going to end the sanctions against Russia, and if Europe continues to support Ukraine, sanction them instead. Anyone who blocks his Nobel Peace Prize is the enemy. Trump: “They probably will never give it to me, even what I’m doing in Korea, and in Idlib province and all of these places. They probably will never give it to me. You know why? Because they don’t want to.” Trump: “They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize. It’s too bad. I deserve it, but they will never give it to me.”
- BobbyTables2 2y ago
  Was news to me, but crazy enough to seem plausible. I now see a lot of news headlines talking about it. On the bright side, if that happens, Alfred Nobel’s grave will become a perpetual motion machine…
  - Terr_ 2y ago
    spin = audience_size * ((renown + defamation) / skeleton_mass https://dresdencodak.com/2010/06/10/dark-science-02/ https://dresdencodak.com/2010/06/10/dark-science-02/
  - kstenerud 2y ago
    The thing is, the Nobel Committee for the Peace Prize is Norwegian. And Norway has a land border with Russia...
nyargh 2y ago
Bold of you to assume that the goal of the current administration is to maintain USD hegemony. They've stated explicitly several times that they feel the dollar is too expensive and gone on at length about the trade "deficit". Even going so far with Trump and Musk hinting that they will renig on US foreign debt obligations ("lots of fraud in treasuries"), which would destroy the value of the USD overnight if they followed through. It seems clear to me one goal of the current admin is to transform the US into an export economy, and the strong currency is one major roadblock in reaching their objective. Would love to see more analysis on this, as their trial balloons around tanking USD seem to have gotten lost in the noise.
csomar 2y ago
It is not a petty tantrum though it might look like one. You have to consider that the incumbents have won the US elections, that's not a small feat. What many people are missing is that if the US main challenger is China and beating Russia is a far thing, then it makes sense for the US to ally with Russia against China. For that, the US might need to give Russia something (some EU countries?) for this hustle and also refund it for the earlier war (yep). But if the administration believes this is worth it to contain China then it's the right call. This is why European countries are freaking out. They might be seeing the change as being more fundamental than a two guys liking/hating each other and that a trade might involve their territory in an unfortunate moment (though a part of this is their own negligence).
- Gud 2y ago
  This makes no sense. Russia has the economy on parity with Italy.
  - ttoinou 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - Gud 2y ago
      No. Russia is run by a war mongering mafioso. That their economy is in shambles is expected.
      - ttoinou 2y ago
        Define shambles. Italy’s economy isn’t doing great either but there are ways to hide it
        spiderfarmer 2y ago
        Russia will suffer the consequences of its brain drain and their aging population far after the overheated war economy cools down.
narrator 2y ago
The difference is Israel's enemies are easy to defeat. Russia, not so much. Europe made the same mistake as in world war II. Believing their own propaganda and convincing themselves that Russia would be easy to defeat. Trump talks to the military and knows what's reality.
- 9dev 2y ago
  So easy that Iran is still going strong, working on their nuclear weapons programme, with an outspoken goal of destroying Israel?
- amluto 2y ago
  I wasn’t around for WWII, but now don’t think you have this quite right. The US fought against Germany and its allies (and Japan, which had directly attacked the US and continued to fight after Germany surrendered). The war was never against Russia. Sure, maybe the US could have invaded Russia afterwards, but that would have been a disaster, kind of like how Germany’s invasion of Russia was a disaster and a bit like how Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine has been a real mess for Russia.
  - hnfong 2y ago
    Well, GP isn't wrong. Nazi Germany controlled most of Europe in WWII, fought against Russia (Soviet Union) and lost...
    - amluto 2y ago
      Somehow I assumed post meant “Allies” by “Europe”, but I guess it was rather ambiguous.
- Narretz 2y ago
  Israel is using these bombs on Hamas and Hezbollah mostly, both of which it hasn't defeated after 1 1/2 years of complete material superiority. It's actually impossible to defeat an enemy that uses asymmetric warfare. Israel already knows this, but Netanjahu needs the war to continue to stay in power.
aaron695 2y ago
[dead]
nanotuber 2y ago
It's a negotiation tactic. It's trying to force Ukraine's hand to come to negotiations. That's adherent to many Trump policies: - Force a resolution of the conflict - Get Europe to pay for its own security - Focus on Iran and the Middle East - Pivot to competition with China - Deter Sino-Russia cooperation - Reduce US spending and deficit
tempodox 2y ago
> if there was a clear policy Nope, it's pure chaos, but that's where Trump thrives the most. It's the perfect diversion, nobody knows what he'll destroy next.
sgregnt 2y ago
Israel is paying for this weapons by its own money.
- dlahoda 2y ago
  on what terms?
ashoeafoot 2y ago
The weiderst part is that the us is now allied in a self conflicting alliance collection . They are friendly to russia who is hostile towards israel by supporting iran. Strange bedfellow history maketh.

