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The American Weather Forecast Is in Trouble
- andyjohnson0 2y ago"Of course, NOAA itself has provided some of the key data that confirm that the climate is warming; it houses one of the most significant repositories of climate data on Earth, detailing shifting atmospheric conditions, the health of coastal fisheries, ice-core and tree-ring data, and countless other data sets. Project 2025 targeted the agency for exactly this reason: NOAA’s research is “the source of much of NOAA’s climate alarmism," the policy book states." Unfortunately this is all it is. The death cult wants to turn a profit while they burn our planet.
- throw0101c 2y agoSee recent "Trump bars federal scientists from working on pivotal global [IPCC] climate report": * https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/21/climate/trump-blocks-scientists-ipcc/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/21/climate/trump-blocks-scientis...
- kevin_thibedeau 2y agoWell it's also Accuweather getting their revenge for a well functioning not-for-profit weather service despite their prior attempts to kneecap it.
- rafram 2y agoI don’t know about AccuWeather specifically, but don’t most weather sites ultimately get their forecasts from the National Weather Service?
- jordanb 2y agoAccuweather tried to sue NOAA to prevent them giving forecasts to the public via the internet. Accuweather wanted to stay as a middle-man. Accuweather and basically every forecaster is using input data from NOAA or other government agencies. The biggest private companies could, theoretically, run proprietary models for their customers if NOAA were to quit doing forecasts altogether. For instance, the GFS is open source so someone with a big enough supercomputer could use it.
- drivingmenuts 2y agoHow much data are they pulling from privately-owned weather monitoring systems in people's backyards?
- cbfrench 2y agoNone of the models ingests that data, mostly because there is no way to ensure that personal weather stations are sited correctly. So, for instance, an anemometer has to be around 30’ above ground with no obstructions to generate usable readings. Most people putting a personal weather station in the backyard aren’t going to the trouble to locate the station where it can provide data that are usable. Plus, surface readings are only a small part of the atmospheric picture; you need weather balloons to generate a more holistic reflection of the atmosphere at a site. There are also data generated from aircraft, but those are more one-dimensional (in the sense that they are only sampling conditions at a single altitude) than twice-daily balloon launches from selected sites. Until someone decides to implement a private, nation-wide radiosonde network, there probably won’t be a numerical prediction model that operates independently of NOAA data.
- kevin_thibedeau 2y agoNOAA's weather satellites also provide atmospheric moisture measurements that are integral in predictive modeling.
- bediger4000 2y agoWe're throwing away a whole lot just to satisfy a religious minority. What's next, getting oligarch owned and running media to start attacking evidence that supports evolution?
- ForTheKidz 2y ago[flagged]
- gjsman-1000 2y agoHello, you may be new here, but the above comment is a violation of the guidelines. “Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes. Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something. Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.” https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- neilv 2y agoThe term of art I've heard in English (a little different than the exact term they used) is appropriate to their point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot But maybe impolitic to mention this theory, at least with this term. Many have already heard this theory, and many who have not could be offended by the term itself.
- ForTheKidz 2y agoi mean that's fine, but that applies to about 20% of the posts on this forum. Way more than that if you acknowledge the various ideologies baked into american VC culture. Regardless, I would think that asserting that a minority is responsible for political events violates the same guidelines even more flagrantly. Coherent application of rules is important.
- throw0101c 2y ago* https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/02/noaa-cuts-nws/681875/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/02/noaa-cut... * https://archive.is/vk082 https://archive.is/vk082
- jmclnx 2y ago[flagged]
- blastonico 2y ago[flagged]
- dang 2y agoCould you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
- blastonico 2y agook, I'm sorry, I think that politics are consuming me, it's driving my thoughts more than it should. I'll take some time off, breath some fresh air, and improve. Again.. sorry.
- dang 2y agoI understand, believe me! It's clear that a lot of us are experiencing this right now. Thanks for the kind reply.
- dexwiz 2y agoOil and Gas will just pay for premium forecasts we all get for free now.
- throw0101c 2y ago> Among its other duties, NOAA employs thousands of people to help accurately predict the weather through the National Weather Service; privatizing federal weather data has long been a project of some conservative lawmakers too. John Oliver had a show on this during Trump 1.0: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMGn9T37eR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMGn9T37eR8
- drawkward 2y ago[flagged]
- whoknowsidont 2y agoYep. We're legitimately under attack.
- dang 2y agoWould you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and taking HN threads further into flamewar? We already asked you this recently (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42936238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42936238) and you've continued to do a ton of it. If you keep this up, we're going to have to ban you, so if you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.
- drawkward 2y ago[flagged]
- defrost 2y agoPlease consider making that case in a more substantive manner. Glib off the cuff ankle deep sophisms do well on reddit, here you can have impact making a stronger case.
- snakeyjake 2y ago[flagged]
- nipperkinfeet 2y agoIt hasn't been reliable for at least the last 8 years now.
- chneu 2y agoNOAA? They're consistently above average in forecast accuracy. NOAA provides the basis for basically all weather prediction in the western hemisphere. Some companies are a lil better than others because they add onto NOAA and tweak their specific algos, but yeah ultimately weather prediction is only possible to the accuracy it is because of NOAA.
- gmuslera 2y agoThe apocalypse won’t be televised. Don’t Look Up was supposed to be a parody.
- locopati 2y agoHurricane season will be wild this year between NOAA and FEMA cuts, vindictive state funding, and a general restriction on accurate government statistics.
- CaffeineLD50 2y agoWell have to just look out our windows to determine if we need umbrellas or a coat I guess. Like we've done for a hundred thousand years...?
- cr125rider 2y agoThe Amish radar is accurate but struggles with prediction.
- eesmith 2y agoThe modern weather service started in part due to the failures of the earlier model. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoolhouse_Blizzard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoolhouse_Blizzard > The Schoolhouse Blizzard ... hit the U.S. Great Plains on January 12, 1888. With an estimated 235 deaths, it is the world's 10th deadliest winter storm on record. > The blizzard came unexpectedly on a relatively warm day, and many people were caught unaware, including children in one-room schoolhouses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane > The 1900 Galveston hurricane .. is the deadliest natural disaster in United States history. ... it left between 6,000 and 12,000 fatalities in the United States ... > The Weather Bureau forecasters had no way of knowing the storm's trajectory, as Weather Bureau director Willis Luther Moore implemented a policy to block telegraph reports from Cuban meteorologists at the meteorological observatory of the Colegio de Belén in Havana – considered one of the most advanced meteorological institutions in the world at the time – due to tensions in the aftermath of the Spanish–American War. Moore also changed protocol to force local Weather Bureau offices to seek authorization from the central office before issuing storm warnings. It also saves a lot of money. If a storm is coming, when do you need to divert incoming flights because the weather will be too bad? How much staff do you need to clear the roads for the upcoming snowstorm? Does the likely storm damage justify harvesting early? How much of the coast should be under a hurricane warning?
- InDubioProRubio 2y agoSo.. hypothetical could you decentralise the computation and software? Run it piggybacking on some virtual computer similar to that alien Signal search? Ty it to a cryptocurrency where the mining process is work on the weather model? To be honest - having it all in one building - in the wild earth we move towards, was a single point of failure anyway. How do you finance decentralised infrastructure, if you do not have a center with a power monopole to collect taxesd.