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... until it replaces the best. I used to say 20 to 100 years, now I'm down to 2 to 20.
by Hizonner 2y ago
... until it replaces the best. I used to say 20 to 100 years, now I'm down to 2 to 20.
- cybrox 2y agoI recommend you look at pictures of how people in the 60s thought the 2000s would be like.
- csallen 2y agoEvery situation is different, and thorough thinking requires taking those differences into account, rather than using oversimplified heuristics.
- beezlewax 2y agoI'm not sure which side of this two-sided argument you are trying to support with this comment.
- csallen 2y agoI'm against the idea that past overestimates of technological progress imply that CurrentTechPredictionX must also be an overestimate. It's a lazy way of thinking that fails to actually look at any specific details of either situation.
- cybrox 2y agoI'm not implying the current prediction >must< also be an overestimate. I'm saying be careful when adjusting your expectations based on current rapid momentum.
- bee_rider 2y agoIMO it is better not to assume a comment is trying to support one of two sides of an argument. For example, it might be critiquing the general way the argument has been framed (where the line’s been drawn between the two sides), or the method of making the argument (if everyone is sitting around looking at some obviously incomplete data and trying to tweak it to push their point, it is worth pointing out that whatever conclusion the group comes to is probably meaningless). Or it could just the a bit vague and hard to interpret.
- Hizonner 2y agoI was there. You know the most far-out thing I remember in sci-fi from when I was a kid? Some guy was on his way to start in the Space Patrol Academy or whatever, and his phone rang. Like this 18 year old kid was gonna be carrying a phone around with him everywhere. I mean, sure, nuclear rockets, you can see how to do that, but some kind of nationwide radiophone system? Anyway, 2 to 20 is only about a 90 percent confidence interval. It could get stalled by power or space demands.
- lm28469 2y agoI was there when musk said we'd have fully self driving tesla in 2 year, in 2021. I was there when he said we'll be back on mars in 2025, I was there when uber said they will buy every single car tesla can manufacture by the year 2020. It's all bullshit, how can people fall from it, and keep falling for it over and over and over ?
- Hizonner 2y agoKnow what? I believed none of those things, because they were obvious stupid bullshit. It turns out you have to actually think.
- lm28469 2y agoI think you're mistaking _thinking_ for _believing_ and _wishful thinking_ sprinkled with a bit of _wild guessing_
- Hizonner 2y agoI assure you that I don't wish for some of the outcomes I think are reasonably likely. ... and in general I think you're mistaking me for somebody who's spent a lot less time on these issues.
- lm28469 2y agoThe line went up a bit faster in the last 5 years so the line must continue to go up exponentially ? That's about the only "logical" way to get from LLMs to AGI. Replacing "the best of us" in 2 years... come on, even Altman isn't getting that high on his own supply > I think you're mistaking me for somebody who's spent a lot less time on these issues. Unless you're God himself I doubt you can predict the future of events that never happened in the past with any kind of accuracy. There have been thousands of people like you with prophecies of AGI in the next "10 years" since computers are a thing.
- mkagenius 2y agoI am not sure what's the point of predictions, almost every one seems to enjoy predicting like this. Nothing is certain in these things - nobody guessed deepseek.
- Hizonner 2y agoPredictions inform plans and actions.
- yoyohello13 2y agoThere is no action here. Either AI get so good everyone becomes slaves to Sam Altman or it doesn’t and we just continue on using the new tools.
- Hizonner 2y agoYou're 19 and choosing a college major. Should you study languages in the hope of working as a translator? > slaves to Sam Altman Um, what would Sam Altman need slaves for, when the AI does everything better, potentially for less than the cost of feeding them? And, in that scenario, Sam Altman had better have a pretty good Robot Army(TM) to protect him from the torches and pitchforks. It's also a pretty significant assumption to think that a giant network of truly intelligent machines, robotically running an entire world economy, keeps listening to what Sam Altman wants. Maybe for a while.
- yoyohello13 2y agoSam Altman is just a stand in for whatever ROBOT_CONTROLLING_CORP_OVERLORD comes out on top.
- Hizonner 2y agoOK, substitute your favorite overlord in what I said and it's still the same.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]