insane_dreamer 2y ago

Good for Europe in the long run (potentially)

jltsiren 2y ago

It's one thing to stop all aid to Ukraine. That makes you an asshole in a world full of assholes. But it's another thing to do that while simultaneously working to restore relations with Russia. There is only one word for that: evil. Back in the late 90s to late 2000s, people in Western Europe generally had pretty negative views of the US. It was the country that refused to fight against climate change, launched an invasion of another country based on obvious lies, and so on. People were genuinely debating whether Bush was a bigger villain than Putin. And it wasn't just about the young and the left. Our elites hated Bush so much that they gave the next guy a Nobel Peace Prize for not being him. Since then, Putin has worked hard to raise the bar for being a bigger villain. But Trump seems to be genuinely trying to compete.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago
Why do people think it is so far fetched that Trump is a Russian asset given his behavior in his last term (trying to blackmail Zelenskyy on an official call) and his credit problems in the past (no banks would lend to him given his failure to pay back any loan, with the exception of an obscure channel through a German bank)? Perhaps Trump is just in debt to Putin and this is payback, he was intentionally crass to Zelenskyy because he wanted to provoke him and find an excuse to revoke US aid. If it barks like a dog, often it’s really a dog.
- salynchnew 2y ago
  I don't go in for most conspiracy theories, but there is this: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-bank-faces-action-over-20bn-russian-money-laundering-scheme https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-ba... (second half of the article)
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    The MAGA crowd literally is all about conspiracy theories, heck, Trump is the head conspiracy theorist-and-chief.
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  The phone was a domestic politics issue. Actual Russian assets exist, people like Jackson Hinkle and Tim Pool. Trump generally doesn't fit the mold.
  - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
    A good method is to make predictions based on an assumption. A month ago, a CRAZY prediction of actions if Trump was a Russian agent would be: Active attempts to remove Zelinsky. Stop all aid. Remove sanctions on Russia. Stop are cyber activity and planning of such against Russia. Trump has done all of the above (well he's only ordered the removing of sanctions as of today).

mayama 2y ago

> Our ability to have the world's de facto reserve currency and hence our ability to sustain debt loads way in excess of usual is largely dependent on the US being the world's cop and sole superpower. Dollar status as reserve currency started unravelling quite some time ago. It started with China's started becoming world's factory, more so after they got in to WTO and started using it to their advantage. My belief is that wallstreet believed that they could influence or coerce Chinese leadership into opening up Chinese economy and profit from that, all that G2 talk. China after 2008 crisis with ascension of Xi, belt road, challenges to foreign companies etc. acted completely against wallstreet expectations. Now, America can either try splitting world economy and be sole power in their sphere or start working towards multi polar world.

impossiblefork 2y ago
Yes, but it would have taken a decade or more with sensible US policy. You were still benefiting from the setup, and were going to continue to benefit for a long time. Look at Boeing's valuation, for example. No profit, still higher market cap than Airbus.

kstenerud 2y ago

This is, unfortunately about one thing only: The Nobel Peace Prize. As Trump sees it, Zelenskyy is blocking Trump's peace prize by not agreeing to his (very bad) terms that are designed with one purpose in mind: Quickly freezing the conflict so that he can declare himself peacemaker and get his prize (because Obama got his 9 months into his term). The Russians have been grooming him since the 80s (along with many others of that era - standard Soviet practice), flattering him and selling him on dreams of being president, and then after Obama got a peace prize, of getting his own Nobel prize. Watch what his aides are saying about the Nobel prize. He wants it BAD. This is why he told Zelenskyy: “You’re either going to make a deal or we’re out. And if we’re out, you’ll fight it out. I don’t think that it’s going to be pretty, but you’ll fight it out. But you don’t have the cards.” This is why he said “Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me.” This is why he booted Zenelskyy out of the White House and banned him until he's “ready for peace” This is why he's going to end the sanctions against Russia, and if Europe continues to support Ukraine, sanction them instead. Anyone who blocks his Nobel Peace Prize is the enemy. Trump: “They probably will never give it to me, even what I’m doing in Korea, and in Idlib province and all of these places. They probably will never give it to me. You know why? Because they don’t want to.” Trump: “They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize. It’s too bad. I deserve it, but they will never give it to me.”

