9 ms·

Considering Lithium ‘semi-solid-state battery’ (SSSB) already does 25% to 45% higher capacity with roadmap at 55% next year and double the battery capacity befo

by ksec 2y ago

Considering Lithium ‘semi-solid-state battery’ (SSSB) already does 25% to 45% higher capacity with roadmap at 55% next year and double the battery capacity before 2030. I wonder what could we expect from ‘all-solid-state batteries’ (ASSB). Most people think current AI development is the most important research, I actually think ASSB ( or any massive battery improvement ) would bring us far more real life, quality improvement with things that previously were not possible.

baq 2y ago
Economically viable safe methane fuel cells would be revolutionary, too.
- number6 2y ago
  Fusion!
- audunw 2y ago
  If we’re could get a breakthrough in fuel cells it’d be even nicer if it was an efficient fuel cell for a liquid fuel. And to get an efficient way to make it from CO2 and electricity. Though I think for ground transportation, batteries will always be preferable.
  - tastyfreeze 2y ago
    Direct methanol fuel cells are a thing. It may not fit your definition of efficient but that is the technology I think should be pursued. There are multiple biological, chemical and electrochemical pathways to produce methanol. That means that there could be an economic way to produce it nearly everywhere. Another interesting technology is redox flow batteries. The fluid itself is charged. Fluid storage can be sized to the charge/use requirements. Or you can haul in "charged" fluid. But since the fluid is not consumed, discharged fluid would need to be taken away. Making hauling is less efficient.
- AtlasBarfed 2y ago
  Still releases carbon. Better than ICE and gasoline, but the cheapest methane is still from the ground.
- Svoka 2y ago
  I believe fuel cells with ubiquity of electricity is just beating the dead horse. Like, what are cons and pros? EVs: + Much simpler design + Literally zero maintenance required + Centralized power production is extremely efficient + Power production can be 100% carbon free in 10 years, if there's will with nuclear and other 'renewables' + Can be charged literally everywhere where's sun in theory, but in every home with outlet in practice + Batteries are crucial to every part of our tech today so they will become better - Heavy (low energy density compared to fuel, which isn't great for planes etc) Fuel Cells: + high energy density + less dirty than gasoline + allow oil producers to stay in business + keeps mechanics in business - requires mechanics and expensive maintenance - complex designs for combustion engines + gearboxes + drive trains - requires immense infrastructure change to adopt Unless I miss something. What is the point of fuel cells/combustion engines for consumer use? I understand there are applications where energy density is necessary, like cargo ships, rockets or airplanes. Otherwise, seems like a welfare program for industries built around resource extraction and complicated machinery. But for consumers, what is the point of fuel cells? This is honest question. If I missed some con/pro let me know I'll add it.
  - danans 2y ago
    > Otherwise, seems like a welfare program for industries built around resource extraction and complicated machinery. You say this dismissively, but that's exactly what it is. The basic problem with renewable energy (especially solar and batteries) is that there is no way for the existing fossil energy industry to replicate the extractive oligopolies around the production, delivery, and utilization of energy that they have with oil and gas.
    - Svoka 2y ago
      I am not saying it dismissively. As you could see this is a "pro" point in my list. I honestly recognize that it's a transition. But IMO better option is to have hybrid type EV with smaller battery + Fuel Cell generator. Or just throw away combustion engines where they are not needed.
davedx 2y ago
Meh, we need better charging networks more than we need better battery chemistry at this point.
- smegger001 2y ago
  fortunately we can do two things
- johanvts 2y ago
  For cars I agree, but a significant energy density improvement would enable aviation and other fields to electrify.
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
  These are 2 different things; "better batteries" is scientific and engineering breakthroughs. Engineering in the sense of building them in on time, in quantity, to quality and on a budget. "Better charging networks" is infrastructure rollout that is underway. If it's an engineering issue, it's civil engineering. Charging networks are on the whole continually getting better. But maybe not at a fast enough pace. Both can happen, though. Both would make a difference.
- prododev 2y ago
  Better batteries require less frequent charging, reducing pressure on networks. But also, better batteries enable electrification of other modes of transport much more easily. Cars are bad, electric cars are at best "less bad".
  - bobim 2y ago
    Sure, but we have some difficulties to understand that we have to let go some of the comfort we were used to. And we know that EVs are not for saving our climate, it's for saving the car industry. Don't look up.
    - hedora 2y ago
      All our cars are EV’s now. I cannot express how much more convenient this is for us. We only have level one charging at home. It’s fine. The biggest remaining problem is having to go to multiple charging stations during long trips every once in a while, usually because Electrify America says they have open stalls when they do not. That seems fixable. EV charge times improved a lot in the last 9 years. Even better batteries would be better, of course. However, my bigger concern is energy efficiency. Tesla’s mile/kwh is much higher than comparable cars from the other manufacturers. It’s not clear if the other companies will catch up, since they’re hard-wired to build gas guzzlers.
SebFender 2y ago
In the next few years you'll witness AI won't be so important... true advancement is always energy management.
- dartos 2y ago
  > true advancement is always energy management Idk about that, but yeah I agree AI has got a good 3-5 years left in its hype run.
  - Mistletoe 2y ago
    I’m not that optimistic I’m just hoping it makes it to the end of the year.
  - x______________ 2y ago
    Does this hypothesis take into consideration that we're on a 3rd leg of this current 'graphics card' hype run with crypto & blockchain at the front, and NFTs immediately after? -x
  - dkjaudyeqooe 2y ago
    With the fanciful claims about the imminent arrival of AGI, that seems unlikely. It'll probably crash and burn in a year or two as top line performance suffers. The good news is that low spec performance is a rich area for improvement and it's progressing very nicely.
- mannders 2y ago
  IMO AI was extremely important, but the breakthroughs are mostly done. I’m just expecting incremental improvements with LLMs now. A Turing complete personal tutor to explain any concept already exists. You can prompt a logo or video into existence. This is crazy. The real value will be the creative people who use AI to self teach and build real world value, like energy management, or anything else. Not this pipe dream that AGI will be achieved and automate the entire world, which for some reason gets so much focus. Seems like procrastination to obsess over this.
omgJustTest 2y ago
Grid scale batteries would immediately impact electricity costs. The potential is 2/3 of the cost of current electricity costs.
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  Am I being too pessimistic to think we would actually get the same electricity costs if we are lucky and 1/3 more profits going up to the executive portion of the company?
  - haliskerbas 2y ago
    It could even go up, the customers will cover the cost of transitioning to new tech!
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    If you have enough space for distributed solar generation, you buy the batteries and go off grid (if your local jurisdiction will allow it; if they don't, prepare to politik and fight for the right to so you're not trapped into their profit extraction through local code and/or financial and regulatory mechanisms [see below citations]). The Secret Society Raising Your Electricity Bills - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43151865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43151865 - Feb 2023 https://prospect.org/environment/2025-02-21-secret-society-raising-your-electricity-bills/ https://prospect.org/environment/2025-02-21-secret-society-r...
  - superturkey650 2y ago
    I think the most likely case is that electricity prices go down but demand goes up as devices more eagerly use power so you end up with an electricity bill that stays consistent.
- Scaevolus 2y ago
  Grid scale batteries are not very sensitive to energy density. Car batteries are very sensitive to it.
  - 2y ago
Gibbon1 2y ago
One thing interesting to me is solid state batteries would be a boon battery powered aircraft. Current 150 to 200 miles range. If you double capacity then 300 to 400 miles range becomes possible. My rule of thumb with range is if you can go from San Francisco to Tahoe that's a notable milestone. Also with AI it feels like we have 8 billion people in the world who are intellectually under utilized and often under fed.