BobbyTables2 2y ago
Was news to me, but crazy enough to seem plausible. I now see a lot of news headlines talking about it. On the bright side, if that happens, Alfred Nobel’s grave will become a perpetual motion machine…
- Terr_ 2y ago
  spin = audience_size * ((renown + defamation) / skeleton_mass https://dresdencodak.com/2010/06/10/dark-science-02/ https://dresdencodak.com/2010/06/10/dark-science-02/
- kstenerud 2y ago
  The thing is, the Nobel Committee for the Peace Prize is Norwegian. And Norway has a land border with Russia...

nyargh 2y ago

Bold of you to assume that the goal of the current administration is to maintain USD hegemony. They've stated explicitly several times that they feel the dollar is too expensive and gone on at length about the trade "deficit". Even going so far with Trump and Musk hinting that they will renig on US foreign debt obligations ("lots of fraud in treasuries"), which would destroy the value of the USD overnight if they followed through. It seems clear to me one goal of the current admin is to transform the US into an export economy, and the strong currency is one major roadblock in reaching their objective. Would love to see more analysis on this, as their trial balloons around tanking USD seem to have gotten lost in the noise.

csomar 2y ago

It is not a petty tantrum though it might look like one. You have to consider that the incumbents have won the US elections, that's not a small feat. What many people are missing is that if the US main challenger is China and beating Russia is a far thing, then it makes sense for the US to ally with Russia against China. For that, the US might need to give Russia something (some EU countries?) for this hustle and also refund it for the earlier war (yep). But if the administration believes this is worth it to contain China then it's the right call. This is why European countries are freaking out. They might be seeing the change as being more fundamental than a two guys liking/hating each other and that a trade might involve their territory in an unfortunate moment (though a part of this is their own negligence).

Gud 2y ago
This makes no sense. Russia has the economy on parity with Italy.
- ttoinou 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - Gud 2y ago
    No. Russia is run by a war mongering mafioso. That their economy is in shambles is expected.
    - ttoinou 2y ago
      Define shambles. Italy’s economy isn’t doing great either but there are ways to hide it
      - spiderfarmer 2y ago
        Russia will suffer the consequences of its brain drain and their aging population far after the overheated war economy cools down.

narrator 2y ago

The difference is Israel's enemies are easy to defeat. Russia, not so much. Europe made the same mistake as in world war II. Believing their own propaganda and convincing themselves that Russia would be easy to defeat. Trump talks to the military and knows what's reality.

9dev 2y ago
So easy that Iran is still going strong, working on their nuclear weapons programme, with an outspoken goal of destroying Israel?
amluto 2y ago
I wasn’t around for WWII, but now don’t think you have this quite right. The US fought against Germany and its allies (and Japan, which had directly attacked the US and continued to fight after Germany surrendered). The war was never against Russia. Sure, maybe the US could have invaded Russia afterwards, but that would have been a disaster, kind of like how Germany’s invasion of Russia was a disaster and a bit like how Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine has been a real mess for Russia.
- hnfong 2y ago
  Well, GP isn't wrong. Nazi Germany controlled most of Europe in WWII, fought against Russia (Soviet Union) and lost...
  - amluto 2y ago
    Somehow I assumed post meant “Allies” by “Europe”, but I guess it was rather ambiguous.
Narretz 2y ago
Israel is using these bombs on Hamas and Hezbollah mostly, both of which it hasn't defeated after 1 1/2 years of complete material superiority. It's actually impossible to defeat an enemy that uses asymmetric warfare. Israel already knows this, but Netanjahu needs the war to continue to stay in power.

aaron695 2y ago

[dead]

nanotuber 2y ago

It's a negotiation tactic. It's trying to force Ukraine's hand to come to negotiations. That's adherent to many Trump policies: - Force a resolution of the conflict - Get Europe to pay for its own security - Focus on Iran and the Middle East - Pivot to competition with China - Deter Sino-Russia cooperation - Reduce US spending and deficit

tempodox 2y ago

> if there was a clear policy Nope, it's pure chaos, but that's where Trump thrives the most. It's the perfect diversion, nobody knows what he'll destroy next.

sgregnt 2y ago

Israel is paying for this weapons by its own money.

dlahoda 2y ago
on what terms?

ashoeafoot 2y ago

The weiderst part is that the us is now allied in a self conflicting alliance collection . They are friendly to russia who is hostile towards israel by supporting iran. Strange bedfellow history maketh.