by ksec 2y ago

baq 2y ago

Economically viable safe methane fuel cells would be revolutionary, too.

number6 2y ago
Fusion!
audunw 2y ago
If we’re could get a breakthrough in fuel cells it’d be even nicer if it was an efficient fuel cell for a liquid fuel. And to get an efficient way to make it from CO2 and electricity. Though I think for ground transportation, batteries will always be preferable.
- tastyfreeze 2y ago
  Direct methanol fuel cells are a thing. It may not fit your definition of efficient but that is the technology I think should be pursued. There are multiple biological, chemical and electrochemical pathways to produce methanol. That means that there could be an economic way to produce it nearly everywhere. Another interesting technology is redox flow batteries. The fluid itself is charged. Fluid storage can be sized to the charge/use requirements. Or you can haul in "charged" fluid. But since the fluid is not consumed, discharged fluid would need to be taken away. Making hauling is less efficient.
AtlasBarfed 2y ago
Still releases carbon. Better than ICE and gasoline, but the cheapest methane is still from the ground.
Svoka 2y ago
I believe fuel cells with ubiquity of electricity is just beating the dead horse. Like, what are cons and pros? EVs: + Much simpler design + Literally zero maintenance required + Centralized power production is extremely efficient + Power production can be 100% carbon free in 10 years, if there's will with nuclear and other 'renewables' + Can be charged literally everywhere where's sun in theory, but in every home with outlet in practice + Batteries are crucial to every part of our tech today so they will become better - Heavy (low energy density compared to fuel, which isn't great for planes etc) Fuel Cells: + high energy density + less dirty than gasoline + allow oil producers to stay in business + keeps mechanics in business - requires mechanics and expensive maintenance - complex designs for combustion engines + gearboxes + drive trains - requires immense infrastructure change to adopt Unless I miss something. What is the point of fuel cells/combustion engines for consumer use? I understand there are applications where energy density is necessary, like cargo ships, rockets or airplanes. Otherwise, seems like a welfare program for industries built around resource extraction and complicated machinery. But for consumers, what is the point of fuel cells? This is honest question. If I missed some con/pro let me know I'll add it.
- danans 2y ago
  > Otherwise, seems like a welfare program for industries built around resource extraction and complicated machinery. You say this dismissively, but that's exactly what it is. The basic problem with renewable energy (especially solar and batteries) is that there is no way for the existing fossil energy industry to replicate the extractive oligopolies around the production, delivery, and utilization of energy that they have with oil and gas.
  - Svoka 2y ago
    I am not saying it dismissively. As you could see this is a "pro" point in my list. I honestly recognize that it's a transition. But IMO better option is to have hybrid type EV with smaller battery + Fuel Cell generator. Or just throw away combustion engines where they are not needed.

davedx 2y ago

Meh, we need better charging networks more than we need better battery chemistry at this point.

smegger001 2y ago
fortunately we can do two things
johanvts 2y ago
For cars I agree, but a significant energy density improvement would enable aviation and other fields to electrify.
SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
These are 2 different things; "better batteries" is scientific and engineering breakthroughs. Engineering in the sense of building them in on time, in quantity, to quality and on a budget. "Better charging networks" is infrastructure rollout that is underway. If it's an engineering issue, it's civil engineering. Charging networks are on the whole continually getting better. But maybe not at a fast enough pace. Both can happen, though. Both would make a difference.
prododev 2y ago
Better batteries require less frequent charging, reducing pressure on networks. But also, better batteries enable electrification of other modes of transport much more easily. Cars are bad, electric cars are at best "less bad".
- bobim 2y ago
  Sure, but we have some difficulties to understand that we have to let go some of the comfort we were used to. And we know that EVs are not for saving our climate, it's for saving the car industry. Don't look up.
  - hedora 2y ago
    All our cars are EV’s now. I cannot express how much more convenient this is for us. We only have level one charging at home. It’s fine. The biggest remaining problem is having to go to multiple charging stations during long trips every once in a while, usually because Electrify America says they have open stalls when they do not. That seems fixable. EV charge times improved a lot in the last 9 years. Even better batteries would be better, of course. However, my bigger concern is energy efficiency. Tesla’s mile/kwh is much higher than comparable cars from the other manufacturers. It’s not clear if the other companies will catch up, since they’re hard-wired to build gas guzzlers.

SebFender 2y ago

In the next few years you'll witness AI won't be so important... true advancement is always energy management.

dartos 2y ago
> true advancement is always energy management Idk about that, but yeah I agree AI has got a good 3-5 years left in its hype run.
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  I’m not that optimistic I’m just hoping it makes it to the end of the year.
- x______________ 2y ago
  Does this hypothesis take into consideration that we're on a 3rd leg of this current 'graphics card' hype run with crypto & blockchain at the front, and NFTs immediately after? -x
- dkjaudyeqooe 2y ago
  With the fanciful claims about the imminent arrival of AGI, that seems unlikely. It'll probably crash and burn in a year or two as top line performance suffers. The good news is that low spec performance is a rich area for improvement and it's progressing very nicely.
mannders 2y ago
IMO AI was extremely important, but the breakthroughs are mostly done. I’m just expecting incremental improvements with LLMs now. A Turing complete personal tutor to explain any concept already exists. You can prompt a logo or video into existence. This is crazy. The real value will be the creative people who use AI to self teach and build real world value, like energy management, or anything else. Not this pipe dream that AGI will be achieved and automate the entire world, which for some reason gets so much focus. Seems like procrastination to obsess over this.

omgJustTest 2y ago

Grid scale batteries would immediately impact electricity costs. The potential is 2/3 of the cost of current electricity costs.

Mistletoe 2y ago
Am I being too pessimistic to think we would actually get the same electricity costs if we are lucky and 1/3 more profits going up to the executive portion of the company?
- haliskerbas 2y ago
  It could even go up, the customers will cover the cost of transitioning to new tech!
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  If you have enough space for distributed solar generation, you buy the batteries and go off grid (if your local jurisdiction will allow it; if they don't, prepare to politik and fight for the right to so you're not trapped into their profit extraction through local code and/or financial and regulatory mechanisms [see below citations]). The Secret Society Raising Your Electricity Bills - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43151865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43151865 - Feb 2023 https://prospect.org/environment/2025-02-21-secret-society-raising-your-electricity-bills/ https://prospect.org/environment/2025-02-21-secret-society-r...
- superturkey650 2y ago
  I think the most likely case is that electricity prices go down but demand goes up as devices more eagerly use power so you end up with an electricity bill that stays consistent.
Scaevolus 2y ago
Grid scale batteries are not very sensitive to energy density. Car batteries are very sensitive to it.
- 2y ago

Gibbon1 2y ago

One thing interesting to me is solid state batteries would be a boon battery powered aircraft. Current 150 to 200 miles range. If you double capacity then 300 to 400 miles range becomes possible. My rule of thumb with range is if you can go from San Francisco to Tahoe that's a notable milestone. Also with AI it feels like we have 8 billion people in the world who are intellectually under utilized and often under fed.